Tag Archives: Madison

Red Friday

OK, so maybe not the most clever of headlines, but I can still report that the temperatures in Madison on Black Friday were very warm, and many people associate the color red with warmth or heat. I stand by this stupid headline. Anyways, the significant warmth played the primary role in the verification, rather than the spot of drizzle only Victoria-Weather correctly called out. Even with a missed temperature forecast, the Weather Service and WeatherNation tied for the top marks.
Actuals: Thursday – High 44, Low 30
Friday – Trace of rain, High 64, Low 33

Grade C-D

Wet in Wisconsin

Earlier today, there was a weak tornado reported in Madison, though it had more to do with the circulation associated with an area of low pressure, and not really with a strong cold front, which moved through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Madison saw over half an inch of rain with that cold front, and a second bout of rain today, including that rogue tornado on the east side of town. Weatherbug collected the top forecast for the day, thanks to being one of only a handful to get the right precipitation forecast, on top of possession of an above average temperature forecast. It got a little colder than anyone expected on Wednesday, which screwed up every forecast available.
Actuals:  Tuesday – .32 inches of rain, High 79, Low 65
Wednesday – .35 inches of rain, High 70, Low 45

Grade: C-D

Madison, Wisconsin

Today, we are going off to the capital of Wisconsin. I suspect the weather there will be fairly similar to the weather we are seeing in the Twin Cities right now.

At 953PM, CT, Madison was reporting a temperature of 73 with fair skies.  With an area of low pressure moving from the Dakotas into the Canadian Prairies, there was a brisk southerly wind moving through Illinois to Wisconsin. A slow moving cold front is currently progressing through eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but it will take until very late Tuesday to early Monday to arrive.
This system has been marked by a great deal of lightning, despite a fairly low level of energy, so despite the relatively unimpressive model returns when this boundary is projecting when it arrives in Madison, it seems likely that there will be some thunderstorms when the boundary moves through.  A more well defined and progressive upper level trough will phase with the surface low in the Plains, and drive the boundary through Madison much more quickly than it is moving at present. Ass a result, clearing will come to southern Wisconsin by Wednesday evening.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and warm, with increasing cloud and some showers late, High 77, Low 62
Wednesday  – Morning showers and storms, clearing late High 68, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 80, Low 65
Wednesday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 70, Low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 81, Low 65
Wednesday – Periods of clouds and sun (Early rain) High 72, Low 54

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny,  Late rain High 77, Low 64
Wednesday – A 40 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 69, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A 20 % chance of light showers in the afternoon, High 78, Low 65
Wednesday – Partly sunny. A 50% chance of light rain showers in the morning, High 70, Low 54

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 65
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 69, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the evening. High 78, Low 65
Wednesday – Rain until morning, starting again in the evening. High 77, Low 56

Here is a look at the satellite imagery showing just how tall the tops are in the center of the country. Definitely some convection there! 

A little more than was bargained for

Every winter, meteorologists tend to start the same way. First, we overestimate a snow storm or two. Then, chastened by our aggressive forecast, we tone it down a bit, and that works until we get blown out of the water. That last one, the one where we completely underestimate the snow totals, is what we encountered in Madison on Saturday. On Saturday alone, Madison saw nearly 4 inches of snow, on their way towards 7 over the course of the weeekend. he highest total I saw was for only about 3-4 inches. Yikes! At ;east everyone had snow in the forecast on Saturday, so that didn’t set any outlets back, but the flurries on Friday morning leveled the playing field too Victoria-Weather’s advantage as we were the only ones to have it. It wasn’t enough to overtake the NWS, however, because they crushed the temperature forecast.
Actuals: Friday – Trace of snow, High 24, Low 18
Saturday – 3.7″ inches of snow, High 20, Low 12

Grade: B-C

Madison, Wisconsin

It’s late, but the weather is still ongoing. It’s going to be a very chilly forecast!

At 1253AM, CT, Madison was reporting a temperature of 22 degrees with overcast skies. There are reports of flurries across the region as colder air continues to build into the region. The brisk westerly flow will continue tomorrow, with the threat for light snow persisting thanks to the chilly air and modicum of instability.
A broad trough over the northern Rockies is helping establish a weak warm front that will develop late on Saturday. Detached from the primary system, still laying in the Mountains, this boundary will function as its own perturbation, with a healthy batch of snow developing in the Dakotas and Minnesota. It will just reach Madison by the time Saturday comes to a close, with heavier accumulations expected on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Isolated flurry activity, High 20, Low 13
Saturday – Snow becoming likely late, High 20, Low 10

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine in the morning followed by mostly cloudy skies during the afternoon High 21, Low 16
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming cloudy with periods of snow later in the day High21, Low 14

AW: Tomorrow – Very cold with clouds and sunny spells high 22, Low 18
Saturday – Very cold with clouds and sunny spells High 20, Low 9

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 21, Low 18
Saturday – A 50 percent chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy, High 20, Low 11

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 20, Low 16
Saturday – Partly sunny in the morning, then cloudy with light snow likely in the afternoon, HIgh 18, Low 13

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 21, Low 16
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with snow, High 19, Low 10

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until night. Hiigh 23, Low 16
Saturday – Snow (1–3 in.) starting in the evening. High 22, Low 14

Anthony and I have each posted a forecast for Wisconsin tonight, so we will definitely have to see who wears it better. I might be the only one honoring the flurries in the forecat tonight. Here is a look at the satellite imagery for the evening. You can see a whorl up in eastern Canada that continues to drive westerlies and cold air into the Midwest

Perfect weather

One of the appeals of the University of Wisconsin (aside from their terrific meteorology program) is the campus’s position in downtown Madison between Lakes Monona and Mendota (but mostly along Mendota). With school back in session, and Badger fans basking in the glow of a Saturday victory, I’m sure the patios looking out over the lakes were packed in the afternoon the last two days, with temperatures in the low 70s and the sun shining. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast, though it was a good group effort.
Actuals: Sunday – High 70, Low 46
Monday – High 74, Low, 48

Grade: A – B

Madison, Wisconsin to Holland, Michigan

Another fairly short trip for us tonight, save for the passage through the heart of Chicago. It should take us 5 hours to make the trip, though, of course, it won’t. Because Chicago. The average speed will, allegedly be 60.4mph as we cover 296 miles over the road. That should be manageable, even for a drive through Chicago.

High pressure lies over New England, as you may have surmised if you are a regular reader of Victoria-Weather. It extends its western flank over the Great Lakes, which means that conditions are getting a little breezier across the region, particularly in southern Wisconsin. The breeze will actually be off shore when we arrive in Holland, which means that it won’t be terribly cloudy, and should be pretty nice for getting to the lake front.

Madison, Wisconsin

Today was a college football Saturday. Wisconsin won. What will the weather be like in Madison as I’m sure celebrations sweep the state?

At 1053PM, CT, Madison was reporting a temperature of 51 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The rest of the region was clearing out, and temperatures were dipping regularly into the mid to upper 40s throughout Wisconsin. High pressure in the wake of some showers and storms late in the week remains across the region, and is leading to the clear conditions.
While the pattern in the CONUS will continue to be fairly quiet, with high pressure continuing to drift east through the Great Lakes. A developing system over northern Manitoba is expected to produce a strong area of surface low pressure through the tundra. This will allow temperatures to warm back up in Madison, as warm air flows north through the city.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 46
Monday – Warmer, sunny, High 71, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 72, Low 49
Monday – Sunny, High 73, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and nice High 71, Low 45
Monday – Partly sunny and nice High 72, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 47
Monday – Sunny High 73, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 48
Monday – Sunny High 73, Low 49

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 72, Low 48
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 73, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning.High 71, Low 48
Monday – Clear throughout the day.High 73, Low 46

As you can see, there are just a few scattered high clouds across the region tonight. This will keep it from getting much cooler in Madison, so that’s good news.

Dodging Showers

There were a few storms popping off around Madison on Wednesday, but luckily avoided the area and made for a fairly decent day. They weren’t so lucky on Thursday as they had a couple light showers move through the area. Overall, VW and the NWS tied for the top spot.

Wednesday: High 80, Low 56.
Thursday: 0.01″ in late-morning shower. High 77, Low 64.
Forecast Grade: B

Madison, Wisconsin

All right, we have a forecast coming. Heads up!

At 753PM, CT, Madison was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with partly cloudy skies. High pressure is parked at the surface over the Great Lakes, allowing for a respite from the thunderstorms for the region. This will continue through at least the early afternoon tomorrow.
A wave at the lower levels will emerge in the central Plains despite upper level ridging developing. Guidance is universal in its opinion that there will be some heavier rain or a thunderstorm over the Madison region overnight tomorrow and into Thursday morning. There will then be a weak area of high pressure behind the heavier precipitation at the surface, but some baroclinicity introduced by a split in the jet stream will mean some cloudy skies on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and storms in the afternoon and evening, High 79, Low 58
Thursday – Rain in the morning, then cooling at night, High 75, Low 63

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy (late rain), High 83. Low 60
Thursday – Mostly cloudy (early rain), High 81, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 82, Low 47
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and not as warm with a shower or thunderstorm in spots HIgh 77, Low 64

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, High 82, Low 59
Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 76, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning…Then partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of light showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 82, Low 60
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of light showers and thunderstorms High 76, Low 63

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms HIgh 82, Low 59
Thursday – Mostly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 75, Low 63

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the evening. High 82, Low 61
Thursday – Light rain until afternoon.High 80, Low 65

Temperatures will be dropping off after it clears out on Thursday, but it won’t be dark long enough for it to cool off a lot. Here is the satellite now, showing that Wisconsin is pretty free and easy.