Tag Archives: Wichita

A good day all around in Wichita

The weather of the past two days in Wichita was magnificent, with temperatures climbing up into the upper 70s, warmer even than the most optimistic forecasting outlets. Significantly warmer, actually. Additionally, the Wichita State Shockers, a 10 seed, ended up defeating the Dayton Flyers in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Not bad at all. On top of that, everyone could go outside for their St. Patrick’s Day parade! The Weather Channel enjoyed the top forecast of the day.
Actuals: Thursday – High 76, Low 38
Friday – High 78, Low 50

Grade: B-D

Wichita, Kansas

It’s NCAA tournament time, which means all of our forecasts will make us think about the basketball teams in the area for a while. Well, Wichita is home to Wichita State (duh), a 10 seed and one of the popular sleepers in this year’s tournament. Will the weather be kind while residents are watching their local team?

At 753PM, CT, Wichita was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A ridge was advancing eastward from the Front Range, and promised a significant warm up across the region. A light southerly wind was only going to get stronger as tomorrow projects as a much warmer day.
There is a broad, weak trough embedded within the apex of the larger scale ridge, and this feature will generate a weak surface feature in the Canadian Prairies. Return flow into the wave will induce some extra cloudiness tomorrow evening. The upper level trough will strengthen and reinforce the trough that presently exists east of the Mississippi. As the trough develops aloft, the feature at the surface will also  deepen, with a cold front developing through the Ozarks. Fortunately, it will be late enough in the day and without any real upper level support, so the cool down in Wichita will be minimal, despite being behind the front, and the threat for precipitation is low enough that I will be leaving it out of the forecast.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 67, Low 40
Friday – Overcast, with a cool down late.69, Low 49

TWC: Tomorrow – Wind increasing. A few clouds from time to time. High 73, Low 38
Friday – Partly cloudy. High 72, Low 51

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and warmer with some sunshine giving way to clouds High 72, Low 40
Friday – Mostly cloudy High 72, Low 50

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 73, Low 40
Friday – Partly sunny, High 70, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, warmer. High 71, Low 39
Friday – Mostly sunny, HIgh 69, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 73, Low 39
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 70, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy until evening.High 72, Low 37
Friday – Partly cloudy until evening.High 68, Low 48.

Here is a surface analysis I drew for the region earlier. High pressure out east, with a weak perturbation in the Rockies. Warm air is moving into the region.

Rumblings in Wichita

Wichita was always going to be a tough forecast. They sat astride of an oscillating boundary, awaiting the advance of a low that was to descend out of the southern Rockies. This low actually kicked much more warm air into the region than expected. This negated the forecasts for mixed precip and helped fuel the atmosphere for some thunderstorms, a rare treat in Wichita in early February. The forecasts that erred on the side of cooler temperatures were way off, but those that hedged their bets towards warmer temperatures came through nicely. Forecast.io, still basking in their victorious glow of January, just went out and crushed this forecast too.
Actuals: Sunday – High 56, Low 38
Monday- .21 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 57, Low 33

Grade: A-C

Wichita, Kansas

We’re set up for a pretty hectic week across the center of the country this time. How nasty will it get in Wichita?

At 953PM, CT, Wichita was reporting mostly clear skies with a temperature of 52 degrees. There was a weak warm front just to the northwest of Wichita, producing a drop in temperature of up to 10 degrees, but not any precipitation. Surface low pressure lies centered in western Kansas near Liberal, and is expected to shoot to the east through Kansas overnight and through the day tomorrow. It will take until late in the afternoon for cooler air to start to cycle south at the back end of the trough, but by that time, a stronger feature in the Rockies will begin to advect warm air from the south again, buoying temperatures.
Southerly flow will continue through the day on Monday. Winds will pick up through the day as surface low pressure approaches from the west. This system will eventually be a major snow maker in the northern Plains, but late in the day Monday, it will simply bring rain and an occasional thunderstorm. As a cold front forms on Tuesday, this feature may ultimately be responsible for a tornado outbreak in the southeast. During the forecast period, though, it will just be rain with isolated thunderstorms late on Monday.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 53, Low 38
Monday – Rain and thunderstorms possible late, High 51, Low 36

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies, High 54, Low 38
Monday – Cloudy skies early, then windy with a few showers later in the day, High 53, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy and cooler with some sun High 53, Low 39
Monday – Cloudy and increasingly windy with occasional rain High 47, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 52, Low 38
Monday – A slight chance of snow and freezing rain before 9am, then a slight chance of rain and snow between 9am and noon, then a chance of rain after noon. Mostly cloudy High 47, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 52, Low 38
Monday – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain, freezing rain and snow in the morning, then a cance of rain in the afternoon. High 47, Low 30.

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 52, Low 37
Monday – Mostly Cloudy with Slight Chance of Light Wintry Mix High 46, Low 30

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 58, Low 38
Monday – Rain starting in the evening. High 55, Low 33

That’s going to be a cranky system midweek next week. The rain Monday night will be the first tasted of it. Here is satellite, where nothing is showing up particularly great. Most of the temperature machinations are operating without much evidence.
Wichita

Columbia, South Carolina to Wichita, Kansas

We’re off for a late week road trip, one that will allow us to cover much of the southern US in the hottest time of the year. That’s what everyone wants, right? That’s fun? It will be a 1173 mile journey at a pace of about 65mph. Our first day will be shorter than the second, and cover 519.7 miles. For the love of God, the AC had better work.

DAY ONE (Thursday)
Columbia
The good news is that it will be dry in South Carolina. The bad news, of course, is that it will be rather warm. Furthermore, when we get to the Atlanta area, showers and thunderstorms will begin to crop up. A descending ridge will help trigger stronger thunderstorms at the southern periphery of the feature. While convection will be heaviest in Tennessee, we will also see more robust convection through northern Mississippi. That’s mostly because it will be during peak heating that we pass through the area. The day will end in hot, humid and stormy Glenfield, Mississippi, which is near New Albany.

DAY TWO (Friday)
There will be the slightest of chances for a stray thunderstorm for much of the morning, with no greater a chance than for the stretch between Forrest City and Little Rock in Arkansas. After that, however, a funny thing will happen. Despite a weak lee low developing in the southern Plains, the increasing afternoon heat will help stabilize the atmosphere. It’s going to be very warm when we arrive in Wichita, thanks in large part to the blistering July sun.

Aerial of the Downtown Skyline of Wichita, Kansas with the Arkansas River and the Lawrence-Dumont Stadium in the Foreground

Aerial of the Downtown Skyline of Wichita, Kansas with the Arkansas River and the Lawrence-Dumont Stadium in the Foreground

Frosty mornings

I mentioned a weak ripple ejected by the Rockies that was to mostly leave southern Kansas alone in my forecast for Wichita on New Years Day.It didn’t mean that it would totally be ineffectual for Wichita, however, as it helped steer some of the icy weather away from town for Monday morning. The cold air was present Sunday morning when temperatures plummeted to 6, but they were somewhat more toleragle on Monday, when it only dropped to 20. The Weather Channel and Weatherbug had top forecast, getting their year off to a good start.
Actuals: Sunday – High 41, Low 6
Monday – High 43, Low 20

Grade: A

Wichita, Kansas

Welcome to 2011, friends! Here’s hoping for a year of good forecasts and one free of Chinese hackers.

At 453PM, CT, Wichita was reporting a temperature of 28 degrees with clear skies. High pressure has mercifully moved into the center of the country, giving Kansas a quiet start to the new year after a beginning that had been so active.
A weak ripple on the lee side of the Rockies was generating a few clouds over the high plains of Colorado and northwestern Kansas, but sunny skies are expected to hold serve in southern Kansas. This will also mean clear skies and cold nights, which will work well with the Arctic air in the area to keep things cool in Wichita.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 39, Low 9
Monday – Increasing clouds late, High 39, Low 16

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny High 41, Low 11
Monday – Sunshine High 41, Low 20

AW: Tomorrow – Bright sunshine High 36, low 8
Monday – Mostly sunny High 39, Low 16

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 40, Low 8
Monday – Sunny High 40, Low 18

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 41, Low 7
Monday – Sunny, High 41, Low 18

Wear your shades, I guess. According to Accuweather, the sunshine will be bright. Satellite shows the weak little wave northwest of Wichita, a cold front out east and not much else.

Warmer without the rain

As one could probably imagine, things warmed up considerably in Wichita when the remnants of Alex finally pushed off on Tuesday. The Weather Channel’s gamble didn’t pay off, and temperatures yesterday pushed 90. This eventually gave Accuweather the top spot for the day, proving that they didn’t take the 4th of July off. Poor saps.
Actuals: Monday – .41inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 82, Low 68
Tuesday – High 89, Low 67

Grade: C

Wichita, Kansas

The winner of the 4th of July lottery is Wichita. Everyone in Wichita, stop enjoying the holiday and come read about the weather! Of course, the way thins look, you may be inside already.

At 1207PM, CT, Wichita was reporting heavy rain and a temperature of 75 degrees. Most of their holiday looks to be a washout, as the remnants of Hurricane Alex are continuing to wring themselves out over the central Plains. A cold front associated with low pressure in the Canada was aiding in the continuing onslaught, but will eventually help things dry off. Presently, the last heavy round of rain was just entering Wichita, though most of the activity was training south to north, and the back side is still around Pratt, about 75 miles west. There was a wind shift between Great Bend and Russell that was probably the cold front.
Behind the elongated boundary and the remnants of Alex, an upper level trough and a surface short wave will begin to translate into Kansas. The short wave will induce some surface circulation and trigger even more wet weather Monday. The surface wave will deteriorate by the time it reaches Wichita, and the moisture will be left to wait for the strong upper trough to swing through the region and clear out the unsettled weather, and that won’t happen until late on Tuesday. It will be clearer, however, on Tuesday, so expect a warming trend.
Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms, High 83, Low 72
Tuesday – Sunnier, but still some stormy weather in the area, especially in the AM, High 89, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms. High 77, Low 71
Tuesday – A few thunderstorms possible.High 80, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – A couple of showers and a thunderstorm around, some can be heavy late; mostly cloudy High 83, Low 72
Tuesday – Times of clouds and sun with a thunderstorm; humid High 87, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy High 85, Low 73
Tuesday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy High 88, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow -Showers likely and scattered thunderstorms High 85, Low 73
Tuesday – Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. High 88, Low 72

The Weather Channel is going perplexingly chilly. They must be looking for a lot of rain. Speaking of a lot of rain