The Shenandoah Valley was far enough inland that the storm system that scooted up the coast early last week didn’t bring any precipitation to Harrisonburg on Tuesday. Residents of Harrisonburg did not get to enjoy any downsloping, however, and even without the rain, the cool north Atlantic breeze suppressed afternoon highs, and Monday and Tuesday couldn’t even reach the 50s. This combination of events allowed Victoria-Weather and Accuweather to split honors. Actuals: Monday – High 46, low 24 Tuesday – High 45, Low 25
We’re taking our situation to the lee side of the Appalachians. It doesn’t seem like a heavily populated area, but there are many small cities from Winchester in the north to Charlottesville, Roanoke and Blacksburg with Harrisonburg in the middle.
At 935PM, ET, Harrisonburg was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with clear skies. There was a brisk flow off the mountains, with some overcast over West Virginia, but it was chasing low pressure that had shifted off shore. The area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes that was trailing the cold front was parented by a trough with a tail into the Great Lakes, however the jet had dug all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure will develop at the base of the trough and move up the Gulf Stream. It will remain well off shore, and high pressure will remain in place over Harrisonburg, but the reinvigorated flow will keep Harrisonburg dry and cool to start the week. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 25 Tuesday – Increasing clouds, High 52, Low 25
TWC: Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds High 50, Low 26 Tuesday – Cloudy. High 50, Low 28
AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sun high 50, Low 27 Tuesday – Some sunshine giving way to clouds High 50, Low 26
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 48, Low 25 Tuesday – A slight chance of rain after 2pm. Partly sunny, High 51. Low 29
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 49, Low 30 Tuesday – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy, High 48, Low 31
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 48, Low 25 Tuesday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers, High 51, Low 29
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 52, Low 32 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 49, Low 32
The Weather Service and WeatherNation are leaning into the NAM today, but everyone else is a bit more optimistic. Satellite tonight shows off a pretty clear night in Virginia.