Tag Archives: Santa Fe

Following a hunch

Most forecast guidance hinted at a somewhat cool couple of days in Santa Fe, but there was a rogue, short range model (and a whole lot of sunshine) that hinted on things being a bit warmer than what the majority of models. Victoria-Weather, therefore, checked in with the warmest forecast of all, and we reaped the benefits. Temperatures ended up spiking all the way into the low 70s on Tuesday, thanks to whole lot of sun and an emerging area of low pressure in the Pacific northwest. That huge jump in temperatures, from forecasts in the low 60s meant forecasts weren’t very good, but we’ll take it!
Actuals: Monday – High 63, Low 30
Tuesday – High 71, Low 35

Grade: C-D

Santa Fe, New Mexico

Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 34
Monday – Sunny, High 64, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow –  Sunny Skies High 58, Low 35
Monday – A mainly sunny sky. High 60, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Sunshine and patchy clouds High 59. Low 32
Monday – Mostly sunny High 61, Low 32

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 32
Monday – Sunny, High 61, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 56, Low 31
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 32

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 32
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 59, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 54, Low 32
Monday – Clear throughout the day. High 62, Low 33

I’m going a little north of the models in Santa Fe. I believe in the sun!

 

Santa Fe, New Mexico to Longview, Texas

Texas is a monstrous state. That’s why a trip just from the next state over will take us a day and a half to complete. It’s a 767 mile journey from Santa Fe to Longview, and we will cover it at a pace of 63.9mph, which means the first day of travel will net us 511 miles of the travel. There will be storms in the southern Plains tomorrow, will we run into any on our drive?

DAY ONE (Saturday)
Santa Fe
Low pressure initially generated by the lee of the Rockies, and then enhanced by the upper level wave emerging into the Plains will cycle moisture back into the Rockes, where it will fall as rain, primarily in the higher terrain. There may be a splash of rain as we depart Santa Fe and head south towards I-40, but when we turn east, we will be in the clear for a while. We’ll catch up with the back end of the system very near to the end of the day, but post frontally, we’ll only see some rain, rather than the nasty severe storms they will be seeing around our destination. The day will conclude in Henrietta, Texas, and we’ll only be in the rain between about Electra and Henrietta.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Hey, Sunday will be pretty nice! We’re going to drive through the Metroplex and continue on to Longview in a post-frontal environment, with sunny skies and incresingly hot conditions. I hope your AC is working, or that you enjoy driving with the windows down. MAybe there is a pool in Longview, because it will be in the upper 80s when we check in.
Longview TX

Clear confusion

The sun was able to peek through the clouds often in Santa Fe over the last couple of days, both at night and in the morning, which led to temperatures skying high above forecast highs and drop below forecast lows. Not everyone had rain in the forecast, but everyone expected enough clouds to prevent temperature fluctuations as wild as Santa Fe enjoyed. The thing is, though, it DID rain. Both Sunday and Monday. The rain storms were simply discrete enough to allow for temperatures to bounce around like they did. In the end, it was Accuweather claiming their third victory in a row, thanks to Victoria-Weather calling for a dry day yesterday. Otherwise, V-W had the top temperature forecast. People notice rain before they notice 2 degrees difference in temperature though, so kudos to Accuweather.
Actuals: Sunday – Rain and thunderstorms reported, not measured. High 70, Low 39
Monday – Rain reported, not measured, High 73, Low 42

Grade: C

Santa Fe, New Mexico

After spending a lot of time talking about hurricanes and the tropics, we’re going to head on down to the Land of Enchantment, where something needs to go seriously awry to get a hurricane.

At 953AM, ET Santa Fe was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 56 degrees. Clouds were fairly pervasive across the region, as there was a very week upper level wave leading to a well defined circulation over northeastern New Mexico. It won’t amount to much more than clouds across the state today, and a fairly impressive looking satellite image.
The upper level trough, as well as some lee troughing at the surface will remain persistent, however, and that low pressure will tap into a disturbance developing over the Bay of Campeche. Moisture will spill northward through the day and into tomorrow. There won’t be any synoptic organization in the New Mexico area, rather some showers in the mountains around Santa Fe. Tomorrow looks like a better potential for showers, but it looks fairly overcast on Monday as well.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, chance of some showers, High 69, Low 44
Monday – Overcast, High 70, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 66, Low 45
Monday – Mostly Sunny High 67, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – A blend of sun and clouds with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 69, Low 45
Monday – Partial sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 70, Low 43

NWS: Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 66, low 43
Monday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 66, Low 44

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. High 65, Low 48
Monday – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 65, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 66, Low 45
Monday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 66, Low 45

The threat for rain is low enough, as you can see, that the Weather Channel didn’t even include it in their forecast. Also, most outlets are going way below guidance, which is interesting to me.
Santa Fe

A little light rain

Santa Fe has been just southwest of a summertime area of low pressure that has developed in the lee of the Colorado Rockies. This mostly meant a bit of light rain in Santa Fe on Wednesday afternoon (and some stronger weather to the east). Temperatures were warm overnight, which upended some forecasts, and clouds on Wednesday capped temperatures in the upper 70s, but the sun broke out on Thursday, allowing for a warmer day. The Weather Service and Weatherbug had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – Rain reported but not measured, High 79, Low 55
Thursday – High 84, Low 46

Grade: C

Santa Fe, New Mexico to Bridgeport, Connecticut

Here we go, off on a 4 day trek through the heart of the country, stretching from Nexico to New England. It’s 2075 miles between the two cities, and we will average a pace of 63.9mph for our drive. That means 511 miles a day as we march northeastward. For a cross country trip, that’s not very much. More time to enjoy the scenery, I guess.

DAY ONE
Santa Fe
There is an area of low pressure that has developed over west Texas and is expected to touch off an active day over Oklahoma and the Dallas area both today and tomorrow. When we hit the road, strong southwest winds ay mean some blowing dust and sand in New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Clouds will begin to invade the horizon in Oklahoma, and freshly fallen rain will allay the threat for dust as we approach El Reno, which is west of Oklahoma City and our destination for Thursday night.

DAY TWO
Expect some lingering clouds across the remainder of Oklahoma as we make our way through the Sooner state, but the leading trough associated with this area of low pressure will lie over western Missouri. Not long after we cross into Missouri, however, we will see the threat for rain and even an isolated thunderstorm. In fact, the entire drive in Missouri will be marked by scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms. Severe weather even, isn’t entirely out of the question, but it would be a narrow window between Springfield and Fort Leonard Wood where we would see that. Our day will end in the west metro of St. Louis, near Valley Park.

DAY THREE
The low we have been following through this point will become more associated with a system over the northern US and operate more accurately as a wave along a warm front. There won’t be much organization nor advancement on Saturday so scattered showers will lie in wait for us across central Indiana and Ohio. The trip through southern Illinois will be mostly cloudy but it should be dry until about Danville, when there are no guarantees. Even for the rest of the day, rain will be intermittent and fall mostly within scattered showers, rather than thunderstorms, and there will be long stretchs that the windows an be rolled down. Our day will end in Ashland, Ohio, which is northeast of Mansfield.

DAY FOUR
We will be north of the remnant area of low pressure which will be spinning over the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Northeasterly flow will mean shower activity will continue to be imported into the Mid Atlantic. I’m not entirely sold on the threat for rain west of the Appalachians, but there will be clouds almost the entire way. The threat for rain will increase slightly in far eastern Pennsylvania, but the real issue will be some continued clouds. The real rain will be well south of Bridgeport.
Bridgeport

Sana Fe, New Mexico

Today’s forecast takes us to the capital city of the Land of Enchantment. Please enjoy.

At 1053AM, MT, Santa Fe was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with clear skies. A dew point that was only 15 suggests that this afternoon will get fairly toasty. Warm weather and a weak upper level trough moving through northern Mexico into west Texas will be just enough to touch off a few thunderstorms across the mountains of northern and western New Mexico.
As the weak upper level trough moves into west Texas the surface low will begin to take shape. Dry air will cycle into New Mexico rather quickly aloft (it’s already been there at the surface) and ensure that the next two days will be clear and quite enjoyable.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 50
Thursday – Partly cloudy, High 83, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Isolated T-Storms High 77 Low 47
Thursday – Sunny High 78, Low 46

AW: Tomorrow – Sunny to partly cloudy High 83 Low 51
Thursday – Plenty of sunshine High 83, Low 49

NWS: Tomorrow – Isolated showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Mostly sunny, High 80, Low 52
Thursday – Sunny High 80, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated sprinkles in the morning…then isolated thunderstorms with little or no rain in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon High 80, Low 52
Thursday – Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 51

You can see some of the clouds over the mountains in New Mexico and Colorado. These will probably hold some thunderstorms this afternoon.
Santa Fe

Nothing good ever comes out of New Mexico

I can’t remember the last time someone nailed a forecast in new Mexico. The best forecasts there (in Santa Fe) this go around were from Accuweather and the Weather Service who were off by 7 degrees at least once in their forecast. Temperatures were warmer than expected, and an isolated thunderstorm on Monday through Victoria Weather off the scent. Why must you be so difficult, New Mexico?
Actuals: Monday – .03 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 84, Low 59
Tuesday – High 87, Low 53

Grade: D

Santa Fe, New Mexico

Off to New Mexico, the Land of Enchantment.

At 1153AM, PT, Santa Fe was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies. The daily monsoon hasn’t yet become active, and a trough over southern New Mexico may slow down the convection, however a strong, developing low over the northern Rockies will probably induce enough southerly flow to overcome the trough’s influence.
The low will shift off to the northeast into Ontario over the forecast period, though a trough will continue to run ahead of the primary cold front in the Upper Midwest. It will act to prevent the thunderstorm activity from filtering out of southern New Mexico, keeping Santa Fe pleasant and dry for the beginning of the week.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 79, Low 54
Tuesday – Sunny, High 82, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible High 77, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around; breezy High 80, Low 52
Tuesday – Partly sunny with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 83, Low 52

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 78, Low 52
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with a chance of showers and thudnerstorms, High 66, Low 51
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 69, Low 51

Uh oh, some problems with Weatherbug’s numerical output. Satellite? Quiet