With a system passing just south of the Fargo area during the middle week, there was great anticipation for a momentous warm up across the area when it departed. Temperatures proceeded to plummet overnight into Wednesday morning as clear skies and a bit of a cooler flow filtered into the region. That was the fatal flaw in the forecast. The high on Wednesday didn’t recover to match the expected highs, ensuring that there wasn’t a really good forecast to be had. I’m not going to say everything was all bad from a forecasting standpoint, however, as meteorologists and the weather recovered nicely, with a high of 70. WeatherNation was solid on Thursday, and ultimately had the privilege of claiming victory for the whole day.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 63, Low 41
Wednesday – High 70, Low 43
Let’s keep up our good run of posting with a look to the Dakotas for a forecast.
At 953PM, CT, Fargo was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with clear skies. A weak disturbance at the northern periphery of a stronger low in the Front Range was producing light rain over south central North Dakota, but it will carry well south of Fargo, which will enjoy clear skies overnight, with a few passing high clouds.
The trough responsible for the rain and storms in the southern Plains will shift to the east, leaving an upper level pattern vacuum. This will be filled by surface high pressure in the Dakotas, which will be supplemented by a developing ridge that won’t move into the area until late on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 66, Low 48
Thursday – Sunny, High 67, Low 41
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 66, Low 48
Thursday – A mainly sunny sky. High 58, Low 40
AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Periods of clouds and sunshine High 67, Low 39
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 68, Low 49
Thursday – Sunny, High 69, Low 41
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then clearing. High 67, Low 49
Thursday – Sunny, High 67, Low 40
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 68, Low 48
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 41
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until afternoon. High 72, Low 50
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 70, Low 42
Here is a look at the satellite, showing some high clouds in North Dakota. Radar shows a lot more rain than is actually falling in North Dakota, which is why you get this and not the radar. It’s misleading!
Obviously, the Dakotas get their reputation as iceboxes for a reason, but in early December, -8 is still unusually cold. That’s what registered on the thermometer early on the morning of December 10th as Anthony put together the forecast for Fargo, but there was good news on the way, as a dose of warm air was coming. Of course, to earn the warm up, there needed to be a slug of snow preceding the front. It wasn’t as much as many outlets anticipated, ceasing after just over a couple inches, In Fargo, just as big a deal was the fact that the snow was not accompanied by winds more than 14mph. Victoria-Weather had the best temperature forecast, and ultimately the best overall forecast.
Actuals – December 10th – .2 inches of snow, High 7, Low -8
December 11th – 2.1 inches of snow, High 13, Low -2
Grade – B-D
Saturday is a big day in Fargo, as host school NDSU is taking on rival SDSU in the playoffs. Luckily, the game is played in the Fargodome, so the outside conditions won’t affect play. But how will it affect the thousands of fans making the trek to go see it?
At 153am CST, the temperature at Fargo, ND was -8 under partly cloudy skies. High pressure is found over the Dakotas early this morning, causing some downright frigid temperatures over the region. This feature is expected to weaken during the day as a disturbance continues to develop over the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Snow is expected to start in the late evening hours, but not really anticipated to pick up steam until Sunday morning as the main part of the system shifts into the Central Plains/Mid-MS River Valley. Luckily the temperatures will rebound into the teens thanks to the cloud cover and precipitation, but that’s it. Frigid temperatures will remain well into next week. Winter is taking expanding its icy grip on the region and won’t let go anytime soon.
Saturday: Scattered snow showers in the evening. High 7, Low -12.
Sunday: Heavier snow through afternoon then dissipating. High 15, Low 1.
TWC: Saturday: Mostly cloudy. High 7, Low -11.
Sunday: Morning snow showers. High 16, Low 4.
AW :Saturday: A little afternoon snow. High 4, Low -14.
Sunday: Snow at times. High 15, Low 1.
NWS: Saturday: Partly sunny then chance of snow. High 5, Low -9.
Sunday: Snow likely. High 14, Low 3.
WB: Saturday: 40% chance of light snow. High 1, Low -11.
Sunday: 70% chance of light snow. High 15, Low 1.
WN: Saturday: Mostly cloudy with light snow. High 9, Low -9.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with light snow. High 14, Low 5.
FIO: Saturday: Light snow starting in the afternoon. High 9, Low -13.
Sunday: Snow (2-5″) until evening. High 15, Low -3.
I’m sitting over here kicking myself. I originally had a forecast of a few degrees warmer for Fargo, putting highs in the low 70s, but that was so much warmer than guidance or the competition, I balked. Anyways, the high ended up in the low 70s. Victoria-Weather was still the warmest, and claimed victory, bolstered by the fact that rain stayed well south of North Dakota’s largest city.
Saturrday – High 72, Low 40
Sunday – High 73, Low 49
This drive is going to take us through both cities that recently played in the World Series. The trip will cover 3 days and 1539 miles. Typically in November, this route would be seem silly, but the weather in the Dakotas has been terrific. Perhaps for that reason, we will average a pace of 67.9mph, expecting to cover 543 miles on a given day. Gotta get there!
DAY ONE (Saturday)
High pressure is parked over the northeastern quadrant of the country. And it’s a ridge, too, none of that cold high pressure business that just sucks the life out of you in the middle of winter. Enjoy the drive, West Virginia is very nice to look at. We’ll stop for the day in Boston Heights, SSE of Cleveland.
DAY TWO (Sunday)
This is a really solid ridge in the heart of the country, I tell you. We’ll pass through Chicago and into southern Wisconsin without any issues. We’ll end the day in Wisconsin Dells, which is the Water Park Capital Of the World. Some might even be open with this late season surge in warmth.
DAY THREE (Monday)
A low moving through Canada is expected to tap into a plume of moisture dragged north from the Gulf of Mexico, but guidance is split on whether or not rain will fill in across Minnesota. It won’t be as heavy as it will be in western Ontario, certainly, and not as heavy as eastern Nebraska, either. The best chance for gaps will be right along our route, however from St. Cloud, Minnesota to Fargo, we should anticipate a little bit of rain, at the very least. Fargo will be a touch cooler than any other leg of the trip, but hey, we’re in NoDak!
Hello, happy weekend everybody! Who wants to enjoy some fun forecasting in North Dakota?
At 753PM, CT, Fargo was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with clear skies. Typically this time of year, a clear sky would mean a freeze warning, but the light southerly flow across the region is indicative of the Red River Valley’s position on the western end of a strong ridge in the center of the country.
Lee troughing will only amplify the warming flow as the weekend continues. There is an upper level trough moving into the region for the beginning of next week, but the threat for rain will hold off until next week. Instead, Fargo will be left with a very pleasant weekend forecast, particularly for the first weekend in November.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 40
Sunday – Sunny with increasing clouds late, High 69, Low 44
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 67, Low, 41
Sunday – Wind increasing. A few clouds from time to time. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible.High 67, Low47
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and pleasantly warm with the temperature approaching the record of 70 set in 1975 High 65, Low 40
Sunday – Breezy and mild with times of clouds and sun (late showers) High 64, Low 46
NWS: tomorrow – Sunny, High 65, low 41
Sunday – Sunny (late rain), High 65, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 63, Low 40
Sunday – Partly Sunny, High 63, Low 47
WN: Tomorrow -Sunny, High 63, Low 43
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 46
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until morning. High 69, Low 41
Sunday – Mostly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 68, Low 46
The short range models have a real warming trend. I’m buying it, especially since it was 66 today. Satellite is extremely quiet tonight!
The east coast, quite famously, received a boatload of snow this weekend. It’s going to take a few weeks for that snow to melt! Well, it snowed this weekend in Fargo as well. It was 1/10th of an inch of the white stuff and, well, that’s not going to melt for a while either. That’s what snow does in the Upper Midwest. There is a dusting, and then it just stays there until April. For our verification purposes, it’s important to note everyone expected a dry forecast, and that Forecast.io had the top temperature forecast.
Actuals: Saturday, High 32, Low 13
Sunday .01 inches of snow, High 34, Low 21
This is quite the remote trip, isn’t it? The drive from eastern Idaho to eastern North Dakota will cover a lot of eastern Montana and all of North Dakota, covering 964 miles and lasting a little longer than a day and a half. The course through the remotest part of the lower 48 will allow us a swift pace of 69.2mph. That means day one will consist of a 553 mile drive. Let’s get it started, then!
DAY ONE (Saturday)
Despite the climactic tumult found out east this weekend, it will be pretty quiet in the northern High Plains. A shortwave crashing into the coast over the Pacific Northwest will be chasing us for much of the day, but we should stay ahead of the wet weather for the day. It will be unusually warm, with temperatures near freezing throughout most of our drive, which will end at exit 192 off of I-94 in rural eastern Montana. It’s the best I can do.
DAY TWO (Sunday)
The system will really dry up overnight as it tries to get into the Dakotas. We will once again keep our distance between ourselves the precipitation. By the end of the day, it will snow in western North Dakota, but that will be long after we have passed through the region. Instead, we will end the trip in Fargo in unseasonably warm conditions, though with a chance for some snow coming Monday. At least the drive was nice.