Tag Archives: Philadelphia

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Away we go to the city of brotherly love. Summer has to be right around the corner eventually, right?

At 754PM, ET, Philadelphia was reporting a temperature of 45 degrees with clear skies. The most prominent feature is a weakly organized wave moving through the southeastern US, while there was a departing system taking its time leaving New England. In between, an area of high pressure centered over Ontario nosed a portion towards Delaware Bay.
There is a weak vorticity maximum rotating through Minnesota at the base of the ridge. This will be propelled eastwards towards southeastern PA, but will waste itself in the Appalachians. There will be a few high clouds that find their way into Philly, however, robbing another chance at even the slightest of warmups.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 37, low 26
Tuesday- Mostly cloudy, High 41, Low 26

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 43, low 27
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 47, Low 28

AW: Tomorrow – Cold with plenty of sunshine High 42, Low 27
Tuesday – Chilly with plenty of sunshine High 46, Low 26

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 40, Low 26
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 24

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 39, Low 24
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 43, Low 22

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 41, low 27
Tuesday – Partly cloudy, High 43, Low 25

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 37, Low 24
Tuesday – Mostly cloudy in the morning.High 42, Low 24

Model guidance is trending lower than most outlets. FIO is with me on a cooler forecast. I’m anticipating cooler temperatures because I’m also anticipating more clouds. The thing on the satellite that is most apparent is the activity south of the Mid-Atlantic, which is generally jut a rainmaker.

Lafayette, Indiana to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

We’re going to head from my collegiate homeland to the City of Brotherly Love on a day and a half excursion. The two towns are 706 miles apart, approximately, and we will cover that ground at a pace of about 63.6mph, which puts us at about 508.8 miles on Tuesday’s drive. There is ground to cover, so let’s be on our way.

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
lafayette
We will be at the back end of a surface area of low pressure easing through the Great Lakes at the beginning of our day Tuesday. Actually, with our pace and the pace of the surface trough, we will be in that same position pretty much throughout the day. The chance for rain will increase as we drive through Ohio, but mostly cloudy skies with spotty drizzle should be expected through Indiana and Ohio. It’s just that the frequency of that drizzle will pick up in eastern Ohio. The topography of Pennsylvania will mean much more rain on the western exposures of the Appalachians, right up until we reach Bedford in southern PA for our break in the action.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
We have just a little bit of driving to do on Wednesday across southeastern Pennsylvania. As long as we take our time with breakfast and wait until about 10 AM to hit the road on Wednesday morning, we should be just fine between Bedford and Philadelphia, with only a splash of rain here and there, like we will see on Tuesday. If we leave early, we might arrive in Philadelphia in the midst of a monsoon.
philadelphia

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Today, we are off to the city of Brotherly Love. Do you think the weather will also be lovely?

At 354PM, ET, Philadelphia was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 82 degrees. A weak area of vorticity spinning at the base of an upper level trough was rotating through the Great Lakes. Some mid level moisture was being drawn northwest through Philly, but at the moment, any rain associated with the precipitation was found well west of Delaware Bay.
As the surface system continues to organize this afternoon and overnight, an active boundary will tap into the moisture being drawn ashore, and some showers and storms will move into the area early tomorrow morning. The surface low is shifting more to the north than the east, which will cause the boundary to stall across eastern Pennsylvania. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow. Heavy rain is expected in the early morning on Wednesday as the boundary moves through town. The fortunate thing is that the overnight frontal passage will mitigate the severe threat, though an isolated hail storm is possible on Tuesday afternoon. Cooler temperatures with a lingering chance of drizzle are expected on Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Thunderstroms likely, High 79, Low 68
Wednesday – Heavy rain, with some clearing but still overcast, High 80, Low 68

TWC: Tomorrow – T-Storms High 76, Low 71
Wednesday – AM T-Storms High 84, Low 72

AW: Tomorrow – Rain, some heavy, and a t-storm; not as warm; watch for flooding on streets and poor drainage areas High 79, Low 70
Wednesday – A passing shower or two; cloudy in the morning,70 then times of sun and clouds in the afternoon High 83, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm High 80, Low 68
Wednesday – A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 3pm, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Numerous showers in the morning…then widespread showers with isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 77, Low 68
Wednesday – Cloudy with showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning…then partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 84, Low 69

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Scattered Light Showers High 81, Low 70
Wednesday – Mostly Cloudy with Heavy Showers High 82, Low 70

Looks like we are in a bit of shower activity for the Philadelphia area athis week. I could see them get a couple inches, if things break just right. Satellite looks intimidating, but all the rain is along and west of the Appalachians.
Philadelphia

Philadelphia, Round 2

We have our second verification of a forecast for Philadelphia in the span of 5 days. Last Saturday, WeatherNation won the forecast, and they weren’t far off the pace for this verification either. As expected, rain was very light and evaded Philadelphia for the most part, with only a trace of light rain yesterday. This came down to temperature forecasts, which were a bit too cool with the overnight lows this time around. There wasn’t much rain, but overcast skies ensured temperatures didn’t drop off as dramatically as expected. WeatherNation’s greatest competitor, The weather Channel had the top forecast in the second round in Philadelphia.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 73, Low 50
Wednesday – Trace of rain, High 66, Low 50

Grade: C

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

No, friends, this is not a mistake. We are back in Philly just a couple of days after we got done with their last verification. What kind of weather will they be seeing THIS week?

At 1154AM, ET, Philadelphia was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees with a brisk 20mph northwest wind. The tail of a cold front was wrapped around the base of a surface anticyclone, bringing some shower activity to West Virginia and southeastern Ohio, but the surface ridge is keeping things quite pleasant, despite the breeze flowing into the cold front.
Upper level ridging will continue to work to the northeast through the next 48 hours. The shower activity being seen today in the mid-Atlantic doesn’t appear to be as likely to be impactful for the region this evening, as it should be expended in the terrain of Appalachia, but some overcast and maybe some haze can’t be ruled out for tomorrow morning. With a low developing in the lee of the Rockies and the strong upper level ridge moving into the mid-Atlantic, an inordinately rangy warm front will move through in the afternoon into the evening on Wedensday. This has a much more likely scenario for rain in Philadelphia this week, but it will also eventually bring some warm temperatures.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy early, clearing late, High 70 Low 47
Wednesday – Increasing clouds late, giving way to some showers, High 67, Low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 70, Low 48
Wednesday – Few Showers High 69, Low 47

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 70, Low 45
Wednesday – Sun followed by increasing clouds (rain after 10) High 71, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 45
Wednesday – Mostly sunny (rain after 9), High 69, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. High 69, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. High 69, Low 45

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 70, Low 45
Wednesday – Isolated Showers High 70, Low 48

A look at the satellite shows the clouds southwest of Philly showing up quite nicely. Despite the specter of rain on both Tuesday and Wednesday, I think it will be a couple of very nice days.
Philadelphia

Philly with a taste of summer

Well, we didn’t see that coming. Temperatures skyrocketed in Philadelphia on Thursday afternoon ahead of a cold front looking to pass through town. The warm air cycling ahead of the boundary brought temperatures to 80 in some parts of the Philly metropolitan area, though the airport reported a high of 79, which was wtill around 5 degrees warmer than anyone anticipated. The other verifiying times didn’t really bring much intrigue, as most outlets didn’t go too far astray. Naturally, since we are between scoring periods, WeatherNation took down the victory, thanks to their temperature forecast skewing warmer.
Actuals: Thursday . 04 inches of rain, High 79, Low 62
Friday – High 69, Low 56

Grade: B

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to Rochester, Minnesota

We’re going to hit the road once more this week, as we depart for the center of the country and Rochester, Minnesota. It’s a two day trip through the Great Lakes, covering 1105.8 miles at a pace of about 63.7mph. Our first day will be the longer one, and will be over after about 509 miles. We should be on our way, then. Let’s get out of here!

DAY ONE
philadelphia
The strong area of low pressure that has caused so much pain across the southeast is now a bloated shell of itself across eastern Canada. It is going to continue to direct northwesterly flow, laden with some midlevel moisture, into Ohio and Pennsylvania. The portion of the trip from Philadelphia to Harrisburg should be dry, bt the chance for rain will be there essentially from the point we depart Harrisburg to the time we arrive in Elmore, Ohio, and complete our day. The best chance for rain will come between Youngstown and Elmore.

DAY TWO
The threat for rain will continue across our route on Saturday, but again, it will be very light rain. The heaviest rain will be from Toledo to about South Bend, but from there until we hit Rockford, Illinois, we will actually be dry. Of course, another wave rotating down the back side of the low will mean a chance for more rain in western Wisconsin and yes, even Rochester, though the chance for rain in Rochester will be very, very low.
Rochestermn

Wichita Falls, Texas to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

We are returning to the open road, as we set forth on a three day trip from north Texas to the City of Brotherly Love. It’s going to be almost exactly 3 days, actually, covering 1520 miles, but day three will be just a hair under a full day, and the average speed will be 64.8mph, which means the daily goal is 518.5 miles.

DAY ONE
We are going to head northeast through Oklahoma in simply wonderful conditions, with cool crisp Prairie air moving into the region behind that vast area of low pressure in the Great Lakes. This will change ever so slightly in Missouri, in the Springfield area, when some overcast with a shot for a little bit of drizzle for the rest of the day, which will end in the Bohigian Consevation area, west of Rolla.

DAY TWO
It’s going to be a similar day, essentially, on Friday, as it was on Saturday. The drizzly garbage will have shifted east by the time we get moving, and our drive through St. Louis and Illinois will be quite pleasant. It’s when we cross the border into Indiana that things will start to get a little bit dreary. The same overcast, light rain pattern will move in as we head through the Hoosier State and into Ohio. The day will end in Lake Darby, which is just to the west of Columbus.

DAY THREE
The low will begin to reorganize as it moves into Canada. We’re not going to start out as dry as it was on Thursday and Friday, and in fact, in western Pennsylvania, the rain will get much heavier through Pittsburgh and Bedford, and then steadily diminish until we get to Harrisburg, after which point, it will be dry on into Philly.
philadelphia

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Our forecast today takes us to the mid-Atlantic and the City of Brotherly Love. The forecast is going to be a little damp.

At 135PM, ET, Philadelphia was reporting a temperature of 52 degrees with rain. The local radar imagery shows heavy rain across the coverage area, but a broader perspective shows that a shield of heavy rain extends from southern New England to Chesapeake Bay, while strong thunderstorms extend south to the eastern Carolinas.
This is all a function of a negatively tilted trough in the center of the country that has been bringing heavy rain along the coast to the Gulf of Mexico for the past 24 hours, and destructive tornadoes to the southeast for the three days before that. The upper level low is losing some of its isolation, and an open wave pattern will help encourage the system begin to move off to the north. The upper level jet wil straddle the Appalachians, and the surface cold front will only make its way through Philly tomorrow afternoon, and another inch or more of rain will be possible tomorrow. Since the upper jet is going to hang back to the west, a dramatic cool down is not expected for Friday. Clouds and a brisk wind will continue beneath the strong upper level pattern.
Tomorrow – Rain likely, finally clearing late, High 74, Low 59
Friday – Mostly cloudy, breezy, High 59, Low 50

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Showers High 74, Low 60
Friday – Mostly Sunny High 69, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Clouds giving way to some sun, breezy and warmer with a shower or thunderstorm in the area High 76, Low 54
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 69, Low 53

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Cloudy High 75, Low 59
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 70, Low 53

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning…then a chance of showers in the afternoon High 75, Low 58
Friday – Partly sunny. High 70, Low 53

WN: Tomorrow – Numerous Showers High 75, Low 61
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 70, Low 54

It’s mighty rainy along the east coast, and nowhere is it more true than in Philadelphia. The rain has led the Phillies to postpone tonights game already, in fact. Here is that rainy radar.
DIX_0

The Ninja System

Usually when a forecast goes awry, the explanation is hard to come by. A band of clouds slipped a couple miles north, the wind was gustier than expected or an isolated shower was actually a little bit more scattered. On the whole, we all tend to have a pretty good handle on the broader system, missing only some details. This was not the case in Philadelphia. An entire rainy, complicated system blew up over the southeastern US and started pumping moisture into the Philadelphia area. The upper level trough associated with this developing system sharpened and strengthened a lot more than expected, so after a cold front got to Philadelphia, the boundary stalled and started acting as a stationary or even a back door warm front, and moisture from the southeast started funneling north. Clouds and drizzle were present through almost the entire day yesterday, and temperatures never had a chance to drop off like initially expected. It was a pretty bad forecast all around, but the lack of effective model guidance was the real killer. The Weather Channel managed to have the best forecast, but I’m not sure they deserve any credit.
Actuals: Saturday – High 89, Low 72
Sunday – .04 inches of rain, High 73, Low 65

Grade: D