Humid but dry
Posted by Ryan
Oklahoma City is in the throes of tornado season. with the threat for thunderstorms on Sunday residents certainly should have been keeping an eye to the sky for threatening weather. They probably also recognized that the dew point temperatures, in the upper 60s, were providing a ripe environment for strong thunderstorms, seeing as how many most Sooners have experienced. And then... the storms didn't happen. It stayed hot, humid and most of all, quiet in OKC. Everyone was clustered near the same score, but Accuweather was a hair better.
Actuals: Saturday, High 89, Low 63
Sunday - High 87, Low 68
Grade: C
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma to Greenville, South Carolina
Posted by Ryan
It's actually further than I thought to get from Oklahoma City to Greenville. It will be a nearly complete 2 day drive and almost 1000 miles. The average rate of speed will be 63mph, slowed, perhaps, by treks through Memphis, Birmingham and Atlanta.
DAY ONE
A combination of factors will influence the day on Sunday. First, a cold front moving through the Plains may set off some isolated morning storms over eastern Oklahoma, generally between OKC and the Arkansas border. There will be a prolonged period of dry weather as we move through Arkansas, but afternoon convection thanks to return flow off the Gulf may work it's way as far north as Memphis. I think the heaviest of the wet weather won't make it past Jackson, but the threat is still there, so, you know, I gotta mention it. The day will end not far outside of Memphis in Holly Springs, Mississippi.
DAY TWO
It's going to be another touch and go day, with scattered showers and storms pretty much anywhere you go. Well, everywhere you go between Holly Springs and Greenville. The heaviest rain looks like it will be in Alabama, east of Birmingham, but I wouldn't put any stock into that. I would plan on the threat being someone lessened when we are east of Athens, Georgia, however. Still, bring an umbrella to upstate South Carolina.
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posted by Ryan
This seems the right time of year to put together a forecast for Oklahoma, right? IT's tornado chasin' season!
At 552PM, CT, Oklahoma City was reporting a temperature of 82 degrees. A dry line extended through western Oklahoma, with cooler dew points allowing for temperatures to climb all the way to the mid 90s on the western side of the dry line. Additionally, the dry line has produced strong thunderstorms, particularly to the southwest, including a cell southwest of Lawton. A severe thunderstorm watch was posted in southern Oklahoma and part of central Texas. The severe weather didn't appear to be a threat for Oklahoma City.
The dry line will hover through the center of the state through the weekend, however it will remain fairly inactive. Instead, dry dew points will move into Oklahoma City, and temperatures will be allowed to warm dramatically. As much of the southern US has experienced, central Oklahoma will see a an early dose of summer, with hot, dry air settling in tomorrow. A bit better organization with a system moving through the Northern Plains on Sunday will redirect flow, and the dry line will again set up west of OKC, meaning a return of humidity.
Tomorrow - Hot and dry. High 92, Low 71
Sunday - Humidity returns, still warm, High 89. Low 71
TWC: Tomorrow - Sunny High 94, Low 67
Sunday - Isolated T-Storms High 90, Low 71
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny, very warm and humid with the temperature approaching the record of 94 set in 1940 High 92, Low 70
Sunnday - Breezy and humid with times of clouds and sun High 89, Low 71
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 93, Low 70
Sunday - A 10 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 88, Low 70
WB: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy High 94, Low 70
Sunday - Partly cloudy with slight chance of thunderstorms. High 87, Low 70
The models were very different, but everyone came to approximately the same conclusions. The NAM, which most people discounted, wanted a high in the mid 90s (compared to about 90 from the GFS) tomorrow, while calling for a high of 80 on Sunday (compared, again, to a 90 from the GFS). These forecasts could totally bust, especially if the dry line doesn't retrograde to where we think it will on Sunday. Radar shows the cell southwest of Lawton. It looks beastly.
Cool wind in their face
Posted by Ryan
I had made a note of how cool Weatherbug was going with the forecast high on Tuesday in Oklahoma City, as everyone else was at least 6 degrees warmer with our forecasts. With developing systems to the south and the north, howling winds to 35mph brought in temperatures that were a lot closer to Weatherbug's forecast high of 39 than I would have ever expected. The temperature only climbed to 43, which put WB in a much better position than I thought they would be. Victoria Weather, however, was the only outlet that properly forecast the drizzle they saw on Monday, which was the deciding factor in this forecast.
Actuals: Monday - Trace of rain, High 59, Low 28
Tuesday - High 43, Low 31
Grade: C
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posted by Ryan
Ah tornado alley. A storm chaser's favorite place, thought it doesn't look very chaseable this week.
At 1252PM, CT, Oklahoma City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 42 degrees. Oklahoma City was lying north of a developing system over eastern Texas. This little trough was associated with a vorticity maximum in the upper levels. A stronger jet is emerging from the northern Rockies, driving southeastward to meet this low, eventually amplifying it and merging it with a broader, thought less severe area of low pressure moving through the northern tier, generating yet another east coast system.
Before it arrives there though, the system looks to bypass Oklahoma City to the south. The broader system associated with the stronger jet may bring a few rain showers late in the day tomorrow, but generally speaking, both systems will leave the region unaffected compared to where they will be at their worst. The parent jet will eventually lead to some stout ridging across the south central Plains, but lingering moisture is going to be trapped near the surface Tuesday, bringing on some cloudy skies.
Tomorrow - Late rain showers, High 55, Low 33
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy and cooler High 48, Low 32
TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy High 57, Low 33
Tuesday - A few morning showers High 46, Low 37
AW: Tomorrow - Considerable cloudiness and not as cool High 55, Low 31
Tuesday - Partial Sunshine, High 46, Low 33
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy High 54, Low 33
Tuesday - Mostly sunny High 45, low 33
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy High 54, Low 33
Tuesday - Partly cloudy. Cooler. High 39, Low 33
Wow, Weatherbug really wants to cool OKC off, don't they? Satellite shows a fairly impressive blob of moisture developing over Texas.
Feature Forecast: Jon Slater, Fox 25 News, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posted by Ryan
Surprise! We have a very special guest, Jon Slater from Oklahoma City, weather capital of the world who has been kind enough to give us a hand with a two day forecast for his home city. Without further ado, here is Mr. Slater!
I'm Jon Slater the meteorologist for FOX 25 News @9 and 10pm in Oklahoma City. I'm a weather fanatic and have been my entire life! Growing up near New York City I developed a passion for the weather at a very early age. I spent most of my childhood watching the weather out my bedroom window. My parents thought I was crazy! By the time I was a freshman in High School I new I wanted to study the weather and become a meteorologist. Went to the University of Oklahoma to get my degree in meteorology because the school is located smack dab in the middle of Tornado Alley. After graduation in 1987 I decided to try TV weather and 23 years later I'm still doing this stuff.
Here's the forecast for OKC....
After 5 days in a row of 100 or hotter weather a weak Summer cold front is moving in tonight. Expect a few scattered t'storms with a low near 77 and winds becoming light and variable.
On Thursday a very small break in the high heat. Partly cloudy with a 30% chance of t'storms highs near 95 with a north wind at 10 mph. Yes, 95 is a cool down for us!
Then the extreme heat comes right back for Friday with sunny skies and highs near 98.
Over the weekend look for sizzlin sunshine with highs near 101 both Saturday and Sunday. The heat wave continues all next week too!
Stay cool, Jon
Thanks Jon! It's always interesting to hear the perspective of another meteorologist. I wonder how hard it would have been to get a hold of him during May?
(Thursday's scheduled forecast for Louisville will be moved to Friday)
Dodging the severe weather
Posted by Ryan
It's been a rough couple of days for the southern US in terms of severe weather. In Oklahoma City, however, they got lucky. It didn't rain or storm in Oklahoma City on Wednesday, and they avoided any severe storms yesterday. Temperatures were down, which may have prevented the genesis of strong storms in their immediate area, but the bigger deal was that storms developed further west than anticipated and began to die out overnight. Accuweather and The Weather Channel had the top forecasts for the better than expected weather.
Actuals: Wednesday - High 75, Low 57
Thursday - .17 inches of rain, High 75, Low 61
Grade: C
Naples, Florida to Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posted by Ryan
Our trip will take a little under three days as we traverse the suddenly active Southeast. If anything, we'll be headed the 1404 miles to a somewhat less humid area in Oklahoma City. Perhaps we're just interested in shipping oranges to Oklahoma. Anyways, we'll be able to cover 506 miles on the first two day at 63.3mph. So let's box up those oranges!
DAY ONE
A weak band of showers is still moistening the Florida Peninsula, but it's on it's way out of town. We'll likely see some red skies as we wake up, but only partly cloudy skies when we take off. We will be problem free all the way through Florida and then on to Georgia, where we will hop off the main road. Our day will end in Richland, Georgia, which I am sure is a beautiful town south of Columbus.
DAY TWO
The drive will be easy again on Thursday, but not quite as pleasant as the drive on Wednesday. There will be a chance for some showers and thunderstorms as we approach the Memphis area. Call it Holly Springs, Mississippi where we run into some wet weather, which will take us through the Memphis metro. We'll likely be out of it, however, by the time we reach Forrest City, Arkansas. Let's not push our luck though, and call it a day in Carlisle, which is east of Little Rock.
DAY THREE
If, and that's only an if, we see a thunderstorm on Friday, it will likely be between Little Rock and Fort Smith, and there is a decent enough chance that we should be wary that the storms will be strong. It's a well wooded stretch of road through Arkansas, so we probably won't get too much warning when a squall line is coming, not as much as we would in the Plains, so be sure to stay tuned to local radio and not the iPod until we make our way to Sallisaw, where we should be out of the woods all the way to Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posted by Ryan
A late night forecast for OKC, and we are in the midst of tornado season. How fun!
At 1052PM, CT, Oklahoma City was reporting cloudy skies and a temperature of 55 degrees. A perturbed jet over the Gulf and northern Mexico as generated several somewhat weak disturbances that have swung from the high plains to the Gulf and into the Atlantic. Currently, the next wave is developing over the Oklahoma Panhandle and is generating thunderstorms over northern Texas.
The southerly jet is expected to shift off east, taking support from the thunderstorms over the southern Plains, however this will be motivated by a developing closed upper low over the Rockies. A stationary to warm front will develop through Kansas, indicative of the warm, moist air moving into the Oklahoma City area over the next two days. Showers will not be widespread, but they will be possible in the afternoon each day, with stronger thunderstorms becoming a concern late on Thursday.
Tomorrow - Partly to mostly cloudy, with passing showers and thunderstorm, High 71, Low 51
Thursday - Partly to mostly cloudy, with isolated severe storms before midnight, High 76, Low 59
TWC: Tomorrow - A few showers in the morning with scattered thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon. High 71, Low 54
Thursday - Partly cloudy with a stray thunderstorm. High 76, Low 60
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 74, low 53
Thursday - Mostly cloudy and breezy; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm High 78, Low 60
NWS: Tomorrow - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy high 70, Low 52
Thursday - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms High 73, Low 53
Thursday - Mostly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms High 77, Low 59
A look at the satellite shows the looming nastiness over the Rockies.
