Tag Archives: Panama City

Burned out

Last week, before things got ruined by Cindy, Panama City and the rest of the Florida Panhandle was being overrun by flow off the Gulf, directed towards a series of low pressure centers sweeping through New England. It got a little bit rainier later in this week, but before Cindy would get there, it was surprisingly dry, given the flow regime. Of course, the problem was that nascent tropical feature absorbing any moisture that wanted to come ashore, so that likely played a role in that aberrant lack of rain. In fact, there was no rain on Friday, but there was a splash on Saturday, considerably less than had been in the forecast, pre-Cindy. Those sunnier than expected skies also produced temperatures that were towards the warmer end of forecasts. Victoria-Weather had warm highs, but it was The Weather Channel’s warm lows that earned them the victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 86, Low 70
Saturday – Rain reported, not measured, High 88, Low 75

Grade: B-C

Brunswick, Georgia to Panama City, Florida

We’re going to take a road trip, but we’ll make sure it’s brief today, as we head from the Atlantic coast of southeast Georgia to the Gulf Coast of the Florida Panhandle. The cities of Brunswick are separated by 332 miles and a little over 5 hours. A big chunk of the day will be slowed by travelling through Jacksonville, but we will still maintain a pace of 64.9mph. We are spending quite a bit of time in north Florida, so I hope you like it.

There isn’t much organization in the southeastern US, but with low pressure continuing to ebb and fade in the northeast, sea breezes will continue to collide with slightly drierair inland, and produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Rain won’t be widespread, by any means, but don’t be surprised by a few scattered showers here and there as we pass through north Florida. The best area for convergence is always around Lake City, so if you want to make bets or something, bet on seeing a shower there. Also, if you want to make bets, you have a gambling problem. The threat for rain will still be present in Panama City, but it should be more sun than rain.

Panama City, Florida

I did some research to assuage my curiousity. Indeed, the Florida version of Panama City was named after the one in Panama, because it was founded during the height of Panama Canal Fever,which is actually sounds like an infectious disease, seeing it in print. will the weather seem Central American as well?

AT 353PM, ET, Panama City was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with rain showers. There were isolated thunderstorms literring the interior of the eastern Gulf region, and along the coast, the thunderstorms have ended and given way to more general rain showers. Flow from the southwest towards a weak area of low pressure in the northeast, bringing in the moisture that was enveloping the region.
While the pattern continues to churn to the northeast of the Panama City area, it will be left relatively unchanged in the Florida Panhandle. A moisture rich southwesterly flow will continue to feed ever organizing and reorganizing areas of low pressure in eastern Canada, which means that more isolated showers with some embedded thunder will remain possible, especially in the afternoons, for the next few days.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, High 89, Low 72
Saturday – Less active, High 89, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Cloudy skies late High 85, Low 73
Saturday – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning. Partly cloudy skies late. High 84. Low 75

AW: More clouds than sun with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 84, Low 74
Saturday -A thunderstorm in spots in the morning followed by a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 84, Low 74

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 75
Saturday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 75

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 76
Saturday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 82, Low 76

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 84, Low 75
Saturday – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 84, Low 75

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until evening. High 83, Low 77
Saturday – Light rain starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 84, Low 78

Here is a look at the radar from this afternoon, with just a swath of rain moving into the Panama City area.

Inaccurate Logjam

Only 2 points separated the top 5 scores for Panama City, but that doesn’t mean that we should pat ourselves on the back. The temperature Wednesday morning was a lot lower than most people expected it to be, which cost most outlets a ton of points. Thursday’s wasn’t AS low as Wednesdays, but still, threw a lot of people off. Accuweather eeked out a victory.

Wednesday: High 87, Low 73.
Thursday: 0.35″ of rain in thunderstorms. High 88, Low 77.
Forecast Grade: C

Panama City, Florida

It’s time for a trip to Florida… wait, didn’t we just do that a few hours ago? We did, but here we are again, ready to enjoy what north Florida has to offer.

At 1153AM, ET, Panama City was reporting a temperature of 90 degrees with mostly clear skies. Despite the clear skies in Panama City, there were scattered showers and storms throughout the region, particularly off shore from Panama City and also to the southeast, near Cedar Key. Guidance that has successfully grasped this activity suggests that the shower activity will take until this evening to diminish.
There isn’t much to the thermally enhanced sea breeze today, however a developing low in the Ohio Valley is producing the perturbation necessary for convective development in the region. This wave is going to build towards the Carolinas with an active cold front sinking towards the Panhandle through the day tomorrow. Instead of a true, well organized cold front, there will be successive waves of showers and storms, induced by the counterclockwise flow of the system, as opposed to a significant infusion of cold air to the region. This means that, while the thunderstorms won’t be as severe as they could be, the threat will be persistent through most of the day Wednesday and Thursday. The system will be shifting off the Carolina coast on Thursday, and more on shore sea breeze interaction will be involved in thunderstorm development for Thursday.
Tomorrow – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 91, Low 78
Thursday – More persistent thunderstorms through the day, High 90, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Thunderstorms, High 89, Low 80
Thursday – Scattered thunderstorms, High 89, Low 80

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 89, Low 79
Thursday – Clouds and sun; a morning t-storm followed by a couple of thunderstorms around in the afternoon High 89, Low 79

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 88, Low 80
Thursday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 87, Low 80

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.High 89, Low 80
Thursday – Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 88, Low 80

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 90, Low 81
Thursday – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Storms High 90, Low 81

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain until afternoon. High 89, Low 80
Thursday – Light rain until evening, starting again overnight. High 89, Low 81

Forecasts are generally below guidance on those highs. If things go well, temperatures could easily touch the mid 90s tomorrow. Here is the fairly active radar presently seen around Panama City.
Panama City

Temperatures take a drop

Panama City had a cold front slide through on Friday, and tried to recover to temperatures that were more befitting of a state called the Sunshine State. They ended up sporting highs and lows that were exactly the same on Saturday AND Sunday. The temperatures were in turn warmer than anticipated on Saturday and right on the nose on Sunday. I think I meant to forecast a low of 47 on Saturday, but I don’t know for sure. Either way, the forecast I issued said 37 which was 8 degrees off. If I HAD put 47, Victoria-Weather would have won the day. I didn’t, which means there was a three way tie at the top between the NWS, Weatherbug and WeatherNation.
Actuals: Saturday, High 64, Low 45
Sunday – High 64, Low 45

Grade: B-C

Panama City, Florida

The Gulf Coast has been very active this year. Does this trend look to continue through the weekend? Only one way to find out.

At 235PM, ET, Panama City was reporting a temperature of 61 degrees with mostly clear skies, however the current observation also suggested light rain, despite radar returns suggesting that precipitation was already southeast of Perry. Winds were from the northwest in response to frontal passage earlier in the day, and temperatures responded by sinking into the 60s. There will be well below normal lows tonight, though not as chilly as places like Nashville, where things are liable to dip well below freezing.
If there is an advantage to the deep trough setting up over the eastern third of the country, it is that it will be effective in preventing the moist flow that has afflicted the coast recently. There may be a few showers at the southwestern flank of the trough, though flow will likely prevent those from reaching Panama City. The wave will shift off shore by Sunday, and temperatures then are expected to rebound nicely.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 64, Low 37
Sunday – Sunny and warmer, High 68, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 66, Low 48
Sunday – Sunny, High 70, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Plenty of sunshine High 73, Low 48
Sunday – Plenty of sunshine High 68. Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 61, Low 47
Sunday – Sunny, High 65, Low 46

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 61, Low 47
Sunday – Sunny, High 65, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 61, Low 48
Sunday – Mostly Sunny, High 64, Low 46

FIO: Tomorrow – Clear throughout the day. High 62, Low 48
Sunday – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 65, Low 50

That sounds pretty good from Minnesota, but I’m sure it’s not what Floridians are hoping for. Let’s take a look at the radar, showing rain on it’s way out of town.
Panama City

Lawton, Oklahoma to Panama City, Florida

We’re going to head to the beach today, with a nice little two day trip across the Mississippi from Oklahoma to Florida. It’s a 956 mile journey, with a little bit longer leg coming on Friday. There isn’t as much interstate on this trek as we might like, and as a result, our pace will be 62.8mph. That will allow us to cover 502 miles on Friday, the rest on Saturday. This is about the time of year to find some sand.

DAY ONE (Friday)
High pressure is overwhelming the south central United States, pushing all of the weather towards New England and the Pacific Northwest. The temperatures aren’t as blazing as they are in the summer either, so the combination of pleasurable temperatures and clear skies could make to for an easy drive to Holly Ridge, Louisiana, which is east of Monroe.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
A cold front moving just off shore is going to keep pushing the remnants of a tropical depression southeast and away from Florida. It was never going to threaten Panama City; I mostly just didn’t want to say “high pressure” to start another day of the drive. It should be great beach weather when we reach it.
Panama City

Tropical moisture

Panama City is the name of a city, obviously, in Panama, but the site we forecast for on Friday, the Florida version, was the one that saw a tropical deluge on Sunday. There was a little bit of rain late on Saturday, but the real show came on Sunday, when 3.4″ of rain fell in thunderstorms. Heck, it’s still raining right now. The Weather Channel had the top forecast in Panama City, mostly because temperatures didn’t fall off as dramatically as some of the other outlets had predicted.
Actuals: Saturday – Trace of rain, High 72, Low 46
Sunday – 3.40 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 70, Low 60

Grade: B

Panama City, Florida

Around here, most people are on their Spring Break, so let’s go visit a pretty good spring break location, the Florida Panhandle!

At 10:58pm CDT, the temperature at Panama City was 51 degrees under clear skies. High pressure pulling out of the region will give way to some increasing onshore flow over the region, with some increasing clouds throughout the day. An area of low pressure developing in the Southern Plains is going to be the big weather-maker of the weekend, and as it intensifies, it shifts towards the TN Valley. There could be a few isolated showers kicked up over the area late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, but chances for showers will really kick up around dawn on Sunday. As the low intensifies, it will extend a cold front down through the Gulf Coast which will kick up some thunderstorms. Some of these could be strong as they cruise through the FL Panhandle during the afternoon, so keep an eye out! The front will push east of the area by the evening, but showers will continue to linger throughout the night into Monday as a new area of low pressure is expected to develop in the immediate area, keeping the wet weather around.

Saturday: Increasing clouds through the afternoon, slight chance of late night rain shower. High 70, Low 49.
Sunday: Heavy rains and thunderstorms expected, couple strong thunderstorms possible. High 69, Low 59.

TWC: Saturday: Showers late. High 71, Low 50.
Sunday: Thunderstorms expected. High 70, Low 59.

AW: Saturday: Increasing clouds, a thunderstorm late. High 70, Low 50.
Sunday: Strong afternoon thunderstorms. High 71, Low 60.

NWS: Saturday: Mostly sunny, chance of evening showers. High 69, Low 52.
Sunday: Showers and thunderstorms expected. High 70, Low 60.

WB: Saturday: Chance of evening thunderstorms. High 68, Low 51.
Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 68, Low 54.

WN: Saturday: Isolated showers. High 66, Low 54.
Sunday: Windy with thunderstorms. High 68, Low 55.

Here we see the stream of clouds just off to the north, with the system starting to get going over Texas. This is going to bring us the weather weather throughout the weekend and into St. Patrick’s Day.