Quite a disparity
Posted by Ryan
We forecast in the mountains of eastern Montana, and as anyone can tell you, it's a challenging place to forecast for. It was for 4 of our forecasters on Tuesday when we put together the forecast for Great Falls. Victoria-Weather's was the only forecast to call for a cool down after the rain on Thursday, and it paid off, as the low on Thursday came late and dipped to 35. This bugs me, because I actually brought our low up when seeing that the meteorological consensus was that the front wouldn't carry as much cold air behind it. This is why your mom tells you to believe in yourself. Even after all of that, however, VW had a much better forecast than everyone else.
Actuals: Wednesday - .08" of rain High 71, Low 51
Thursday - .06" of rain, High 59, Low 35
Grade: B
Great Falls, Montana to Fayetteville, Arkansas
Posted by Ryan
We'll be spending the end of the week in the Plains, as we swiftly cover 1467 miles in three days, the third shorter than the first two. Given the lenient speed limits where we are traveling, we'll cover some serious ground every day, about 536 miles a day at an average of 67mph. Tough to argue with that.
DAY ONE
A cold front will be sweeping into town as we depart Great Falls, bringing some cold air, wind and rain with it. We should be able to stay ahead of it, as the system is going to tend to shift back to the north, rather than to the east, and by the time we turn south from Moore, Montana, we will likely be in the clear. Of course, when we turn south, the front will catch up with again, and we will be dodging showers and storms right through Billings before the threat finally, truly comes to an end. A nasty thunderstorm complex in the southern Plains will stay south of our route into South Dakota, and we will likely be dry with some partly cloudy skies over Kadoka, South Dakota, which is in the Buffalo National Grassland, and is our stop for the night.
DAY TWO
Any and all inclement weather is expected to have to shift out of the Missouri Valley, for the most part, as we drive on Friday. There will be some morning showers in Kadoka, but the drive through South Dakota, Iowa and into Missouri is expected to be pretty decent. The day will end in Mound City, Missouri.
DAY THREE
Saturday too will not be a problem behind the wheel. A temporary high pressure will establish itself over western Missouri and the Ozarks. The drive into Fayetteville will be enjoyable and easy, so enjoy the scenery on the trip into town.
Great Falls, Montana
Posted by Ryan
We have standards here at Victoria Weather. We wouldn't. for example. allow ourselves to forecast fore merely Good Falls. No no, we're not happy unless it's GREAT Falls.
At 953PM, MT, Great Falls was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with cloudy skies. A system centered further south in Colorado managed to extend an inverted trough into Montana, triggering some scattered showers and thunderstorms, of which some were spanning from Deer Lodge to south of Havre, with some stronger thunderstorms towards central Montana. Another shower tonight certainly could not be ruled out.
The upper level pattern is somewhat active. The precipitation in the area at this time is associated with a weak trough, independent of the overall flow. There will be a break in the shower activity for Great Falls on Thursday as this feature shifts east and dissipates, however a much stronger, more organized jet trough is angling into the Pacific Northwest, generally promising gustier winds. The strong trough will stall out and draw the independent wave to be absorbed back into the mean flow. Expect rain to redevelop in the afternoon, continuing a rainy midweek pattern and ushering in some cooler air.
Tomorrow - Scattered showers and storms. High 71, Low 51
Thursday - Afternoon thunderstorms redevelop, High 60, Low 42 (non standard)
TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy skies. High 68, Low 53
Thursday Partly cloudy and windy. High 60, Low 48
AW: Tomorrow- Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 73, Low 48
Thursday - Cooler with times of clouds and sun; an afternoon shower or thunderstorm around High 61, Low 44
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 68, Low 48
Thursday - A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 63, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. High 70, Low 50
Thursday - Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain showers. High 65, Low 45
A look at the radar shows all those showers and storms I was JUST TALKING ABOUT.
