It seems that this winter, more than normal, we as a collective meteorological community are getting thrown off on our temperature forecasts. Clouds are being more pernicious, more influential than we’ve been properly anticipating. Such as it was in New Orleans, and it was in Holland before that. Clouds really held off a cool down last Monday in the Big Easy, but then, the temperatures plummeted on Tuesday as those clouds really prevented the afternoon warm up. It wasn’t the slow steady progression anyone expected, though I can confirm that after our forecast was over, things started to get back to normal in New Orleans. We’re still awaiting normal for the weather forecasters. It was a tight race, even if not a proud one, and the NWS got the wins. Actuals: Monday – .02 inches of rain High 65, Low 52 Tuesday – High 56, Low 51
We’re taking a trip along the route of the most recent blizzard. Of course, against convention, we will be taking a trip through the south and along the Gulf Coast. It will take only a day to cover the 615 miles between the two towns, and the good news is, no blizzard!
New Orleans, Louisiana
Low pressure is getting ready to pop in west Texas. There are already showers with a few embedded thunderstorms in the middle part of the Lone Star State, but things will really take off tomorrow. Fortunately for us, we are leaving in the morning, and will be clear into Georgia by the time the severe warnings start coming out in Louisiana, generally west of New Orleans anyways. Unlike earlier this month, the primary conditions in the southeast for our drive will be a steady southerly wind, bringing warm, moist air to the region. It will make the southeast feel like the southeast, and make this beach day feel closer to what it should. The 60s, instead of the 30s.
2025 is off to a hell of a start in the Big Easy, where it seems that nothing is easy anymore. 2025 also marks 20 years since Katrina changed the city forever, but more recently, we saw 10 inches of snow in parts of the city. We also know now that in 2 weeks the Eagles, Chiefs and fans of the NFL are going to be in town, praying that the weather isn’t among the headlines.
At 1053PM, CT, New Orleans was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 60 degrees. A light southeasterly flow was feeding into a developing boundary running roughly from Brookhaven, Mississippi to Deridder. Showers were running astride of the boundary, but there was a heavier thunderstorm north of Lake Charles, approaching Kinder. The boundary is just that, a boundary and isn’t truly tied to an organized area of low pressure, but a perturbation taking advantage of a little bit of dissonance in the jet aloft. The rainfall in central Louisiana will reach New Orleans shortly after sunrise, but won’t be terribly threatening, beyond some scattered showers through the morning, and overcast in the evening. A long wave, low amplitude ridge is building back into the western Gulf Coast. This will likely mean a bit of a meandering surface flow and some coastal fog south of New Orleans, but quiet weather in town. Tomorrow – Showers early, then becoming mostly cloudy. High 65, Low 57 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 48
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 63, Low 56 Tuesday – Considerable cloudiness. High 62, Low 49
AW: Tomorrow – A thick cloud cover with a couple of showers High 64, Low 55 Tuesday – Low clouds, High 62, Low 48
NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 64, Low 54 Tuesday -Mostly cloudy, 62, Low 48
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning then partly sunny in the afternoon, High 63, Low 56 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly sunny, High 61, Low 54
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 63 Low 55 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 61, Low 48
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 65, Low 56 Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 63, Low 48
Liquid precipitation is something most folks in Louisiana can understand. Here comes some now!
A product of having a state shaped like a boot, or, given the season, a stocking, is that if you are traveling from one part of the state to another, you are liable to end up spending a chunk of that drive in another state. This 4 hour drive that begins and ends in Louisiana will be spent mostly in Mississippi. It’s a 282 mile drive, likely fairly smooth sailing on Christmas Day, but plan for a pace of 66.9mph.
New Orleans, Louisiana
There may be some lingering showers as we get out of town to head over the (Mississippi) River and through the woods for grandmother’s house on Christmas Day. Momentum for the storm presently raging in east Texas will be gone by the time we drive in the morning, so heavy rain isn’t anticipated, and we may see clear skies for bits and pieces in southwestern Mississippi. It won’t last the whole time, though. We will reach Jackson with the looming specter of more, and potentially stronger rain showers redeveloping, and impeding us the rest of the way back to the Louisiana border. Rain will begin lightening up again as we cross back into our original state, but light rain will still be possible in Monroe.
New Orleans is a lot further south from Virginia Beach than I thought when this forecast first came up. It will be a tour of the southeast on this two day drive, which will bring us to New Orleans on Christmas Day. Our sleigh will be moving at 67.8mph for 1076 miles on this holiday road trip.
DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Virginia Beach, Virginia
A little bit of a perturbation in the Bight of Georgia is going to pull northward through the day today, and brush the Carolinas with a little bit of wet weather. We will skirt the periphery of this rain, which again, should be light, for our Christmas Eve journey, and it will erode both in the face of advancing colder air from the northeast, and simple distance from the sea. We will be in the clear as we turn west from Florence, South Carolina, and should then have quieter times through the remainder of the Palmetto State, and pull in for the night in Greensboro, Georgia, near Lake Oconee.
DAY TWO (Wednesday) Merry Christmas, travelers. We will get started from Lake Oconee and head into Alabama, relatively unscathed, save for Atlanta traffic. The Gulf will be opening up as high pressure moves into the east Coast, which will mean some afternoon rain and thunderstorms in the Mississippi Valley. The threat for rain will begin near Evergreen, Alabama, and continue to New Orleans. Stormy conditions are probably going to be more pervasive inland, so hopefully, the Mississippi Gulf Coast and New Orleans aren’t too rainy to spend Christmas afternoon.
The weather in the Big Easy was hot and humid towards the end of September. The humidity was a real issue, with temperatures failing to dip below the 78 degree mark in either the 24th or the 25th. At least it didn’t rain though! Victoria-Weather saw our personal hot September fritter away with a cooler forecast and a forecast for rain, but Accuweather nabbed the victory in New Orleans. Actuals: Saturday Sep 24th, High 92, Low 78 Sunday Sep 25th, High 91, Low 81
We’ve had quiet tropics, and the southern US is looking at more quiet weather this week, but even now, more than a week out and with nothing fully developed, the eyes of Louisiana are on the Venezuelan coast, where a tropical feature may develop and threaten the Gulf Coast. What before then? That’s where we come in.
At 856PM, CT, New Orleans was reporting fair skies with a temperature of 86 degrees. The satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico was a little bit murkier than the model analysis, which indicated the tail of a cold front over the northern Gulf, extending from Hurricane Fiona, bearing down on Nova Scotia. As Fiona presses into the Canadian Maritimes, the attendant boundary will diminish. Low pressure in the Great Lakes will produce a cool front through the Ozarks, advancing southward. Though not expected to be terribly robust, it will be enough to induce an onshore flow, and a return of some clouds and spotty rain showers around New Orleans by Sunday evening. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 75 Sunday – Mostly sunny, late showers and storms in the area, High 91, Low 74
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 93, Low 77 Sunday – Sunshine and clouds mixed. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 94, Low 77
AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy High 92, Low 76 Sunday – Humid with clouds and breaks of sun High 91, Low 75
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 76 Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 75
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 90, Low 76 Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 76
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 90, Low 76 Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 75
FIO: Tomorrow – Humid throughout the day. High 89, Low 76 Sunday – Humid and partly cloudy throughout the day. High 90, Low 75
Pretty consistent numbers across the board, thanks toa fairly quiet pattern, for the time being. The storm near Venezuela was named Ian while I was writing this post. For the moment, he looks like he will curl into the Gulf Coast of Florida, but the most recent GFS has a bit more northerly track than the consensus. It’s all still pretty variable for now. Here is the currently tranquil satellite imagery..
