Tag Archives: Madison

A little more than was bargained for

Every winter, meteorologists tend to start the same way. First, we overestimate a snow storm or two. Then, chastened by our aggressive forecast, we tone it down a bit, and that works until we get blown out of the water. That last one, the one where we completely underestimate the snow totals, is what we encountered in Madison on Saturday. On Saturday alone, Madison saw nearly 4 inches of snow, on their way towards 7 over the course of the weeekend. he highest total I saw was for only about 3-4 inches. Yikes! At ;east everyone had snow in the forecast on Saturday, so that didn’t set any outlets back, but the flurries on Friday morning leveled the playing field too Victoria-Weather’s advantage as we were the only ones to have it. It wasn’t enough to overtake the NWS, however, because they crushed the temperature forecast.
Actuals: Friday – Trace of snow, High 24, Low 18
Saturday – 3.7″ inches of snow, High 20, Low 12

Grade: B-C

Madison, Wisconsin

It’s late, but the weather is still ongoing. It’s going to be a very chilly forecast!

At 1253AM, CT, Madison was reporting a temperature of 22 degrees with overcast skies. There are reports of flurries across the region as colder air continues to build into the region. The brisk westerly flow will continue tomorrow, with the threat for light snow persisting thanks to the chilly air and modicum of instability.
A broad trough over the northern Rockies is helping establish a weak warm front that will develop late on Saturday. Detached from the primary system, still laying in the Mountains, this boundary will function as its own perturbation, with a healthy batch of snow developing in the Dakotas and Minnesota. It will just reach Madison by the time Saturday comes to a close, with heavier accumulations expected on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Isolated flurry activity, High 20, Low 13
Saturday – Snow becoming likely late, High 20, Low 10

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine in the morning followed by mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon High 21, Low 16
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming cloudy with periods of snow later in the day High21, Low 14

AW: Tomorrow – Very cold with clouds and sunny spells high 22, Low 18
Saturday – Very cold with clouds and sunny spells High 20, Low 9

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 21, Low 18
Saturday – A 50 percent chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 20, Low 11

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 20, Low 16
Saturday – Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with light snow likely in the afternoon, HIgh 18, Low 13

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 21, Low 16
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with snow, High 19, Low 10

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until night. Hiigh 23, Low 16
Saturday – Snow (1–3 in.) starting in the evening. High 22, Low 14

Anthony and I have each posted a forecast for Wisconsin tonight, so we will definitely have to see who wears it better. I might be the only one honoring the flurries in the forecat tonight. Here is a look at the satellite imagery for the evening. You can see a whorl up in eastern Canada that continues to drive westerlies and cold air into the Midwest

Perfect weather

One of the appeals of the University of Wisconsin (aside from their terrific meteorology program) is the campus’s position in downtown Madison between Lakes Monona and Mendota (but mostly along Mendota). With school back in session, and Badger fans basking in the glow of a Saturday victory, I’m sure the patios looking out over the lakes were packed in the afternoon the last two days, with temperatures in the low 70s and the sun shining. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast, though it was a good group effort.
Actuals: Sunday – High 70, Low 46
Monday – High 74, Low, 48

Grade: A – B

Madison, Wisconsin to Holland, Michigan

Another fairly short trip for us tonight, save for the passage through the heart of Chicago. It should take us 5 hours to make the trip, though, of course, it won’t. Because Chicago. The average speed will, allegedly be 60.4mph as we cover 296 miles over the road. That should be manageable, even for a drive through Chicago.

High pressure lies over New England, as you may have surmised if you are a regular reader of Victoria-Weather. It extends its western flank over the Great Lakes, which means that conditions are getting a little breezier across the region, particularly in southern Wisconsin. The breeze will actually be off shore when we arrive in Holland, which means that it won’t be terribly cloudy, and should be pretty nice for getting to the lake front.

Madison, Wisconsin

Today was a college football Saturday. Wisconsin won. What will the weather be like in Madison as I’m sure celebrations sweep the state?

At 1053PM, CT, Madison was reporting a temperature of 51 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The rest of the region was clearing out, and temperatures were dipping regularly into the mid to upper 40s throughout Wisconsin. High pressure in the wake of some showers and storms late in the week remains across the region, and is leading to the clear conditions.
While the pattern in the CONUS will continue to be fairly quiet, with high pressure continuing to drift east through the Great Lakes. A developing system over northern Manitoba is expected to produce a strong area of surface low pressure through the tundra. This will allow temperatures to warm back up in Madison, as warm air flows north through the city.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 46
Monday – Warmer, sunny, High 71, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 49
Monday – Sunny, High 73, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and nice High 71, Low 45
Monday – Partly sunny and nice High 72, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 47
Monday – Sunny High 73, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 48
Monday – Sunny High 73, Low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 72, Low 48
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 73, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning.High 71, Low 48
Monday – Clear throughout the day.High 73, Low 46

As you can see, there are just a few scattered high clouds across the region tonight. This will keep it from getting much cooler in Madison, so that’s good news.

Dodging Showers

There were a few storms popping off around Madison on Wednesday, but luckily avoided the area and made for a fairly decent day. They weren’t so lucky on Thursday as they had a couple light showers move through the area. Overall, VW and the NWS tied for the top spot.

Wednesday: High 80, Low 56.
Thursday: 0.01″ in late-morning shower. High 77, Low 64.
Forecast Grade: B

Madison, Wisconsin

All right, we have a forecast coming. Heads up!

At 753PM, CT, Madison was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with partly cloudy skies. High pressure is parked at the surface over the Great Lakes, allowing for a respite from the thunderstorms for the region. This will continue through at least the early afternoon tomorrow.
A wave at the lower levels will emerge in the central Plains despite upper level ridging developing. Guidance is universal in its opinion that there will be some heavier rain or a thunderstorm over the Madison region overnight tomorrow and into Thursday morning. There will then be a weak area of high pressure behind the heavier precipitation at the surface, but some baroclinicity introduced by a split in the jet stream will mean some cloudy skies on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms in the afternoon and evening, High 79, Low 58
Thursday – Rain in the morning, then cooling at night, High 75, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (late rain), High 83. Low 60
Thursday – Mostly cloudy (early rain), High 81, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 82, Low 47
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and not as warm with a shower or thunderstorm in spots HIgh 77, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, High 82, Low 59
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 76, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning…Then partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of light showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82, Low 60
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of light showers and thunderstorms High 76, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms HIgh 82, Low 59
Thursday – Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 75, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the evening. High 82, Low 61
Thursday – Light rain until afternoon.High 80, Low 65

Temperatures will be dropping off after it clears out on Thursday, but it won’t be dark long enough for it to cool off a lot. Here is the satellite now, showing that Wisconsin is pretty free and easy.

Sunny September

Madison welcomed students back to class recently, but fortunately, the last two days were weekend days, because I find it hard to believe students would want to spend much time in class. The sun was out and temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s. The weather was far more perfect for relaxing on Lake Mendota than spending time in a lecture hall. The Weather Channel had the top forecast for the weekend.
Actuals: Saturday, High 75, Low 52
Sunday – High 79, Low 50

Grade: A

Brownsville, Texas to Madison, Wisconsin

We’re taking off bright and early Saturday morning on this excursion, so be prepared! It will take us through Monday to get from Brownsville to Madison, which surely is less time than you expected, right? Part of the reason the drive is so short is because we will be able to cover the ground on I-35 so quickly. We will be moving at a pace of 65.5mph, which allows us to cover 525 miles a day. Not bad at all.

DAY ONE (Saturday)
This forecast is unusual for the lateness in which we are issuing it, because we can look at radar and decide whether or not we will see rain to begin the day. Gulf Coastal storms are developing early around Corpus Christi, so when we arrive there to take a turn towards San Antonio, we may see a brief deluge. That’s a good descriptor for the state of Texas today, frankly. We will get out of the wet weather soon after turning inland from Corpus Christi, and the trip through San Antonio and Austin should be dry, but around Temple, the threat for storms will reemerge. The threat will only increase as we head north, as a surface boundary works into the Metroplex. Storms won’t be well organized or anything, so we may see clear skies when we arrive, but it seems more likely that there will be rain around when we hit the south side of Fort Worth. Some of the storms will bring torrential rain, as they always do in Texas.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Lingering showers, perhaps even a rogue thunderstorm will remain over the Dallas-Fort Worth area, and we could see a shower as far north as Oklahoma City, but never fear, high pressure isn’t far behind. Tune into the radio, and you will probably hear the Chiefs game, because there isn’t much else to be concerned about in Kansas. The day will end in a different college town, Lawrence.

DAY THREE (Monday)
Monday will be the easiest driving day of the bunch. There shouldn’t be a problem at all as we progress from Lawrence, through Kansas City and St. Louis north in the state capital of Wisconsin. Temperatures in Madison will even be experiencing the last summer like warm up before a nasty storm moves in during the middle of the week.

Madison, Wisconsin

It’s a college football Saturday tomorrow, and therefore, we need to head to the home of the Wisconsin Badgers to see how it will be as they face Western Illinois.

At 1053PM, CT, Madison was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Madison finds itself at the very back side of a shield of clouds associated iwth a cold front working its way through Michigan at this hour. The clouds will be a blessing tomorrow morning, as temperatures will be pleasant, and fog and dew won’t cover everything.
Behind the trough, weak ridging will invade the region, and at the surface, high pressure will filter in. Temperatures will be significantly cooler than last week, but not so cool as to resign oneself to winter quite yet.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 52
Sunday – Sunny, High 76, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 75, Low 53
Sunday – Sunny High 77, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 72, Low 51
Sunday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 76, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 73, Low 53
Sunday – Sunny High 77, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 72, Low 52
Sunday – Sunny High 78, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny high 73, Low 54
Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 77, Low 52

Looks pretty good this weekend in Wisconsin, doesn’t it? Satellite shows the last wisps of clouds getting ready to leave town.