from Victoria-Weather
Our forecast in Allentown oversaw clearing skies and a warmup, with high temperatures from Sunday the 4th climbing 7 degrees to Monday’s high. This coincided with more sunshine, and evacuation of the light showers they had in town. There was one consistency, however, in that The Weather Channel continued their hold on forecasting supremacy that guided them through September.
Actuals: Sunday October 4th, .01 inches of rain, High 61, Low 54
Monday, October 5th, High 68, Low 50
Grade: A
Before Isaias grabbed headlines in Florida, we were eying Polo in the eastern Pacific. The storm was projected to slide into the Southwest and pump moisture into the southern Plains. A couple of outlets thought the threat was great enough to include rain throughout the forecast for Sherman. Instead, one of the outlets, The Weather Channel, who kept the forecast dry on the 29th, put together a nearly perfect forecast and won the last forecast of September.
Actuals: September 28th, .01″ of rain, High 90, Low 70
September 29th, High 93, Low 73
Grade: A
Late September in Salinas is apparently perfect. Our forecast featured sunshine, highs in the low 70s and crisp mornings in the upper 50s. Forecasts along the coast are always a bit topsy turvy, so even with good weather, the forecasts weren’t extraordinary. The Weather Channel did earn victory.
Actuals: September 24th, High 73, Low 58
September 25th, High 73, Low 54
Grade: B
The summer equinox is in late September, which is when the calendar says the season has turned to autumn. Nobody told the Memphis atmosphere, however, and temperatures were in the triple digits on the 20th. It wasn’t much better on the 21st, with temperatures still in the mid 90s. For most, this was the biggest forecast flaw, as the cool down was not widely qccounted for. Accuweather had the top forecast, but scores were not great.
Actuals: September 20th, High 100, Low 73
September 21st, High 94, Low 70
Grade: C
I am not one for cold weather. I do like forecasting snow, but I don’t care for living in it. Midmonth in Williamsport would have been ideal for me, as it wasn’t unbearably hot, and still trending warmer. The trend was handled pretty well by everyone, but Clime handled it even better than the rest, securing the daily victory.
Actuals: September 15th, High 72, Low 47
September 16th, High 80, Low 57
Grade: A
Our weekend forecast for Morristown earlier in the month, there was the threat for some isolated shower activity. Victoria-Weather was alone in keeping it out of the forecast on Sunday, but everyone called for something on Saturday. Morristown instead stayed dry, which also meant that it stayed warm. High temperatures were above forecast totals on each day of the weekend, which meant the top forecast went to the warmest forecast. That was the Weather Channel.
Actuals: Saturday, September 12th, High 84, Low 70
Sunday, September 13th, High 91, Low 66
Grade: C
I’m not going to dance around things: Victoria-Weather smoked the competition in our forecast for Syracuse. Not even close. We picked up on something that nobody else seemed to pick up on: Flow behind a cold front was going to come right off the Great Lakes , which kept things nice and cool in Syracuse. Right off the Great Lakes. One them in particular.
Actuals: August 19th .02″ of rain High 82, Low 60
August 20th .01″ of rain, High 71, Low 57
Grade: C
It was very warm in Jonesboro when we put together the local forecast. Temperatures were at or near the century mark both on the 12th and 13th, our forecast verification dates. Not only that, but 6/7 forecasters were able to keep their forecast to within 5 degrees of total error on the highs and lows for both days. The weather, and the forecasters were hot. Accuweather and Clime, even with these solid numbers, were able to separate themselves, and earned victory in northeast Arkansas.
Actuals: August 12th, High 99, Low 77
August 13th, High 100, Low 78
Grade: A
Norwich is several miles inland, however the official NWS reporting station for the site of our forecast at the beginning of the month is at the Naval base at Groton, which is definitely on the coast. Through some patterns, this doesn’t have a substantial impact. On August 5th and 6th, it was so dramatic it made me take into consideration the typically less reliable observation posts that don’t offer the official NWS read outs. I’m not sure they are fully correct, but I am sure they are closer to a fair representation for Norwich than Groton’s readings, which were a good 10-15 degrees cooler than all of the forecasts. So with that preamble, it stayed sunny, stayed dry and got pretty toasty in Norwich, and The Weather Channel was closest to the readings that I elected to reference.
Actuals (?): August 5th – High 89, Low 57
August 6th – High 92, Low 75
Grade: D
I am willing to guess that the temperatures we saw in Fresno are going to end up being the warmest we see all year. On the 2nd and 3rd of the month, temperatures climbed to 106, which, as you may know, is quite warm. It was the rare forecast in which the consensus was actually the best forecast, as the various outlets darted around the verified numbers. Otherwise, it was a three way tie between the National Weather Service, WeatherNation and Clime.
Actuals: August 2nd, High 106, Low 70
August 3rd, High 106, Low 72
Grade: A