Tag Archives: Lubbock

Lubbock, Texas to Ithaca, New York

Today we tackle a 1,715-mile, 4-day road trip from Western Texas to central NY. It’s going to take up parts of 2 months to accomplish! Let’s take a look at how March is going to start up on this trip.

DAY ONE

A disturbance is working its way through the Lower MS River Valley, but while the bulk of the thunderstorm activity will shift into the Deep South, some lingering shower and isolated thunderstorm activity will remain possible over the Red River Valley region during the day. We’ll avoid most of that activity as we head eastward from Lubbock to Wichita Falls then head north to Oklahoma City. We could encounter some of that shower/storm activity as we push into OK City, but will be scattered at worst as we cruise on through Oklahoma’s capital and finish up in Tulsa for the night.

DAY TWO

An area of low pressure over NE/IA is shifting towards the Great Lakes today and is expected to fire off strong to severe thunderstorms from southern MO/northern AR through IL to IN starting in the late morning hours and last through the afternoon as it pushes northeast. Luckily for us, we’ll be chasing the action in a sense, as it will stay ahead of our route as we push out of Tulsa up I-44 past Springfield to St Louis. We’ll eventually finish the day in Effingham, IL, feeling lucky as we only see some cloudy skies and maybe just a couple of stray showers throughout the day.

DAY THREE

Well, for as lucky as we were yesterday, today is going to be a rougher day. An area of low pressure will develop over N IL/IN and kick off another round of showers and thunderstorms from the OH Valley down to the Deep South. It’s going to be a soggy start to the day as we head east on I-70 towards Indianapolis and continue on towards Columbus. We’re going to be staying in the warm sector of the store during the day, so at least we won’t be hit by heavy snow (which is expected from N IL into Central MI during the day/afternoon). We’ll finish the day in Ashtabula, OH, on the shores of Lake Erie.

DAY FOUR

The low pressure system is rapidly pushing out over New England and will shift past Nova Scotia by midday. Northwesterly flow over the Lakes will kick up some lake effect snow over the typically prone areas during the day, so we’ll see some snow showers as we head out of Ashtabula in the morning. We’ll continue seeing this activity as we pass Erie and eventually into southwestern NY. Activity will finally wind down as we head further inland, trickling down to just some isolated snow showers and should mostly tail off as we finish the day in Ithaca around midday.

Storm clouds stay north

The Panhandle of Texas was a stormy place last night, with a super cell moving between Amarillo and Pampa. There wasn’t anything going on to the south of Amarillo though, except for a few clouds and temperatures that were a few degrees off the expected pace in Lubbock. Well, off of the pace I expected, anyways. The National Weather Service was very close to the mark in their forecast, and had the top forecast for the day.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 88, Low 56
Thursday – High 86, Low 63

Grade: A

Lubbock, Texas

This is the time of year that things start to get a little crazier in west Texas, as cold air more efficiently spills down the Plains and creates the clashing of air masses that we need for thunderstorms. Will it be active this week too?

At 1053AM, CT, Lubbock was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A broad surface ridge still dominated the western US, and warmer temperatures were still being seen over the Texas Panhandle. Still, at the lower levels a westerly flow was leading to an area of surface low pressure across west Texas. This dry, dusty air was leading to a dry line setting up southeast of Lubbock.
The remnants of Simon will still have enough influence as they arrive in the southwestern US to induce a weak mid-level trough. This will allow moisture to break through the dry line and spread west at the surface, allowing Lubbock to get a bit more humid, and for showers and storms to develop to the north and west. Guidance suggests that the precipitation won’t start to fill in until late Thursday night near town, however, so in Lubbock through the forecast period the only issue will be rising humidity, which shouldn’t be too terrible, as dew points are only in the upper 30s right now.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 57
Thursday – Increasing clouds, a bit cooler but more humid, High 88, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 88, Low 60
Thursday – Sunny HIgh 86, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and areas of high clouds High 88, Low 58
Thursday – Variable clouds High 86, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 88, Low 57
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 86, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 88, Low 55
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 85, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 88, Low 57
Thursday – Partly Cloudy High 86, Low 61

Looks like a pretty decent couple of days in Lubbock, and as a look ahead, most of the rain will pass to the north of Lubbock. Here is the satellite, showing the breadth of clearing over the center of the country today.

Dry and not even 90

There is one unexpected place that hasn’t been blisteringly hot this week, despite the rest of the center of the country practically melting. West Texas managed to avoid the above normal temperatures, and places like Lubbock, despite 48 hours of sun, never even hit 90. The rain from Tropical Storm Fernand managed to steer clear of Lubbock, and in the end, The Weather Channel and Accuweather tied for the top spot.
Actuals: Monday – High 89, Low 65
Tuesday – High 89, Low 63

Grade: B

Lubbock, Texas to Binghamton, New York

It’s road tripping day here at Victoria-Weather, and we will be headed on a 3 1/2 day trek from west Texas to New York. The cities at either end of our route are 1760 miles apart, and we will cover the ground at a pace of 63mph, and our three full days will be through after 506 miles or so. Let’s boogie.

DAY ONE
Lubbock
High pressure is parked over the center of the country right now, and hot, humid air is wrapping up through the western Plains. We won’t have to deal with that moisture turning into anything with our eastbound drive on Tuesday, and we will stop for the night in Vinita, Oklahoma. Find a hotel with some AC, because otherwise the humidity will be pretty close to unbearable for sleeping.

DAY TWO
It will be more of the same as we head through Missouri on Wednesday. Hot and dry weather will accompany our drive through Illinois as well, but a system moving through southern New England will trail a weak boundary through the Ohio Valley. We won’t make it all the way into the precipitation, because we are going to stop in Terre Haute, but the clouds and rain will be bubbling up over central Indiana on Wednesday evening. We can watch the radar on the local news to find out all about it.

DAY THREE
The main brunt of the system will have cleared out of the Ohio Valley well before we take off on Thursday. Still, don’t be surprised if the skies are a bit cloudier than what we have experienced on the first two days. There may be a splash of rain showers over western Pennsylvania, but we will likely avoid them with a more northerly route, which will take us around the higher elevation and to Wherman in far western New York.

DAY FOUR
We should be in pretty great shape as we pass through southern New York on Friday. There will be a dry slot behind the still lingering front, and we will enjoy some clear, cooler air as we pass through the Empire State to our intended destination of Binghamton.
Binghamton

Lubbock, Texas

We are taking a trip to west Texas for our forecast today. Fun fact, it’s 6 degrees cooler in Lubbock than it is in Minneapolis today. That is not because it is unseasonably cool in Texas.

At 453PM, CT, Lubbock was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Monsoonal thunderstorms and some lee troughing was helping to induce a brisk southeasterly wind that was actually helping to import some moist air which was keeping temperatures cooler than they might otherwise be.
There was an area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche that is being monitored for tropical development. Whether or not the system becomes a named system or not, it will slam into the Mexican coast tomorrow evening. This will change the wind direction in Lubbock, leading to a muggy and warm day tomorrow. Some guidance suggests that the system will pull enough moisture ashore to produce rain in west Texas as the low moves into Mexico. I don’t think this seems terribly likely, but it does seem logical to forecast some clouds for Lubbock on Tuesday.
Tomorrow – Sunny and warm, High 91, Low 68
Tuesday – Increasingly cloudy, High 90, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 90, Low 67
Tuesday – Sunny High 90, Low 66

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 89, Low 67
Tuesday – Mostly sunny High 88, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 91, Low 67
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 67

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 90, Low 68
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 90, Low 67

Very similar. There is a pretty good sheath of high pressure slicing right through the High Plains right now.
Lubbock

Evading the rough stuff

A lee trough developing over the southern High Plains brought showers and some scattered thunderstorms to the Texas Panhandle particularly on Tuesday. Most of the thunderstorms yesterday were over western Kansas and Oklahoma, but they definitely got going just to the east of Lubbock. Despite it being active throughout the area Lubbock stayed dry for the past two days. Hot and dry. The Weather Channel was the only outfit brave enough to forecast no rain in Lubbock. They ended up at the top of the scrap heap.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 86, Low 47
Wednesday – High 88 Low 53

Grade: B

Lubbock, Texas to Great Falls, Montana

We are heading off on a south to north trek that will take us 2 1/2 days to complete. That’s one of the longer trips you can take without a huge west to east component. It’s 1305 miles between the two towns so our average speed will be about 66mph. Our daily goal will be 528.8 miles. Let’s ride the front range.

DAY ONE
Lubbock
Our slow moving, weak area of low pressure continues to drift through the Rockies, but it will really get its act together when aided by some lee trading as the system descends into the High Plains. A dry slot will develop over the Texas Panhandle, but around the low itself, rain and thunderstorms will be heavy and at times torrential. We will likely snake around severe weather, but if we see any, it will be just after we cross into COlorado. Rain will continue until we reach the Aurora, Colorado area, just south of Denver’s airport.

DAY TWO
An active pattern will continue through the center of the country, but we shouldn’t expect that widespread rain that we will encounter over Colorado tomorrow. Instead, there may be a few showers in the Denver area up to Fort Collins as we head out, but there is good agreement that we will see a long stretch of dry weather through southern Wyoming. The threat of rain will return, however, as we head north of Casper, and certainly by the time we get onto I-90. Isolated showers and storms will remain a possibility as we stop in Toluca, Montana, which is just east of Billings.

DAY THREE
A system diving south through Alaska is going to help clear Montana out. Billings and most of southern Montana will be quite hospitable, but this little wave which reminds of a Clipper, will be a bundle of energy. Breezy winds and the first rounds of rain will arrive in Great Falls just before we do.
GreatFalls

Vindication!

I was right and wrong. I was right in that there was a lag in the warm up in Lubbock. I was wrong, though, that it didn’t rain on Friday. There was a three way tie atop the leaderboard, between Accuweather, the Weather Service and Weatherbug. No matter what had happened with the rain forecast, we at Victoria Weather would have finished 4th. So, no harm done.
Actuals: Friday, High 75, Low 36
Saturday, High 87, Low 42

Grade: C

Lubbock, Texas

West Texas, where they have seen a more typical spring. Strong thunderstorms, changing temperatures, and now they are seeing a fairly steady threat for rain showers.

At 953AM, CT, Lubbock was reporting a temperature of 51 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A cut off low over the southern Plains was rather effective in bringing low level moisture to the region, and just to the north of Lubbock, where clouds have been thicker, it’s 10 degrees colder in Plainview, and 14 degrees cooler in Amarillo. All this indicates how difficult the forecast should be.
The center of circulation for this low is quite evidently between Lubbock and Wichita Falls, south of Childress and north of Abilene. Model output suggests a solution that is a bit quicker than what is being seen at the surface, but the low is forecast to begin it’s shift northeast towards the Great Lakes. Guidance typically struggles with cut off systems, however, and without a strong trailer to give the low a push, it is generally expected that the system will continue to unravel through the next 24-36 hours, and instead of the system shifting, it will instead lose it’s ability to cycle in moisture. Lubbock is already at the southwestern flank of the system, so the dreary forecast isn’t as dire there as it would be along the Red River, for example. Eventually, there could be some clearing in the afternoon Friday and through Saturday.
Tomorrow – Morning clouds, and a threat for drizzle, becoming increasingly sunny. High 73, Low 41
Saturday – Sunny and warmer, High 84, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies High 79, Low 41
Saturday – Mainly sunny. High 88, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and warmer High 78, Low 40
Saturday – Very warm with sunshine High 87, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 78, Low 39
Saturday – Sunny high 85, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny…warmer. high 79, Low 39
Saturday – Sunny High 85, Low 45

So, apparently I am the only one who doubts the models. We’ll see how it goes. I hope I’m wrong, for your sake, Lubbock. Look at how swirly this low is, though.