Tag Archives: Saint Cloud

Before the heatwave

It got very hot, and then very stormy in central Minnesota over the weekend, but before that happened it was extremely pleasant. This led to some accurate forecasts for Saint Cloud. Not only that, but we all felt good about having excellent forecasts. For what it’s worth, the uncomfortable heat wave and strong thunderstorms in the weekend that followed were also well anticipated, though that was outside of the scope of our forecast, and was really just a bummer after how nice the week was. Accuweather drilled down the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 73, Low 60
Wednesday – High 78, Low 58

Grade: B – C

Nope, still not spring.

Saint Cloud set a record for the coldest temperature ever recorded on April 20th this year, when the morning low was only 16. On Sunday, there was a wintry mix. Again, April 21st. The good news, at least, was that they were well served by good forecasts, the best belonged to The Weather Channel.
Actuals: Saturday, High 37, Low 16
Sunday – .16 inches of precipitation, trace of snow, High 44, Low 30

Grade: A

Saint Cloud, Minnesota

Saint Cloud in the last couple of days, has seen quite a bit of snow. I know Minnesota has a reputation as a cold wintry place, but this is ridiculous. It’s officially the snowiest April in Saint Cloud history!

At 453PM, CT, Saint Cloud was reporting a temperature of 35 degrees with a stout northwesterly flow behind a deep area of low pressure that is now moving through eastern Canada. The parent low was still centered over Lake Superior, so there was a chance that it could produce a few clouds in the area, but a pocket of cold high pressure has begun moving into the north central portion of the United States.
A broad mean trough will remain across the center of the country, bringing about the chilly air. A ripple of a trough will ride the back edge of the mean trough which is generating a surface disturbance over the Rockies. As the wave moves east, a surface low will develop in the Canadian Prairies. The surface low will draw moisture north into Minnesota along with slightly warmer temperatures. This will mean another round of wet weather starting tomorrow evening in Saint Cloud and likely lasting through most of the day on Sunday. Fortunately, temperatures are going to be warmer, so most of the activity will come as rain, but a little bit of snow will come overnight tomorrow once again.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds with rain and a bit of snow late, High 41, Low 20
Sunday – Scattered showers, snow early changing to rain. High 48, Low 31

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 39, Low 18
Sunday – Rain / Snow High 44, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Sun followed by some clouds High 38, Low 18
Sunday – Considerable cloudiness; a bit of morning snow followed by periods of rain in the afternoon High 43, Low 32

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (rain after 10pm) High 36, Low 14
Sunday – Snow likely before 10am, then rain likely. Cloudy High 46, Low 30

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning…then partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. High 36, Low 15
Sunday – Cloudy…rain…possibly mixed with snow in the morning…then rain likely in the afternoon. No snow accumulation. High 45, low 31

NWS/WB are calling for awfully chilly temperatures overnight tonight. But hey… marginally warmer this weekend. Here is the satellite, showing a bit of clearing for the next 18-24 hours.
SAint Cloud

Clipped

I try not to sound to boastful, but in this instance, we were so much more correct than our competition. The forecast for Saint Cloud was for a weak clipper to roll through the area on Wednesday, but I noted a trend for a stronger system, so I asserted that the storm could produce 1-3″ of snow in town, whereas anyone who listed amounts (not included in the forecast, since I don’t verify them) generally called for less than an inch. Not only that, with the stronger system, I anticipated a more aggressive onslaught of cold air Thursday night. The result? 3.5″ of snow Wednesday night (a trace more after midnight Thursday) and a midnight low of 7 on Thursday evening. I wasn’t perfect, but we were the only ones that had the right idea.
Actuals: Wednesday – 3.5.” of snow, High 35, Low 15
Thursday – .1″ of snow, High 32, Low 7

Grade: B

Yakima, Washington to Saint Cloud, Minnesota

We are reversing yesterday’s trip and headed from Washington to the upper Midwest. The trip will have a more northerly route as one of the terminuses is further to the north. It will also be shorter, stretching not quite three days and covering 1516 miles. A large swath of the trip will be through Montana and North Dakota, which means we will average 69.7mph, which in road trip terms is lightspeed. At that pace, we will be done with the first two days after 557 miles. Holy smokes.

DAY ONE
Yakima
With an upper level wave riding down the Rockies, and the Pacific Ocean just right next to Washington, there will be an ample supply of disturbed weather on our first day of driving. Sure, the Yakima Valley will be fine, but by Spokane, clouds will be filling in and as we reach the border with Idaho, snow will pick up. Heavier snow will continue to build as we reach the higher elevations of western Montana. It will be quite snowy in Missoula and Butte as we drive through. Fortunately, though, the heaviest snow will develop after we have passed through those areas. We will end the day at Lewis and Clark Caverns State Park outside of Bozeman.

DAY TWO
With the remaining areas of clouds in the northern Rockies and a clipper moving through the Upper Midwest, our route will be wedged between snowy little bursts. From the State Park to about Billings we should actually be mostly OK, but when we head towards the northeast, clouds and a few flurries will pick up. When we cross the border into North Dakota, more persistent flurries will be possible. It will be snow of the light, fluffy variety, so rather than concern with accumulation or slippery roads, the real problem will be drifting and some brief issues with visibility. There won’t be anything to see anyway. We will stop in Almont before we reach Saint Cloud.

DAY THREE
Behind those flurries, we can expect another push of cold air. It’s not the arctic blasts that we saw earlier this winter, but it’s going to be awfully chilly in North Dakota, and even in northern and central Minnesota. It will be clear and sunny, and freshly coated in white, but it’s going to be a bit nippy.
Saint Cloud

Saint Cloud, Minnesota

This must be killing Anthony. Another forecast in Saint Cloud, home of his alma mater, and I am scheduled for it.

At 853AM, CT, Saint Cloud was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 17 degrees. The dangling inverted trough associated with the snow storm that swept through the area was now producing overcast that seemed parked over Wisconsin, but breaks in the clouds were being seen in central Minnesota.
A wave moving out of Canada appears progressively stronger from model run to model run. It will only manifest as a clipper descending from Saskatchewan into Minnesota, and rather than the trace of snow initially expected, Saint Cloud may end up seeing 1-3″ starting tomorrow evening into Thursday morning. It will clear quickly and sun may be shining before nightfall Thursday.
Tomorrow – Increasingly cloudy with some flurries late, High 36, Low 16
Thursday – Snow through the morning, then clear and cooling rapidly, High 26, Low 8

TWC: Tomorrow – PM Snow Showers Hgh 34, Low 14
Thursday – Few Snow Showers High 30, Low 24

AW: Tomorrow – Some sun, then increasing clouds with a snow shower in the afternoon High 33, Low 17
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and breezy with a snow shower High 26, Low 13

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of snow after noon. Mostly cloudy High 32, Low 15
Thursday – Scattered flurries. Mostly cloudy High 27, Low 12

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning…then mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow in the afternoon. High 32, Low 15
Thursday – Mostly cloudy. Scattered flurries. High 26, Low 22

Weatherbug/The Weather Channel are going to be hurt severely by their lack of hourly forecasting through the period. In fact, Weatherbug didn’t even make it to midnight on Friday. Clouds are breaking apart in Minnesota and showing some banding that usually indicates strong flow aloft. Not really this time.
SAint Cloud

Arcitic insurgence delayed

We were looking at a wave of cold air moving into Saint Cloud over the past couple of days, but lingering clouds delayed that wintry blast. In fact, through midnight yesterday, temperatures didn’t even get below 0. This was good news for the outlets that didn’t have their full 48 hour forecasts represented. Congratulations, Weather Channel, for the flaw on your site. There was a little bit of snow on each Tuesday and Wednesday to keep things fresh looking.
Actuals: Tuesday – .10 inches of snow, High 34, Low 25
Wednesday – Trace of Snow, High 25, Low 5

Grade: C

Lansing, Michigan to Saint Cloud, Minnesota

I’m surprised to say that our trip today will take us a day and a half, by exacting Road Trip Standards. It’s 695 miles and takes us right through Chicago, which is a problem. Our speed will be 61mph, so that first and only full day will be over after 488 arduous miles. A storm’s a brewin’ so let’s get out on the road.

DAY ONE
Lansing
It’s going to be rainy from the outset, unfortunately. Heavy rain is a real possibility as we head south from Lansing towards Indiana. By the time we reach Kalamazoo, the precipitation will be a little bit lighter, but the threat will persist. A strong line of thunderstorms is going to be developing over the Mississippi Valley, and as we pass through Chicago, the activity will be between I-39 and the Iowa border. We should sneak into Wisconsin contending only with rain and dreary skies, but around Rockford there might be a distant rumble of thunder. The rain day will come to an end past Janesville… because will see snow start to mix in with the rain. There may be some ice between the Illinois border and Janesville, so be aware of that. The driving will end in Black River Falls, Wisconsin, after a couple of snowy hours.
DAY TWO
There may be another round of snow in Black River Falls, some of it which could be fairly intense. The snow will continue through Eau Claire and begin to taper off shortly after we turn west through Menomonie. There will be a little bit of a break through the Twin Cities, but then we will encounter a vigorous north wind as we head towards St. Cloud. Some of this wind may carry with it a few more flurries. This drive is going to be a real bear, so you had better enjoy Saint Cloud.
Saint Cloud

Saint Cloud, Minnesota

Anthony surely is disappointed that he doesn’t get to put together the forecast for the city he went to school in.

At 1053AM, CT, Saint Cloud was reporting a temperature of 30 degrees with a low overcast and fog. The pattern for most of the center of the country was a complicated mess. A remnant surface trough was moving through the Great Lakes and was beginning to manifest itself as a broad warm front. Over Colorado, a deep area of low pressure was developing thanks to a combination of lee troughing and a sharp upper level trough.
As the upper level trough moves into the Plains, the surface trough will elongate, stretching north. The first round of cold air drawn in will push a line of precipitation through St. Cloud tomorrow morning. A couple inches of snow, followed by cooling temperatures and very cloudy conditions will follow. The trough will slow down as the surface pressure will redevelop over the Mid-Mississippi Valley and begin to move northward. This will ensure a persistent northerly flow overriding a fresh snow pack. Expect clouds and a chance for some flurries on Wednesday, after a quicker burst tomorrow morning.
Tomorrow – Early snow, then overcast, High 35, Low 16
Wednesday – Much colder with wind and snow. High 16, Low -8

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Light Wintry Mix High 30, Low 21
Wednesday – Flurries / Wind High 21, Low 7

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with a bit of snow High 33, Low 20
Wednesday – Much Colder with flurries, High 20, Low -7

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of snow before noon. Cloudy High 31, Low 20
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy (flurries shortly after midnight) High 20, Low -2

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow in the morning. High 30, Low 10
Wednesday – Much colder. Mostly cloudy High 20, Low 10

Yep, two non-standard days in a row as temperatures plummet with north winds and a fresh snow pack. This means The Weather Channel and Weatherbug are in trouble for this forecast. Satellite shows just a bunch of low clouds and crap over the Great Lakes.
SAint Cloud

Today in fantastically awful forecasting

Never mind the fact that when we did the forecast for St. Cloud, the temperature was clearly not going to dive, thanks to a thick blanket of clouds that were parked over Minnesota. Those clouds didn’t inch out of town really at all over the next two days, either, which meant that temperatures never met the forecast highs on Monday and most struggled with low temperature forecasts. The clouds were also responsible for some light flurries each of the last two days that nobody accounted for. Nothing really worked out for anyone. The top forecaster was the Weather Service.
Actuals: Sunday – Trace of snow, High 18, Low 8
Monday – Trace of snow, High 17, Low 2

Grade: C