Tag Archives: Lancaster

More to come

The weekend could have been a real soaker in Amish country in Pennsylvania, but the two biggest features moving into the Lancaster area worked against each other. A cold front moving out of the Appalachians brought all the rain on Sunday morning, with clearing coming as Nate drew flow away from the boundary. There was a bit of rain as Nate approached late in the day, but each afternoon was dry. Today, the real rain arrived with Nate, and it was much messier. It was a tight forecast, as the increasing overcast kept temperatures pretty close together, so the NWS and WeatherNation tied for the victory, with a narrow defeat of the opposition.
Actuals: Saturday: High 84, Low 60
Sunday – .10 inches of rain, High 79, Low 733

Grade: B-C

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

We’re headed for Amish country with our forecast tonight. Are we going to be able to enjoy a nice weekend in Lancaster, or does Mother Nature have other things in mind?

At 953PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with clear skies, though a few locations around the region were reporting clouds, while the valleys were starting to report some light haze. Lancaster was seeing a dew point of 65, and coupled with the clear skies, it seems as though fog is inevitable tonight.
A sharp mid level trough moving through the Northern Plains is also generating the warm, moisture rich southerly flow in the mid-Atlantic, which will continue tomorrow, making things unseasonably warm, and still fairly sticky, though Tropical Storm Nate, moving into the Gulf will intercept some of the moisture as it tries to flow to the northeast. A cold front associated with the trough in the Plains will arrive early in the day Sunday, bringing some morning showers and storms, but Nate in his press for landfall, will cut off moisture for the cold front, allowing things to dry up Sunday afternoon, despite the increasing rainfall in the southeast. The cold front itself will also stall before passing through Lancaster, meaning an even more vigorous induction of warm, moist air, even without additional rain showers.
Tomorrow – Unseasonably warm, mostly sunny, High 80, Low 61
Sunday – Morning showers, then mostly cloudy, HIgh 81, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 82, Low 62
Sunday – Thunderstorms in the morning, then cloudy skies late.  High 80, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Very warm and muggy with periods of sun and clouds High 82, Low 62
Sunday – Very warm and muggy with periods of rain High 80, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 83, Low 60
Sunday – Rain likely. Mostly cloudy,  High 80, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. Unseasonably warm. Highs 81, Low 62
Sunday – Rain likely. Warm. High 81, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow- Partly cloudy, High 83, Low 60
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with light rain likely, High 80, Low 68

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 82, Low 63
Sunday – Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 84, Low 71

Some rain is coming thanks to the feature moving through the Plains, but Nate will indeed move through southeastern Pennsylvania early next week. Right now, satellite is pretty innocuous in the Mid-Atlantic.

 

Rains ruin a weekend

It was raining last Thursday when we started looking at Lancaster for our end of the week forecast. There was a splash of drizzle on Friday, but that didn’t foretell of a quiet day on Saturday, Saturday was drowned out by .83 inches of rain, and it didn’t even clear out for Sunday. I hope local Mothers’ Day activities were at least in gazebos instead of on the deck. The NWS had a great forecast, so there was plenty of time to plan if anyone listened to them.
Actuals:  Friday – .02 inches of rain, High 60, Low 51
Saturday – .83 inches of rain, High 55, Low 48

Grade: A-B

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

We’re going on another forecasting adventure today, taking a trip to southeastern Pennsylvania. This is Amish country, which is important because with the rain on the way, horseback is going to be an efficient way to travel.

At 1253PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting light rain with overcast skies and a temperature of 53 degrees. Eastern Pennsylvania lies at the tail of a cold front extending from the Atlantic and the forward edge of a warm front eminating from the southern Plains, and that convergence is producing a great deal of rain, with the bulk of it closer to Wilkes-Barre and dwindling shower activity in southeastern Pennsylvania.
The feature in the plains will organize as it moves towards the Ohio Valley, and early on Friday there will be a respite from the shower activity.As the feature approches, however, showers will build back into the Lancaster area Friday evening. An inverted trough will develop on the northwestern flank of the feature, extending over eastern Pennsylvania and staying put, effectively ruining Saturday thanks to a cool, persistent rain.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a bit of drizzle, High 59, Low 47
Saturday – Rain throughout the day, High 54, Low 44

TWC: Tomorrow -Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 58, Low 47
Saturday – Rain, High 52, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow -Considerable cloudiness with a shower High 58, Low 47
Saturday – Breezy with periods of rain High 53, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of light rain, mainly after 10am. Cloudy High 58, Low 48
Saturday – Rain, High 55, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 50
Saturday – Rain. Rain may be heavy at times in the afternoon, High 53, low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with patchy light drizzle, High 57, low 48
Saturday – Cloudy with rain, High 55, Low 48

FIO: Tomorrow A chance of light rain, mainly after 10am. Cloudy High 61, Low 47
Saturday – Rain until evening.High 53, Low 48

Well, that’s gross. Here is the radar from this afternoon, showing that the weekend isn’t really much worse than it is today.

Weather Wayback: Lancaster’s belie two very different days

Back in the middle of October, Lancaster saw a Wednesday with a high of 68 and generally sunny conditions. On Thursday, they saw spits of rain, fog in the morning and clouds throughout the day. The high was still 68. Victoria-Weather ended up claiming victory in little bit of history, almost 2 months ago.
Actuals: Wednesday, October 12th, High 68, Low 41
Thursday October 13th, .01 inches of rain, High 68, Low 46

GradeA-C

Lancaster, Pennsylvania to Altoona, Pennsylvania

We’re looking at a short, cross state trek through the Keystone State for our forecast today. The drive under normal condition is a winding one through the Appalachians, covering 171 miles and lasting 2 1/2 hours. If the weather cooperates, the rate of speed will be about 65mph. I don’t know if I have dropped enough hints, but the weather isn’t likely to be great.
https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Lancaster,+PA/Altoona,+PA/@40.407159,-77.9757789,9z/am=t/data=!3m1!4b1!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89c6248b917214b9:0xb46790d030dbd2d6!2m2!1d-76.3055144!2d40.0378755!1m5!1m1!1s0x89cb91588ee54d01:0xaeb8592c07c6767d!2m2!1d-78.3947359!2d40.5186809

Lancaster
There is a sloppy occluded/cold front moving quickly through the Great Lakes and Midwest today, and it will arrive in Pennsylvania overnight, ensuring a mix of precipitation statewide through the early morning hours. When we leave at 10AM, it will be winding down from west to east, but don’t be surprised to see some wet snow, perhaps moderate initially in Lancaster. The snow will mostly be at an end around Carlisle, save for in the higher western exposures, where lake effect breezes will continue. It will be done snowing heavily in Altoona when we arrive, but don’t be surprised if we see some additional wet flakes through the afternoon after we check in.
altoona

Lancaster, Pennsylvania to Palm Bay, Florida

Hey! Another road trip! Let’s take a two day trip down to Florida. The trip will last a little more than 1000 miles. Our drive on Wednesday will be a little bit shorter, with the first covering 556 miles with a lightning quick speed of 69.5mph. Let’s see what’s going on along the east coast.


DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Lancaster
There is a monster area of low pressure moving through eastern Canada and dangling a cold front that will eventually clip the mid-Atlantic, but that won’t be until a full 24 hours after we leave the area. We will hit DC early in the day, which is good, becasue that will take a lot out of us, and is no place to drive when at the end of a long day. We will be in South Carolina by the time the day ends, with hardly a cloud in the sky for the entire, warm day. The day will end in the town of Sardinia, northeast of Florence and not far from the Turbeville Correctional Facility. Don’t pick up hitchhikers!

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
We’re in for mostly a dry day again on Wednesday, with temperatures in the low 80s for highs, and not much cooler early in the day. There will be a bit of northeasterly flow off the Gulf that will touch off some isolated thunderstorms in Florida, but we will reach Edgewater before I would worry about the threat for precipitation. Enjoy the beach!
Palm Bay

Rome, Georgia to Lancaster, Pennsylvania

Today we embark on a 2-day, 743-mile journey from GA to PA. It would be fun to take a road trip from ACTUAL Rome, but I don’t think our non-floating car would make the trip. Oh well, that’s for future forecasters to worry about.

Rome

DAY ONE

High pressure is found over much of the Eastern Seaboard, with the closest precip being some light coastal showers from GA to NC. Our route up to Chattanooga then Knoxville and continues up along I-81 over western Virginia will be free and clear of any precip and should be very pleasant! We end our day in Harrisonburg, VA.

DAY TWO

The high pressure found over the coast is being pushed out to sea as a cold front pushes into the Northeast. While some showers and storms could be found further north along the front in NY and perhaps New England, the southern end of it only appears to have some lighter rain showers along it. Our route over western VA up through Central Maryland should be dry but with increasing clouds throughout the day. We could see some of those light showers as we approach Harrisburg and continue eastward into Lancaster.

Lancaster

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

Today we head off to Lancaster, the Pennsylvania one. My sister lives in the California one. I’m sure that forecast would be easier, so maybe it’s a bit more challenging out east?

At 1053pm EDT, the temperature at Lancaster, PA was 51 degrees under fair skies. High pressure sitting over the Northeast is keeping conditions at the surface pretty quiet today, and is expected to last into Wednesday. A cold front moving through the Great Lakes is anticipated to move through the area Thursday afternoon and looks to bring some rain showers to the area. Heavier rains and perhaps a thunderstorm or two looks to pass off to the north, but shouldn’t be TOO much of the threat to Lancaster.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 68, Low 43.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of afternoon showers. High 69, Low 47

TWC: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 67, Low 43.
Thursday: Partly cloudy, slight chance of showers. High 70, Low 51.

AW: Wednesday: Cloudys giving way to some sun. High 68, Low 43.
Thursday: An afternoon shower or two. High 70, Low 49.

NWS: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 67, Low 44.
Thursday: Chance of afternoon showers. High 70, Low 50.

WB: Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High 66, Low 45.
Thursday: Chance of showers. High 66, Low 50.

WN: Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 66, Low 45.
Thursday: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. High 70, Low 50.

FIO: Wednesday: Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 70, Low 41.
Thursday: Foggy in the morning. High 69, Low 52.

Theres a high cloud deck lifting through the Northeast tonight, but nothing is anticipated to come of it as it pushes onward. Next system rolls through on Thursday, which should wet things down a bit.

lnssat

Something fishy

Temperatures never recovered in Lancaster to allow for a mid-afternoon high on Thursday after they began precipitously dropping after rain moved out later in the day on Wednesday. As a result, the low on Wednesday came right before midnight, while Thursday was never warmer than when the clock struck midnight. Here’s the thing, though. The last observation of the day Wednesday was 1153om, while the first on Thursday was at 1253AM. In that time, the temperature dropped by a degree, so forever in the record books, the low on December 2nd, 2015 will be 46, a full degree warmer than the high on December 3rd. Of course, we know it’s more likely that the high was 46 on Thursday. Not that it matters. Regardless of the hijinks, the NWS and Weatherbug tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Wednesday .25 inches of rain, High 54, Low 46
Thursday – High 46, Low 39

Grade A-D