Tag Archives: Tallahassee

Verification

Weather Wayback – Holiday hangover

As we approach Thanksgiving 2018, we can look back to Christmas 2017 and think “wow, what happened there?” Shortly after Christmas, Anthony put together an unusually chilly forecast for Tallahassee, and much to the surprise of all interested parties, a cold frnt made it even colder than anyone expected. Nearly half an inch of rain fell on December 27th, and on the 28th, temperatures only made it to 48, a far cry from the forecast highest in the upper 50s.It was a bad forecast across the board, but the NWS and WeatherNation ultimately pulled off a sllightly better forecast.
Actuals Thursday December 27th, .41 inches of rain,  High 50, Low 43
Friday December 28th, High 48, Low 33

Grade: C-D

Forecast

Tallahassee, Florida

Today we head somewhere MUCH warmer than it’s been around here in the Midwest. The Florida Panhandle can’t possibly be below zero right? RIGHT?!?!

At 953pm EST, the temperature at Tallahassee, FL was 50 degrees under overcast skies. As strong Arctic high pressure grips the Midwest/Great Lakes region, it extends pretty much over the entire eastern half of the US. However, there is the tail end of a boundary that’s lingering over Northern Florida, kicking up a few rain showers in the process. These aren’t terribly heavy, but they will affect the area overnight and flare up again late Thursday afternoon. As the high pressure builds further south and shifts east a bit, the main ridge axis of it will shift through the area, helping to clear out conditions as we head into the weekend. Tallahassee won’t see anywhere close to the low temperatures we’re seeing currently, but a high temp in the low 50s is still a bit brisk for those dwelling near the Gulf Coast.

Thursday: Scattered showers, especially in afternoon. High 51, Low 44
Friday: Small chance of early morning shower, otherwise dry, warmer. High 58, Low 41.

TWC: Thursday: Showers. High 48, Low 43.
Friday: Morning clouds, afternoon sun. High 58, Low 41.

AW: Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a little rain. High 48, Low 44.
Friday: Partial sunshine. High 56, Low 41.

NWS: Thursday: Chance of rain showers. High 48, Low 41.
Friday: Gradual clearing. High 55, Low 39.

WB: Thursday: Chance of rain. High 48, Low 43.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High 56, Low 42.

WN: Thursday: Mostly cloudy with light rain likely. High 50, Low 42.
Friday: Partly cloudy. High 57, Low 40.

FIO: Thursday: Light rain in the afternoon. High 49, Low 43.
Friday: Isolated early AM shower, mostly cloudy until evening. High 56, Low 42.

Some light shower activity is shifting eastward through the area with the heaviest stuff already off to the east. Some showers are expected to return tomorrow before drying out for the weekend.

Verification

Days warm up, nights cool off

Tallahassee was among the towns that had a rough start to the week, which was tempered by a move back towards, and in some cases above, normal. One of those cases was the high temperature, which returned to the mid to upper 70s, which was at least 10 degrees above normal. The lows, however, remained in the low 40s, which was closer to normal, and was significantly cooler than meteorologists had expected. The sea breeze was not as effective at producing clouds, so the sun was able to radiate in during the day, and the heat radiated out at night. It was because of the still cool nights that the forecast was unimpressive. The Weather Channel put together the best forecast, but none were terribly good.
Actuals: Thursday – High 75, low 43
Friday – High 80, Low 45

Grade: C-D

Road Trip

Albany, New York to Tallahassee, Florida

Shall we head for the beach? I definitely think so, especially if we are coming from downstate New York. Tallahasee isn’t on the beach, but it’s a lot closer than Albany. The drive between the cities will last 2 days, with the second day lasting a couple extra hours. The cities are 1239 miles apart, which will lead to a swift I-95 pace of 69.6mph. The first day in the car will be over after 556.8 miles, leaving the spare for Saturday. Let’s get progressively warmer with a southward journey.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Albany,+New+York/Tallahassee,+Florida/@36.3587892,-83.5046482,6z/am=t/data=!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89de0a34cc4ffb4b:0xe1a16312a0e728c4!2m2!1d-73.7562317!2d42.6525793!1m5!1m1!1s0x88ec8a5187124b53:0xebee077ad4fdb1f8!2m2!1d-84.2807329!2d30.4382559

DAY ONE (Friday)

There is a quickly diminishing cold front sliding through New York and the Mid-Atlantic this evening. There is a break in the action in downstate New York, however a brisk west wind will be bringing temperatures down overnight, encouraging us, no doubt, to get the heck out of town. The boundary will continue to shift south and split in two. We won’t see any rain through the day on Friday, but south of New York City, we will notice a more aggressive breeze. After we pass through the DC area, the overcast will become noticeably darker. Some gloomy skies will accompany us all the way to Mount Pleasant, North Carolina, just across the Virginia border.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
The boundary will see a weak area of low pressure develop over the Appalachians, dragging moisture off the Bight of Georgia and some instability from over the Blue Ridge Mountains. The recipe won’t be one for heavy precipitation, but the Carolinas will be a little damp as we drive through them, but drier air will emerge as we ht Savannah and Jacksonville. IT will still be humid, of course, but the threat for rain will stay in the Palmetto State. It should be pretty warm as we slice across north Florida. Yes, the last hour or so from Tallahassee to the beach will be worth it.

Forecast

Tallahassee, Florida

1 Comment

Right in the middle of January, it’s important once in a while to step away from the chill of the coasts and take a long hard look at what’s going on in a place like Florida.

At 453PM, ET, Tallahassee was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees, a pleasant return to more normal temperatures in the wake of the too close for comfort system of last week. At the present time, a light sea breeze was wafting inland off of Appalachee Bay and making Tallahassee a hair cooler than the surrounding regions, which have the capacity for temperatures in the low 70s.
A converging jet around the Great Lakes is leading to surface ridging in the southeast. The surface ridge will build as a deep trough in the west continues to strengthen. Over the next two days, there may be a few clouds and morning fog in Tallahassee, but generally speaking, life will be good in Tallahassee.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 49
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, Skies, High 76, Low 49
Friday – Sunshine, High 78, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasantly warm with a full day of sunshine High 77, Low 50
Friday – Sunshine and pleasantly warm with the temperature approaching the record of 81 set in 1937 HIgh 78, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 51
Friday – Sunny, High 77, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, Low 53
Friday – Sunny, high 75, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 75, Low 52
Friday – Mostly Sunny, High 77, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 78, Low 47
Friday – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 78, Low 53

Not much to speak of in the city of Tallahassee. I’m sure local residents welcome the return to normal. Pretty nice right now on satellite as well.

Verification

When will we learn?

How many times do I say it? Clear skies over night lead to chilly night time lows. Well, it happened again in Tallahassee, but the closest anyone got to the correct forecast low yesterday was 5 degrees off. Clear, dry anticyclonic air was in place over Tallahassee, and the temperature dropped all the way to 44 Only The Weather Channel had a forecast that dropped into the 40s, because we meteorologists are too bullheaded to forecast a proper morning low. The Weather Channel got the win, but everyone should be embarassed.
Actuals: Sunday – High 75, Low 52
Monday – High 74, Low 44

Grade: C

Forecast

Tallahassee, Florida

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Hey! Are you ready for our all Florida, all the time stretch? We’ll start tongiht in the Panhandle.

At 1253AM, ET, Tallahassee was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with clear skies. Ther was a shortwave over the Bahamas prodcuing some clouds over far soutehrn Florida, but a vast area of high pressure was centered over the eastern United States, building far enough south that Tallahassee was towards the southeastern periphery of the ridge.
A very weak upper level wave will move through the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, potentially introducing a change in wind direction across the region. A light northwesterly flow will not have a deep enough fetch to cause a drop in temperatures though, and aside from a few clouds on Monday, expect a very nice couple of days in Tallahassee.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 70, Low 52
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 72, Low 52

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and Clouds mixed, High 71, Low 50
Monday – Sunny skies, High 74, Low 49

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 71, Low 52
Monday – Partly sunny High 73, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 70, Low 51
Monday – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny High 72, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 70, Low 51
Monday – Mostly Sunny, High 72, Low 51

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 70, Low 52
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 72, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 74, Low 49
Monday – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 73, Low 52

Not even oppressively warm in Florida. Great time for a visit.
Tallahassee

Road Trip

Tallahassee, Florida to Hinesville, Georgia

I love these trips through the country roads of various states. This one will take us 4 hours to visit some small towns in Florida and Georgia before arriving at our final destination, about 202 miles away. The math, which I can do in my head (I’m a scientist) suggests that our average speed will be about 50 mph. Small towns, ladies and gents!

Tallahassee
The drive through south Georgia will mostly be dry, I suspect. There will be some free convection thanks to an onshore flow off of the Atlantic, but since it is off the Atlantic, the best chance for shower activity won’t come until the final hour of driving, between Waycross and Hinesville. Even then, don’t expect much rain. Do expect some sweltering heat.
Hinesville

Road Trip

Poughkeepsie, New York to Tallahassee, Florida

You know what, it’s kind of fun to say “Poughkeepsie to Tallahassee”. The two cities are 1175 miles apart, which is one short day and one long day apart. The speed of our trip will be about 65.6mph, which means our shorter day of driving will cover 524 miles, with the rest coming in about 10 hours on Monday. It’s all Eastern Seaboard driving,which inevitably will mean a bit of traffic. I don’t think weather will be the biggest problem.

DAY ONE (Sunday)
poughkeepsiiiiie
There is another one of those pesky waves moving through the southern Great Lakes, but as we depart Poughkeepsie, it will be shrouded in high pressure. The wave will have a tough time scooting through the Appalachians, so there won’t be a lot of free convection, but a southerly flow off of the Atlantic will be enough to help touch off a few showers and even an isolated thunderstorm. High pressure will help keep a lid on the showers until we hit Baltimore, and even then, as we head south through DC and Virginia, it will be very widely scattered. The best chance for rain will be around Richmond, but showers will be tapering off as we make our way into North Carolina, and stop for the night in the tiny town of Dortches, northwest of Rocky Mount.

DAY TWO (Monday)
It’s likely to be cloudy and muggy for much f the day on Monday. Even after the passage of the wave over night, the threat for showers and sstorms will likely be better than they were on Sunday, simply because of the heat and humidity. Coastal South Carolina and south Georgia seems to be the stormiest, so that’s the forecast for where the most rain will be. It will be a little bit more isolated after we hit Lake City and continue towards Tallahassee, though, and coverage will be sparse enough that I think I feel safe in saying that we should be dry.
Tallahassee

Verification

Balmy days are here again

At least we can say that our forecast seem summer like. And all right, most of the country seems summer like, but as we have noted, V-W world headquarters are in the Twin Cities, and we are getting a bunch of snow today. I digress. Forecasting for Tallahassee made me yearn for mid June. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 80s, which sounds delightful. The top forecast belonged to The Weather Channel, but the real winners were residents of Tallahassee.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 89, Low 66
Wednesday – High 85, Low 67

Grade: B