Our forecast in Dalton earlier this month was within a string of potentially stormy days for the southeast. Just because of how the topography works, and the inflow of moisture isn’t as robust further north, away from the Gulf. But the moisture did reach to Dalton, importantly, because not everyone expected it to, not both the 4th and the 5th, and in a couple of cases, not on either day. Rain fall was very light, but a mismanaged precipitation forecast ended up securing the victory for the Weather Service. Actuals: June 4th, .01″ of rain, High 85, Low 69 June 5th, High .02″ of rain, High 84, Low 65
There is a lot to be said about the tremendous change in geography from west to east in Colorado, but not enough is noted about the changes you see along the front range from north to south. Denver is a very different town from Pueblo, from the setting to the people. The weather is usually fairly dissimilar as well, and I’m sure it will be again this week.
At 1053PM, MT, Pueblo was reporting a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. While the pattern at the highest levels of the atmosphere was fairly unremarkable, the dry line is becoming active, and there was a bit of a curl to the flow over west Texas. This is helping focus todays and future storms around the dry line. There will be a westerly flow throughout the period over Colorado, which will result in some spotty showers over the Rockies, but the combination of moisture being restricted from the Gulf and the downsloping winds will render precipitation in Pueblo improbably, and sun and warm temperatures the more likely scenario for the next couple of days. Tomorrow – Sunny and warm, High 92, Low 57 Thursday – Sunny and hot, High 91, Low 56
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 91, Low 58 Thursday – Mostly sunny early. Scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 90, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun High 92, Low 55 Thursday – Sun followed by some clouds and very warm, turning breezy in the afternoon with a thunderstorm around High 94, Low 56
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 91, Low 57 Thursday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 57
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. High 87, Low 62 Thursday – Partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 61
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 91, Low 58 Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms High 92, Low 57
CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, high 91, Low 56 Thursday – Light rain showers, High 93, Low 58
Certainly some discrepancy in the rain forecasts. I’m standing by myself with this one, but I feel good. Maybe a few showers down by Trinidad, but I think Pueblo stays dry. Clouds are overshooting the Rockies this evening
Dalton is an interesting place for a forecast visit. It is so close to the commercial weather Mecca that is Atlanta, and yet so far. Dalton is in the higher terrain of northwest Georgia, which can lead to some interesting weather perturbations that are dissimilar even to the spots just down the road.
At 1053AM, ET, Dalton was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with overcast skies. A sharp upper level ridge was tilted across New England, which was allowing for some clean radars for the moment, however the pattern aloft is quite active, including a sharp trough over the Northern Plains, and of more local concern, a weak lower level short wave over the eastern Gulf. The strength of the upper trough and the moisture attendant with the weak Gulf low will interact to bring clouds and moisture north into the Peach State. The Gulf trough is going to weaken as it drifts ashore, and while clouds are expected in Dalton both Wednesday and Thursday, the precipitation associated with those clouds will be light. Aloft, the northern jet is going to phase down and reconstitute north of the Canadian border, robbing the area of conflicting air masses, which will ultimately make the next two days fairly dull and dreary. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with spots of drizzle, High 83, low 66 Thursday – Light rain possible early, then mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 64
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 86, Low 66 Thursday – Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 67
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun High 84, Low 65 Thursday – Humid with plenty of sun High 85, Low 67
NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4pm. Mostly sunny High 85, Low 66 Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 86, Low 66
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83, Low 67 Thursday – Mostly sunny. A slight chance of showers in the morning then a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 86, Low 68
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 87, Low 66 Thursday – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and isolated storms, High 86, low 66
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 85 Low 64 Thursday – Sunny, High 84, Low 65
The satellite is pretty clean right now, and it won’t be real ugly later, but it will certainly be different.
In NFL circles, Green Bay is known as the “Frozen Tundra”. Something tells me that, rolling into June, that name isn’t as apt.
At 456PM, CT, Green Bay was in reporting rain. There were spotty showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, including a few that have been severe with large hail. A broad area of low pressure centered over Eastern Canada is trailing a few different frontal and post frontal bands. There is severe weather s a result of this system on the east coast, and the weather in Eastern Wisconsin is the most significant post frontal activity. The disorganized upper level pattern surrounding the trough is going to coalesce as a jet trough overnight into tomorrow morning. This will make the overall pattern more transient. Lingering shower activity will wrap up this evening, and tomorrow will be dry as a weak ridge enters the picture. The next feature will be more appropriately centered for this time of year, and will emerge from the Canadian Prairies. By Sunday afternoon, America’s Dairyland will be within the warm sector of this feature, with some isolated showers and storms popping up late in the day over central Wisconsin, but the Lake cooled air should keep them away from Green Bay. Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 71, Low 46 Sunday – Mostly sunny, warmer with isolated clouds late, High 76, Low 43
TWC: Tomorrow -Sunny skies. High 73, Low 47 Sunday – Sunny. High 77, Low 44
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and nice; wildfire smoke will cause the sky to be hazy High 73, Low 47 Sunday – Hazy sunshine and warm; smoke from Canadian wildfires will obscure the sky High 79, Low 44
NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of smoke after 4pm. Sunny, High 69, Low 45 Sunday – Sunny, High 75, Low 43
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. Areas of smoke in the afternoon High 70, Low 48 Sunday – Sunny. High 74, Low 46
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 69, Low 45 Sunday – Sunny, High 75, Low 43
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 47 Sunday – Sunny, High 79. Low 42
For more on that smoke, take a look at the WBAY weather forecast. For more on the storms this afternoon, check out the radar loop below. For more on the forecast from Clime tomorrow, I can’t help you.
After our forecast in south Texas, we are going to south Jersey, which are approximately the same place, culturally and climatologically, I think.
At 1053PM, ET, Vineland was reporting a temperature of 50 degrees with clear skies. Upper level flow was split, with an elongated, main flow running just north of the Canadian border, and an isolated, cut off trough base along the Gulf Coast. Both were generating low pressure, with high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic in between. The southern trough, being isolated, will have a tougher time sustaining itself, though that is the feature moving towards New Jersey. High pressure will hold it at bay until late in the day on Monday, but the blob of increasingly disorganized moisture in the southeast will introduce a little bit of light shower activity after sunset. Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 48 Monday – Increasing clouds, a chance of showers late, High 76, Low 51
TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83. Low 52 Monday – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. High 80, Low 55
AW: Tomorrow = Warmer with sunshine and a few clouds; dry for outdoor plans on Mother’s Day High 81, Low 50 Monday – Pleasant; brilliant sunshine in the morning followed by sun and areas of high clouds High 74, Low 53
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 79, Low 51 Monday – Partly sunny. High 74, Low 58
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 80, Low 52 Monday – Partly cloudy with showers, High 77, Low 53
CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 78, Low 52 Monday – Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 52
Two camps, clearly, on the timing of clouds and precipitation, and it is really going to affect the Monday high temperatures. Below is a look at the satellite, with clouds southwest of Vineland that will lazily move in. Happy Mother’s Day!
Way down south in Texas for our forecast, right along the Mexican border.
At 1056PM, Central Time, Laredo was reporting a temperature of 76 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A broad cut off trough over the northern Gulf Coast is rotating flow throughout the area. The offshore, west Texas breezes were keeping places like Laredo fairly tolerable and pretty dry. The low and the trough fostering it are going to be slow to move out, but the good news for Laredo is that they are in a dry regime, on the back end of the low with dry northerly flow persisting in south Texas. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 86, Low 64 Sunday – A bit more sun, High 90, Low 62
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds. High 88, Low 65 Sunday – Mainly sunny. Hight 94, Low 62
AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with plenty of sun High 86, Low 64 Sunday – Plenty of sun High 90, Low 63
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 87, Low 66 Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 64
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. High 85, Low 70 Sunday – Sunny. high 89, Low 67
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 66 Sunday – Sunny, High 91, Low 64
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers High 84, Low 65 Sunday – Sunny High 89, Low 63
The rain that Clime has might be one of those hallucinating AI things you hear about. It’s pretty clear on satellite right now.
Guess who’s back! After a long Easter hiatus, I’m back to bring some weather updates, and we will start with a look in the deep south.
At 753AM, ET, Albany was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 68 degrees. Lingering shower activity over the last couple of days has led to clouds and fog, particularly north and east of Albany. It wasn’t likely to advect out of the region, instead holding on for the heating of the day to scour moisture out. This will also destabilize the region, and more showers and storms are possible throughout north Georgia again tomorrow. The moisture in the area is a result both of the beginning of the summer season, but also a remnant trough, orphaned by a weak area of low pressure that transitioned out of the Canadian Maritimes in the last couple of days. A weak ripple in the Upper Midwest will provide enough of a draw over the next day or so to pull instability out of the south. It will get warmer and more humid in Albany, but the threat of rain will lessen tomorrow. Because the wave is shortwaved, it will be inclined to move, and will do so into a more cyclogenic region. A weak cold front will arrive in south Georgia by Saturday evening, brining about the threat for a few isolated thunderstorms. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with isolated drizzle overnight, High 88, Low 67 Saturday Isolated showers early and late, otherwise hot and humid, High 90, low 68
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and clouds mixed. High 88, Low 65 Saturday – Sunshine along with some cloudy intervals High 90, Low 65
AW: Tomorrow – Becoming cloudy High 88, Low 64 Saturday – Mostly sunny and warm High 89, Low 62
NWS: Tomorrow – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, High 89, Low 64 Saturday – Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, High 90, Low 65
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 85, Low 65 Saturday – Mostly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 87, Low 67
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 88, Low 64 Saturday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 89, Low 65
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 88, Low 63 Saturday – Sunny, High 88, Low 63
I suspect models are picking up on the moisture which will lead to fog across south Georgia for the next two overnights, however I’ve also seen the radar there, with smatterings of light rain everywhere. I’m too skittish to take it out. Look how cloudy it was this morning!
We watched with Memphis as they anticipated severe weather last week, and we will begin this week on the opposite side of the state. What to expect in Johnson City?
At 1138AM, ET, the Tri-Cities were reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with overcast skies and lingering fog. The elongated band of at times heavy and flooding rain that has brought havoc to the mid-South and Ohio Valley has now reached the Appalachians, and is starting to depart East Tennessee. The day will be rainy in Virginia, and a little bit of vorticity will come to the southern part of the line of showers, slowing the line down a bit and bringing some moisture back into the Tri Cities. Rain isn’t expected for the rest of the day, however overcast and fog will struggle to retreat. A post frontal trough at the back side of the broader area of low pressure will mean more fog and clouds tomorrow morning, but temperatures that aren’t as cool as they could be, given the post frontal air mass. An area of high pressure will develop across the region through the afternoon tomorrow, and will hold intact through Wednesday. It will be warmer, thanks to the sun shining a bit more, but a warm air mass will be harder to come by. Tomorrow – Morning fog and cloudy, clearing late, High 49, Low 35 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 62, Low 30
TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 51, Low 36 Wednesday – Plentiful sunshine. High 65, Low 28
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cold High 51, Low 38 Wednesday – Warmer with plenty of sunshine High 63, Low 30
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 34 Wednesday – Widespread frost before 7am. Otherwise, sunny, High 64, low 26
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 49, Low 39 Wednesday – Sunny. High 63, low 32
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 36 Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 29
CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 50, Low 35 Wednesday – Sunny, High 62, low 26
There is some pretty consistent forecast temperatures. The sure sign of a sunny forecast in the spring time. It sure isn’t sunny right now.
It’s Friday, at least. Will it be a good weekend at the Pennsylvania Capitol?
At 556PM ET, Harrisburg was reporting a temperature of 65 degrees with overcast skies. A sharp upper level trough in the Plains was producing another severe outbreak in the Mid South, with a truncated rain shield following a warm front to western Pennsylvania. More entrenched is a ridge on the East Coast, pushing the mid and upper 60s to near the New York border. The upper level pattern will be slow to move, but at the surface, the instability will attempt to continue northeastward. Redevelopment will occur in the southern Plains, and showers moving to central Pennsylvania will lose potency, and severe weather is not anticipated. The entire system will inch further east through Sunday. Tapping into the Gulfstream moisture will make for a bit more rain than Saturday will provide. Rain may not clear out on Sunday, slowing the cool down. Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 58, Low 49 Sunday – Some heavier showers, lighter late, High 56, Low 47
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a few showers. High 60, Low 52 Sunday – Overcast with rain showers at times. Thunder possible. High 55, Low 46
AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a little rain High 62, Low 53 Sunday – Cloudy with occasional rain and a thunderstorm High 60, Low 45
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, High 63, Low 54 Sunday – Rain High 60, Low 44
WB: Tomorrow – Rain likely. High 59, Low 54 Sunday – Rain. High 55, Low 44
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with light rain likely, High 62, Low 53 Sunday – Cloudy with light rain, High 58, Low 45
CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 61, Low 51 Sunday – Light Rain Showers, High 60, Low 45
There isn’t going to be a heavy cold pool to clear the murk out of Harrisburg, despite how strong the jet streak overhead is. That jet trough just won’t get moving through town this weekend, though it does lead to a pretty dreary weekend. Look how close the rain is to town, and it isn’t even moving in until tomorrow!
Elmira is just north of the Pennsylvania border, and usually just to the south of the Lake effect bands of snow. Hopefully in April, we are done with Lake effect!
At 653PM ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 41 degrees with clear skies. There was a brisk north wind, flowing toward a boundary connecting a feature in the Gulf Stream to a large feature in the Plains. The evidence of the boundary, however was a wisp of clouds down around Norfolk, and a temperature gradient that sharpened near the Mason-Dixon Line. The boundary will function as a warm front by tomorrow, lifting into the Mid-Atlantic and bringing some significant rain through the area tomorrow evening. Elmira will be within the warm sector by Thursday morning, but overcast and scattered showers will damper some of the enjoyment. Action along the front will be found most prominently much further downstream along the cold front, which will move sluggishly through Elmira in the evening, and won’t result in a precipitous drop off in temperature in the evening. Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with rain, heavy at times in the evening, High 47, Low 23 Thursday – Cloudy, warmer with some showers, High 71, Low 42
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional showers for the afternoon. High 49, Low 27 Thursday – Rain showers early with overcast skies later in the day. High 73, Low 43
AW: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness, becoming breezy in the afternoon with a couple of showers late High 48, Low 24 Thursday – Cloudy, breezy and warmer with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm, mainly early in the day High 77, Low 44
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy High 52, Low 26 Thursday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy High 75, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely in the afternoon. High 52, Low 30 Thursday – Showers likely. High 72, Low 42
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a light wintry mix possible, High 51, Low 27 Thursday – Mostly cloudy with light showers and isolated storms, High 73, Low 46
CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 49, Low 24 Thursday – Rain Showers, High 76, Low 44
Man, distractions and life got in the way, and this one took a while to finish up. But here is the initial satellite showing the band of clouds around Hampton Roads.
