Last weekend, the inclement weather was a little bit further north than it was this weekend. It cleared out of Bay City as the work week began, though, with only a stray flurry on Monday morning as sunny skies filtered in. It was a bit chilly, of course, with temperatures bottoming out a 20 on Tuesday morning. There was a two way tie atop the leaderboard, with The Weather Channel and Accuweather tying for victory. Actuals: Monday – .01 inches of liquid, falling as snow, High 35, Low 28 Tuesday – High 33, Low 20
Let’s stay in the Great Lakes today, with a trip to the south side of Saginaw Bay. If you couldn’t establish, that’s the Bay in Bay City.
At 218PM, ET, Bay City was reporting low clouds, fog and heavy rain. There was a smattering of showers and embedded storms from the Thumb southwest through Bay City and extending towards Lansing. This is all in association with an inverted trough dangling to the southwest of a large area of low pressure now centered in southern Ontario. Cold air is lingering to the northwest, and Bay City is riding the sharp gradient, with 50s as nearby as Bad Axe, and snow and the low 30s around Grayling AFB, east of Traverse City. The upper level trough associated with the system is vast, and while it is contributing to the strength and broad scope of the storm, it is also going to lead to an exit plan. The storm is going to continue to taper off in Bay City overnight tonight, with a slight chance at a few flurries before sunrise on Monday. A weak embedded ridge will override the broader trough and will help usher out the last vestiges of the weekend storm by late in the day tomorrow. Overcast skies are still an unfortunate possibility on Tuesday, along with chillier air, as the new short waved ridge won’t be terribly strong. Tomorrow – Scattered showers turning to snow, High 38, Low 28 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy to overcast, High 35, Low 24
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with snow showers mainly during the morning. High 36, Low 28 Tuesday – A mix of clouds and sun early, then becoming cloudy later in the day High 32, Low 25
AW: Tomorrow – Mainly cloudy, some snow with little or no accumulation; storm total snowfall 1-3 inches High 36 Low 28 Tuesday – More clouds than sun; chilly High 34, Low 25
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain and snow likely before 8am, then a chance of snow between 8am and 1pm. Cloudy, High 37, Low 28 Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 32, Low 25
WB: Tomorrow – Colder. Mostly cloudy. Snow likely possibly mixed with rain in the morning. High 37, Low 30 Tuesday – Partly sunny, High 32, Low 26
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix. High 36, Low 33 Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 32, Low 26
FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain overnight.High 36, Low 27 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy starting in the morning. High 32, Low 24
Man, it takes forever to put together forecasts with non-standard days. A look at the radar shows a big thatch of rain right over the mouth of Saginaw Bay.
Forecasts for the eastern part of Michigan thought that temperatures last Thursday would drop off, thanks to the stratiform nature of warm frontal showers. Instead, temperatures in Bay City leapt an additional 3 degrees. As you may have gathered, the warm front passed through Bay City instead of getting snagged south of town and bringing a bunch of clouds and rain. There was rain, though, and it came rather torrentially on Thursday evening. The forecast spoils belonged to Forecast.io.
Wednesday – High 86, Low 66
Thursday – .71 inches of rain, High 89, Low 66
We have a lengthy road trip in our future, as we are scheduled to last 4 1/2 days, covering 2437 miles. This will put us on a pretty quick 67.7mph pace. Our full days will last 542 miles, leaving a little bit of change at the end. Let’s navigate our way through some mountains.
DAY ONE (Wednesday) As we discussed yesterday in relation to Corvallis, there is a nice little area of of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest. There will be heat in the valley, and likely nott a cloud in sight from western Oregon into Idaho. We will make it to Wendell, Idaho to finish the day off. It should be plenty warm there as well.
DAY TWO (Thursday)
There will be a little bit of shower activity in the northern part of the Front Range from Montana to Wyoming, but an organizing low in the High Plains will wrap moisture into itself and away from the northern Rockies. We will make it to Elk Mountain .Wyoming without a drop, and call it a night.
DAY THREE (Friday)
That low that mentioned on Thursday will be a bowling ball of concentrated energy, shooting through the Upper Midwest and dragging slightly cooler but mostly dryer air into the High Plains. Once again, we will enjoy dry conditions for the drive on Friday, as we head out of Wyoming and across the longest part of Nebraska, coming to rest in Lincoln.
DAY FOUR (Saturday)
The next wave will be moving into the Plains, thanks to predominant westerlies and the Rocky Mountains, overnight Friday into Monday. Southerly flow returning to the Plains will conflict with the southerlies behind the previous system, and in Lincoln, we may see a smattering of rain showers. The wet weather won’t be long lived, however,and we’ll be able to get through Iowa and Illinois unscathed, ending the day in Portage, Indiana on the shores of Lake Michigan.
DAY FIVE (Sunday)
As has been our fortune on this trek, expect more clear weather on Sunday as we make the final drive diagonally across the Lower Peninusla. It looks like the heat that we will see through much of the trip will even abate, leading to a pleasant end to the weekend in Bay City.
Well, I was supposed to be off to the Minnesota Twins game tonight, but they pushed the game back until about 10pm, so instead, here I am preparing a forecast for you. Everyone wins.
At 1114PM, ET, the Bay City area was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. surface high pressure was in place across the region, with the jet itself presently running through northern Ontario. There was a light southerly breeze over eastern Michigan, ensuring that it remained warm and clear overnight and into tomorrow morning.
Low pressure in the Upper Midwest was producing a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms making their way through southern Wisconsin. The system is surface born, and as a result, guidance is having a difficult time deciding what to do with it. The consensus seems to be that there may be a rogue shower as far north as Bay City tomorrow, though the severe threat will be to the south. A secondary wave will bring a bit more upper level support to low pressure development on Thursday. The threat for severe weather will be centered around Iowa, but a well organized warm front will bring some general showers and storms to the area through the PM hours.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a few showers and storms. High 86, Low 68
Thursday – More clouds and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 69
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 90, Low 63
Thursday – Scattered thunderstorms High 84, Low 67
AW: Tomorrow – Some sunshine giving way to clouds and humid; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm High 88, Low 66
Thursday – Humid with periods of clouds and sun High 85, Low 70
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Partly sunny, High 89, Low 66
Thursday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Partly sunny, High 81, Low 67
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until 2PM then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 86, Low 65
Thursday – Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 77, Low 70
WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms high 90, Low 66
Thursday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 81, Low 68
FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 88, Low 65
Thursday – Rain starting in the afternoon. High 85, Low 65
It seems like a dicey forecast, but everyone came through with the same on precip. Here is the satellite, showing that huge complex in the Upper Midwest.
The good news for Bay City is that temperatures in the afternoon, both Thursday and Friday were significantly warmer than had been in the forecast. The bad news is that it snowed both Thursday evening and Friday morning, which was not something that everyone anticipated. There was more sun, and somehow more snow than had been in the forecast, and the end result was a colossal bust across the board. WeatherNation technically gets the win, but really, that’s only because we HAVE to give it to someone.
Actuals: Thursday – Trace of snow, High 34, Low 17
Friday – Trace of snow, High 34, Low 13
This seems like it will be a fairly dramatic change, heading from far southern Texas
to the shores of Lake Huron, but its been cloudy, rainy and cool in south Texas for the last several days. It won’t be as crazy a change as we may be anticipating. The drive will take about 3 1/2 days and cover 1759 miles. Our pace will be in the neighborhood of 65mph, or about 520 miles a day. There is open road to cover, so let’s cover it.
DAY ONE (Thursday)
An area of low pressure developing at the surface off the coast of about Victoria or Corpus Christi will be bringing clouds and a little bit of rain to far southern Texas overnight tonight. It will gradually pull away from the coast through the day tomorrow, giving us a cool, dry drive through Texas. You can’t really ask for better conditions than this, especially since the sun will be out to melt any bridge frost that might develop north of Austin. We’ll call it a day after we are in the Dallas area, stopping in Garland on the northwest side of town for the night.
DAY TWO (Friday)
A warm ridge of high pressure will be filtering into the center of the country this weekend, and we will be driving right into the teeth of it. The warm air will make for sunny and pleasant conditions as we navigate our way through Arkansas and into the Bootheel of Missouri, where we will stop in the small town of Portageville to call it a night.
DAY THREE (Saturday)
It seems like this leg of the trip is longer than the others, but I triple checked my math. Indeed, we will make it through Illinois, Northern Indiana and into southwest Michigan. It might just feel like it is longer after driving through St Louis and Chicago. Even with great driving conditions, those are tough towns to drive through. We’ll make it to Paw Paw in southwest Michigan by the end of the day Saturday.
DAY FOUR (Sunday)
A clipper feature will be swinging through the Great Lakes overnight Saturday, and a northwest wind will be blowing off of Lake Michigan by Sunday morning. This could lead to some snow as we leave Paw Paw, but won’t last very long, even wrapping up by the time we reach Kalamazoo. It will likely be fairly cloudy as we finish off the drive, though some guidance suggests that we could encounter even more snow upon arriving in Bay City.
NOAA is releasing a new, upgraded version of the GFS model, so let’s take it for a spin with today’s forecast for Bay City.
At 102PM, ET, Bay City was reporting a temperature of 15 degrees with partly cloudy skies. There remained widespread mostly to partly cloudy skies, though for the time being, there wasn’t much going on synoptically. Instead, low conditions were the result of flow off the still open Great Lakes and sub freezing temperatures.
A weak trough swinging through Canada will move into the region tonight and drag a clipper through the northern Great Lakes through the day tomorrow. There is a chance for an isolated snowflake in Bay City tomorrow evening as the system trails through Michigan, though significant accumulation is not anticipated. The wave will be moving into the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the day Friday, with a shortwave ridge chasing it out, but not chasing out the clouds. There will likely be some warmer, sunnier conditions over the weekend.
Tomorrow – A few snow showers, High 26, Low 12
Friday – Overcast and a hair cooler High 23, Low 18
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 28, Low 11
Friday – Partly Cloudy, High 20, Low 19
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and increasingly windy (late snow) High 28, Low 13
Friday – Times of clouds and sun (early snow) High 21, Low 17
NWS: Tomorrow – Scattered flurries. Cloudy, High 26, Low 13
Friday – Partly sunny (early snow), High 23, Low 17
WB: Tomorrow – Scattered flurries. Mostly cloudy. High 30, Low 13
Friday – Partly cloudy. High 23, Low 17
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Slight Chance of Light Snow Showers High 27, Low 14
Friday – Partly Cloudy (snow early) High 23, Low 18
FIO: Tomorrpw – Overcast throughout the day. High 28, Low 13
Friday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 25, Low 13
Most people aren’t anticipating a non standard day on Friday, but Forecast.io is. We’ll see how that goes. Here is the current satellite, showing lingering clouds through the area.
It’s 2 1/2 days between the foothills of the Rockies and the shore of Lake Huron. Our pace will be 66.3mph, which is pretty good, and will get us 530 miles the first two days, which is great. Thank goodness for freeways in the Plains. Lets head to the Great Lakes.
There is a slow moving boundary moving through the Upper Mid est, and frankly, it’s bringing a bit more rain to the area than I was expecting, certainly. This boundary is bringing some clear weather behind it, which will do a good job of stabilizing the Plains. We will spend the day driving through a sunny Nebraska, with some cooler temperatures than we may have been used to. There will be some clouds filtering back in as we approach Lincoln, with our Sunday destination about an hour or two beyond that in Chalco, on the outskirts of Omaha.
I drew the map last Friday, and admittedly, I just confused Bay City and Benton Harbor, at opposite corners of the Lower Peninsula. Our second day will end closer to Benton Harbor in the city of Gordon Beach, Michigan. Along the way, we will mostly be behind the front through Illinois. We may catch up to the drizzly, rainy stuff around Michigan City, Indiana. It will likely be cloudy as we cross the Michigan border and stop at Gordon Beach.
We won’t catch up to the front at the end of the day this time around! We will make it to Bay City with no problems, and enjoy some serous sunshine in beautiful Bay City (and all of Michigan in between)
No, this isn’t where Victoria-Weather gets pornographic. The humidity in Bay City, Michigan the last two days was appalling. Dew points nearly reached 70, which makes it hard to change temperature by too much That meant that temperatures overnight didn’t fall below 75 either of the past two nights in Bay City, which is awful. I can’t imagine anyone out there slept well. There are some storms rumbling through the area today though, which will knock down that sticky air, and let folks sleep. The Weather Channel had the top forecast in a very gross Bay City.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 91, Low 77
Wednesday – High 91, Low 75