Temperatures crash
Posted by Ryan
I promised a brutal forecast in Great Falls, and I was right. Everything looked OK on Thursday, with temperatures in the low 40s, just like everyone thought. And then? Well, then Friday happened. Clouds, and more importantly an Arctic ridge got wedged against the northern Rockies. High temperatures were lower than some people's forecast lows, reaching only 23, while lows plummeted to 11. This was accompanied by about an inch of snow, and busts for every forecaster. Dramatic, appalling busts. Victoria-Weather managed the top forecast, but it wasn't anything to be proud of, that's for sure.
Thursday - High 41, Low 22
Friday - .8" of snow, High 23, Low 11
Grade: D
Great Falls, Montana to Bismarck, North Dakota
Posted by Anthony
This is probably one of the least visually stimulating road trips I've ever done. Granted we'll be leaving the Rockies at the start of the trip, but after that, it's hundreds of miles in eastern Montana and western North Dakota of little civilization and lots of sky to view. Luckily, this trip is only 545 miles and should be covered in a day's time. So let's get a move-on!
With the arctic airmass entrenched over the northern US, as mentioned in my earlier Bismarck forecast, some chilly air will be found throughout much of the region come morning. However, with a slightly warmer airmass pushing up over the Northern Rockies into Western Montana, this is going to kick up some snow showers over the Great Falls area later on Friday. There could be some patchy fog and some low clouds to start the day, but we should avoid the snow showers as we trek eastward along HWY 87. As we move into midday, the clouds should thin out as we move away from the mountains, leaving more sunny skies for us to enjoy. As we move into Eastern Montana, and eventually into Western North Dakota, clear skies and light winds will greet us and make for smooth sailing for the remainder of the trip into Bismarck. Hooray we made it!... Now what?
Great Falls, Montana
Posted by Ryan
Hoo, boy, this forecast is going to be a nightmare. The Rockies are brutal.
At 953PM, MT, Great Falls was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with partly cloudy skies. A seasonably strong northerly jet was riding the Rockies, and though there was no discernible surface boundary associated with this flow, it was triggering some high clouds and snow west of Great Falls.
As the jet strengthens and shifts into the High Plains, an additional, weaker jet streak will move just to the south of Great Falls, manufacturing a sharp trough along the lee of the northern Rockies. Tomorrow will be dry in Great Falls, but the angle of flow associated with this trough on Friday makes it entirely possible that upsloping flow will generate some substantial snow.
Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy, High 43, Low 28
Friday - Snow in the afternoon, with clouds and fog likely. 2-5" of snow possible, High 28, Low 17
TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny skies. High 42, Low 26
Friday - Mostly cloudy with snow flurries and snow showers, especially in the afternoon. High 33, Low 29
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny High 40, Low 24
Friday - Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 34, Low 17
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 28
Friday - Snow likely, mainly after 11am. Mostly cloudy High 31, Low 22
WB: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy (rain/snow in the evening) High 43, Low 29
Friday - A chance of snow in the morning...then snow likely in the afternoon High 30, Low 23
The Weather Channel is legitimately that different from everyone else. Who knows, man. Radar with a few flurries showing up here and there.
Quite a disparity
Posted by Ryan
We forecast in the mountains of eastern Montana, and as anyone can tell you, it's a challenging place to forecast for. It was for 4 of our forecasters on Tuesday when we put together the forecast for Great Falls. Victoria-Weather's was the only forecast to call for a cool down after the rain on Thursday, and it paid off, as the low on Thursday came late and dipped to 35. This bugs me, because I actually brought our low up when seeing that the meteorological consensus was that the front wouldn't carry as much cold air behind it. This is why your mom tells you to believe in yourself. Even after all of that, however, VW had a much better forecast than everyone else.
Actuals: Wednesday - .08" of rain High 71, Low 51
Thursday - .06" of rain, High 59, Low 35
Grade: B
Great Falls, Montana to Fayetteville, Arkansas
Posted by Ryan
We'll be spending the end of the week in the Plains, as we swiftly cover 1467 miles in three days, the third shorter than the first two. Given the lenient speed limits where we are traveling, we'll cover some serious ground every day, about 536 miles a day at an average of 67mph. Tough to argue with that.
DAY ONE
A cold front will be sweeping into town as we depart Great Falls, bringing some cold air, wind and rain with it. We should be able to stay ahead of it, as the system is going to tend to shift back to the north, rather than to the east, and by the time we turn south from Moore, Montana, we will likely be in the clear. Of course, when we turn south, the front will catch up with again, and we will be dodging showers and storms right through Billings before the threat finally, truly comes to an end. A nasty thunderstorm complex in the southern Plains will stay south of our route into South Dakota, and we will likely be dry with some partly cloudy skies over Kadoka, South Dakota, which is in the Buffalo National Grassland, and is our stop for the night.
DAY TWO
Any and all inclement weather is expected to have to shift out of the Missouri Valley, for the most part, as we drive on Friday. There will be some morning showers in Kadoka, but the drive through South Dakota, Iowa and into Missouri is expected to be pretty decent. The day will end in Mound City, Missouri.
DAY THREE
Saturday too will not be a problem behind the wheel. A temporary high pressure will establish itself over western Missouri and the Ozarks. The drive into Fayetteville will be enjoyable and easy, so enjoy the scenery on the trip into town.
Great Falls, Montana
Posted by Ryan
We have standards here at Victoria Weather. We wouldn't. for example. allow ourselves to forecast fore merely Good Falls. No no, we're not happy unless it's GREAT Falls.
At 953PM, MT, Great Falls was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with cloudy skies. A system centered further south in Colorado managed to extend an inverted trough into Montana, triggering some scattered showers and thunderstorms, of which some were spanning from Deer Lodge to south of Havre, with some stronger thunderstorms towards central Montana. Another shower tonight certainly could not be ruled out.
The upper level pattern is somewhat active. The precipitation in the area at this time is associated with a weak trough, independent of the overall flow. There will be a break in the shower activity for Great Falls on Thursday as this feature shifts east and dissipates, however a much stronger, more organized jet trough is angling into the Pacific Northwest, generally promising gustier winds. The strong trough will stall out and draw the independent wave to be absorbed back into the mean flow. Expect rain to redevelop in the afternoon, continuing a rainy midweek pattern and ushering in some cooler air.
Tomorrow - Scattered showers and storms. High 71, Low 51
Thursday - Afternoon thunderstorms redevelop, High 60, Low 42 (non standard)
TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy skies. High 68, Low 53
Thursday Partly cloudy and windy. High 60, Low 48
AW: Tomorrow- Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 73, Low 48
Thursday - Cooler with times of clouds and sun; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm around High 61, Low 44
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 68, Low 48
Thursday - A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 63, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. High 70, Low 50
Thursday - Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. High 65, Low 45
A look at the radar shows all those showers and storms I was JUST TALKING ABOUT.
