Jonesboro, Arkansas

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One of the reasons I like to write the road trip forecasts is because I enjoy taking random road trips. I go to random college or professional sporting events, get a feel for a town or school or team, and see what I can see along the way. It’s a lovely way to see America. With that in mind, I’ve been to Jonesboro, and despite the weather, which was dreary, I enjoyed my time.

At 1053PM, CT, Jonesboro was reporting a temperature of 83 degrees with clear skies. The jet flow lies well to the north, and is fairly laminar. Both of these factors are leading to the starry sky tonight across the Diamond State.
The zonal, laminar flow across much of the country is going to reinforce the development of a lee trough. Surface level circulation will be southerly over Arkansas, with a warm front setting up in Missouri. This will prevent showers and storms from drifting southward, and Jonesboro, in southerly flow, will wilt in ongoing heat and humidity.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 100, Low 79
Thursday – Sunny, High 100, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 98, Low 78
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 99, Low 78

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and hot; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 77
Thursday – Breezy and hot with clouds giving way to some sun; danger of dehydration and heatstroke if outside for extended periods of time High 99, Low 78

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny and hot, High 99, Low 78
Thursday – Sunny and hot, High 100, Low 79

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. High 99, Low 81
Thursday – Sunny. High 98, Low 83

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 78
Thursday – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 79

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy High, 99,, Low 76
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 100, Low 78

Another hot one. I’m including the satellite here to check out the convective activity over in Tennessee.

Season high

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I am willing to guess that the temperatures we saw in Fresno are going to end up being the warmest we see all year. On the 2nd and 3rd of the month, temperatures climbed to 106, which, as you may know, is quite warm. It was the rare forecast in which the consensus was actually the best forecast, as the various outlets darted around the verified numbers. Otherwise, it was a three way tie between the National Weather Service, WeatherNation and Clime.
Actuals: August 2nd, High 106, Low 70
August 3rd, High 106, Low 72

Grade: A

Norwich, Connecticut to Fort Collins, Colorado

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We’re not staying in Connecticut long, as we have a forecast back to the west. This trip to Colorado will be shorter than our most recent trip, covering 1934 miles, over the course of 3/12 days. That works out to an average speed of 66.7mph, and a daily mileage of 533.5 miles.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

Norwich, Connecticut

There is this band of orphaned moisture riding the back of a broad ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic, and it is leading to chances for showers up and down the coast to about the Appalachians. On the other side of Appalachia, a cold front is meekly trying to move through, further drawing moist air further to the north. This will mean a mostly cloudy day, driving through New York, with some coastal showers in Connecticut at the outset, and then, as that front approaches Appalachia, we could see a few showers for the concluding bit of our driver, between Buffalo and Erie, where we stop for the night.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
The cold front will be beyond us by the time we depart Erie on Sunday morning, giving us a fairly unperturbed drive through Ohio and Indiana. The next little vorticity maximum will be rotating through the western Great Lakes by the end of our day on Sunday, which may lead to a few showers and an isolated embedded thunderstorm over northern Illinois. I would call it west of Joliet, which would get us through Chicago, but showers and storms would be possible all the way to Langley, Illinois, which is about 30 miles west of La Salle, and our destination for Sunday night.

DAY THREE (Monday)
This time of year, especially after a bit of rain overnight, I wouldn’t be surprised by “corn sweat” in the morning. That would be fog that arises thanks to the latent moisture provided by crops, mostly corn, that are approaching their harvest time. High pressure will be in place, and we should see the sun through western Iowa and into Nebraska. It will be getting warm as we arrive in Kearney for the night, as low pressure in the high Plains is developing a warm front. This may also serve as a guide for some overnight convection, but that should hold off until after we have arrived .

DAY FOUR (Tuesday)
Surface high pressure will be all the rage again as we get going on Tuesday morning. The unbroken horizon of Nebraska will lay ahead of us, and it will be a race to see the mountains. We’ll arrive in Fort Collins without much concern, though by afternoon showers and storms will be popping up in along the dry line of eastern Colorado.

Fort Collins, Colorado

One for the Thumb

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When we forecast for Saginaw last week, there was a storm brewing in the Upper Peninsula. The storm waned overnight, and eventually had its last gasp around Oscoda, with the waning showers hitting the “thumb” of Michigan, east of Saginaw. Another round of storms brought a devastating tornado to Appleton, Wisconsin, along with some late showers and storms that did afflict Saginaw. Those storms did last a few minutes into early morning Tuesday, which really altered the picture for forecast winners and losers. The winner, in the end, was WeatherNation. OK, they would have won anyways, but it did make some mid-level forecasters drop off!
Actuals: Monday, July 27th, .21″ of rain, High 88, Low 68
Tuesday, July 28th, .08″ of rain, High 77, Low 70

Grade: C

Fresno, California to Norwich, Connecticut

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This summer has been hot, but the temperatures aren’t as rough as they have been lately, and the storm activity in particular is quiet. It’s a perfect time to take a week and cross the country! We’re going to be driving for 6 days, with the 6 day mercifully shorter than the first 5, at a pace of 67.7mph. This will give us daily goals of 542 miles a day as we cross 3046 miles of America.

DAY ONE (Wednesday)

Fresno, California

The story in California and through the Southwest is that it is hot. We will go south to avoid some mountains and drive right through the desert, near Death Valley and past Las Vegas. We won’t find much relief from the heat until we start climbing in Utah, and we won’t do that until near the end of the day. We will stop in southern Utah, in the town of Summit, which lies not far from where we will turn onto I-70.

DAY TWO (Thursday)
Moisture is being funneled eastward, which keeping the monsoon stunted. Storms are appearing in Arizona, but I’m not particularly concerned about the mountain passes of the central Rockies. We will make it to the fringes of the mountain community of Golden, west of Denver.

DAY THREE (Friday)
It seems like all long road trips end up spending a night in Nebraska. We’re looking into this. Our week will end near Omaha, really on the southwestern outskirts. If there was going to be any rain, this would have been the day, just for the excitement. We’ll still be rain free as we check in to the hotel in Omaha.

DAY FOUR (Saturday)
More of the same as we start, with dry skies until Des Moines, for sure. A few scattered showers will emerge as a possibility east of Des Moines, but not one that will ruin our day. Unless they come in Chicago, at which point all bets are off. That would ruin the day. Expect traffic to remain dicey regardless of the weather. Let’s get out of Chicago before the night ends, finishing in LaPorte, Indiana.

DAY FIVE (Sunday)
The moisture threat will linger through the weekend, produced by a dissipated area of low pressure and penned by high pressure in the Atlantic. There won’t be much convective activity, and as we reach the hills of Appalachia, the rain will be misty, and more likely the higher we are. The day will end south of Williamsport, in Eastville.

DAY SIX (Monday)
In a bit of good news, all that moisture is going to be hemmed to the west of the Appalachians. There may be a bit of low level moisture – fog or light mist – as we set out, but the drive into New England looks to be clear and dry. And significantly cooler than Fresno.

Norwich, Connecticut

Norwich, Connecticut

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Off to New England as we reach he dog days of summer. I suspect that many residents in the Norwich area would happily be on their way to Martha’s Vineyard or otherwise on vacation this time of year.

At 852PM, ET, Norwich was seeing a temperature of 72 degrees with clear skies. The temperatures over Long Island and near the coast in Connecticut were a shade lower as the sun had less time to shine. Left over mid level moisture along the coast has continued to mean clouds from Long Island southward, and with high pressure parked over the Atlantic will keep it in place for a while.
The next feature to keep an eye on is a standing trough in the Great Lakes. While the cold front won’t be moving eastward in any kind of hurry, the little progression there is will draw some of that lingering coastal moisture further north. The mere act of inducing some motion within this moist air mass will lead to some general showers and storms that will eventually reach eastern Connecticut by Thursday evening.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 61
Thursday – Late showers and storms, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 87, Low 67

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 59
Thursday – AM Showers, High 88, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Humid with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 83, Low 57
Thursday – Uncomfortably humid with intervals of clouds and sun; an afternoon thunderstorm in parts of the area High 86. Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, mostly sunny (late rain), High 84, Low 58
Thursday – A chance of showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Patchy fog between 7am and 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 87, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Patchy fog in the morning. Mostly sunny. (late rain) High 85, Low 64
Thursday – Partly sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 87, Low 70

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with showers and isolated storms, High 87, Low 68

CLI: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 86, Low 59
Thursday – Light rain showers, High 87, Low 70

There isn’t enough there, in my opinion, to worry about showers tomorrow. It’s barely concerning on Thursday. Satellite shows those clouds along the Mid-Atantic coast.