What’s this, no precipitation?
Posted by Ryan
After several forecasts and posts discussing the rain or snow or sleet or whatever, we finally came to Tallahassee. Naturally, Anthony got the forecast, because he always tends to be dealt the forecasts that offer no real weather. Well, there is one thing that is a bigger problem in Florida than anywhere else, and it happened in Tallahassee. The temperature dipped to 27 degrees, below freezing both days of the forecast period, which was not handled well by most. The Weather Channel had the coldest overnight lows in their forecast, and had the top spot in Tallahassee. Keep an eye on those produce prices.
Actuals: Thursday - High 55, Low 27
Friday - High 68, Low 27
Grade: C
Tallahassee, Florida
Posted by Anthony
Yesterday, much of Florida got rocked with a line of thunderstorms associated with the low pressure that's moving up the Eastern Seaboard and is dropping a bunch of snow from D.C. to Boston. That whole front has moved out over the Atlantic, which means... yup, you guessed it. A whole lotta nothing for the next couple of days.
At 1053PM EST, the temperature in Tallahassee, FL is 45 degrees under fair skies. As mentioned earlier, the cold front that swept through the Sunshine State yesterday is found over the Bahamas to the Florida Straits and broad high pressure is controlling much of the region from the Southern Plains throughout the Deep South and Gulf of Mexico. This dome of high pressure will center itself over the Gulf of Mexico, then over Florida by Saturday. In fact, the next chance of precip for the Florida Panhandle doesn't appear to be until Sunday morning when a weak disturbance moves in from the west. In the meantime, hoards of sunshine is expected to finish off the workweek, but a rather chilly start to both days, as clear skies and a cool air mass could lead to areas of frost.
Thursday: Clear, some morning frost. High 57, Low 31.
Friday: A few clouds. High 66, Low 33.
TWC: Thursday: Partly cloudy. High 57, Low 27.
Friday: Sunny. High 64, Low 32.
AW: Thursday: Plenty of sunshine. High 59, Low 30.
Friday: Bright sunshine. High 65, Low 33.
NWS: Thursday: Morning frost. High 55, Low 31.
Friday: Sunny. High 62, Low 35.
WB: Thursday: Mostly sunny. High 57, Low 32.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 65, Low 32.
Here we see a few high clouds off to the west, but otherwise, a whoooole lotta nothing going on. Once again. I'll let you know where my next forecast is for soon, and you can plan your vacation there. Guaranteed sun!
And the NAM smiles smugly
Posted by Ryan
When we forecast for Tallahassee, I pointed out that the primary models, the NAM and GFS were different by about 15 degrees on high temperature forecasts for Monday. I also noted that everyone leaned heavily towards the warmer, slower GFS. Well, that's not quite what happened. It started raining Sunday evening and carried through Monday. The closest to the actual sign on Monday, The Weather Channel, was still 7 degrees off. There was once a time when they would completely side with the GFS. How times have changed. TWC was the best forecaster, if you don't factor in the model outputs, because the NAM wins handily. I'm sorry I ever doubted you, NAM.
Actuals: Sunday - trace of rain, High 51, Low 29
Monday - .22 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 46, low 38
Grade: C
Tallahassee, Florida
Posted by Ryan
Very late forecast today... I am an Indianapolis Colts fan, and my day has been consumed with preparing for, watching, and mourning their loss in the playoffs. My apologies.
At 253AM, ET, Tallahassee was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 30 degrees. A weak ridge was in charge over the eastern United States, and atypically cold air was digging deep into the southeast. This cold air already in place will play a major role in the winter storm (yeah! winter storm!) passing through Alabama and Georgia over the next 36 hours.
The area of low pressure that will be responsible for the terrible weather to afflict the southeast in the coming days is currently centered over far southern Texas. This is by and large a lower and mid-level system that is expected to move along the Gulf Coast while transporting quite a bit of moisture inland. With temperatures inland already below freezing at the surface, the mid-level warmth and moisture will lead to a potentially devastating stripe of ice from about Texarkana, Texas to Macon, Georgia, with snow to the north and rain to the south. This includes Tallahassee, where rain will arrive overnight into Monday morning, lasting through the afternoon.
Today - Warming and breezy, High 50, Low 27
Monday - Rain begins early and lasts through the day, High 58, Low 41
TWC: Today - A mix of clouds and sun during the morning will give way to cloudy skies this afternoon High 53, Low 28
Monday - Cloudy with occasional rain...mainly in the morning. High 53, Low 40
AW: Today - Cloudy (late rain) High 53, Low 28
Monday - Cloudy with rain and a thunderstorm, mainly early in the day High 62, Low 34
NWS: Today - Partly sunny High 50, Low 34
Monday - Rain and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of rain between 1pm and 4pm High 56, Low 41
WB: Today - Partly cloudy High 49, Low 30
Monday - Not as cool. Mostly cloudy. Rain and chance of thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon High 58, Low 39
The two primary domestic models are different by 14 degrees for Monday's high in Tallahassee. Everyone is hedging dramatically towards the GFS, which is warmer and carries this potentially very nasty system through Tallahassee much slower. The system is showing up well on satellite over Texas at this time.
Watching out for Number 5
Posted by Ryan
The low we were monitoring in the eastern Gulf at the time we issued the Tallahassee forecast has since been labeled Tropical Depression 5. There isn't much chance that it will be a hurricane at any point in it's life cycle, and there is even a chance that the system won't even become a Tropical Storm. It is expected to stall over the Mississippi Delta, providing more problems for an area that certainly doesn't need any. The system also showed a more northerly track than I had indicated in my forecast on Sunday, and they saw a thunderstorm in Tallahassee yesterday.In the end, Weatherbug and The Weather Channel ended up getting the top forecasts.
Actuals: Monday - High 96, Low 77
Tuesday - .38 inhes of rain, High 94, Low 78
Grade B
Greenville, South Carolina to Tallahassee, Florida
Posted by Ryan
Our Monday afternoon drive will be fairly enjoyable. It's only about 7 hours from Greenville to Tallahassee, covering 414 miles. That puts us on a pace of 59.7mph, thanks in large part to some country roads and a trip through the heart of Atlanta.
For a drive through the southeast in the dead of summer, this will be a fairly easy trip. A low off the Florida coast will pass over the Peninsula and draw almost all focus for thunderstorms south of our route. It's going to be so blasted hot and humid for the drive that there is that outside chance of a storm, but that likely won't come until after we have been on the road for a while. I would say we will be dry until we reach Macon, after which we will fend off some isolated showers until we hit the Florida border. No rain is expected in Tallahassee, but it will be incredibly warm.
Tallahassee, Florida
Posted by Ryan
We're forecasting for the capital of Florida. Fun fact, it's actually warmer here in Minneapolis than it is in Tallahassee.
At 653PM, ET, Tallahassee was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees with clear skies. A mostly stationary boundary has existed along a line from southern Arkansas towards Tampa for most of the day, and is continuing to touch of thunderstorms off the coast south of Tallahassee and to the west, generally west of Panama City.
An area of low pressure east of the Florida Peninsula will traverse the Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple 18 hours or so and will lie south of Tallahassee by tomorrow. Fortunately, this will put Tallahassee in a perfect position, with flow becoming off shore, deadening the threat for showers and storms. The system, which does have a slight chance of becoming a tropical storm, will stay well south of Tallahassee as it passes through the Gulf, which will allow the Floridian capital a rare 48 hours of dry air.
Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, High 96, Low 74
Tuesday - Mostly sunny, High 93, Low 76
TWC: Tomorrow - Becoming partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms developing during the afternoon. High 97, Low 76
Tuesday - Isolated thunderstorms. High 96, Low 76
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 97, Low 75
Tuesday - A blend of sun and clouds with a shower or thunderstorm; hot High 97, Low 73
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny and hot High 97, Low 74
Tuesday - A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm High 95, Low 75
WB: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of thunderstorms, High 97, Low 75
Tuesday - Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 95, Low 76
I'm a little cooler than the rest. Humidity and noth winds should keep temperatures from climbing too terribly high. The radar shows thunderstorms off to the west.
