Tag Archives: Lancaster

Warm air succeeds

Lancaster was in the midst of a cold air damming situation when we looked at the city last weekend. A wave was moving into the Great Lakes, promising an influx of warmer conditions, but only if you believed one of the model outputs. Most every did believe the warming scenario, but perhaps not as passionately as the GFS. The GFS, it turned out, was on to something, as that model was close to the Monday high, but none of the outlets felt confident enough about forecasting that warm. Victoria-Weather was the closest, and won the forecast with ease.
Actuals: Sunday – High 44 Low 16
Monday – High 54, low 27

Grade: B-D

Virginia Beach, Virginia to Lancaster, Pennsylvania

This is neat one day route, primarily because it starts with a trip on the Bay Bridge/Tunnel at the mouth of Chesapeake Bay, followed by a drive up the Delmarva, Oeninsula. How often do we get road trips through Delaware? It will cover 294 miles and last about 5 1/2 hours, which suggests a pace of 59.6mph. Almost interminable! We don’t drive through Delaware often, so we might a well milk it, I guess.

If you are returning to southeastern Pennsylvania as you depart from your Super Bowl party, the last thing you will want in your recovery is an additional headache from the weather. I’m happy to say, the headaches will be at a minimum. A developing off shore low might bring a little bit of rain and clouds right around Virginia Beach, but who needs that much sunlight after perhaps too many adult beverages the night before? The sun will likely emerge, however, after we arrive on the Delmarva, but we’ll probably buy some time, with the sky not clearing until we hit Maryland’s Eastern Shore. The weather will be warming in Lancaster, but be aware that more rain will be coming by Tuesday.

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

Once again, the Victoria-Weather forecast prescience, getting out of California and headed east, just as the weather in California takes a turn fo the worst.

At 1053PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting haze with clear skies and a temperature of 22 degrees. Clear skies were being seen throughout eastern Pennsylvania, with overcast skies and markedly warmer temperatures through and west of the Appalachians.
A warm front stretches from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes, which is producing extra snow in western New York. There is cold air dammed up against the Appalachians, meaning that Lancaster continues to see chilly air tonight. The chill will erode eventually, but it won’t get as warm in Lancaster as points to the east even as high pressure holds a steady grip on the region.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 44, Low 19
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed High 44, Low 21
Monday – Mostly sunny skies. High 49, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of freezing fog this morning; partly sunny High 46, Low 24
Monday – Areas of morning fog; otherwise, partly sunny; mild High 51, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny,  High 6, Low 20
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 47, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Partly sunny, not as cool. High 43, Low 23
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 31

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 22
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 47, Low 30

FIO: Tomorrow – Foggy in the afternoon. High 41, Low 22
Monday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, low 31

Nearly everyone believes in the power of the warm air, to some degree. Here is a look at the satellite, showing the thick clouds bringing snow over western New York.


Santa Barbara, California to Lancaster, Pennsylvania

We embark on a week-long, 2,738 mile, cross-country road trip, right as weather gets busy in the Southwest. Juuuust peachy.

DAY ONE

We get an early start on the day as we’re playing a race of sorts on Monday. Tropical Storm Rosa is heading towards Baja California and looks to impact the Desert Southwest over the next couple of days. Rain streaming ahead of the storm is already impacting Arizona. Quiet weather is expected for our departure out of Santa Barbara towards Los Angeles, and continues as we head north on I-15 into the Mojave Desert. We head eastward on I-40 and will be following this interstate for quite a while and we’ll start to see some scattered shower activity in the afternoon as we cross over into Arizona. As the evening progresses, we’ll see an increase in shower activity and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms as we make our way to Flagstaff, our stop after the long day.

DAY TWO

The remnants of Rosa are shifting into Arizona this morning, so our start out of Flagstaff will be off to a slow start. On the plus side, the lions share of the heavy rains are getting caught up in the mountains to the south. However, it will still be a messy start to the day as we head out of Flagstaff towards Gallup, NM. The further east we go, the more the weather improves as the rain mostly heads northward into Utah. By the time we reach Albuquerque, the rain should have come to an end. The rest of the afternoon and evening should be fairly quiet as we end the day in Tucumcari, NM.

DAY THREE

Today should be a fairly easy day overall! Low pressure intensifying over the Northern Plains will cause much angst to those from Montana to Minnesota, but with a nose of high pressure extending into the Southern Plains, it should be enough to keep the rain chances away. We could probably see some increased southerly winds during the afternoon as southerly flow feeds the low pressure off north. We cruise on by Oklahoma City in the afternoon and settle in Tulsa for the night.

DAY FOUR

As low pressure continues to explosively develop and shifts into Canada, the cold front trailing this system is dropping into the Mid-MS River Valley and Central Plains. We still expect dry weather as we head out of Tulsa northeastward on I-44, but as we head past Springfield, MO and head further into Missouri, we’ll get closer to encountering showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms along the front. It looks like the activity will hold off to the north of our route long enough to make it to St. Louis, but the threat will remain for the rest of the evening as we head into Effingham, IL for the night.

DAY FIVE

Today will be an abbreviated day of sorts, as we’re only traveling 350 miles to Columbus, OH. But as a new area of low pressure begins to intensity over the Midwest, scattered shower activity looks to develop over the OH Valley throughout the morning. Heavier activity will remain off to the north of our route, but don’t be surprised if we see a stray thunderstorm over OH before we read our destination for the day.

DAY SIX

A cold front will be hot on our heels today as we continue eastward on I-70 then get onto I-76, which will take us the rest of the way. We could see some morning shower activity, but dry weather is expected for much of the day. An approaching cold front will continue to trail us, bringing showers and thunderstorms to OH and NW PA, but luckily it’ll be just slow enough so our final push into Lancaster should be largely an easy task. We’ve made it!

More to come

The weekend could have been a real soaker in Amish country in Pennsylvania, but the two biggest features moving into the Lancaster area worked against each other. A cold front moving out of the Appalachians brought all the rain on Sunday morning, with clearing coming as Nate drew flow away from the boundary. There was a bit of rain as Nate approached late in the day, but each afternoon was dry. Today, the real rain arrived with Nate, and it was much messier. It was a tight forecast, as the increasing overcast kept temperatures pretty close together, so the NWS and WeatherNation tied for the victory, with a narrow defeat of the opposition.
Actuals: Saturday: High 84, Low 60
Sunday – .10 inches of rain, High 79, Low 733

Grade: B-C

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

We’re headed for Amish country with our forecast tonight. Are we going to be able to enjoy a nice weekend in Lancaster, or does Mother Nature have other things in mind?

At 953PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with clear skies, though a few locations around the region were reporting clouds, while the valleys were starting to report some light haze. Lancaster was seeing a dew point of 65, and coupled with the clear skies, it seems as though fog is inevitable tonight.
A sharp mid level trough moving through the Northern Plains is also generating the warm, moisture rich southerly flow in the mid-Atlantic, which will continue tomorrow, making things unseasonably warm, and still fairly sticky, though Tropical Storm Nate, moving into the Gulf will intercept some of the moisture as it tries to flow to the northeast. A cold front associated with the trough in the Plains will arrive early in the day Sunday, bringing some morning showers and storms, but Nate in his press for landfall, will cut off moisture for the cold front, allowing things to dry up Sunday afternoon, despite the increasing rainfall in the southeast. The cold front itself will also stall before passing through Lancaster, meaning an even more vigorous induction of warm, moist air, even without additional rain showers.
Tomorrow – Unseasonably warm, mostly sunny, High 80, Low 61
Sunday – Morning showers, then mostly cloudy, HIgh 81, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 82, Low 62
Sunday – Thunderstorms in the morning, then cloudy skies late.  High 80, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm and muggy with periods of sun and clouds High 82, Low 62
Sunday – Very warm and muggy with periods of rain High 80, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 83, Low 60
Sunday – Rain likely. Mostly cloudy,  High 80, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. Unseasonably warm. Highs 81, Low 62
Sunday – Rain likely. Warm. High 81, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow- Partly cloudy, High 83, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with light rain likely, High 80, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 82, Low 63
Sunday – Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 84, Low 71

Some rain is coming thanks to the feature moving through the Plains, but Nate will indeed move through southeastern Pennsylvania early next week. Right now, satellite is pretty innocuous in the Mid-Atlantic.

 

Rains ruin a weekend

It was raining last Thursday when we started looking at Lancaster for our end of the week forecast. There was a splash of drizzle on Friday, but that didn’t foretell of a quiet day on Saturday, Saturday was drowned out by .83 inches of rain, and it didn’t even clear out for Sunday. I hope local Mothers’ Day activities were at least in gazebos instead of on the deck. The NWS had a great forecast, so there was plenty of time to plan if anyone listened to them.
Actuals:  Friday – .02 inches of rain, High 60, Low 51
Saturday – .83 inches of rain, High 55, Low 48

Grade: A-B

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

We’re going on another forecasting adventure today, taking a trip to southeastern Pennsylvania. This is Amish country, which is important because with the rain on the way, horseback is going to be an efficient way to travel.

At 1253PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting light rain with overcast skies and a temperature of 53 degrees. Eastern Pennsylvania lies at the tail of a cold front extending from the Atlantic and the forward edge of a warm front eminating from the southern Plains, and that convergence is producing a great deal of rain, with the bulk of it closer to Wilkes-Barre and dwindling shower activity in southeastern Pennsylvania.
The feature in the plains will organize as it moves towards the Ohio Valley, and early on Friday there will be a respite from the shower activity.As the feature approches, however, showers will build back into the Lancaster area Friday evening. An inverted trough will develop on the northwestern flank of the feature, extending over eastern Pennsylvania and staying put, effectively ruining Saturday thanks to a cool, persistent rain.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a bit of drizzle, High 59, Low 47
Saturday – Rain throughout the day, High 54, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow -Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 58, Low 47
Saturday – Rain, High 52, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow -Considerable cloudiness with a shower High 58, Low 47
Saturday – Breezy with periods of rain High 53, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of light rain, mainly after 10am. Cloudy High 58, Low 48
Saturday – Rain, High 55, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 50
Saturday – Rain. Rain may be heavy at times in the afternoon, High 53, low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with patchy light drizzle, High 57, low 48
Saturday – Cloudy with rain, High 55, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow A chance of light rain, mainly after 10am. Cloudy High 61, Low 47
Saturday – Rain until evening.High 53, Low 48

Well, that’s gross. Here is the radar from this afternoon, showing that the weekend isn’t really much worse than it is today.

Weather Wayback: Lancaster’s belie two very different days

Back in the middle of October, Lancaster saw a Wednesday with a high of 68 and generally sunny conditions. On Thursday, they saw spits of rain, fog in the morning and clouds throughout the day. The high was still 68. Victoria-Weather ended up claiming victory in little bit of history, almost 2 months ago.
Actuals: Wednesday, October 12th, High 68, Low 41
Thursday October 13th, .01 inches of rain, High 68, Low 46

GradeA-C

Lancaster, Pennsylvania to Altoona, Pennsylvania

We’re looking at a short, cross state trek through the Keystone State for our forecast today. The drive under normal condition is a winding one through the Appalachians, covering 171 miles and lasting 2 1/2 hours. If the weather cooperates, the rate of speed will be about 65mph. I don’t know if I have dropped enough hints, but the weather isn’t likely to be great.
https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Lancaster,+PA/Altoona,+PA/@40.407159,-77.9757789,9z/am=t/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c6248b917214b9:0xb46790d030dbd2d6!2m2!1d-76.3055144!2d40.0378755!1m5!1m1!1s0x89cb91588ee54d01:0xaeb8592c07c6767d!2m2!1d-78.3947359!2d40.5186809

Lancaster
There is a sloppy occluded/cold front moving quickly through the Great Lakes and Midwest today, and it will arrive in Pennsylvania overnight, ensuring a mix of precipitation statewide through the early morning hours. When we leave at 10AM, it will be winding down from west to east, but don’t be surprised to see some wet snow, perhaps moderate initially in Lancaster. The snow will mostly be at an end around Carlisle, save for in the higher western exposures, where lake effect breezes will continue. It will be done snowing heavily in Altoona when we arrive, but don’t be surprised if we see some additional wet flakes through the afternoon after we check in.
altoona