Tag Archives: Ogden

A valley floor

Forecasting for the intermountain west should be challenging, and last week, our look at Ogden was indeed a bit rough around the edges. The high temperature forecast was spot on, and there was no rain, as we all expected, but those low temperatures. Sheesh. Those lows ended up at least 10 degrees under the forecast, and that was true for every one of our forecasting outlets, for both days of the forecast period. Sorry, Utah. Weatherbug had the top forecast, for whatever that’s worth.
Actuals Tuesday the 11th, High 86, Low 48

Wednesday the 12th High 80, Low 47

Grade D

Ogden, Utah

There is always discussion about the coasts, and in the summer, we worry about tornadoes for the middle of the country. Attention is difficult to come by for the mountains in the middle. Whats going on in that part of the world? 

At 853AM, MT, Ogden was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 65 degrees. High pressure is entrenched over the inter-mountain West, with warm, dry air leading to some red flag warnings for the mountains away from the Salt Lake Basin.
There is a poorly angled upper level trough north of the Canadian border, extending into the north Pacific, and it is slowly trying to work its way south into the western US, but the eastward progress is going to slow down dramatically, to the point that any substantial change to the weather in Ogden should not be anticipated, but temperatures will be a bit cooler thanks to a refreshing breeze. 
Tomorrow – Hazy but mostly sunny, High 86, Low 61
Wednesday – Cooler and still sunny, High 80, Low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 86, Low 61
Wednesday – Sunny skies. High 80, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 87, Low 60
Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine High 82, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 61
Wednesday – Sunny, High 83, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny, High 81, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 88, Low 61
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 88, Low 61
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 83, Low 61

Well that doesn’t sound bad at all, just so long as the threat for fires isn’t realized in the Wasatch. Aside from some of the peaks in the south, here is a crystal clear satellite image. 

Weather Wayback, Ogden’s Halloween Heat

When we looked at Ogden back at the end of October, it seemed as though autumn was preparing to return to northern Utah, with temperatures in the 50s. But then, November 1st rolled around and the temperature spiked back into the mid 60s, waylaying fall for at least another couple of days. Nearly all found the forecast to be easy to manage, even if the climatology was a little askew. Accuweather had the narrow victory.
Actuals October 31st, High 53, Low 34
November st, High 66, Low 39

Grade A-B

Ogden, Utah, to Lexington, Kentucky

We’re off for a fun little road trip today. The drive from Utah to Kentucky takes the familiar route along I-80 through most of Nebraska, but then swings us further south, toward I-70 for the second half of the trip. We’re going to forecast for the whole dang thing, one way or another. It’s a 3 day trek, covering 1650 miles. This means that the daily goal will be 550 miles, right on the nose. I think we can do it.


DAY ONE (Friday)

The beginning of July is one of the best times of year to drive through the mountains. You won’t have to worry about snow, for one thing, but also, wherever trees grow, they will be at their greenest of the year, before the daily sunshine scorches any available sun. There are some smoky forest fires in Colorado, which may provide a haze to the drive, however high pressure over the Plains is receding from the Rockies, and the air will begin moving and the haze might dissipate. The additional bonus of ridge pulling away will limit the convergence at the surface, and thunderstorms will likely be non existent from Ogden to Lodgepole, in the Nebraska Panhandle.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
While high pressure is moving away from the Rockies, it isn’t moving much further than that, remaining in the Plains and Mississippi Valley. This means the rest of the drive through Nebraska, and we’ll be able to sneak south towards Kansas City in comfortable weather for this time of year. We’ll make it to Odessa, Missouri, east of KC, for our daily stop.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
As the high pressure begins to break down later in the weekend, Gulf moisture will begin to filter north through Mississippi towards the tail end of our route. We’ll make it to St. Louis with no problems, and there won’t REALLY be a problem for the rest of the route, just a few isolated spits of rain through southern Illinois and into western Kentucky. If any really heavy rain falls, it would likely be right as we cross the Mississippi River, but we will probably slip past there before that is a real threat. Lexington will be returning to hot, sticky conditions as we arrive in town.

None of the wheat, all of the chaff

The Inter-Mountain West is presently being put through a fairly early bout with the monsoon. Most of the activity has been confined to the Rocky Mountain peaks, but some of that convective activity billowed back into the Ogden area. It was enough to keep temperatures cool — at least cooler than some outlets thought it would be. Some of those clouds came with clouds, but there were only a couple of drops on Tuesday, really messing with the final veryification numbers. The Weather Channel drew level with Weatherbug, thanks to precipitation issues.
Actuals: Monday – High 78, Low 53
Tuesday – .01 inches of rain, High 69. Low 55

Grade: A-C

Ogden, Utah

The forecast for the night takes us to the second largest city on the shores of the Great Salt Lake, Ogden, Utah. Summer is coming to the Great Basin as much as anywhere else, so what does that mean in northern Utah?

At 1153PM, MT, Ogden was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 57 degrees. The afternoon was marked by scattered showers and thunderstorms across the interior west, though most of that activity was found in higher terrains north and east of Ogden. The thunderstorm activity is a sure sign that the seasonal monsoon was in effect, a fair bit earlier than it is usually expected.
A cut off area of circulation at the upper levels is going to emerge over the next 12-18 hours over California, orphaned from the main jet after initiating as a sharp trough along the Pacific Coast. The jet streak will flame out by the end of the day Tuesday, but not before rotating northeast through eastern Utah. This little feature will enhance showers and storms along the eastern face of the Rockies, and over the Sierras tomorrow, but it will wait until the very end of the day on Tuesday to have an impact on Ogden, thanks to the distance from any real moisture sources. Nevertheless, there should be a rumble of thunder on Tuesday evening as a result of our cut off low.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 54
Tuesday – Afternoon showers and thunderstorms, High 76, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny along with a few clouds. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 78, Low 55
Tuesday – Partly cloudy with afternoon showers or thunderstorms High 69, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine; breezy in the afternoon (PM thunder) High 78, Low 54
Tuesday – Times of clouds and sun, a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 74, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny High 79, Low 53
Tuesday – A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning, then becoming partly cloudy, High 77, Low 53
Tuesday – A slight chance of rain showers in the morning, then a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 56

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 79, Low 56
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 76, Low 56

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until night. High 76, Low 54
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy until evening. High 74, Low 56

Satellite isn’t really showing any convective cloud cover. Totally tranquil at night in the Rockies, but it might get a little more active through the beginning of the week.

Ogden, Utah

Today we head off to Ogden, UT, surrounded by the picturesque Rocky Mountains on one side and the Great Salt Lake on the other. Will we close out the month of October with beautiful weather to match the scenery?

At 1020pm MDT, the temperature at Ogden, UT was 45 degrees under fair skies. Low pressure found over the Desert Southwest will be pushing through the Four Corners area and into the Central Plains over the next couple of days. Widespread high clouds are found over the region tonight but those will be shifting out of the region with the low pressure throughout the day Tuesday. Weak high pressure shifts overhead for Wednesday bringing warmer temps and mostly clear skies to the area. Looks like it’s shaping up to be a nice couple of days!

Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 55, Low 34.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and warmer. High 65, Low 41.

TWC: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 55, Low 33.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 65, Low 43.

AW: Tuesday: Partial sunshine. High 54, Low 34.
Wednesday: Pleasant and warmer. High 64, Low 39.

NWS: Tuesday: Sunny. High 54, Low 31.
Wednesday: Sunny. High 63, Low 37.

WB: Tuesday: Sunny. High 53, Low 32.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 63, Low 38.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 54, Low 31.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 63, Low 37.

FIO: Tuesday: Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 53, Low 33.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 60, Low 37.

Some cirrus clouds are found over the region as a system starts to get going over the Four Corners region. Luckily for us, these clouds will be shifting out of the region tomorrow and clears out for midweek!

Fuzzy Math

I’m not 100% sure about how this is allowed to stand up in the permanent record. The low on Friday in Ogden will forever be 25 degrees, while on Saturday, the high will forever be known as 23 degrees. This is because an observation was taken at 1153PM, and not another until 1253, but every right thinking human must recognize that as the calendar flipped, it didn’t immediately drop 2 degrees, right? It was a pretty strange and wild couple of days in Ogden, but not that strange. Friday started with rain that turned to thunder, and was chased out by snow. By Saturday, it was all gone, and residents needed only worry about staying warm, rather than what kind of precipitation was prepared to smother their homestead. Accuweather ended up with the top forecast, whether or not the high on Saturday was 23 or 25, thanks to having the top precipitation forecast.
Actuals: Friday – .78″ of precipitation in rain/thunder/snow, High 46, Low 25
Saturday – High 25, Low 16

Grade: A-D

Ogden, Utah

Things are going to really go down hill for a lot of the country as we move towards the weekend. It’s too bad, really, we had such a nice autumn.

At 853PM, MT, Ogden was reporting a temperature of 43 degrees with light rain. There was precipitation falling across the Salt Lake region, with snow falling in the mountains, but rain at most of the observation points in the area, which, by and large, are near the surface.  This precipitation is associated with a warm front attached to a strong area of low pressure presently centered near Lake Tahoe.
The feature will move quickly to the east, arriving in Northern Utah by tomorrow morning, with rain picking up in intensity and volume through that time. The main characteristic of this feature is going to be the cold air that it draws in. As such, expect rain to change to snow in Ogden by tomorrow afternoon, though the low will pass close enough that most of the rain will fall overnight tonight into tomorrow morning, and only a little bit of snow is expected. The trough parenting this storm at the upper levels is tightening up, and the system will begin to move quickly with temperatures plummeting through the day. Lingering flurries will continue into the early morning on Saturday, with a chilly afternoon to follow.
Tomorrow – Rain through the day, with a change to snow in the evening, High 42, Low 21
Saturday – A few early flurries, High 21, Low 13

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain early…then remaining cloudy with showers in the afternoon High 45, Low 22
Saturday – Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds High 22, Low 13

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with periods of rain High 46, Low 24
Saturday – Some sun, then turning cloudy and much colder High 24, Low 15

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain (snow late) High 46, Low 25
Saturday – Early snow, then mostly sunny, High 25, Low 14

WB: Tomorrow – Brezy, rain, High 49, Low27
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 27 low 15

WN: Tomorrow – MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH WINTRY MIX High 46, Low 25
Saturday – Partly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers High 25, Low 14

FIO: Tomorrow – Mixed precipitation throughout the day and breezy in the afternoon. High 41, Low 16
Saturday – Light snow until morning. High 18, Low 3

Well. This is certainly going to be one of the more interesting verifications we’ve had in a while. I mean, Saturday alone, there is a 10+ degree difference in forecast lows. It’s going to be crazy! right now, however, it’s just rainy.

Logjam Out West

When weather is overall pretty quiet, it comes down to temperature forecasts to determine who will win. In this case, everybody was neck and neck when figuring out what was going to transpire out in Ogden. It was a 3-way tie for the win between VW, NWS, and WB. Overall, everybody was within 2 points of each other. Well done all around!

Saturday: High 66, Low 42.
Sunday: High 71, Low 46.
Forecast Grade: B