Gulfport, Mississippi

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

This is it, friends, the first individual forecast of the year. Off to the Gulf Coast, and hopefully some warm temperatures.

At 1253PM, CT, Gulfport was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with clear skies. This will not last, however. Scattered showers are moving through Louisiana, the vanguard of a system developing off the Texas coast near Corpus Christi. A sharp upper level trough is going to aid the development of this feature, which will temporarily slow it down, but will ultimately give the storm a bit of a jolt. Fortunately, Gulfport looks to be far enough south to evade the snow and ice this storm will bring, but still chilly enough to avoid severe weather.
Warm air will lift north at the leading edge of the system, and the onshore flow will almost certainly led to a stray shower overnight in Gulfport. The heavy rain associated with the core of the area of low pressure will arrive in Gulfport around mid-morning, and may feature a thunderstorm or two. By the time it passes southern Mississippi, the feature will have some momentum, and will make a hard charge through th region, exiting later in the evening on Friday, and leading to an even cooler Saturday. Fortunately, with a little bit of sunshine, Gulfport should bounce back to something closer to comfortable.
Tomorrow – Rain, heavy at times with some thunder in the morning. Wrapping up in the evening, getting chilly late, High 60, Low 40
Saturday – Increasing sun, cooler, High 51, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with a steady rain in the morning. Showers continuing in the afternoon. Potential for heavy rainfall.  High 57, low 41
Saturday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 51, low 35

AW: Tomorrow – Turning colder in the morning; windy with rain High 58, Low 43
Saturday – Partial sunshine, High 52, Low 36

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers High 62, low 40
Saturday – Partly sunny High 48, Low 35

WB: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly in the morning. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the morning. High 55, Low 38
Saturday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny, High 50, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with showers, High 61, Low 39
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 46, low 36

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain Showers, High 61, Low 44
Saturday – Sunny, High 51, Low 36

Believe it or not, not all of our forecasters put Tomorrow’s low at midnight headed into Friday. Temperatures should plateau there for a bit, and perhaps not necessarily any cooler than they will be tomorrow morning, ahead of the surge of warmer air before the rain. Did someone say rain? Here is some rain arriving in Louisiana.

Logan, Utah

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

It’s the grand finale of 2024, which means our forecast will provide a first look at 2025. What do we have in store for northern Utah?

At 951AM, MT, Logan was reporting overcast skies with a temperature of 25 degrees. Snow was falling in the higher terrain, and near the northern part of the Great Salt Lake. The persistent, wind driven snow has lead to an increased threat for avalanches in the higher, steeper terrain, and could make for treacherous travel, particularly east of Logan. A sharp jet trough will shift out of Utah today and help tamp down some of the winds, but this disturbance is being chased out by a strong jet, albeit laminar. This will lead to more moisture, if less gusty wind.
The threat for snow in the northernmost reaches of the Beehive State will return around midday on New Years Day. Not much is expected at the lower terrain of Logan, but more accumulation will be coming for the peaks of the Wasatch. The strong jet will ultimately be translating perpendicular to the flow within the jet, which means an upper ridge is coming for Thursday evening, finally ending the snow for the moment.
Tomorrow – Starting calm, with snow possible in the afternoon, High 31, Low 14
Thursday – Snow early, clearing late, High 37, Low 25

TWC: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with snow showers. High 33, Low 18
Thursday – Cloudy with snow showers mainly during the morning. High 39, Low 29

AW: Tomorrow – Considerable cloudiness with a bit of snow in the afternoon with little or no accumulation High 32, Low 19
Thursday – Times of clouds and sun with a rain or snow shower in spots High 39, Low 27

NWS: Tomorrow – Snow likely, mainly after 8am. Cloudy, High 32, Low 15
Thursday – A chance of snow before 2pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, High 38, Low 23

WB: Tomorrow – A chance of snow in the in the morning then snow in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy, High 24, Low 15
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with snow likely, High 32, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light snow, High 32, Low 16
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with chance of a light wintry mix, High 37, Low 25

CLI: Tomorrow – Heavy snow showers. High 33, Low 13
Thursday – Light sleet High 39, Low 25

The last forecast of the year calls for light sleet?! I’ll be. There is a splash of precipitation on radar as of this morning.

Monroe, Louisiana

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Merry Christmas, one and all! The kids are in bed and I’m up waiting for St. Nick, so might as well forecast.

At 853PM, CT, Monroe was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees, with overcast skies. A line of strong storms was sweeping through east Texas, with severe weather even ongoing around Bryan and College Station, but further to the north, a shield of regular old Christmas rain was approaching.
This severe weather is burning bright, but will do so briefly. This area of wet weather is part of a short waved trough butting against a large ridge in the east. Organized strong storms won’t last into Christmas, however the region will still be disturbed. and on the back side of a ridge, keeping a return flow and the threat of showers in the forecast for Christmas Day. An even shorter wave on Boxing Day will draw moisture away from Monroe, leading to a clear afternoon on Thursday, ahead of the next batch of wet weather.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, with scattered showers, especially early. High 66, Low 55
Thursday – Isolated showers in the morning, then clearing, followed by a late chance for rain, High 68, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with occasional rain showers High 64, Low 55
Thursday – Cloudy in the morning with scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day. High 69, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; wet roads and lower visibility may lead to travel disruptions High 66, Low 54
Thursday – Low clouds, then perhaps some sun and mild High 67, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm, then showers likely after 3pm. Mostly cloudy High 66, Low 56
Thursday – A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. High 70, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers in the morning and a chance of showers with a thunderstorm in the afternoon. High 65, Low 58
Thursday – Cloudy. A slight chance of showers in the morning, a chance of showers in the afternoon, High 68, Low 60

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with light showers and isolated thunderstorms, High 66, Low 54
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and Isolated thunderstorms, High 69, Low 58

CLI: Tomorrow – Rain showers, High 66, Low 55
Thursday – Thunderstorm, High 69, Low 57

Hey, Clime’s back! And the radar from the ArkLaTex is full of festive greens and reds.

Jacksonville, North Carolina

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Not quite as renowned as the two Portlands, there are also two Jacksonvilles, and both of them are on an intercoastal water way in the southeast, so there is a bit more in common with these co-named towns.

At 156PM, ET, Jacksonville was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with mostly sunny skies. A boundary had shifted off shore in relation to low pressure in the central Appalachians, and clouds and rain were recently observed as nearby as Cherry Point. North Carolina finds itself within the warm sector of this feature, and looks to enjoy a warm afternoon.
The parent low to the feature in the Appalachians is a deeply occluded cyclone in Ontario. The jet structure is becoming more laminar, making the occlusion even more stark, and weakening the cold front. The boundary will track through Jacksonville fairly uneventfully tomorrow afternoon. This unaltered environment will be in place as another low organized and moves swiftly, starting in southern Missouri and transporting through the Carolinas by Wednesday evening. Expect a surge in warmth and moisture in the afternoon, followed by an increasing threat of showers, with a few embedded thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 72, Low 43
Wednesday – Increasingly cloudy, some rain late, High 72, low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Areas of fog (and rain) early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon High 73, Low 53
Wednesday – Areas of fog early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon high 72, low 54

AW: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning; otherwise, very warm with clouds and sunshine High 74, Low 51
Wednesday – Areas of morning fog; otherwise, partly sunny and warm with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 72, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 10am. Otherwise, cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 73, Low 52
Wednesday – A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly sunny, High 69, Low 53
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. A 40% chance of showers, with thunderstorms in the evening, High 69, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with showers, High 72, Low 53
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 70, Low 54

CLI: I think Clime is done? Their forecasts just keep bringing out 404’s

Here is the radar for the Carolinas with some showers over the Outer Banks.

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

Ryan Henning Leave a comment

Welcome to mid-December. A cold front is pressing towards the eastern Seaboard this evening, so it appears as this forecast will have the FEEL of a mid-December forecast. As it should.

At 1253AM, ET, Lancaster was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with overcast skies. Rain was not presently being reported in the area, but it was certainly all around. The next batch of precipitation will be moving in from the southwest, were showers are being reported in York. A sharp trough in the eastern third of the country is the culprit behind a still evolving area of surface low pressure centered in the western Carolinas. It was pumping moisture northward, and will continue to until the low itself moves through midday tomorrow. After this point, cold air will start rushing in in earnest.
The coldest air and the precipitation don’t quite overlap, so snow in southeastern Pennsylvania, while not impossible, is unlikely. The brisk upper level flow will lead to Lake effect snow in the eastern Great Lakes and still gloomy conditions in Lancaster for Thursday.
Tomorrow – Rain through the morning, ending with a wintry mix in the afternoon, High 59, Low 33
Thursday – Cloudy, windy and colder, High 38, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Periods of rain High 62, Low 35
Thursday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 37, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Mild with heavy rain and a t-storm; windy this afternoon; worsening travel conditions throughout the day; flooding, damaging winds and power outages possible High 61, Low 36
Thursday – Windy and much colder with partial sunshine High 37, Low 27

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain. High 61, Low 34
Thursday – Sunny, High 35, Low 25

WB: Tomorrow – Rain, Unseasonably warm, High 57, Low 35
Thursday – Sunny, Much cooler, High 35, Low 27

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Rain, High 61, Low 34
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 34, Low 25

CLI: Uh oh

Two forecasts in a row where Clime is not working. Uh oh indeed.

It’s a rainy one out east! All forecasts, every day, are non standard.

Corvallis, Oregon

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Thanksgiving is behind us, and now Christmas awaits, and in between a busy few weeks. Travel can get sticky in the Northeast around the holidays, and everyone knows it, but what about the Northwest?

At 615PM, PT, Corvallis was reporting low clouds and fog, as well as a temperature of 32 degrees. Temperatures are undoubtedly suppressed by the low clouds, as near the coast it was 10 degrees warmer. The low blanket was seen inland, as flow was wrapping westward from an upper level ridge, and burying any moisture near the surface.
The ridge aloft is going to be reinforced by an off shore jet ridge over the next couple of days which will help fog and low clouds begin to burn off a little more efficiently, however the ridge started settling in earlier today, and if anything, the low level moisture has become even more pernicious. Still, expect the area to remain precipitation free, and eventually some sunshine will break through before the weekend arrives.
Tomorrow – Overcast, with a few breaks of sun, High 40, Low 30
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 45, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing. High 44, Low 30
Friday – Mainly cloudy. High 46, Low 32

AW: Tomorrow – Low clouds and fog, then perhaps some sun with a shower in spots in the afternoon High 44, Low 27
Friday – Low clouds High 46, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Widespread dense fog, mainly before 10am. Areas of freezing fog before 7am. Otherwise, cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, high 47, Low 29
Friday – Areas of fog before 10am. High 48, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy in the morning, becoming partly cloudy. Widespread fog in the morning, High 41, Low 31
Friday – Areas of fog in the morning. Partly sunny, High 44, Low 33

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a light wintry mix, High 44, Low 32
Friday – Partly cloudy with a light wintry mix, High 46, Low 33

CLI: 404, not found

It’s been a while since a forecast didn’t show up. It looks like Clime is fully on the fritz, as I punched in a bunch of sits, and nothing appeared for me. Nothing is appearing for anyone in parts of Oregon this week, given the clouds and fog in the area, visible on satellite below.

Florence, Alabama

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

We as Americans are blessed with two fairly large Florences. The one in Alabama, the one we are forecasting for today, features a bit of history, as the site of famous recording studios during the early ages of rock and popular music. Let’s see if this forecast rocks, eh?

At 953PM, CT, Florence was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 35 degrees. Dew points were near 20, and surely, Florence would drop below freezing overnight. Since Florence has already had their first freeze for the year, freeze warnings were confined to the Gulf Coast, north of a cold front and on the northern end of the strong jet trough that fed the system in the northeast yesterday.
The jet trough is long waved, and not expected to move much for the next two days. This means the cold pool parked over Alabama isn’t going to shift out of town either. There will be chilly days and even colder nights in Florence, given the clear skies that are expected.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 53, Low 25
Sunday – Sunny, High 52, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Generally sunny despite a few afternoon clouds High 52, Low 25
Sunday – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 51, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 50, Low 24
Sunday – Partly sunny High 52, Low 32

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 50, Low 24
Sunday – Mostly sunny, High 51, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 27
Sunday – Partly cloudy in the morning, then clearing, High 48, Low 36

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 50, Low 24
Sunday – Partly cloudy, High 50, Low 30

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 51, Low 28
Sunday – Sunny, High 51, Low 33

A look at the satellite provides a good look at warmth radiating out of the southeast overnight (AKA, clear skies). Well, at least north of that band of clouds in central Florida.

Fort Smith, Arkansas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Western Arkansas, just south of the Ouachita Mountains is where Fort Smith lies. It’s an interesting place to forecast for at any time of year, but particularly with the holidays on the way.

At 953PM, CT, Fort Smith was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures were dropping precipitously in Oklahoma and Arkansas, but Fort Smith found itself to be the cool spot of the region, even among the more recently reporting spots. The jet has shifted to the middle of the country, a sure indicator of the looming winter season, and an opening for the threat of particularly chilly air in Fort Smith. Surface low pressure is analyzed south of the Quad Cities, and a cold front is stretched through Kansas, poised to drop through Arkansas tomorrow.
The cold front may touch off a few showers in and around Fort Smith about midday tomorrow, setting the stage for a breezy and cool afternoon. Tuesday will be cool, but dry as a weak ridge sets up, anticipating a busy holiday travel week.
Tomorrow – Drizzle around midday, cloudy and getting cooler, High 60, Low 40
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 34

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy early with partial sunshine expected late. Slight chance of a rain shower.  High 59, Low 43
Tuesday – Mostly sunny skies. High 59, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy most of the time, breezy and cooler High 61, Low 43
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 57, Low 34

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 61, Low 44
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 58, Low 36

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, high 59, Low 42
Tuesday – Sunny, High 57, Low 37

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 61, Low 43
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny, High 58, Low 36

CLI: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 67, Low 41
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 35

As you may have established, the low on Monday will come at midnight, leading into Tuesday. The cold front is not active, but you should still be able to find it on the satellite imagery.

Midland, Texas

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

Midland used to be the Weather Forecast Office that I would think about when thinking of severe thunderstorms, but in recent years, that focus has certainly shifted eastward. In mid-November, though, Midland could still provide a few forecast thrills.

AT 953AM, ET, Midland was reporting a temperature of 58 degrees with clear skies. An upper level ridge is parked over the Mississippi Valley, and sitting on the western flank of this ridge is allowing west Texas to remain comfortable and dry. A weak but active boundary east of the Mississippi is pushing most of the moisture in the middle of the country well away from the Lone Star State.
The upper level ridge will only work to get broader while a sharply angled trough in the western US will begin to get stronger flow through it. This will lead to an increase in warm air for Midland, however the narrow but strong wave will have a difficult time translating eastward. The beginning of the weekend will be warm and pleasant for west Texas, if a bit breezy.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 79, Low 47
Saturday – Sunny with a bit of a breeze, High 82, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 79, Low 47
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. High 81, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny, breezy and pleasant High 76, Low 47
Saturday – Mostly sunny and very warm High 80, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 49
Saturday – Sunny, High 80, Low 56

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 47
Saturday – Sunny, High 80, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 77, Low 50
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 56

CLI: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 78, Low 48
Saturday – Partly cloudy, High 81, low 54

Well, that is sure a pleasant forecast, isn’t it? Let’s just say it is probably good this forecast stops at Saturday. For now, the satellite is basically a picture of Texas.

Carson City, Nevada

Ryan Henning 1 Comment

After toiling in the Midwest pretty regularly of late, we are going to head out west, and the state capital of the Silver State. What’s up, Carson City?

At 1235PM, PT, Carson City was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 57 degrees. An area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest was directing a cold front through the Sierras. There was precipitation on the western faces of the mountains, and blustery winds over the mountains and through the eastern slopes, including Carson City, where wind speeds were gusting to 30mph.
The trough off the west coast is going to remain in place for the foreseeable future, which means the low in the area is going to recycle, and flow will continue from the west into California and eventually western Nevada. The moisture won’t be robust, so it will struggle to breach the mountains until the trough itself is able to move into the Great Basin. Thursday will continue to see some patch cloudiness, but Friday will see the introduction of some light rain with a possible snowy mix into the forecast.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 50, Low 36
Friday – Chance of light showers, mixing with snow, High 45, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 51, Low 33
Friday – Mainly cloudy. A shower of rain or wet snow possible High 40, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a shower in places; cool High 52, low 29
Friday – Cloudy and colder High 43, Low 29

NWS: Tomorrow -A 30 percent chance of rain, mainly after 10am. Snow level 5700 feet rising to 6200 feet in the afternoon. Mostly sunny, High 53, Low 29
Friday – Snow, mainly before 4pm. High 42, Low 25

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny in the morning and then becoming partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain and snow, High 50, Low 32
Friday – Snow likely, High 41, Low 28

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 52, Low 31
Friday – Mostly cloudy with light snow, High 42, Low 28

CLI: Tomorrow – Light rain showers, High 51, Low 29
Friday Heavy snow showers, High 44, low 27

That’s enough out of me, here is the scene from KOLO news in Reno.