The third forecast of the year was the first that was inclement. Scranton was expecting yet another round of wet weather as a big complicated area of low pressure tried to spin from the Great Lakes through the Mid Atlantic and New England. A redeveloped slug of moisture made for a wet day on Tuesday, but cold air brought a few flurries on Wednesday. There were a few precipitation issues from some outlets, but it ultimately came down to temperatures, where the National Weather Service handled the turbulent conditions best. Actuals: Tuesday – .24″ of rain, High 41, Low 29 Wednesday – Snow reported, not measured, High 39, Low 27
Let’s see about the weather in northeastern Pennsylvania tonight. It’s been warm and wet for the last several weeks. Will it continue?
At 1254AM, ET, Scranton was reporting a temperature of 29 degrees with overcast skies. Flurries were falling as nearby as Allentown, but the swath of heavy snow is pressing to the east and out of eastern Pennsylvania. A vast area of low pressure lies over the southern part of Hudson Bay, and the heavy snow represents the leading edge of the disturbance. The upper level trough parenting this low will generate an undercutting surface low over the Great Lakes throughout the day Tuesday. This refocused feature will accelerate and swing through New England on Wednesday, but Tuesday does appear as though it will be filled with light snow and blustery winds. Tomorrow – Rain snow mix, increasingly windy, High 43, Low 26 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy, with an early mix, with temperatures dropping through the day, High 37, Low 29
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a rain shower. High 45, Low 29 Wednesday – Cloudy skies. Windy during the morning (morning rain). High 42, Low 30
AW: Tomorrow – Milder; considerable cloudiness, then times of clouds and sun, a shower in the area late in the day High 46, Low 31 Wednesday – Cloudy, windy; a few stray afternoon snowflakes High 42, Low 29
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers after 3pm. Mostly cloudy, High 45, Low 28 Wednesday – A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, High 39, Low 26
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers and freezing rain in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 42, Low 26 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers, High 41, Low 30
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, High 46, Low 30 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 41, Low 35
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 46, Low 28 Wednesday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 44, Low 29
I’m not sure we’re going to see temperatures spike quite as warm as many outlets seem to think on Tuesday. Too many clouds, too much terrain. I’m always wrong in the mountains. Here is a look at the radar, with a whole lot of rain headed for the coast.
There was a sharp upper level trough over the eastern Great Lakes over the weekend. If you know anything about the Eastern Great Lakes, then you know that’s a good recipe for some flurries. There were flurries, as I will discuss in the next post, but in Scranton, it took considerably longer for the moisture to reach town. By the time it did, precipitation only fell as light rain, not at all as snow. With a bit of a warm up this week, it looks like Scranton is spared for a another week or so. Accuweather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Saturday – High 49, Low 32
Sunday – Trace of rain, High 46, Low 27
Well, good morning! I’m sure you’re checking this forecast after you wake up, so the “tomorrow” in the forecast is actually going to be your today. Does that make sense? I’m sure. Great. Let’s do this.
At 254AM, ET, Scranton was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with overcast skies and a light westerly breeze. A sharp upper level trough was diving into the area, and just to the north of the Wyoming Valley, skies were clearing and temperatures looked to drop even cooler than they are seeing in Scranton. Parts of western New York were at Freezing, and there was snow in the forecast for parts of western Pennsylvania.
Both the GFS and NAM are showing strong indications of a continued threat for lake effect snow, though the forcing doesn’t look strong enough for those flurries to reach as far east as Scranton. The trough is going to work to lift towards the northeast under pressure of a strong surface ridge in the Plains, but the cold trough is going to remain parked over Scranton through the weekend. The only redeeming grace will be Scranton’s position downwind of the Lakes, which will keep temperatures from falling of as much over night.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 47, Low 33
Sunday – Cloudy, High 41, Low 30
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 48, Low 33
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, High 47, Low 29
AW: Tomorrow – More clouds than sun, breezy and colder High 49, Low 34
Sunday – Rather cloudy, breezy and chilly with a rain or snow shower in spots High 46, Low 29
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 48, Low 34
Sunday – A slight chance of rain and snow showers between 11am and noon, then a slight chance of rain showers after noon. Partly sunny, High 45, Low 29
WB: Tomorrow – Partly Sunny, High 47, Low 33
Sunday – Partly sunny, High 45, Low 29
WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 46, Low 34
Sunday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 45, Low 30
FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 47, Low 33
Sunday – Mostly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 44, Low 27
There we have it. The first forecast for snow this year comes from the NWS for October 18th. We’ll have to see if it materializes. For now, here is a look at the cloud cover in the mid-Atlantic.
Scranton and most of the eastern US has endured a very hot summer, which made it hard to believe that the temperatures would relent late in the week. A thick layer of unending overcast and a lot of rain on Friday did the trick. Forget 90, Scranton didn’t even hit 70! The Weather Channel had the top forecast for what was a rather unpleasant forecast.
Actuals: Thursday- .02 inches of rain, High 83, Low 68
Friday – .89 inches of rain, High 69, Low 62
Off to northeastern Pennsylvania, where as of about right now, the heat is breaking. So that’s good news.
At 452PM, ET, Scranton was reporting thunderstorms and a temperature of 73 degrees. The initial line of thunderstorms associated with a push of more tolerable air is sitting mostly to the southeast of Scranton, while some additional thunderstorm activity is being seen to the west around Williamsport. The trough involved with the generation of these storms isn’t carrying much cold air, but it is providing a little bit of destabilization.
The instability will persist through the mid Atlantic and southern New England for a couple of days. The lack of a cap over the still hot and humid air will lead to an active radar for the rest of the work week. The elevation in the area will aid in the more localized development of thunderstorms. It won’t be a pair of days with all day thunderstorms, as the heat will be a vital component to their genesis. That said, it certainly will not be nearly as warm in Pennsylvania. There is some model indication for more persistent rain on Friday thanks to a surface trough, but I’m not quite buying it.
Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, High 88, Low 65
Friday – Occasional thunderstorms and rain, High 76, Low 65
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 87, Low 67
Friday – Scattered T-Storms High 70, Low 64
AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm in the area High 86, Low 66
Friday – Cooler with rain at times High 73, Low 64
NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers after 8am. Partly sunny High 87, Low 66
Friday – A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 71, Low 63
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers. High 86, Low 66
Friday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. High 78, Low 58
Weatherbug agrees with me! The forecast is for an area of low pressure at the surface with little upper level support. I just don’t for see it causing the low level moisture needed to keep temperatures down that far on Friday. Here is the present rainy radar.
We looked in at the typically snowy Scranton with our forecast on Sunday. As with the rest of the eastern two thirds of the country, they weren’t very winter like. Temperatures soared into the 40s on Tuesday, and it was to warm forecasters’s benefit. With clouds, temperatures were unable to cool off Tuesday morning, which ended up giving The Weather Channel the win.
Actuals: Monday – High 38, Low 23
Tuesday – .07 inches of liquid in snow (likely 1/2-1″ of snow), High 43, Low 30
Eastern Pennsylvania today, and into the land of lake effect snows.
At 1154PM, ET, Scranton was reporting a temperature of 24 with overcast skies. Westerly flow underneath a ridge of high pressure was bringing clouds to most of the central Appalachians, though at this point, the snowfall associated with this moist flow was confined west of Scranton by several miles.
The jet is in a more typically southern location for this time of year, and a curl back to the north along the East Coast, also standard for this time of year, will direct any impulse towards Scranton. An extremely weak, collapsing system is expected to arrive in town on Tuesday evening. There is a strong likelihood that the Scranton area will see some snow, but not anything too heavy.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 36, Low 20
Tuesday – Cloudy, with some snow showers late. Maybe an inch possible, High 38, Low 23
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 36, Low 21
Tuesday – Variably cloudy with snow showers High 38, Low 26
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and not as cold High 36, Low 18
Tuesday – Cloudy with a bit of snow and rain at times in the afternoon High 42, Low 24
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 37, Low 19
Tuesday – A chance of snow, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, High 37, Low 22
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 34, Low 18
Tuesday – Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. High 38, Low 22
Pretty similar across the board, except Accuweather, who is warmer than all the rest. They are headquartered fairly close to Scranton. Do they know something? Satellite is fairly tame looking, until you note the dull gray tones are the low clouds covering the region.