Warmer, but also rainier than expected
Posted by Ryan
Newport News is in a sometimes tricky area. Mountain ranges do funny things to boundaries, and the affect of the sea surrounding them. It appeared as though the Hampton Roads would be dry for the period, but the Appalachians helped contort a boundary to follow the Virginia coast, sending showers towards the area off an on late Sunday (totally unexpected) and then again late Monday (somewhat more expected). Another surprise for Monday was the very warm westerly winds that drove temperatures to the mid 70s. Almost everyone was off by double digits for their forecast high. The two outlets with the top forecasts were ourselves, who pegged the warm up on Monday, and the overall champ, The Weather Channel, who at least suspected some rain as well on Monday.
Actuals: Sunday - Rain reported, not measured, High 51, Low 37
Monday - Rain reported, not measured, High 75, Low 46
Grade: D
Newport News, Virginia
Posted by Ryan
Off to the Hampton Roads area of southeastern Virginia. It lies just north of Norfolk, if you are still trying to figure it out on your mental atlas.
At 354PM, ET, Newport news was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with clear skies. A ridge of high pressure over the Great Lakes and eastern United States was keeping pleasant weather in command for the coast. A broad, laminar ridge was seen aloft, with a trough over the Rockies that was aiding in the surface development of some thunderstorm activity.
Any energy within the western trough will not be enough to overcome the aforementioned ridge over the eastern third of the US, and will instead ride that ridge north into the Great Lakes and Canada. If anything, over the next couple of days the temperature in Newport News will increase with southerly flow drawn into the system to their north, but the region will remain dry.
Tomorrow - Sunny and warm, High 57, Low 40
Monday - Sunny and increasingly warm, High 74, Low 43
TWC: Tomorrow - Sunny, along with a few afternoon clouds High 54, Low 42
Monday - Chance of showers. High 69, Low 43
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny High 53, Low 38
Monday - Breezy and warmer with intervals of clouds and sunshine High 64, Low 38
NWS: Tomorrow - Sunny High 53, Low 35
Monday - Mostly cloudy High 65, Low 38
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 52, Low 37
Monday - Mostly cloudy. Milder High 66, Low 38
I am inclined to go warmer today in southeastern Virginia, given the warm air already in place, and I don't know why The Weather Channel is going rain... doesn't look very wet. This satellite is shown because of the activity over the plains. Not much to talk about in Virginia.
Avoiding the thunder
Posted by Ryan
There were severe thunderstorms in Washington DC yesterday, which isn't terribly far from Newport News. As it turned out, though, the thunderstorms popped up just south of DC and shifted off to the north, narrowly averting the Hampton Roads area. Newport News only ended up with three hundredths of an inch of rain, but the passage of the cold front that generated the storms in DC did knock down temperatures several degrees. Victoria-Weather ended up with the top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday - High 75, Low 55
Monday - High 70, Low 55
Grade: B
Jonesboro, Arkansas to Newport News, Virginia
Posted by Ryan
Are you excited for this two day excursion that will zig-zag from northeastern Arkansas to southeastern Virginia. It's a 974 mile, mountainous journey that will put us through 2 full days of driving. In a perfect scenario, we'll drive at 63mph and nail down 505 miles on the first day. We'll see how that goes.
DAY ONE
The first day of our trip will be rather wet, to say the least. The center of low pressure will pass right over Arkansas and push an occluded front with some heavy raun and even a Thunderstorm right over Jonesboro early on Sunday. the heaviest of the rain will have pushed off to our east at 10, our departure time, but as we head to the east we will catch up with the very heavy rain once again. By the time we reach Jackson, Tennessee, the light, scattered showers will turn themselves into heavy rain again, with thunderstorms in the mix as well. We'll have to contend with fairly strong showers or storms until we reach Cookeville. We may see some clearing after that, but the boundary will still chase us on into Morristown/Lowland Tennessee, which is in the far eastern corner of the state.
DAY TWO
The system will pull it's self through the Appalachians and the Smokies and we will be in line, perhaps, for some snow as we wake up in the highlands of Lowland, Tennessee. It won't be much, but there will continue to be the threat for a flurry mixed in with any spotty showers up along the spine of the Appalachians to I-64, where we will make our eastward turn, when our mix will turn to all rain again. Today, we'll be behind the the front, however, so the threat for thunder is reduced. It will certainly be dreary as we arrive in Newport News on Monday evening.
Newport News, Virginia
Posted by Ryan
There are a lot of sizable towns in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, as it is called. You have Norfolk, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Hampton and, of course, Newport News.
At 154PM, ET, Newport News was reporting a temperature of 78 degrees with clear skies. Southerly flow induced by a still developing system over the center of the country was bringing Summerlike air to Virginia and much of the east coast. The sunny skies and southerly flow promised to bring an 80 or warmer by days end.
An deep upper level trough is going to ride atop the subtropical jet right towards Newport News area. The jet orientation is going to lead to rapid occlusion, and the warm sector of the low will actually mean easterly flow for Newport News, causing temperatures to cool, clouds to mount and humidity to rise. The rain itself won't arrive until Monday afternoon. When the rain does start, it will be heavy at times. Fortunately, the heaviest of the rain will pass south of the Hampton Roads.
Tomorrow - Increasing clouds, High 75, Low 53
Monday - Rain likely, High 66, Low 53
TWC: Tomorrow - Except for a few afternoon clouds, mainly sunny. High 76, Low 50
Monday - Rain and thunder. High 67, Low 56
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny and warm High 72, low 52
Monday - Rain, some heavy, and a thunderstorm; breezy High 68, Low 54
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 49
Monday - Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. High 67, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny High 75, low 49
Monday - Showers in the morning...then showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon High 67, Low 53
Rain is on it's way. A very Springish system. That's nice to see.
