Tag Archives: Longview

Shenanigans!

Just before midnight on Sunday night in Longview, Texas, there was a report of light rain. It was at the regular observing time from an automatic station. Skies were clear. Skies were clear everywhere around Longview. I looked at the radar. Nothing. All signs point to this being an erroneous observation by a robot hopped up on too much late night petroleum (or whatever robots drink). The problem is that a couple of outlets DID forecast rain, and you can’t always just dismiss these random reports. The only fair thing, in my mind, was to let it go, and not worry about precipitation for this particular forecast, and let it boil down to temperature analysis. In that regard, Accuweather (who DID have rain in the forecast) earned the top spot, while Victoria-Weather (who did NOT) followed in close pursuit.
Actuals – Sunday – Precipitation – ???, High 85, Low 57
Monday – High 87, Low 63

Grade: C

Longview, Texas

It’s been quite a while since we stopped by Texas for a forecast. Let’s do it!

At 153PM, CT, Longview was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees with overcast skies. There was a big swath of overcast across the Big Piney Woods, thanks largely to dew points that lingered in the low to mid 60s. Visible satellite showed that this thicket of clouds was at the tail end of a cold front extending from the coastal Carolinas, and the vector analysis in the region suggested a weak area of low pressure east of Dallas.
High pressure is moving into the region, however, both at the surface and aloft, which will prevent any further convective development. Moisture off the Gulf will be pulled towards eastward, towards Louisiana, as most synoptic activity will be in eastern Canada or off the Eastern Seaboard. Expect temperatures to be much warmer than average.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 62
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 61

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 82, Low 61
Monday – Partly cloudy skies. High 83, Low 60

AW: Tomorrow – Periods of clouds and sunshine with a shower in spots High 84, Low 62
Monday – Partly sunny and very warm High 84, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 83, Low 62
Monday – Sunny High 85, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then clearing. High 80, Low 62
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 81, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 63
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 84, Low 62
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 61

Boy, that’s a comfortable forecast, exactly the kind of weather I want in my life. It’s stuck in Texas for now, though. Here is a look at the satellite, with clouds settling in right on top of Longview.

Longview, Texas

Today we take a trip to the Lone-Star State and take a gander at what’s happening down that way. Hopefully it’s less gloomy than it has been up our way the last several days!

At 753pm CST, the temperature at Longview, TX was 50 degrees under fair skies. Broad high pressure that is parked over the Gulf of Mexico is keeping much of the Southern Plains to the Deep South high and dry today and looks to continue through Tuesday. Wednesday sees an area of low pressure develop along the OK/TX border. While no precip is expected on Wednesday from this system, clouds will be on the increase. There’s a slight chance of precip on Thursday and Friday from this feature as it lingers in the region, but as far as the next couple days are concerned, it’s looking like a great way to end the month!

Tuesday: Sunny and warm. High 75, Low 47
Wednesday: Increasing afternoon clouds. High 73, Low 51.

TWC: Tuesday: Sunny. High 75, Low 49.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 72, Low 53.

AW: Tuesday: Sunny and warm. High 73, Low 44.
Wednesday: Very warm with some sun. High 74, Low 51.

NWS: Tuesday: Sunny. High 72, Low 46.
Wednesday: Partly sunny. High 72, Low 52.

WB: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 72, Low 47.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. High 72, Low 54.

WN: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 72, Low 46.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 72, Low 52.

FIO: Tuesday: Clear thoughout the day. High 78, Low 46.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until night. High 75, Low 53.

As evidenced by the satellite picture, there really isn’t much of anything going on in East TX tonight. Not much is going to happen in the next couple of days either.

Wallowing in a west wind

There was record heat out in the Pacific Northwest the past couple of days, with 90s in Portland and mid to upper 80s in Longview. Things changed a bit when a weak trough swung through the region and brought a more oceanic flow. There was no rain, but there was definitely a change in air mass, as temperatures only reached the low to mid 70s in Longview on Monday and Tuesday. Debby Downers Accuweather had the coolest forecast, but I guess this time around, it was the most accurate forecast, as Longview failed to even reach model guidance.
Actuals: Monday, High 76, Low 54
Tuesday, High 73, Low 60

Grade: B-C

Longview, Washington

New schedule, and away we go! Southwest Washington is the first destination.

At 715PM, PT, Longview was reporting clear skies. Curiously, their most recent observation failed to include a temperature. Temperatures in the area were around 90 in Portland and in the mid 80s towards Seattle. Mid-upper 80s seems like an appropriate estimate for the area in this case. Longview, despite not having a valif temperature observation, was in a heat advisory. Laminar flow was allowing for surface high pressure in the Pacific Northwest, and the terrifically warm temperatures.
A kink in the upper level flow will move into the region starting overnight Monday into Tuesday. Even though everything seems to lead to rain in the Pacific Northwest, this upper level trough will actually be counterproductive to thunderstorm development, as the fetch will be out of the very dry Great Basin. A weak area of low pressure in Southern California is also working hard to absorb any available moisture that would be drawn into the region. Longview looks to be in good shape until the trough clears the region, and westerly flow off the Pacific takes hold in the region. That said, the approaching wave will lead to an increase in mid and upper level clouds, which will keep temperatures in check.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 81, Low 69
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 76, Low 58

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 59
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and not as warm but pleasant High 77, Low 58
Tuesday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 73, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, High 79, Low 59
Tuesday – Patchy drizzle before 11am. Mostly cloudy, High 74, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy in the morning…Then partly sunny. High 78, Low 59
Tuesday – Cloudy in the morning…Then partly sunny. Patchy morning drizzle. High 74, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 79, Low 59
Tuesday – Mostly Cloudy with Patchy Light Drizzle High 75, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 80, Low 59
Tuesday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 74, Low 56

That’s quite the expected cooldown, and it hinges on those clouds that are inching into the Washington coast here on satellite. I just don’t think that lower level sludge will make it in time to really inhibit temperatures tomorrow. The NAM sure does, as it sits about 7 degrees cooler than the GFS output.
Longview

Santa Fe, New Mexico to Longview, Texas

Texas is a monstrous state. That’s why a trip just from the next state over will take us a day and a half to complete. It’s a 767 mile journey from Santa Fe to Longview, and we will cover it at a pace of 63.9mph, which means the first day of travel will net us 511 miles of the travel. There will be storms in the southern Plains tomorrow, will we run into any on our drive?

DAY ONE (Saturday)
Santa Fe
Low pressure initially generated by the lee of the Rockies, and then enhanced by the upper level wave emerging into the Plains will cycle moisture back into the Rockes, where it will fall as rain, primarily in the higher terrain. There may be a splash of rain as we depart Santa Fe and head south towards I-40, but when we turn east, we will be in the clear for a while. We’ll catch up with the back end of the system very near to the end of the day, but post frontally, we’ll only see some rain, rather than the nasty severe storms they will be seeing around our destination. The day will conclude in Henrietta, Texas, and we’ll only be in the rain between about Electra and Henrietta.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Hey, Sunday will be pretty nice! We’re going to drive through the Metroplex and continue on to Longview in a post-frontal environment, with sunny skies and incresingly hot conditions. I hope your AC is working, or that you enjoy driving with the windows down. MAybe there is a pool in Longview, because it will be in the upper 80s when we check in.
Longview TX

Longview, Texas

Busy day, sorry for the late post. That doesn’t make the forecast any less valid, however.

At 1053PM, CT, Longview was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with overcast skies. There has been a broad area of low pressure over the central Rockies that has been importing moisture through Texas, and a lingering area of surface high pressure over the eastern Seaboard has allowed a broad swath of instability and triggering waves moving through Texas that have had a prolific history of producing severe thunderstorms.
Tomorrow, the low will emerge into the High Plains, and wit will really begin to cause problems, particularly from eastern Kansas to eastern Texas. Storms will blossom through the afternoon, and in northeastern Texas, there is a chance that the entire afternoon will be threatened by the chance for severe storms. There will be quite a bit of convective blowoff that will pollute the atmosphere into the early afternoon, which may inhibit severe storms in the afternoon, but as the cold front arrives closer to the early evening, a little bit of helicity and turning will be introduced, and severe storms and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible. in the afternoon. Fortunately, the front will pass through shortly after midnight, and Saturday will spell a break in the stormy pattern Texas has endured.
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, some severe, High 79, Low 63
Saturday – Hot but sunny and clear, High 89, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, High 84, Low 64
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy; a few p.m. t-storms, some severe; storms can bring downpours, large hail and damaging winds High 80, Low 67
Saturday – Mostly sunny, warmer and less humid High 91, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, High 82, Low 63
Saturday – Mostly sunny (early storms) High 89, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms may be severe in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Cloudy. High 82, Low 63
Saturday – Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Windy. (early storms) High 90, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Thunderstorms Likely High 82, Low 64
Saturday – Mostly Sunny (early storms) High 90, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day. High 75, Low 64
Saturday – Mostly cloudy in the morning.Early rain, High 86, Low 69

Be wary in northeastern Texas tomorrow afternoon and evening. The satellite imagery right now is very cloudy, with a few blobs of leftover clouds from today’s convection.
Longview

A round of rain

The was a lot of rain in eastern Texas this weekend, but in Longview, it was actually quite manageable. The east Texas town only received about half an inch of rain, as opposed to the multiple inches found further to the south. It was a pretty easy forecast, calling for rain this weekend, but forecasters went astray when it came to forecasting high temperatures. Naturally, a cloudy, rainy day tends to be fairly cool as well, but temperatures failed to climb even above 60. Some clearing had been anticipated on Sunday, and since it never arrived, forecasts ended up looking pretty rough. Three outlets, the Weather Service, Weatherbug and WeatherNation had a low forecast that was only 1 degree cooler than the actual high. The Weather channel did end up with a significantly cooler forecast and won the day rather handily.
Actuals: Saturday – .32 inches of rain, High 60, Low 53
Sunday – .25 inches of rain, High 60, Low 53

Grade: B-D

Longview, Texas

I hope everyone is enjoying more basketball than is healthy to watch, but by golly, there might be weather going on.

At 453PM, CT, Longview was reporting a temperature of 63 degrees with overcast conditions. A developing system over southern Texas was extending a tendril of rain that was lying off to the west of Longview and was likely on its way into the area. A sharp upper level trough with weak flow through it is leading to a generally disorganized system, but one laden with very heavy rainfall.
Precipitation will really amplify overnight as flow into the surface feature begins to route from the Gulf of Mexico. The wave, fortunately, will be short enough that the rainfall won’t linger for days, but tomorrow has the potential to be an extremely rainy day. The primary area of low pressure will shift off to the east by Sunday afternoon, however without a strong flow behind the system to motivate things, there may be light rain and clouds continuing through Sunday evening as well. Fortunately, another consequence of the weak flow will be a failure to import much cold air behind the system.
Tomorrow – Very rainy, High 62, Low 55
Sunday – Rain, heavy in the morning, thenn some clearing. High 65, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow – Rain, High 60, Low 54
Sunday – Showers 66, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Occasional rain, High 62, Low 57
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers High 66, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, then showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall High 63, Low 59
Sunday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8am and 2pm, then a slight chance of showers after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy, High 68, Low 59

WB: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Cloudy.High 65, Low 58
Sunday – Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning…Then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 66, Low 59

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Thunderstorms High 63, Low 59
Sunday – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers High 68, Low 59

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain throughout the day. High 61, Low 58
Sunday – Heavy rain until afternoon. High 67, Low 53

Here is the rain coming in. Ominous. Daunting.
Longview

Slammed in the Columbia Gorge

A strong, broad jet sliding into the Northern Plains was pressing into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. There has been a ton of rain and snow in the Mountains, and the trough it is digging out in the Mississippi Valley will culminate in a torrential soaking over the eastern Seaboard through Christmas. As the jet moved into the west coast, it brought rain throughout the region, particularly in the Cascades, but also in the Columbia Gorge and Longview. Longview is somewhat protected from inundation because of the topography that surrounds them, but they did manage to see some showers both Sunday and Monday, with the heaviest precipitation coming on Sunday and only a spot of drizzle on Monday. Temperatures were resilient, and the anticipated cool down didn’t come. The warmest of the forecasters was The Weather Channel, who claimed the prize for Longview.
Actuals: Sunday – .25 inches of rain, High 55, Low 50
Monday – .01 inches of rain, High 53, low 42

Grade: B