Tag Archives: Barnstable

A rough day on the Cape

A rainy, slow moving system sliding up the Eastern Seaboard brought a bunch of rain to the coast this week. We all knew it was coming, but the rainiest parts were moving faster than most anticipated. In Barnstable, unfortunately exposed to the elements in the Gulf Stream. We knew rain was a possibility, but they saw almost an inch on Tuesday alone. The good news was that temperatures couldn’t drop out of the 50s. The bad news was that the temperatures couldn’t even manage to climb out of the mid 50s on Monday or Tuesday. This all worked out well for Victoria-Weather, who manhandled the forecast and our competition.
Actuals: Monday – High 55, Low 44
Tuesday – .97 inches of rain, High 53, Low 50

Grade: A-D

Barnstable, Massachusetts

How about a forecast? I haven’t dabbled in this market for a while, it might be nice.

At 956PM, ET, Barnstable was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with clear skies. A light southwesterly wind off of the Atlantic was keeping temperatures cool, as they typically do on Cape Cod. Location aside, there was a cooler air mass over southeastern New England, with upper 40s covering the region. There is high pressure in the area, but it is decidedly Canadian, meaning the continued sunshine the area will receive tomorrow will be seasonably cool.
An eddy at the upper levels is centered over the southeastern US. It will be inexorably drawn towards the broader upper level trough moving through eastern Canada. Owing to the warmth and its proximity to the Gulf stream, the surface reflection of the perturbation in the southeastern US will ingest a great deal of moisture. The low will reach the Hampton Roads of Virginia by Tuesday afternoon, and when it does, it will be able to pull moisture off the Gulfstream into Cape Cod. Tuesday afternoon, as a result,  looks to be dreary with a few showers throughout the day.  The good news is that the showers will also bring in warmer air, meaning after the forecast period is over, temperatures will be on their way up.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 44
Tuesday – Cooler with rain in the afternoon. High 53, Low 46 (nonstandard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies in the morning will give way to cloudy skies during the afternoon. High 59, Low 42
Tuesday – Rain. High 51, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then increasing clouds High 58, Low 42
Tuesday – Cooler with periods of rain High 51, Low 44

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 61, Low 40
Tuesday – Rain likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy, High 50, Low 45

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 43
Tuesday – Rain likely. High 51, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 39
Tuesday – Cloudy with light rain, High 50, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting in the morning. High 54, Low 44
Tuesday – Light rain starting in the morning.High 50, Low 46

Some outlets seem to thing tomorrow can still get fairly warm. It will come down to how much sun they can see, and how calm winds are. Check out the developing system in the southeast. You can see a swirl over Tennessee where the low is emerging.

Barnstable, Massachusetts to Pine Bluff, Arkansas

Time to hit the road again, this time on a 3 day excursion through the heart of Appalachia. The trip will cover 1510 miles and will be at a pace of 64.5mph, or 516 miles a day. The drive should be a scenic one. Will it also be a wet one?

DAY ONE (Sunday)
The beginning of our travels on Sunday won’t be much problem at all, really. High pressure developing across the mid Atlantic will squash any remnant showers by the time we hit the road from Barnstable. It will be rainier today in the Appalachians, but we won’t have to deal with any of that activity. Just know that it will be warm and humid, but free of precipitation throughout our day on Sunday. Expect our day to end in Martinsville in eastern West Virginia.

DAY TWO (Monday)
Precipitation will be mostly nonexistent during our Labor Day travels as well. The drive through the two Virginia should be dry, however by mid afternoon when we cross into eastern Tennessee, some clouds will begin to crowd our horizon. The biggest threat will be from isolated orographic thunderstorm activity, which means that the best chance for rain will be at the southern exposures of the highest terrain of far eastern Tennessee. I think the best threat for rain will be between Kingsport and Morristown, and again in the southern suburbs of Knoxville, but high clouds could squeeze out a drop anywhere through the region. We will make a sharp turn to the west and end up in Crossville, Tennessee to finish the day.

DAY THREE (Tuesday)
The shower activity won’t really be a problem anywhere along our route outside of the easternmost part of Tennessee. Expect things to clear out by the time we have passed through Cookesville, with generally sunny conditions all the way through the remainder of Tennessee. The NAM suggests that rain may be spilling into Arkansas by Tuesday afternoon associated with a wave emerging from the Upper Midwest, though the GFS still has this energy and resultant moisture as far north as Iowa. The NAM is at the end of it’s forecast period by Tuesday night, and I suspect it’s a bit scurrilous. Let’s just say that it will probably be mostly cloudy when we arrive in Pine BLuff, but probably not raining.

Racine, Wisconsin to Barnstable, Massachusetts

And we’re into the wind again. This two day road trip will get us to Barnstable in plenty of time for Labor Day. The drove is 1115 miles and will be at a pace of 63.1 mph. That means our first day, the shorter of the two, will be through after 8 hours and about 505 miles in a day.

This first day is going to be a real bear, if only because we have to take the longest, slowest route through Chicago. There will be a little bit of rain in the southern Great Lakes throughout the day. Temperatures near 90 surrounding this batch of instability suggest that most of the rain showers will be embedded with some thundersr. There is a weak upper level gradient suggesting elevated convection, and a high amplitude ridge is pressing into the area, so there will be some movement to the activity, but it won’t be strong or appear well organized. The threat will increase as the day goes on thanks to the advancing ridge and increased heating, with the heaviest storms likely over northern Ohio. We will slip into Pennsylvania and the town of Fairview, right along the coast of Lake Erie.

High pressure will hang out over southern New England through most of the day on Sunday. Some of that shower activity will filter east away from the southern Great Lakes, with showers and an isolated storm popping up in the Buffalo area in the early afternoon. That’s wonderful, but by that point, we should be in Syracuse, continuing to head east towards Barnstable, where the last weekend of summer will be warm and wonderful.

Raining on the parade

The forecast for Barnstable, the Cape and the islands south of the Cape was to be fairly warm and breezy with a south wind. Rain would come, but only in a splash on Tuesday Temperatures behaved mostly as expected, though perhaps a degree or two cooler than anticipated. The misfortune came on Monday, however, when there was a little bit of rain, screwing up a perfectly fine set of forecasts. Victoria-Weather had the best forecast, which may be why I’m so bitter that it wasn’t perfect.
Actuals: Monday – Rain, High 69, Low 55
Tuesday – Rain, High 70, low 62

Grade: B-C

Barnstable, Massachusetts

Today the forecast machine takes us to Cape Cod. The real weather has been in the Plains, but I suspect more folks will be intrigued by this forecast. Let’s see what we come up with.

At 753PM, ET, Barnstable was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with clear skies. A south wind off of the chilly Atlantic was leading to temperatures that were 5-10 degrees cooler than those found at inland locations. High pressure dominated the surface and upper levels, however a short wave rippling through the Upper Midwest was producing a fairly active cold front in the Ohio Valley that will bear watching in coming days.
Shortwave born systems have a tendency to move much more swiftly than those that arise from broader upper level dynamics. The only thing that will hinder the advance of the system on eastern Massachusetts is its northward pregression on the eastern arm of the trough. This will mean a warmer air mass tomorrow as it rises north ahead of the system, which will eventually arrive late on Tuesday in the form of scattered showers. The front will begin to deteriorate as it approaches the Cape, but will reform offshore as the low continues poleward. For the beginning of the week, though, exppect some good summer time weather.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, breezy, High 70, Low 54
Tuesday – Afternoon showers, High 70, Low 64

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny/Wind, High 69, Low 51
Tuesday – PM Thunderstorms, High 68, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and windy High 72, Low 51
Tuesday – Breezy with a thunderstorm in spots; cloudy in the morning, then clouds and sun in the afternoon High 71, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 52
Tuesday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow -Mostly sunny. High 71, Low 51
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 72, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 72, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 72, Low 63

FIO: Partly cloudy throughout the day and breezy starting in the afternoon. High 67, Low 53
Tuesday – Breezy until evening and rain starting in the evening.High 67, Low 60

This forecast would be so much more impressive if the city wasn’t sitting in the middle of the Atlantic ocean. Here is the satellite imagery, showing the fairly impressive system over the Ohio Valley.

Summer will come eventually

New England was the part of the country most significantly impacted by a grueling winter. Along the coast, particularly in an exposed area like Barnstable and Cape Cod, temperatures still aren’t getting out of the 50s regularly. There was a splash of rain on Friday morning, compounding the unpleasantness the region was enduring, but things were looking up by Saturday! It even reached the low 6s!. Always optimistic, Victoria-Weather claimed the top spot with The Weather Channel, thanks to an appropriately chilly Friday with a bright and sunshiny Saturday forecast.
Actuals: Friday – High 51, Low 39
Saturday, High 61, Low 41

GradeL B-D

Barnstable, Massachusetts

Hello and welcome to the overnight forecast, that you will likely not notice because of Anthony’s discussion of the tornado that hit his home town, and even the house he grew up in today.

At 146AM, ET, Barnstable was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with overcast skies. There was an east wind off the Atlantic that was transporting low level moisture through the Cape into a nasty area of low pressure working its way through the Great Lakes. This is the same feature that has led to severe weather in the Mississippi Valley, but has also had the potency to deliver snow to the Upper Midwest.
The East Coast was enduring a serious bout of damming, with warm air grinding to a halt through northern North Carolina, but the warm front aloft was just to the south of New York City. Through sunrise tomorrow, the boundary will lift to the north of Boston, and if the clouds and fog can dissipate at all, things may warm up quite a bit tomorrow, but that doesn’t appear likely. The good news is that the sludge in eastern Massachusetts will prevent thunderstorm development through the state when the cold front sweeps through tomorrow evening. Despite the cold front sweeping through tomorrow night, the clear skies may lend some people the opinion that Saturday is the nicer day, with the sun likely to make an appearance. Unfortunately, the clearing conditions will also mean a drop in temperatures Saturday night
Tomorrow – Scattered showers, High 52, Low 38
Saturday – Clearing by midday, then chilly in the evening, High 55, Low 41 (non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Rain, High 52, Low 40
Saturday – Mostly Sunny, High 56, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and milder with a couple of showers around, mainly late; fog this morning Hgh 56, Low 37
Saturday – Sun followed by some clouds and windy High 55, Low 40

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely before noon, then a chance of showers between noon and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Patchy fog before 1pm. Otherwise, cloudy High 52, Low 36
Saturday – Mostly sunny, (early rain, High 56, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Rain likely in the morning…Then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Not as cool High 52, Low 36
Saturday – Mostly Sunny, High 50, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Patchy Fog (early rain) High 52, Low 39
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 37

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until afternoon, starting again in the evening, and breezy starting in the evening. High 49, Low 38
Saturday – Breezy and partly cloudy until afternoon. High 49, Low 42

It’s pretty weird to see the day AFTER the cold front moves through be the non standard day, but that’s just the power of lingering backwash clouds. Here is the current satellite imagery.

Clearer skies on the Cape

The thing that threw everyone off when forecasting for Cape Cod, I think, ws just how clear the skies were. Temperatures responded as though things were clearer than what forecasters expected, as the high on both Saturday and Sunday ended up warmer than forecasts in Barnstable. More significantly, the low temperature Saturday morning was at least 4 degrees cooler than everyone had predicted. Curiously, the two outlets, Accuweather and Victoria-Weather, who had incorrectly advertised rain both on Saturday and Sunday also forecast a broader temperature spread, and ended up getting the top spot.
Actuals: Saturday – High 64, Low 39
Sunday – .05 inches of rain, High 64, Low 50

Grade: C

Rochester, Minnesota to Barnstable, Massachusetts

We have done a lot of travel this week, and we will have one last trip to take us through the weekend. It’s going to be over 2 1/2 days to cover the 1388 miles between southeastern Minnesota and Cape Cod, which means an average speed of approximately 64mph, which means day one and two won’t be complete until after we have covered 512 miles, and left a short drive through Massachusetts on Monday.

With the jet riding northwest to southeast across the Upper Midwest, we can expect some overcast with light rain to develop over the Mississippi Valley later in the day tomorrow. to be perfectly frank, however, I don’t reallly think there will be enough forcing to touch off showers until we are cruising through Chicago. We will encounter the back end of a trough in the eastern Great Lakes after we hit South Bend. This will be a better chance of rain, which will be light and intermittent until we reach the first exit in Ohio, just before the Turnpike begins. Technically, the town is Edon, I guess.

It’s looking more and more like a secondary cold front is going to develop from central Ohio to northern Iowa in association with the newly reinvigorated low moving through Canada. It will be just south of where we are going, but some pervasive overcast will bring a bit of drizzle by the time we reach Cleveland, and it will continue into western New York. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if there is a little bit of snow in the higher elevations of New York, and particularly in northern New York. Maybe not so much in Syracuse, the destination for Sunday night, but it stinks that the specter is that close.

The whole system is going to move pretty swiftly when it starts to strengthen. Expect dry skies when we start the day, and for those same conditions to continue as we carry on through western Massachusetts. Out luck is expected to change after we pass Worcester and head to the Cape, unfortunately. Some inverted troughing and a still moisture rich environment will result in the chance for some light showers moving north to east across eastern Massachusetts, which means a potential for some drizzle when we get to Cape Cod.