Tag Archives: albany

Verification

Life out from under the ice

One section of the country that avoided the nasty weather this weekend was the southeastern United States. High pressure leads to good forecasts, and that was the case for the weekend forecast for Albany, Georgia, where high temperatures fell perfectly in line with what we had to say at Victoria-Weather. If there was an error that everyone had, it was forecast lows that were a shade too warm, but nearly everyone came through with a solid forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 78, Low 46
Sunday – High 77, Low 48

Grade: A-C

Forecast

Albany, Georgia

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So many Albany’s, so little time.

At 1253AM, ET, Albany was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with clear skies. The clear skies had overspread the entirety of Georgia, as well as the surrounding locales.
The tail of a cold front draped across the Ohio Valley will deteriorate, after which a warm front from the central Plains will move in. During that time, surface high pressure will remain in place over Georgia while the upper level flow deteriorates along the Ohio, only to reemerge late. Sunny skies and warm temperatures are coming to Albany.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 78, Low 48,
Sunday – Sunny, High 77, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 47
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 75, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and warm with the temperature approaching the record of 80 set in 1960 High 77, Low 51
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a passing shower; very warm High 76, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, sunny, High 78, Low 49
Sunday – Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 78, Low 50

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, areas of fog in the morning. High 75, Low 51
Sunday – Partly sunny, Patchy fog in the morning, High 74, Low 52

WN: Tomorrow – Mosly sunny, High 79, Low 50
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 50

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the evening. High 80, Low 49
Sunday – Mostly cloudy starting overnight. High 77, Low 50

We are all, every single one of us, forecasting over the model output. Perhaps all this clearing south of the boundary in the Ohio Valley is why.

Road Trip

Albany, New York to Tallahassee, Florida

Shall we head for the beach? I definitely think so, especially if we are coming from downstate New York. Tallahasee isn’t on the beach, but it’s a lot closer than Albany. The drive between the cities will last 2 days, with the second day lasting a couple extra hours. The cities are 1239 miles apart, which will lead to a swift I-95 pace of 69.6mph. The first day in the car will be over after 556.8 miles, leaving the spare for Saturday. Let’s get progressively warmer with a southward journey.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir/Albany,+New+York/Tallahassee,+Florida/@36.3587892,-83.5046482,6z/am=t/data=!4m13!4m12!1m5!1m1!1s0x89de0a34cc4ffb4b:0xe1a16312a0e728c4!2m2!1d-73.7562317!2d42.6525793!1m5!1m1!1s0x88ec8a5187124b53:0xebee077ad4fdb1f8!2m2!1d-84.2807329!2d30.4382559

DAY ONE (Friday)

There is a quickly diminishing cold front sliding through New York and the Mid-Atlantic this evening. There is a break in the action in downstate New York, however a brisk west wind will be bringing temperatures down overnight, encouraging us, no doubt, to get the heck out of town. The boundary will continue to shift south and split in two. We won’t see any rain through the day on Friday, but south of New York City, we will notice a more aggressive breeze. After we pass through the DC area, the overcast will become noticeably darker. Some gloomy skies will accompany us all the way to Mount Pleasant, North Carolina, just across the Virginia border.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
The boundary will see a weak area of low pressure develop over the Appalachians, dragging moisture off the Bight of Georgia and some instability from over the Blue Ridge Mountains. The recipe won’t be one for heavy precipitation, but the Carolinas will be a little damp as we drive through them, but drier air will emerge as we ht Savannah and Jacksonville. IT will still be humid, of course, but the threat for rain will stay in the Palmetto State. It should be pretty warm as we slice across north Florida. Yes, the last hour or so from Tallahassee to the beach will be worth it.

Verification

Never forecast while on vacation

I put together a forecast for Albany before Christmas, and before the internet went out for good for me for the weekend. Fortunately, I didn’t have to watch in slow motion as the forecast came completely off the rails. The biggest issue, across the board, was the low on Christmas Eve, which didn’t dip even below freezing, let alone into the 20s. The lowest mark was 36 degrees, which was a rather high total for nearly every outlet. The high on Friday also kicked up to the mid 40s, which was at several degrees warmer than anyone expected. Despite the forecast going astray, at least it was warmer and less snowy! The only precipitation that fell was a little bit of drizzle on Christmas Eve. Accuweather claimed a Pyrrhic victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 45, Low 30
Saturday – .05 inches of rain, High 41, Low 36

Grade: C-D

Road Trip

Kingsport, Tennessee to Albany, New York

Hello! Merry Christmas! I have been pinned down in Florida the last several days without a smidgen of internet service. It was a nice break, but wholly unexpected. Now I’m back in Minnesota, in the midst of a sleet storm, and I’m ready to forecast. This trip will last a day and a half, covering 740 miles at a pace of 67mph. The full day will cover about 535 miles, with less than half a day remaining for Tuesday. It might be nice to have a shorter drive then, though, if you know what I mean.

DAY ONE (Monday)

A brisk southwesterly flow will import an unseasonably warm dose of Gulf air into the southeastern United States tomorrow. If we are cognizant, we may appreciate the fact that the warmth is related to a very strong area of low pressure to our west. If we would like to remain blissfully unaware, then we can appreciate the late December warm up at face value, and appreciate a fairly easy drive through Appalachia. The brisk flow may lead to a few spots of drizzle, and definitely some clouds around the peaks, but the roads will be free of ice and snow, and the stops for gas will be tolerable. Later in the day, clouds and the threat for drizzle may increase ever so slightly as we arrive in Pennsylvania, but not so much that it will do anything, aside from making the horizon rather bleak. Fairly appropriate for this day in particular, we will call it a night in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania. I hope there is room at the inn.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
The cold front that loomed to our west on Monday will arrive on Tuesday. There might now be any thunder within the band of showers as we head from Bethlehem to Albany, but there will likely be some spots of very heavy rain. The temperature will be on its way towards something a bit more seasonable, though it will still be fairly mild for this time of year upon our arrival in Albany.

Forecast

Albany, New York

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Hello! I’m on vacation, but everyone here and around me is relaxing, so I’m going to step in and offer up this forecast.

At 551PM ET, Albany was reporting a temperature of 36 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The remnants of a rainy system moving through the Canadian Maritimes is bringing clouds  to the regions. The upper level support for this system is a narrow jet trough, which means it will shift quickly out of the region. High pressure will build behind and tomorrow looks to be a quite, unseasonably warm day.
The next round of wet weather will be born of a quickly narrowing and flattening trough.While the support is diminishing, a healthy round of precipitation will arrive in Albany early in the day, initially with mixed precipitation, and transitioning to rain. The boundary will be deeply occluded, so a drop in temperature behind the front is not expected.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 24
Saturday – Rain snow turning to rain, High 39, Low 25

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds. A few flurries or snow showers possible. High 42, Low, 29
Saturday – Steady light rain in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. High 38, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 40, Low 30
Saturday – A bit of rain, some freezing in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 41, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 28
Saturday – Rain and snow likely, becoming all rain after 10am. Mostly cloudy, High 39, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 38, Low 30
Saturday – Cloudy, Rain or snow in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon Hgh 36, Low 29

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, Hgh 41, Low 28
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of a light wintry mix, HIgh 39, Low 30

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until night. High 39, Low 27
Saturday – Mixed precipitation starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 37, Low 30

I would like to say it will be a white Christmas, but I really can’t. Expect more of a ainy, brown Christmas. The satellite shows the remnant clouds behind the cold front.

Verification

Acing Albany

Albany is far enough to the south that temperatures don’t really vary from day to day, not unless there are showers or thunderstorms directly on top of you. We are reaching a transitional season, though, and a cold front swung through the southeast yesterday. The tail of the front was just north of the Albany area, and cold air never filtered into our forecast city. As a result, temperatures remained very similar from Monday to Tuesday. Most importantly for Victoria Weather, the temperatures hung on to their summertime figures, which put us in a great spot for victory.
Actuals: Monday .01 inches of rain, High 93, Low 71
Tuesday – High 91, Low 68

Grade: A-C

Forecast

Albany, Georgia

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We’re headed down to south Georgia. It’s still hot and humid in south Georgia this time of year, which means there will likely be a bit of precipitation in our forecast.

At 353PM, ET, Albany was reporting a temperature of 92 degrees with mostly clear skies. There were a few thunderstorms in the Florida Panhandle thanks to a light sea breeze, with some lighter storms cropping up in southwest Georgia. Flow aloft is decidedly southerly, with the thunderstorm activity generally remaining confined west of a Perry, Florida – Albany line.
A surface low over the Bight of Georgia is going to help tamp down a lot of convection over north Georgia, but a deep area of low pressure in the Canadian Prairies will maintain an open Gulf, and a threat of afternoon showers and storms in the Albany area. The tail of a cold front associated with that Canadian low will move into the Peach State on Tuesday morning, making the afternoon a bit more active than Monday’s.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms in the area, High 93, Low 71
Tuesday – Thunderstorms a bit more widespread, High 91, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early. Scattered thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.High 89, Low 7-
Tuesday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 90, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine mixing with clouds and humid (PM Storms) High 91, Low 71
Tuesday – Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm in spots High 89, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 9am. Partly sunny, High 89, Low 71
Tuesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9am. Partly sunny, High 88, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 89, Low, 72
Tuesday – Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 90, Low 71

WN: Weathernation is broken

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain in the morning and evening. High 92, Low 70
Tuesday – Light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 93, Low 69

Weathernation is not able to find Albany in it’s system when performing a search. Sorry, Albany residents looking for a fine forecast from WeatherNation. Thunderstorms aren’t particularly strong, but they are showing up all over the place around Albany.

albany

Verification

Dog Days of Spring

Temperatures in Albany were in the low 90s with lows dipping to the mid 60s overnight. These are very toasty temperatures, of course, and they are even a little unusual for south Georgia in May. Sweltering heat is the province of August, not late May! Fortunately, there was ample warning, so air conditioning could be turned on as forecasts were generally pretty good. The Weather Channel and Accuweather had exactly the same forecast, and they met Forecast.io at the top spot.
Actuals: Saturday – High 91, Low 66
Sunday – High 93, Low 65

Grade A-B

Forecast

Albany, Georgia

1 Comment

I am, as I said, in Omaha, this weekend, which has nothing to do with Albany, but I always take pleasure in thinking about stuff like that. Forecasting for Albany from Omaha. Crazy!

At 253PM, ET, Albany was sitting at a sweltering 88 degrees with sunny skies. There was a fairly brisk easterly wind across the region attempting to make things tolerable, and dew points only in the mid 50s seemed to be cooperating.
High pressure over the southeastern US has kept an area of low pressure associated with a broad upper trough stashed away in the central Plains, allowing the dry air to encompass Albany. While that low hasn’t had enough organization to overtake the resolute ridge, there is an area of nascent tropical development in the bight of Georgia. While the remnant ridge will still force the Plains system north towards New England when it finally starts moving, and that trough will draw the tropical feature north with it, the weakened flow will mean typically soupy summer time air will return to Albany.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 89, Low 66
Sunday – Partly cloudy, more humid. High 90, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 90, Low, 66
Sunday – Mostly sunny skies. High 92, Low, 67

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasant High 90, Low 66
Sunday – Partly sunny High 92, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 89, Low 65
Sunday – Sunny High 90, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 89, Low 67
Sunday – Sunny High 91, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 90, Low 64
Sunday – Mostly SunnyMostly Sunny High 90, Low 66

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 91, Low 64
Sunday – Clear throughout the day. High 94, Low 64

Albany is a pretty soggy city most summers, but it looks like they will continue to stay dry for at least a couple more days. Here is the course of that tropical feature, though it should remain well below hurricane criteria.

Albany