Tag Archives: Lynchburg

Winter can wait

As the weekend wound to a close, a big swath of rain was moving through the interior parts of Virginia. It seemed like the amount of precipitation was outpacing the models, so I figured I would be a little more pessimistic than what the models had in mind. Well, great news, for Lynchburg, though not as great for Victoria-Weather, the clouds cleared out quickly and the rain ended soon after the forecast was put together. As a result, those that more closely adhered to the guidance were much more successful. Accuweather narrowly earned victory with their warm forecast, that almost matched the actual warmth that Lynchburg enjoyed.
Actuals: Monday – High 61, Low 30
Tuesday – High 65, Low 34

Grade: C-D

Lynchburg, Virginia

Happy Sunday, everyone, shall we start the week off with a little knowledge about the week ahead?

At 354PM, ET, Lynchburg was reporting a temperature of 42 degrees with overcast skies and light rain, Radar was awash with light rain throughout the region, and it appears as though Lynchburg will be unable to break out of the much for a while. Interestingly, and despite the rain seen regionwide, model guidance doesn’t have much inkling of the precipitation ingested into the forecast, however the vorticity maximum attributable for the rain in the area looks to dampen  out by Monday morning, suggesting that rain will lighten up by that time as well.
The jet structure that allowed the development of the wave bringing rain to the region today will level off over the next 48 hours, producing a laminar, west to east flow across the region. This should suspend any threat for rain in Lynchburg, however it will keep some mid to high level overcast in the region throughout the forecast period. The good news is that sustained westerlies will help maintain slightly warmer temperatures than is usually expected this time of year.
Tomorrow – Overcast with some early rain, High 56, Low 36
Tuesday – Overcast, but even warmer, High 61, Low 41

TWC: Intervals of clouds and sunshine, High 59,, Low 33
Tuesday – Partly cloudy.  High 64, Low 41

AW: Tomorrow – Not as cool with intervals of clouds and sun High 60, Low 34
Tuesday – Some sun, then turning cloudy and warm High 63, Low 39

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 34
Tuesday – Mostly sunny,  High 63, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 38
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 60, Low 43

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 58, Low 34
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 63, Low 40

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 61, Low 38
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 62, Low 42

Clearly, I am less optimistic, perhaps because the model guidance doesn’t give me a lot of confidence that the rain is being well handled. I mean, look at this radar!

The big chill

All this attention is paid to the warm temperatures during the day when the sun us out in the spring time. It reached 70 degrees in Lynchburg on Sunday and Monday. What folks failed to account for was temperatures dropping to the 30s at night. IT still gets chilly when there aren’t any clouds to trap the heat at night! These low temperatures drew the forecasts afoul. The National Weather Service and WeatherNation lead the way, but it wasn’t a very good performance.
Actuals: Sunday – High 70, Low 39
Monday – High 71, Low 35

Grade: C-D

Lynchburg, Virginia to Green Bay, Wisconsin

Another two day road trip for the forecast pool. This time, we are going back west, as we head for the shores of Lake Michigan. It’s a two day trip between these two towns, covering  933 miles. Unlike the trip from earlier today, our second day will be the short one. Our first day will cover 508.9 miles at a pace of 63.6mph. Let’s see what life is like driving the other direction

DAY ONE (Monday)

This is going to be a nice start to our drive. High pressure is dominating the eastern third of the United States. It is solid, and unimpeachable. We will have no choice but to enjoy the warm weather and sunshine all the way to Greenfield, Indiana.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
The rest of the drive is going to be a little bit more challenging. The tail of a cold front appended to a broad swath of low pressure moving into Hudson Bay will stall right over Indiana. Rain will be heaviest right away, as we pass through Indianapolis, with lighter showers continuing to the south side of Chicago. Undoubtedly, this will slow us way down, but by the time we pass the formerly known as Sears Tower, we will be breaking out into some cooler sunshine. It won’t be nearly as warm as it was ahead of the front, but at least Green Bay will be dry upon our arrival.

Waco, Texas to Lynchburg, Virginia

Everything is telling me that we are planning a road trip at absolutely the right time, through absolutely the right territory. It’s been a warm February thus far, but part of that is owing to an active pattern, drawing warm air north. We’re going to take two days to drive from Texas to Virginia, covering 1248 miles. The first day will be the shorter day, of 8 hours, with the second lasting 10. We will average a pace of 68.5mph, with the 8 hour day accounting for 547.6 miles of our journey.

DAY ONE (Monday)

OK, so, immediately I can tell you I was wrong. We will not be departing for Lynchburg between systems, as an area of low pressure moving through the Dakotas will be dangling a cold front through the Plains, with the tail of this boundary slicing into Texas, drawing in moisture off the Gulf of Mexico and touching off heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms as early as midnight and continuing until sunrise when we depart Waco. The line of showers and storms will extend north to Kansas. The line of storms will move slower than we will, which means that as we continue eastward, we will eventually get out ahead of the line. Our trek through east Texas will be quite stormy, though. The best bet for breaching that line will be somewhere around Mount Pleasant, Texas, but there could be some showers east towards Texarkana. The good news is that the afternoon drive through Arkansas will bee dry as we arrive under high pressure. We’ll make it to sunny Memphis for our pit stop. Hopefully, we have a bit more good luck on Tuesday.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
The area of low pressure in the Plains will move towards Hudson Bay, which will slow the cold front own. A secondary area of low pressure will develop at the tail of the front in the Gulf of Mexico, which will stem the flow of moisture into the southern United States. This is good news, because it means the drive through Tennessee and Virginia will be dry and mostly sunny. There might be some overcast overnight in Lynchburg, accompanied by some drizzle, but that’s not so bad. We’re going to be done driving, after all.

Lynchburg, Virginia

We are getting a heck of a backlog on the forecast verification department, because we are peeling forecasts off in a rapid fire manner. Let’s see what we can see out of Lynchburg.

At 354PM, ET, Lynchburg was reporting a temperature of 70 degrees with clear skies. Where there was a light west wind, there were a few clouds, but generally speaking, the state of Virginia was enjoying southerly flow and clear skies ahead of diminutive wave moving northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley. Guidance suggests there should be more precipitation from Tennessee south to the Gulf Coast than is actually materializing, as weak upper level support charges quickly to the northeast. Instead, there are only a few light showers showing up in western North Carolina.
As this feature continues to march to the east, expect the northern half of the precipitation to be caught in the Smokey Mountains and rain out, while the southern portion of the energy will revitalize offshore upon encountering the tail of a cold front extending from Newfoundland. This boundary will usher activity out of the region quickly, with a sharp ridge of high pressure building for Sunday afternoon, and continuing through Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy early, clearing, High 68, Low 47
Monday – Sunny, High 69, Low 41

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 71, Low 48
Monday – Sunny. High 70, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow- Mostly sunny and pleasantly warm with the temperature approaching the record of 76 set in 1939 High 73, Low 45
Monday – Mostly sunny and remaining warm High 71, Low 43

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, High 72, Low 46
Monday – Sunny, High 70, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 52
Monday – Sunny, High 69, Low 44

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 72, Low 46
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 73, Low 48
Monday – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 72, Low 48

Obviously, this one is going to come down to temperatures. The deciding factor will likely be those clouds tomorrow morning. Will they keep it even warmer than expected? Will they keep high temperatures at bay? Only one way to find out. Satellite shows that tumult to the west that is going to be falling apart quickly.

Lynchburg, Virginia to Great Falls, Montana

It’s probably too late to see many fall colors en route, but it’s the beginning of the ski season, so a trip to western Montana doesn’t sound like a bad idea! The drive is going to last us 4 days, covering 2094 miles. That means we will average 523.5 miles a day at a pace of 65.4mph. That’s a little slow, but that’s what you get for traveling through mountains and Chicago.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
It’s going to be a rocky start on our trip to the Rockies. A very active cold front is forecast to be descending from the Appalachians as we get a move on from Lynchburg. At the very least, we will start the day with very heavy rain, and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms. That heavy weather will last us until we reach the West Virginia state line, but there will be lingering showers until we pass through Charleston. From that point forward, we will be within the dry slot. Enjoy Ohio in all it’s glory, I guess. We’ll make it to the east side of Indianapolis before the day comes to a close.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
Overnight, the cold front bringing us rain on Tuesday night will reform over the Tennessee Valley. We’ll wake up to a rainy, breezy day in eastern Indianapolis, but will get a bit of a respite by the time we reach Lafayette. It should be mostly dry through Chicago and Rockford, but some of the backwash associated with the area of low pressure will be producing some light snow showers in Minnesota and Wisconsin, which we will encounter first somewhere between Janesville and Madison. These flurries might slow traffic in the bigger towns, but winds will be light, and it won’t accumulate enough to really slow us down out in the open country of western Wisconsin. We’ll call it a night in Elk Mound, halfway between Eau Claire and Menomonie.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
The unfortunate thing about an unfurling swath of low pressure when it’s cold out is that the effort to create clouds and flurries is so much less than it is to create clouds and drizzle when it’s warmer. With no impetus for this modicum of instability to clear out, we will be threatened by flurries in borth Minnesota and North Dakota. We’ll stop for the day in New Salem, North Dakota, west of Bismarck

DAY FOUR (Friday)
Those flurries will continue off and on overnight while we sleep in New Salem. But then, the Rocky Mountains and good fortune will step in! High pressure will develop over the Front range, sliding south through Montana and Wyoming and ensuring our drive through one of the most desolate stretches of North America will at least be without any weather concerns. We will get to Great Falls after sunset (thanks a lot latitude) but there is a chance the moon will be peaking through the clouds.

Lynchburg, Virginia to Davenport, Iowa

We’re off on a 2 day drive into the teeth of a snow storm. The drive will cover 844 miles, running from Virginia to Iowa. The milage with this will be 63.6mph, which will mean our first day will be through after 509 miles on the road. That’s a mighty slow pace for a Google trip. We should get going then, right? To make up the time?

DAY ONE (Friday)
You know, I mentioned that we were going to be driving into the teeth of a strong system, but on Friday, the strong system we drive through will be a strong high pressure system. So, don’t worry about it, is what I’m trying to say. It should be dry, though fairly breezy through the mountain valleys of the Appalachians, and into the Ohio Valley. The day will end before we reach Indianapolis, in Shelbyville, Indiana.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
Saturday will be a bit different. Precipitation, rain, initially, will be reaching Shelbyville not long before we hit the road. The precipitation type will change over to snow somewhat slowly between Indianapolis and the Illinois border, but with a driving wind, it won’t really matter what is falling from the sky. It will splatter the windshield and make visibilities difficult. Snow may wrap up by the time we reach Peoria, or somewhere to the west, but we will be under the threat for some flurries all the way into Davenport. Whether or not we see flurries in western Illinois, it’s going to be very windy. Cold air is coming to the Quad Cities at about the same time we are.

Problematic precip patterns

Ahead of the cold front which is causing severe weather on the east coast this evening, there was a ripe, unstable pattern on the coast and through the southeast. There was a bit of ridging, though, which prevented moisture from working unabated into Lynchburg. It depended greatly on which model you trusted as to whether or not there was rain in the forecast and on which day. There was a splash of light rain on Sunday, but it cleared out on Monday, allowing temperatures to skyrocket. It came down to those precip forecasts, though, and there were a few outlets that separated from the pack. It was Weatherbug, though, that had the very best forecast of the day.
Actuals: Sunday – Trace of rain, High 90, Low 70
Monday – High 88, Low 65

GradeL C-D

Lynchburg, Virginia

Today we visit the other Virginia, the one that doesn’t have a directional moniker in its name.

At 954pm EDT, the temperature was 73 degrees at Lunchburg, VA under overcast skies. Low pressure is shifting through the Northeast US, kicking up some showers over the region late this evening. Most of the heavy activity associated with this low is found off to the north of it, so the Northeast and Southern New England will feel more of the effects of it than the Mid-Atlantic states. Broad high pressure tries to push over the region as we move into Monday, keeping most of the shower activity off to the west over the mountains. It’s going to be a hot start to summer, so if you’re going outside, be prepared!

Sunday: Isolated morning shower High 92, Low 68.
Monday: Mostly sunny and hot. High 93, Low 69.

TWC: Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 95, Low 69.
Monday: Partly cloudy, isolated showers. High 94, Low 69.

AW: Sunday: Clouds and sun; hot and humid. High 91, Low 68.
Monday: A t-storm in the afternoon. High 91, Low 67.

NWS: Sunday: Sunny and hot. High 93, Low 71.
Monday: Slight chance of thunderstorms. High 93, Low 70.

WB: Sunday: Isolated early morning shower. High 92, Low 70.
Monday: Very hot. High 93, Low 70.

WN: Sunday: Early morning isolated shower possible, then partly cloudy. High 93, Low 70.
Monday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 93, Low 70.

FIO: Sunday: Early morning rain shower, then clearing through the day. High 92, Low 69.
Monday: Partly cloudy in the morning. High 92, Low 72.

Here we see some light rain showers shifting through the area. Hopefully they should be done for the rest of the evening, then a couple of fairly dry days ahead!