It truly is an honor to say that we were there when we forecast for rain in central California, and it verified accurately. Indeed, our forecast in Hanford did verify with a half inch of rain on Monday and Tuesday, which most outlets had figured correctly. The biggest area of difference was the low temperature on Tuesday, which was a few degrees warmer than anticipated. All told, a pretty good forecast, considering the location and the fact that there was actually weather. Victoria-Weather and WeatherNation combined for the victory. Actuals: Monday .46 inches of rain, High 60, Low 46 Tuesday .02 inches of rain, High 60, Low 44
3:19PM – Low pressure in Eastern Canada is quit occluded, enough so the original low has kicked off a secondary trough breezing through the western Great Lakes. There is a little rain in Minnesota and Iowa, and some strong gusts as well.
7:02PM – The system moving through the country this weekend is evocative of an Alberta Clipper. It starts today in the northern Rockies and will get stronger as it dives southeast, where the best shot for severe storms will crop up on Sunday. And yes, there will probably be some snow, up on the Canadian border and Northern Great Lakes.
What are the signs of spring that you look for? If you are a normal person, you are likely looking for that first robin to land in your front yard, or for the daffodils to start blooming. If you are a meteorologist or weather super fan, you are on the look out for big, multifaceted storms rumbling through the middle of the country. I can’t speak to the daffodils in your neighborhood, but we have certainly seen those big storms.
Storms at the beginning of the week were particularly nasty. An EF-4 tornado struck Diaz, Arkansas, while 43 were killed across several states, including 12 in Missouri. Rolla and Poplar Bluff were among the towns to sustain significant damage. Strong storms continued through the Southeast and Mid Atlantic with more tornadoes striking from Louisiana to Alabama, and to the north in Illinois and Indiana. There were also gusty winds and large hail. Given that so many storms struck overnight, an the tornado count was as high as it was, the death toll certainly could have been higher.
The storms have been large enough that they showed up in the long term guidance well in advance of the storm. There were outlooks for severe weather in the 4-9 day SPC outlooks for this storm, as well as the smaller storm early this week (which brought 3 separate small tornadoes to Gary, Indiana!). There is a threat again on Sunday of this weekend for more rough stuff in the Tennessee Valley, though the threat is not as great as these past two rounds. It’s a sign of how pronounced the upper air pattern is. A sure sign of spring.
I noted that these storms were multifaceted. Not only did the storms bring severe weather of the thunderstorm variety, but also of the winter variety, with blizzard conditions coming with both storms in parts of the Upper Midwest. The dynamics of the storm lead to narrow bands of heavy snowfall, and as significantly, strong winds that impacted visibility. Again, this is the nature of spring.
Most people aren’t meteorologists, however, and the larger part of the universe is awaiting warm weather, and I assure you, it is coming. The beginning of the season is a great time to look at the CPC outlook for the next three months. Great news for the sunseekers, because no part of the country, aside from western Alaska, should expect below normal temperatures.
8:00PM It’s been storms across a big cross section of the country that have earned a lot of headlines, but one area that hasn’t seen the rain is Florida, and to a degree, the Coastal Plains. Moderately dry conditions are leading to concerns for fires in this area. High winds further west also bring worry about fire and how fast they would spread in the Plains.
The end of the week was a stormy time for a great chunk of the country. And it all started popping off juuuuuuuust to the east of St. Joseph, Missouri, where the early afternoon on Friday brought a little bit of rain and a few gusts to start things off, but that was it. Well, almost. They also got the cold air behind the front. That’s where the real surprise came. St. Joseph reported a trace of snow late on Saturday. That was not on anyone’s bingo board. The National Weather Service had the top forecast for the storm kickoff. Actuals: Friday -.04 inches of rain, High 79, Low 57 Saturday – .04 inches of liquid in snow, High 59, Low 34
Were heading for the Panhandle as spring is beginning to emerge nationwide. A reminder that the Florida Panhandle is more aligned with the American Southeast than it is with Peninsular Florida, where the weather is concerned. Let’s see how that plays into the forecast.
At 1255AM, ET, Fort Walton Beach was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with clear skies. Temperatures dropped significantly just inland, and the warm air drifting ashore suggested the potential for some fog in the morning, especially with dew points nearly matching the air temperature. Strong low pressure in the Plains is belaboring the pattern, which would otherwise be counterintuitive, given the temperature dynamics. A strong trough in the Plains is going to allow surface low pressure to intensify and shift to the northeast, all the while pulling in more warm Gulf air to the Panhandle. The day tomorrow will be warm and humid, however a cold front will arrive in Fort Walton Beach early on Thursday, bringing a chance for some light showers and a notably cooler day to follow. Tomorrow – Warm with some morning haze, High 73, Low 59 Thursday – Morning showers, then clearing and cooler, High 66, Low 50
TWC: Tomorrow – Sunshine and some clouds High 73, Low 58 Thursday – Mostly sunny (Early rain), High 68, Low 52
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and pleasant; great day to be outside High 75, Low 57 Thursday – Sunny and windy (Early rain) High 68, Low 54
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 74, Low 55 Thursday – Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, (Early rain) High 67, Low 50
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny. (Late showers) High 72, Low 62 Thursday – Sunny cooler. Less humid (Early rain) High 67, Low 50
CLI: Tomorrow – Clear High 74, Low 56 Thursday – Sunny (Early rain) High 67, Low 46
Thursday, after the frontal passage, is expected to be non standard. Surprise! We have a bit of cloud debris collecting on the Mississippi Delta. Will this spread? I suspect it will.
Our forecast today takes us to the Central Valley of California, where the weather may not provide the reprieve you typically expect.
At 1253PM, Hanford was reporting a clear skies and a temperature of 62 degrees. Northern California, particularly at the higher terrain is under advisories for high wind and snow. At the lower terrain, a trough moving ashore from the Pacific Northwestern coast will carry a significant feature with it. The associated cold front will slide into central California with less fanfare, but will still introduce rain through the afternoon tomorrow. The moisture will linger through the morning with more drizzle and fog to start Tuesday. A cooler morning, thanks to clouds and a northerly flow will result. Expect snow to persist in the mountains northeast of town for much longer. High pressure builds in by the end of the day across California. Tomorrow – Rain likely in the afternoon, High 58, Low 45 Tuesday – Rain early, fog and clouds linger, High 60, Low 39
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with periods of rain. High 55, Low 48 Tuesday – Sunny skies (early rain). High 62, Low 41
AW: Tomorrow – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; cool; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour High 62, Low 50 Tuesday – Cool with clouds giving way to sun High 63, Low 39
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain before 2pm, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. High 60, Low 49 Tuesday – Sunny High 62, Low 40
WB: Tomorrow – Rain in the morning then rain showers in the afternoon. High 55, Low 48 Tuesday – Sunny (early rain). High 60, Low 43
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain and isolated storms, High 57, Low 50 Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 61, Low 42
CLI: Tomorrow – Thunderstorm, High 59, Low 48 Tuesday – Sunny, High 60, Low 39
Some differing opinions on the rain for central California, which opens the possibility of an interesting verification. Some clouds showing up to the north, a precursor to what’s coming.
We looked at Poughkeepsie, New York at the beginning of the week. The town was in a clear patch between two systems. The northern system was robbed of moisture by the southern feature, and everyone but the Weather Channel and the GFS believed that Poughkeepsie would see dry skies, and everyone but the Weather Channel and the GFS were correct. It was dry in the atmosphere on Tuesday, which led to a wider temperature delta than was expected. Scores weren’t great, but Accuweather earned a win. Actuals: Tuesday – High 70, Low 29 Wednesday – High 48, Low 35
