The tendency for most people I know is to look deeper and deeper into the future until you can finally find a bit of satisfying news. If you team is having a bad year, look ahead to your prospects, or failing that, the draft. If a city is battling historic wild fires, then keep looking further out until it seems like there are good opportunities to settle some of these blazes.

The current situation regarding fire containment is below, even as the Santa Anas are howling again:

The largest, most destructive fires are increasingly under control, though obviously, and particularly with the Palisades fire, there is quite a ways to go. While loss of property will continue to be a concern, the fire is now over a week old, and those that need to evacuate should be safe, even as the fires may flare again thanks to the winds.

Unfortunately, even after the wind is expected to abate through the day tomorrow, and fire crews will hopefully be able to get the fires reined in even more, the Climate Prediction Center has issued their outlook for next week. Cold weather will continue to be a block in the east, and Santa Anas, along with the dry weather that has unfolded this season, will continue.

Particularly from the dates of January 23rd through the 25th, the CPC specifically calls out a “40-50% chance of below normal precipitation” and a “40-60% chance of hazardous high winds” neither of which are what we want to hear right now. Even if the drought continues, the cold air in the east needs to move out so the winds can die down. That’s when the fires can be put out, and Californians can start to rebuild and recover.

The current windchill is in the 40’s all the way down to north Florida and the Texas Gulf Coast. And those figures are 80 degrees warmer than what Minot, North Dakota is seeing tonight. This chilly intrusion is illustrated by a very strong jet streak in the southeastern US and a trough angled from the Great Lakes to the southwest.

The jet underscores the cold air, and the angle of the trough is keeping the pattern in place. Persistence often leads to problems, as whatever conditions are held in place can wear down infrastructure. The precipitation associated with this storm is off shore, so flooding is not a concern. The growing cold will continue to be a concern for the next couple of days.

The real problem, of course, is that it is holding a dry, windy pattern over southern California. A lot of us in the Midwest are hoping for a warm up. Californians may not know it, but they will too. Recovery may not really start until that big trough clears out and the pattern changes. Right now, that looks like Wednesday. Hang in there.

Fires in the Los Angeles area have made headlines this week, for being the most destructive in the history of the city, for afflicting so many familiar faces, and for sweeping through the area in January, when we should just be reaching the height of the wet season in California.

I don’t discuss climate change much here, because I like to distinctly separate climate from meteorology. To that end, it is important to distinguish that climate change did not cause this tragedy, but rather created an environment in which such a tragedy might occur. The long term effects of climate change are best left to discussion by climatologists, and those knowledgeable of the systems climate change will impact. While climate change did not necessarily cause the fires, as I said, the weather of the last year set the stage for the disaster, and the weather of the last couple of days may have caused the fires, and certainly made them exponentially worse. Don’t take my lack of discussion on the climate as any sort of commentary on anything other than – I am a meteorologist, and I am not an authoritative source on climatology. I can tell you all about the local, short term weather that made these fires what they are.

The first thing that you need to make a fire is the fuel for the fire. After years of drought, last winter was a wet one in California. A thirsty terrain was given a healthy drink of water at the beginning of 2024, and plant life that had been scoured through years of fire and drought came back and was replenished. And then, after the wet winter and early spring, it stopped raining, and it got dry again in southern California.

More recently, high pressure has settled into the southern Rockies behind a strong trough bringing the cold air and snow in the southeastern US. The flow around high pressure is clockwise, and positioned where it is, it will be off shore in southern California, meaning that it is dry. Additionally, because he high pressure was strong, and gravity and temperature changes between the sea and land played a bit of a role, the winds this session were absolutely howling over the Santa Ana Mountains. The wind was strong enough to cause damage on it’s own, including to power lines.

Most wildfires, especially in southern California, are of human origin, either because of the intentional setting of them, or more likely in this case, because of downed power lines, which is why power companies out west are sued so regularly. The downing of these power lines is also a problem, because power lines are near people. With a swelling population, there are more power lines and a greater exposure to a fire. Additionally, fires are now more likely to start near inhabited areas, simply because of the infrastructure covering more territory.

There isn’t any rain in the near future for southern California, however there is some hope in the form of reduced winds. High pressure does look like it will be tapering off early next week. As the fires are currently uncontrolled they will likely get worse before they get better first.

It’s frankly been a runaway since the summer for our top forecaster of 2024. While some outlets had very good months, and we had our wins here and there, The Weather Channel was consistent throughout the year. They had the most individual forecast wins this year, and were the top forecaster based on consistently finishing near the top of the standings, even when they weren’t the best for the day. Congratulations to The Weather Channel, and thank you all for another fun year at The Weather Blog!