Tag Archives: Rochester

Keeping clear

Rochester looked like it was in for some wet weather over the last two days, and they were. The good news, however, was that the rain that was in the forecast ended up largely passing to the south. The thick overcast that was supposed to severely suppress temperatures stayed away (though temperatures were cooler yesterday than on Monday) and none of the snow that had been a possibility materialized on the shore of Lake Ontario. Looking at the verification, I would say that the weather wasn’t exactly pleasant, but at least it was much better than expected. The top forecast belonged to Accuweather, but it was a close race all the way around.
Actuals: Monday – Trace of rain, High 54, Low 33
Tuesday – High 46, Low 34

Grade: C

Houston, Texas to Rochester, New York

Houston is the 4t largest city in the country, but Dallas seems to get all the attention. Rochester can relate, as they are probably about 4th fiddle in the Empire State. The drive will take 3 days and cover 1555 miles, equating to a pace of 63.9mph. The days will be fairly even, at about 511 miles a day, though the home stretch will take a little longer.

DAY ONE (Monday)
The largest system headed into net week will only be in the northern Rockies as we depart Houston, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be issues on our drive to start day one. A jet stream moving through the Ohio Valley provides a good convergence point and an elongated warm front. Of equal impact is a low level wave moving along that boundary. All of this will result in a turbid southerly flow off the Gulf, transporting moisture through the Lower Mississippi Valley towards the features well to the north. This will certainly turn into clouds and low fog, but from Lufkin northeast through Texarkana and Little Rock, it will lead to the threat for some light rain. We won’t be out of the rain by the time we hit Wheatley, Arkansas, either, but we will never really catch up to the heaviest action, which will be well to our east.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
The system will take considerable time to get organized, which means there won’t be much change in the weather as we get going in eastern Arkansas. The scattered showers will be with us throughout Tennessee, but by about Bowling Green, Kentucky, we will hit some heavier rains, and perhaps even a thunderstorm as we encounter the embedded wave. The heavy rain will begin to pulse down as we turn east from Louisville, but moderate rains will follow us to Glencoe, Kentucky, on the banks of the Ohio River, closer to Cincinnati that Louisville. Bear in mind, Kentucky has seen a lot of rain recently, and there is a very high chance for flash flooding through the state, particularly the corridors we are travelling along.

DAY THREE (Wedneday)
Showers are just going to keep on keeping on as we head east. By Wednesday, though, there will be a change in teh upper atmosphere, and the threat for severe storms will be on the increase. That said, those storms will be to our southwest. Instead, we get more rain, with an increase in intensity as we cross into Pennsylvania around Erie. That heavy rain stands to continue all the way to Rochester though, if I’m being honest, there is a chance some of that rain will actually be snow.

Rochester, New York

Happy Easter, we’re off to Western New York to check out the forecast.

At 654PM, ET, Rochester was reporting a temperature of 34 degrees with light snow. A weak area of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes strung a stationary front through western New York. A generally laminar jet was preventing the development of any strong systems, however the jet was an effective barrier to warm air, as was made apparent by the chilly temperatures and frozen precipitation.
The jet will be broad and have multiple parallel components, which will lead to a greatly distablized environment throughout the eastern Seaboard. A low level wave will move through the Ohio Valley and tap into that instability. Showers and storms will become evn more widespread on Tuesday, particularly south of western New York. Rochester will see a few showers on Monday, but on Tuesday, rain will be heavier and more persistent. Some flakes may mix in late in the day as temperatures cool aloft.
Tomorrow – Snow early, with rain arriving late. High 50, Low 31
Tuesday – Rain through the day, with a few flakes late. High 39, Low 53

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy, early snow, High 57, Low 32
Tuesday – Showers, High 41, Low 36

AW: Tomorrow – Milder with occasional rain and drizzle High 54, Low 36
Tuesday – A thick cloud cover and colder with showers High 43, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of rain and snow showers before 4pm, then rain showers likely. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, High 56, Low 33
Tuesday – Rain. High 37, Low 34

WB: Tomorrow – Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers in the morning…Then rain showers likely in the afternoon. Little or no additional accumulation. High 55, Low 32
Tuesday – Rain High 37, Low 34

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Scattered Showers High 55, Low 36
Tuesday – Cloudy with Chance of Light Rain High 37, Low 34

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 53, Low 34
Tuesday – Mixed precipitation in the morning and afternoon.High 40, Low 36

There will be quite a bit of shower activity SOUTH of Rochester, but the western New York town won’t miss out on the fun. Here is the local radar, showing that the rain, even right now, is just south of Rochester.

Precipitation dependent

Rochester was at the cusp of a pair of systems that snuck past the Upper Midwest. The first was a strong area of low pressure that moved through the Great Lakes, and grazed the Rochester area with a little bit of a rain/snow mix. Yesterday, a tendril of snowy weather nosed into central Minnesota, but also grazed southeastern Minnesota, bringing another trace of precipitation. Almost everyone had good temperature forecasts (everyone was off by 4 or 5 degrees) but there was a lot of variability in those precipitation forecasts. There was a handful of outlets that properly had at least 1 day of precipitation in the forecast, including Victoria-Weather, Accuweather and the National Weather Service, and that conglomerate had the top spot over Christmas.
Actuals: Wednesday – .01 inches or rain, trace of snow, High 33, Low 29
Thursday – Trace of snow, High 34, Low 27

Grade: C

Rochester, Minnesota to Ann Arbor, Michigan

Let’s quickly take a one day trek from southeastern Minnesota to southeastern Michigan. The drive is a a 587.8 mile journey, which we will cover in 9 1/2 hours on Christmas Day. I suspect there will be traffic everywhere, but nothing pparticularly dense anywhere. If you don’t want to do the math, the mph measure will be 62.6. Let’s get a move on. It’s a big day!

By the early afternoon, there will be a tendril of wet snow moving into central Minnesota on Christmas, but if we play our cards right, we’ll be in southern Minnesota by the time that happens. Skies will be partly cloudy as we make the trek through Chicago and northern Indiana, with some increasing clouds in lower Michigan, where precipitation will have been much more recent. They are expecting heavy rain in eastern Michigan, so don’t be surprised if there is some fog as we arrive in Ann Arbor. Merry Christmas, everyone!
Ann Arbor

Rochester, Minnesota

The big winner for the Christmas/Christmas Eve forecast this year is Rochester. What will it be like as they celebrate?

At 754PM, CT, Rochester was reporting a temperature of 33 degrees with overcast skies. Deep upper level troughing through the center of the country was producing a very rainy system that will recycle east of the region. At present, there is a broad upper level trough in the Great Lakes and a weak but developing wave over Mississippi at the base of the upper level trough. The rotation of the broad, weaker low is currently wrapping the moisture Rochester is seeing into the city, and will pull the weaker wave north, where it will tap into the existing instability and vorticity and only become stronger as it overtakes the original system.
For Rochester, this will only mean a continued period of northerly flow from a moist environment. A sloppy rain/snow mix will continue through the day tomorrow, with temperatures hovering in the mid 30s. The low will be chased out by a weak ridge moving into Minnesota on Christmas morning. That weak ridge will provide a little stability and a pleasant holiday for travelers.
Tomorrow – Overcast with drizzle a flakes. High 35, Low 29
Christmas – Overcast but dry, High 34, Low 24

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 33, Low 29
Christmas – Mostly cloudy High 37, Low 25

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and windy High 33, Low 29
Christmas – Some sunshine giving way to clouds (late snow) High 33, Low 23

NWS: Tomorrow – A slight chance of freezing drizzle before 7am. Cloudy High 34, Low 28
Christmas – Mostly cloudy, High 34, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. High 34, Low 29
Christmas – Mostly cloudy High 35, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy High 34, Low 27
Christmas – Mostly Cloudy, High 36, low 27

You can tell how low the clouds are, since the tops are mostly imperceptible on the satellite imagery.

Autumn begins to find its way in

It was a balmy 87 degrees on Tuesday afternoon in Rochester, but a cold front moved through in the morning hours Wednesday and changed the atmosphere fairly dramatically. Temperatures dropped by 10 degrees on Wednesday afternoon, and temperatures were still cooling off after nightfall. Victoria-Weather nearly aced this particular forecast, and comes away with a victory.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 87, Low 62
Wednesday – .02 inches of rain, High 78, Low 59

Grade: A

Albuquerque, New Mexico to Rochester, New York

This seems like a long trip, but at 3 1/2 days, it’s less than half of the monstrosities we’ve been posting lately. The mileage will be 1859 miles, and since we won’t be driving through the Canadian wilderness this time around, we can reach an average speed of 65.5mph, and the first three days will allow us to cover 524 miles a day. Put on your driving pants, and let’s go for a ride.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
There is a surface low and some seasonal monsoonal enhancement on the horizon tomorrow for central New Mexico early in the day and all of New Mexico by afternoon. We’ll leave Albuquerque with some thunderstorms looming in all directions, and likely have to contend with a few showers and storms in the high plains of New Mexico as well. The convective activity should stop around Truth and Consequences, and the drive into and through the Texas Panhandle will be just fine. The same can be said for the rest of the day’s travels through western Oklahoma to the western OKC suburb of Yukon. Boy, after the last couple of days, that’s ironic.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
The low that had been in New Mexico will lift north to the Nebraska Panhandle, and extend a warm front through Iowa and south towards the Ohio River. We will be driving in the warm sector of this storm, which may foster an isolated thunderstorm around Tulsa, though that doesn’t appear likely. The better threat for showers will be as we approach the lingering warm front around St. Louis. It should only be in the form of some lighter showers as opposed to heavy thunderstorms, as the forcing and trigger mechanisms won’t be great. Let’s call it a day in Cahokia, Illinois, just across the river of St. Louis.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
Driving through southern Illinois and much of Indiana looks like it will be overcast, and my even a bit drizzly as flow continues through an already moist environment towards a boundary attempting to slide through the western Great Lakes. After we pass through the Richmond, Indiana area and head into Ohio, however, things should clear out, and we’ll have smooth sailing to Medina, Ohio, which is just outside of Akron.

DAY FOUR (Friday)
High pressure is forecast to be parked over the mid-Atlantic by the time Friday rolls around, which will be great for the last 5 hour drive. It should be pretty warm too, if we want to go check out the beach at Lake Ontario.

Rochester, New York

We aren’t straying too far from yesterday’s forecast in Manchester, ┬ábut with the forecast extending an extra day to the future, will we see any big weather surprises?

At 1154AM, ET, Rochester was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. High pressure remains in place across the eastern Great Lakes, and aside from a band of clouds extending from Rochester towards Erie, Pennsylvania,  the region was very quiet.
The upper level ridge is in a strong position and angled beautifully so as to inhibit any significant advance of a boundary presently in the western Great Lakes. Rather than thunderstorms, when the surface moisture and impeded cold front makes its way into western New York, morning fog, clouds, and light rain will be possible until the heating of the day helps to burn that activity off by early afternoon.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 87, Low 62
Wednesday – Morning fog and clouds with a chance for light rain, High 76, low 59 (non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 87, Low 62
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy (night storms) High 74, Low 65

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasantly warm high 86, Low 63
Wednesday- A morning shower or thunderstorm around; otherwise, partly sunny and not as warm high 75, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny high 89, Low 62
wednesday – Partly sunny (early showers) High 76, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Very warm High 88, Low 63
Wednesday – Partly to mostly sunny (early rain_ High 76, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 90, Low 63
Wednesda – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 75, Low 64

Everyone has some shower activity in the forecast for early wednesday. The only thing that could throw a wrench in the works, I think is if that low level moisture just shows up as fog. Looking pretty good across western New york right now though!

On point

Rain has invaded the Upper Midwest, and it will shortly be followed by well below normal temperatures. It’s not like the weather was particularly warm the last couple of days. In Rochester, for example, the maximum temperature was only 81 between Thursday and Friday, which, while warm, is a degree off of the average high for this time of year. If there was any good news, it’s that these cooler temperatures were well forecast. Victoria-Weather hit on 3 of the forecast verification times exactly, and only missed the Thursday low by 1 degree. Sure, the rain held off a bit longer than we thought, but all in all, it was a very good forecast.
Actuals: Thursday- High 81, Low 58
Friday – .27 inches of rain, High 77, Low 62

Grade: A