Updates 2/14

9:48PM: You can tell it’s Valentine’s Day looking at the NWS alerts and warnings map on the side panel. There are a lot of pinks and purples out there! The good news is, those shades aren’t prominently displayed when you get to the Philadelphia and New York City area. Sure, it’s another winter storm, but at least we aren’t going to see busy hubs waylaid too badly. Still, snow is coming, and it is going to be a sluggish weekend in the Great Lakes.

Laredo, Texas to Binghamton, New York

It’s a busy stretch of weather across almost the entire country, so obviously let’s just drive right through it. It’s going to take 3 1/2 days to cover the 1,965 miles between the two cities. Fortunately, we will have a lot of freeway time, which will mean a pace of 67.8mph, or 542 a day for those first three days.

DAY ONE (Friday)

Laredo is the county seat of Webb County, Texas, United States, on the north bank of the Rio Grande in South Texas, across from Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, Mexico.

The most recent storm system to sweep through the country caused some nasty weather in the southeastern US last night, particularly with tornadoes in Alabama and Georgia. The feature is going to be bothering Labrador by the time we are hitting the road from Laredo, though, and we will have the benefit of relatively cool high pressure for the drive through the Lone Star State. Arrival in Louisiana will coincide with a return flow setting up, and the potential for some low level moisture, including mist and light rain from Lake Charles to our destination for Friday night, Cecilia. Don’t be surprise if this turns into some murky fog as we set out on Saturday morning.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
That return flow from the Gulf is going to find a ripe environment in the Plains for development. As we get started, precipitation will already have exploded from the Great Lakes, where snow is possible, south through the Tennessee Valley. We will drive through the day in the warm sector of this new feature. By the end of the day, the pivot point for the surface low will be centered around Cincinnati, with a cold front to Shreveport and a warm front stretched towards Washington. With this positioning, Fog will be possible in the morning, through our northerly turn at Slidell, but the clouds may start filtering back in as we hit some terrain in northern Alabama, calling it a night in Hammondville, Alabama, which will come right before we pass into Georgia and then Chattanooga.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
That rain, including some embedded thunderstorm activity is going to hit like a freight train overnight in northern Alabama. It will still be pouring as we start packing our things to hit the road on Sunday morning. The bulk of the severe activity will hit to the west and a little south of our stop in Hammondville, but flash flooding is severe weather too. Our drive through steep terrain for most of the day may be plagued by some lingering effects, as heavy precipitation will have moved through every section of our route. If there is good news, it is that precipitation will move too quickly to really add up. Still, bear in mind the slick roadways and embrace how much drier it is by the time we get to the eastern face of the Appalachians, where rain will cut off much sooner. The day will take us to Woodstock in northern Virginia, leaving a half day to Binghamton.

DAY FOUR (Monday)
In the wake of the most recent round of significant weather coming this weekend, brisk west wind will trigger an active lake effect regime throughout the Eastern Great Lakes, Mostly clear skies should dominate our drive, with an exception as we approach Binghamton, when some of that Lake snow may filter through.

Binghamton, New York

An icy weekend

I have to believe that most football fans in Southeast Pennsylvania were happy with the way the Super Bowl turned out on Sunday. I bet they barely noticed in Lebanon that over a 10th of an inch of ice coated light snow through the region on Friday. Everyone, somehow, pegged the snow and ice, so it came down to the thermometer, where the differentiator was a warm day on Friday. Accuweather and WeatherBug took a share of the win.
Actuals: Friday – High 41, Low 31
Saturday – .33 inches of liquid in snow and ice, High 32, Low 24

Grade: C-D

Snow stretches from the Plains to New England

It’s been a very snowy day nationwide. A quick moving feature starting from the Northern Plains and raced east where there are still winter weather warnings out.

Much is being reported about multiple rounds of storms afflicting the country this coming week, and this first round is informative. You can’t get a bunch of storms unless they are fairly tame and move at lightning speed.

Lebanon, Pennsylvania to Williamsport, Pennsylvania

After so many long trips across the country, it’s so nice just to journey within one state. This Keystone State drive will last only a couple of hours and cover just 93 miles of rugged terrain. We are looking at a pace of only 42mph! Let’s roll on, I guess.

Lebanon, Pennsylvania

It’s currently snowing throughout out eastern Pennsylvania, which may lead to some lingering slick roadways, particularly the more lightly traveled and higher elevation roads. The precipitation will be wrapped up as we head out, but chilly wind with the fresh snow will make the drive, short that it may be, fairly challenging. Having a bit of sunshine will help, and the sun has a better chance of peeking out if we leave later in the day.

Williamsport, Pennsylvania

Lebanon, Pennsylvania

After some pretty disastrous forecasting results to start the year, I am hoping that a return to the eastern US will give our outlets a bit better fortune. Of course that only works if the weather is quiet. That doesn’t look to be the case…

At 955PM, ET, Lebanon was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with fog. The entirety of southeastern Pennsylvania was blanketed by fog in the wake of a cold front that was reaching the South Jersey coast. Low pressure has shifted into New England, with clearing air behind the boundary. Tonight, however, the lingering low level moisture and cooling air is fostering the low visibility in the region.
Friday will be brisk, but dry at the surface. With clearer skies tomorrow, expect the daily low at midnight, leading to Saturday. The strong seasonal jet is continuing to run west to east through the Ohio Valley into the mid Atlantic. The jet features many streaks, so even though the flow is laminar, redevelopment of surface features is ongoing. Low pressure will reemerge in the Plains and start lifting a warm front towards Lebanon by Saturday afternoon. Some wet snow may fall initially, but it will be followed by an icy mix.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, low 26
Saturday – Snow starts in the afternoon, and turns to a wintry mix. High 34, Low 22

TWC Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 38, Low 24
Saturday – Cloudy. Snow showers developing in the afternoon High 34, Low 21

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy and windy; High 39, Low 26
Saturday – Cloudy with a coating to an inch of snow and sleet late in the afternoon; deteriorating travel conditions at nigh High 36, Low 23

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 35, Low 26
Saturday – A chance of snow before 4pm, then a chance of snow and sleet. Mostly cloudy, High 35, Low 22

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 26
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, a chance of snow, freezing rain an sleet in the afternoon, High 34, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 34, Low 26
Saturday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of sleet/snow High 35, Low 23

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 37, Low 22
Saturday – Blowing snow, High 38, Low 20

The system that left the fog left ice this morning. Sub optimal to be expecting it again so soon.

The trouble with the mountains

A fun thing about forecasting in the foothills of the Rockies is that it’s tough to say with certainty exactly how your forecast is going to be off. You know that something will go sideways, but what, exactly? In the instance of Colorado Springs, it was our forecast lows on both Saturday and Sunday. We all saw clear overnight skies, which should have meant chilly morning lows. Alas, it was not to be. There were favorable winds for warming up the region, especially some howling southerlies on Sunday, and the cool temperature ended up a full 10 degrees warmer than most forecasts. Colorado springs embarrassed most outlets, but The Weather Channel held on for a W.
Actuals: Saturday, High 52, Low 41
Sunday, High 59, Low 41

Grade: C-F

January Forecaster of the Month

It was a topsy turvy weather month, with the tragic and catastrophic fires in Los Angeles to the bizarre snow storm in the southeast. The month, and the era are both so out of sorts, it’s good to say that the top forecaster title belonged to the NWS last month.

OutletForecast Wins (year)
National Weather Service2
Accuweather1
Clime1
The Weather Channel
Victoria-Weather
WeatherNation
Weatherbug