In the forecast for Monroe, I described a fairly rainy scenario for Northern Louisiana on Christmas and Boxing Day, including a break in the action, at least for a short time. Well, that pause was used to prime the atmosphere for heavy thunderstorms, which dumped over an inch and a half of rain on the city. Fortunately for Monroe, while there were severe reports out of this system, they stopped before they reached the area, and when severe weather picked up again on the next day, it was all the way into Alabama. In the spirit of camaraderie around Christmas, we had a three way tie atop the leaderboard, with Victoria-Weather, The Weather Channel and WeatherBug coming together for a draw. Actuals: Christmas – .13″ of rain, High 63, Low 58 Boxing Day – 1.51″ of rain, High 66, Low 55
A product of having a state shaped like a boot, or, given the season, a stocking, is that if you are traveling from one part of the state to another, you are liable to end up spending a chunk of that drive in another state. This 4 hour drive that begins and ends in Louisiana will be spent mostly in Mississippi. It’s a 282 mile drive, likely fairly smooth sailing on Christmas Day, but plan for a pace of 66.9mph.
New Orleans, Louisiana
There may be some lingering showers as we get out of town to head over the (Mississippi) River and through the woods for grandmother’s house on Christmas Day. Momentum for the storm presently raging in east Texas will be gone by the time we drive in the morning, so heavy rain isn’t anticipated, and we may see clear skies for bits and pieces in southwestern Mississippi. It won’t last the whole time, though. We will reach Jackson with the looming specter of more, and potentially stronger rain showers redeveloping, and impeding us the rest of the way back to the Louisiana border. Rain will begin lightening up again as we cross back into our original state, but light rain will still be possible in Monroe.
Merry Christmas, one and all! The kids are in bed and I’m up waiting for St. Nick, so might as well forecast.
At 853PM, CT, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees, with overcast skies. A line of strong storms was sweeping through east Texas, with severe weather even ongoing around Bryan and College Station, but further to the north, a shield of regular old Christmas rain was approaching. This severe weather is burning bright, but will do so briefly. This area of wet weather is part of a short waved trough butting against a large ridge in the east. Organized strong storms won’t last into Christmas, however the region will still be disturbed. and on the back side of a ridge, keeping a return flow and the threat of showers in the forecast for Christmas Day. An even shorter wave on Boxing Day will draw moisture away from Monroe, leading to a clear afternoon on Thursday, ahead of the next batch of wet weather. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers, especially early. High 66, Low 55 Thursday – Isolated showers in the morning, then clearing, followed by a late chance for rain, High 68, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain showers High 64, Low 55 Thursday – Cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 69, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; wet roads and lower visibility may lead to travel disruptions High 66, Low 54 Thursday – Low clouds, then perhaps some sun and mild High 67, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely after 3pm. Mostly cloudy High 66, Low 56 Thursday – A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. High 70, Low 57
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning and a chance of showers with a thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 65, Low 58 Thursday – Cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, a chance of showers in the afternoon, High 68, Low 60
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 66, Low 54 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and Isolated thunderstorms, High 69, Low 58
CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 66, Low 55 Thursday – Thunderstorm, High 69, Low 57
Hey, Clime’s back! And the radar from the ArkLaTex is full of festive greens and reds.
In the transitional seasons, air masses are much more different from one another. Cold air is significantly colder than the air it replaces in the spring and fall, and not as much in the summer or winter. And because the sun angle is lower, having a few clouds can really affect the temperature more than they might in the summer. All this is to say is in the fall, you had better have your timing right. In Monroe, Michigan last month, the timing for a wave moving through as a little off. Clouds filtered in on Sunday the 19th early in the day and suppressed high temperatures. A system rising from the south central US was moving more quickly than expected, and brought not only rain but a warm front that meant temperatures ended up warmer than anticipated. All in all, it wasn’t a well spotted forecast for anyone, but Accuweather had the best temperature forecast and was one of the outlets that correctly had rain on Monday. Actuals: Sunday, November 20th, High 44, Low 34 Monday, November 21st, .32″ of rain, High 49, Low 39
Happy Saturday, everyone. Let’s see if the weather will keep everyone happy to begin the weekend.
At 415PM, ET, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 49 degrees with clear skies. Low pressure in eastern Canada has recently dragged a cool front through town, which will bring cooler but still pleasant weather through the weekend. A deep trough of the mid-latitude jet is going to traverse the desert Southwest and begin the development of a surface trough that will organize over the Red River Valley. By Monday evening, the system will move to the northeast, approaching the Lower Ohio Valley. The leading edge of rain will arrive after sunset on Monday night, to begin a pretty wet middle of the week. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 49, Low 29 Monday – Increasing clouds with rain late, High 45, Low 29
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies. High 51, Low 30 Monday – Cloudy. Late Rain, High 45, Low 32
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 50, Low 33 Monday – Sun and areas of high clouds in the morning, then mostly cloudy in the afternoon (late rain) High 46, Low 35
NWS: Sunny, High 49, Low 29 Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46. Low 30
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 31 Monday – Cloudy (Late rain) High 45, Low 29
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 29 Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46, Low 30
CLI: Tomorrow – sunny, High 48, Low 32 Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 46, Low 34
Some difference of opinion on whether there will actually be rain on Monday evening. Looks pretty likely to me. Not now, though. Pretty quiet now.
A day after a tornado struck Monroe, Louisiana, and a few days before another round of severe weather swept through northern Louisiana, there was a respite. Temperatures were cool for this part of the world, especially in the spring, with highs never pulling out of the mid-70s and lows even dipping below 40 on Thursday morning. Forecasts were generally pretty good, but this was a fairly simple forecast. A benign forecast for benign weather when that is just what everyone needed. The Weather Channel and Accuweather had the top marks. Actuals: Wednesday, High 64, Low 40 Thursday – High 74, Low 39
We have a short, less than 6 hour drive today, covering 368 miles at a pace of about 63 miles. Even though this is a narrow stretch of the road, it is also exactly the most ravaged part of the south from the Easter tornado outbreaks. We will pass through Collins, which was just north of the 2 mile wide, long track twister that struck Bassfield, and clipped by another mile wide twister on the north side of town. It was a bruising day, that the Jackson WFO is still assessing.
Pensacola, Florida
The southeast currently finds itself in a pretty good respite, as the severe weather from Sunday is now a few days behind us, and dry weather has invaded. It’s warm and comfortably dry, though on Friday during the drive, expect the Lower Mississippi Valley to get increasingly humid as a weak cold front sinks southward and draws Gulf moisture north. This will mean increasing cloud cover as well, ahead of some rain that might enter the picture over the weekend in Monroe.
Monroe was one of the first places impacted by the Easter Sunday tornado outbreak in the southern US. Monroe saw damage at the airport, and hundreds of homes and buildings in the area. Fortunately, it looks like we will be getting some more tolerable weather through the middle of the week. Let’s see if I can prove that.
At 1253PM, CT, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 59 degrees with a north wind and mostly sunny skies. There were a few stray clouds to the west, from El Dorado, Arkansas to Ruston and Shreveport, but Monroe was in a sunny streak of the atmosphere. The north wind trailed a still active cold front that stretched from north Florida to the Gulf of Mexico, while the band of clouds atop northern Louisiana was associated with a much weaker trough wrapping into the same area of low pressure as the front. That low was heading towards Ellesmere Island, which should give an indication of how strong it’s influence is. The parent jet trough is winterlike in it’s strength. The trough is broad and encompassing, but its momentum is carrying it eastward at a pace that doesn’t reflect how weak the flow is behind it, especially given how broad the trough is. With cold air pressing eastward, there doesn’t seem to be much poleward motion, and Monroe looks to be ensconced in cool dry air for the middle of the week. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 65, Low 37 Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 40
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies, High 65, Low 40 Thursday – Mainly sunny, High 73, Low 41
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 38 Thursday – Mostly sunny and pleasant, High 72, Low 39
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy frost before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, High 66, Low 37 Thursday – Sunny, High 73, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow – Areas of frost through mid-morning. Mostly sunny. High 63, low 40 Thursday – Sunny, High 70, Low 43
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with areas of frost, High 66, Low 37 Thursday – Sunny, High 73, Low 40
FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 65, Low 37 Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 72, Low 39
That should be very comfortable. Even if you are out of power in Monroe, first off, thank you for using your mobile device to check Victoria-Weather, and second, I am happy to hear that you will not have to contend with heat without air conditioning. See the banding of clouds over the southeast, below.
Just to provide some context for just how big these United States are, we will be staying entirely west of the Mississippi and remain in states that border either the Gulf of Mexico or the nation of Mexico, and we will still be traveling 1,842 miles and taking 3 long days to get where we are going. We’ll even take interstates, so we’ll cover 68mph, and 546 miles per those first two days, and we’ll STILL have a lengthy 11 hour day to finish with.
Monroe, Louisiana
DAY ONE (Wednesday) There is a stout ridge of high pressure in the southeastern United States, and most of the precipitation for the next couple of days will be ridge riding on the north side of this dome, meaning very hot, dry and mostly sunny weather in the southeast, including in Louisiana and east Texas. The western edge of this dome will be in west Texas, but we will stop in Childress, before we run into the associated showers and thunderstorms. Hopefully, the AC works in the hotel.
DAY TWO (Thursday) As is the nature of shower activity on the backside of high pressure, it won’t be moving anywhere, but it’s coverage will probably expand through the day on Thursday. Expect some showers and storms through Amarillo, and as we cross into New Mexico, rain will lighten, but persist. In fact we may see rain persist right up to Tijeras, butting up against the foothills of the mountains surrounding Albuquerque. We’ll be in the clear, however, by the time we reach New Mexico’s biggest town, and will drive in sun to Manuelito, just before the Arizona line.
DAY THREE (Friday) High elevation rain showers may encroach the hills east of Manuelito, but that will be the only threat for this long finishing day of our trek. Strong low pressure is going to develop in the Rockies, kicking up a Santa Ana wind that may necessitate a firm grasp of the steering wheel. particularly as the day reaches it’s final stages, and we turn north into the San Joaquin Valley. Fresno will be mild and could be fairly breezy.
The forecast in Monroe seemed promising. There was a little bit of rain in the early part of Wednesday, but then the heat was supposed to break. It certainly did not. Instead, high temperatures remained in the mid 90s, which was just as hot as it was before a weak cold front slid through. The National Weather Service and Weathernation weren’t optimistic about a cool down, and ended up claiming a forecast victory. Actuals: Wednesday – Thunderstorms reported, not measured, High 95, Low 72 Thursday – High 95, Low 70
