When we forecast for Ogden last weekend, I noted specifically that I thought something broke at Forecast.io. Little did I know, it was the rest of us that had the issues. While many of us expected the large system moving into town to bring rain, potentially mountain snow and colder temperatures, Forecast.io didn’t go nearly as cold. Neither did Ogden, as it turned out, and FIO nailed the first three verifying times. Eventually, temperatures fell off quicker than Forecast.io expected, but by that point, they had a commanding lead in the forecast chase. Actuals: Sunday, High 74, Low 43 Monday – .38 inches of rain, High 63, Low 43
Every once in a while, I find myself surprised by the map, and today is one of those times. Ogden is nearly due west of Springfield, and will take a long two days to get to. The mileage is 1,304, and we will take care of 542 of those miles at about 67.7mph on Monday, with the real work coming on Tuesday. If you consider road tripping to be work, of course.
DAY ONE (Monday)
Did someone say “road trip weather”? No? That’s not something a normal person says? Well, in that case, I will say it. It’s good road trip weather in the middle of the country, and that will continue tomorrow, with high pressure and temperatures that aren’t too hot, aren’t too cold. We’ll navigate through Missouri and into Nebraska, making it past Lincoln to Shelton for our one overnight of the trip.
DAY TWO (Tuesday) It’s always nice when Day Two is a Tuesday, because it’s significantly less confusing. OK, maybe only for my simple brain. The rest of the drive through Nebraska is going to be serene, but a short waved trough moving through the Rockies will make things significantly more interesting. Rain in the low elevation and snow at higher spots will be seen from Cheyenne westward. We’ll start to emerge from the wet and snow from Rock Springs on westward, and sunshine will return by the time we hit Ogden. Or at least, it would if we arrived when the sun was still up.
I consider myself a geography aficionado. It’s something I am good at, but frankly, I constantly confuse Ogden and Provo. Ogden, if you were curious, is north of Salt Lake City.
At 653PM, MT, Ogden was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. There really weren’t many clouds anywhere across the western United States as residents try to reclaim some autumn after an early shot of snow last weekend. A fast moving upper level low will rotate through the central Pacific Coast towards Utah, bringing about some clouds to the region, with high elevation snow becoming likely again. Precipitation will arrive on Monday morning, and down by the Lake, Ogden will see only rain. There should be some improvement after sunset, but only at the end of a rainy afternoon. Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 41 Monday – Rain through the daylight hours. High 57, Low 42
TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds, High 70, Low 42 Monday – Cloudy with rain developing later in the day. High 57, Low 44
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 69, low 40 Monday – Cooler with clouds and breaks of sun; breezy in the morning with a thunderstorm in spots followed by afternoon showers High 58, Low 41
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 40 Monday – Rain, mainly after 1pm High 56, Low 42
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 67, Low 41 Monday – Breezy. Partly sunny with a slight chance of rain in the morning, then cloudy with rain in the afternoon. High 56, Low 43
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 42 Monday – Mostly cloudy with light rain, High 56, Low 50
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 74, Low 43 Monday – Rain until night, starting again in the afternoon, high 63, Low 49
I’m not sure what broker at Forecast.io, but they sure have different forecasts. Forecast lows are all non-standard for Monday, except Weather Nation who don’t have hourly forecasts that deep into the night. The satellite is pretty empty
Google recommends two routes between Ogden and Duluth. One of them only has Fargo as the largest town between the two destinations. We’re going to take a more southerly route, in which we will pass through the Twin Cities. It’s a little less lonely. The drive will take 2 1/2 days and cover 1381 miles. Our pace will be 67.1mph, which means that the first two days will intend to conclude after 536.7 miles. Hope you like country music, because I bet there isn’t much else on the radio.
DAY ONE (Friday) The worst place to get stuck in the weather is the mountains. Slick roads plus climbs and drops and it can get a little dicey. Well, we are in Utah, and they don’t like dice. There will be high pressure in the northern Rockies tomorrow, holding a developing area of low pressure up in Canada while it warms up along our route. We will get to the sleepy eastern Wyoming town of Mule Creek, which is north of Lusk.
DAY TWO (Saturday) Another advantage to the southern route, aside from seeing actual human beings, is that the area of low pressure moving through Canada won’t carry enough cold air or momentum to intercept us as we pass through South Dakota or southwest Minnesota. We’ll make it to Mountain Lake, Minnesota with dark clouds with no rain on the northwestern horizon as we end the day.
DAY THREE (Sunday) If there is any precipitation with the passage of this cold front, it will be overnight as we recline in Mountain Lake. The cold front will be through southern Minnesota, so cool conditions will return as we head towards Duluth. Duluth is a very nice town, and because of Lake Superior it is always a little cool. Bring a jacket!