It can be pretty muggy in south Texas, hotter than most of us northerners an even comprehend. A temperature of 83 degrees, though, is pretty palatable, even with some humidity. That’s where it sat in Victoria on the 14th and 15th if this month, an all together comfortable set of days in a part of the world that can be notoriously uncomfortable. It was a little uncomfortable as well for The Weather Channel, who won the day, but by a narrow margin. Actuals: April 14th, High 83, Low 63 April 15th, High 83, Low 70
We’re headed westward on a three day trek out of Texas. Expect a pace of 66.8mph for our 3 1/2 days of travel. That means full days will cover about 534 miles, and we will see quite a bit of southwestern, desert and Spanish inspired sites. This is the time of year to travel through the area, as it won’t be too stormy, and it won’t be too hot. Yet.
DAY ONE (Wednesday)
Victoria, Texas
There is a large system moving through the center of the country today, and a cold front will sweep through east Texas without fanfare this afternoon. One might lead you to believe that will completely clear out the atmosphere behind it, but it will not. Another high Plains disturbance will start the wheels in motion almost immediately. This won’t do a lot to our drive tomorrow, but some more moisture being pulled into the region will mean some popcorn clouds through Fort Stockton. After that though, yeah, it will be pretty quiet, and the day will end in Wild Horse, Texas, which is north of the Big Bend, but about as far from civilization as you can get.
DAY TWO (Thursday) The drive from Wild Horse in west Texas will be briefly enlivened by passage through El Paso, Las Cruces and Tucson, but not by much weather. There is some signal for a little bit of moisture south of Arizona, so sure, maybe a cloud or two as we approach the south metro of Phoenix, but I’m not buying into it too much. I said it won’t be hot in Arizona for the drive, and by that I mean it won’t be as hot as it can be in Arizona, with temperatures in the mid 90s as we arrive in Chandler, on the south side of the Phoenix metro area on Thursday afternoon.
DAY THREE (Friday) This is the kind of day one should expect when traversing the Mojave. Skies will be mostly clear and temperatures will be warm. We’ll make it to the 5 and head north around Santa Clarita, ending up in Lost Hills in the Central Valley, and call our day good.
DAY FOUR (Saturday) This is a pretty simple northbound trek to our final destination. We’ll see Stockton and Sacramento on the way to Chico, but not a heck of a lot of weather. A prevailing west wind will produce some clouds in the mountains east of our route, but sunglasses are still needed until we arrive.
Could this job be done in one day? Maybe, but it wouldn’t be an entirely safe drive, so we’ll split it into a day and a half, covering 874 miles, at a pace of 67.4mph, meaning we will be done with our Sunday drive about 539 miles from St. Joseph.
DAY ONE (Sunday)
St. Joseph, Missouri
A dry cold front will be sweeping through the central Plains on Sunday morning, which is notable if you intend on driving a high profile vehicle down to Texas, as breezes will likely kick up in northern Kansas. It will still be breezy through Oklahoma, but just normal “Oklahoma breezy” and partly cloudy. Generally, look for pretty decent driving conditions. We’ll cross the Red River and finish the day in Corral City, between Denton and Fort Worth.
DAY TWO (Monday)
So that just leaves us with a 5 hour jaunt through the Lone Star State to Victoria. Low pressure in the High Plains will start spinning, but we shouldn’t notice it at the surface before we get to Victoria. Instead, we will see clouds become more prominent, and maybe a little bit lower as the day progresses, meaning a grayer end to the trip than we began.
It’s always a special day when we forecast for Victoria, because I get to remind everyone that the site is named this because I am from the version in Minnesota.
At 751PM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with fair skies and a brisk onshore wind, gusting over 30mph. An upper level ridge is settling into place over the region, which will help temper the wind and allow temperatures to climb through the region. While there won’t be a significant change to the weather on Monday, there will be a change nevertheless. Low pressure developing in the Colorado Rockies will emerge into the Plains on Monday afternoon, drawing air towards it, including moisture rich air off the Gulf coming through Victoria, making the day a bit cloudier and a bit stickier. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 66 Monday – Cloudier and more humid, High 82, Low 69
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 83, Low 65 Monday – Cloudy with gusty winds developing during the afternoon. High 82, Low 69
AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with times of clouds and sun High 83, Low 65 Monday – Increasingly windy; cloudy in the morning, then intervals of clouds and sunshine in the afternoon High 79, Low 68
NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 80, Low 65 Monday – Mostly cloudy High 80, Low 67
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly cloudy, High 82, Low 65 Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 79, Low 68
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 66 Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 68
CLI – Partly cloudy High 82, Low 64 Monday – Light rain showers High 82, Low 68
Clime is the only outlet calling for rain on Monday. I don’t think the moisture will be that rich. Take a look at the clear overhead radar in the area right now.
We verified a forecast for Racine yesterday, and I will just say that the verification in Victoria could not have been more different. For one thing, it was sunny throughout the forecast period. An expected advance from a tropical storm never really happened and it was honestly pretty great through the middle of last week, just a bit more humid on Wednesday. Clime kept their momentum (ah, there is the title source) by tying Accuweather for the forecast victory. Actuals: Tuesday – High 77, Low 44 Wednesday – High 83, Low 50
We’re taking the rare 2 1/2 day trip that doesn’t once leave the Central Time Zone. The route will cover 1281 miles at a pace of 64.6mph, which means the full days will cover about 517 miles, leaving a pretty easy day to conclude the trip. Here’s hoping the weather along the route is just as easy.
DAY ONE (Friday)
Racine, Wisconsin
Our first day of our drive will be a fine lesson in Midwest driving. We’ll slice through Illinois and southeastern Missouri, including Chicago, as well as a raft of farm country in between. Low pressure will be just recently departing Wisconsin, but will still be spinning over Michigan as we depart. There will certainly be some overcast through Chicago, but cool and crisp northwest winds will begin to force their way in as we pass through Champaign. The sun will be out through southern Illinois, though it may be breezy. We’ll pop into Missouri and reach the Bootheel town of Caruthersville to conclude the first day of our trek.
DAY TWO (Saturday) A late season ridge will be building back into the south central US over the weekend, with temperatures giving everyone a reprieve before the real winter air starts getting ideas. For our purposes, mostly sunny skies are going dominate the drive from Caruthersville through Arkansas and south to Lufkin, Texas, where we will spend our wild Saturday night.
DAY THREE (Sunday) Hurricane Norma is going to spiral back into the Mexican Coast over the weekend, and will have her work cut out for herself, attempting to navigate the Chihuahua Desert. There will be an onshore flow as a result of the churning environment in the northern US and enhanced by Norma’s trek across northern Mexico, so our half day through east Texas is likely to be cloudy, with a few spots of drizzle possible, especially after we’ve arrived in Victoria.
Victoria-Weather is forecasting for Victoria, Texas, and one might wonder if we have a home field advantage. I can assure you that we do not. Victoria-Weather is named after my home town of Victoria, Minnesota. Slightly different climates.
At 1051AM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies and a brisk northerly wind. This will surely keep temperatures cooler for the Gulf Coast this morning. the wind is based on a surface flow, however, and high pressure is blanketing the middle of the country. Flow aloft is fairly stagnant, and cold air will not be actively imported as winds start to subside this afternoon. A weak, quick hitting trough is developing in the lee of the Rockies, and will be moving northeast towards the Upper Midwest. The flow in the region will not alter much, thanks to sluggish jet flow in the region, but Victoria may see a little bit of a rise in humidity as the Gulf opens to the feature to the north. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 49 Wednesday – Warner, a bit stuffier, High 81, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 77, Low 45 Wednesday – Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 53
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 77, Low 41 Wednesday – Plenty of sunshine; breezy in the afternoon High 84, Low 49
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 46 Wednesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 53
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 73, low 48 Wednesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 55
WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 45 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 53
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 45 Wednesday – Sunny, High 83, Low 53
Those are some chilly morning lows for as far souh as Victoria is. The clouds over the Gulf certainly depict the vigorous off shore flow that is being observed. The rippling of the clouds parallel the coast, with nothing on land tells the story.
One day, I will stop trying to find cute names for these verifications, but today is not that day. Victoria’s Thursday was drab, with overcast keeping temperatures on the low end, while there was a little bit of light drizzle as low pressure in the northern US entrained flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Victoria-Weather had the best temperature forecast for the day, but we, along with the second best temperature forecaster (Forecast.io) missed on precipitation, and thus, V-W dropped into a 4-way tie with Accuweather, the Weather Service and WeatherNation. Congratulations to Accuweather, who finally had their first forecast win of the year, even if it was just a quarter share! Actuals: Wednesday – High 78, Low 51 Thursday – .01 inches of rain, High 78, Low 59
This seems to always be a little confusing. I’m putting together a forecast for Victoria, Texas, and I’m happy to do so, but this site is named after my home town, which is in Minnesota, and we forecast for a lot of places, everywhere in the country, and not just Victorias. OK? All right, let’s forecast.
At 1151AM, CT, Victoria was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with clear skies. A cold front lay off shore, extended from a line of severe thunderstorms in Mississippi and Alabama, and brisk north winds blew through the Gulf Coast. Upper level troughs were trailing meekly behind, bringing some bands of clouds to the Red River Valley, though Victoria looked good. A shallow ridge will bring about pleasant and quiet weather tomorrow. A trough racing out of the Rockies will be undercut by an increasingly laminar jet over the southern US. While the through will parent a decent pressure fall, it will be robbed of moisture by the flow to the south. There should be just enough moisture entrainment across the Gulf, however, to lead to low clouds and fog in Victoria on Thursday. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 52 Thursday – Overcast with fog at times, High 79, Low 60
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 79, Low 55 Thursday – Variable clouds with thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon High 80, Low 64
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 79, Low 54 Thursday – Cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm in the area High 77, Low 63
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 77, Low 53 Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 80, Low 63
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 56 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with a 30% chance of showers. High 78, Low 64
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 77, Low 53 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 80, Low 63
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 50 Thursday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 76, Low 60
I think these qualify as good days on the Gulf Coast. It’s not too chilly for locals, and it’s not too hot for guests. Check out he local satellite imagery, with a band of clouds that isn’t nearly as threatening as it appears.
