Tag Archives: Naples

Naples, Florida to Champaign, Illinois

Boy, this sure has been a lot of traveling, hasn’t it been? We’re returning from the sunny shores of Naples, Florida on a two day trip covering 1239 miles. The second day will be the long one, but we should cover 557 miles on Tuesday, leaving the rest of the trip for Wednesday. Let’s get going. Might as well get leaving Florida over with. 🙁

DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Naples-Florida
If you haven’t heard, it’s an absolute mess in the east coast, but a surge of warm air will help to prevent too much snow and ice accumulation for the eastern Seaboard. But we are starting in Florida. A very active cold front will be moving through the Florida Peninsula, with scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow morning. Sleeping in Naples may be difficult tonight, but as we get going in the morning, the source cold front will be almost through the area. Some post frontal showers will be possible to about Tampa, with clear skies then filling in a we drive North Florida. Clouds may begin to fill back in while driving through central Georgia, but we will stop in Forsyth for the night before we have to worry about any other nefarious conditions.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
The broad upper level trough that has been bedeviling the country for so many days is finally going to start retreating to the northeast by Wednesday. Not only will we steer clear of any precipitation, but nearly everywhere we drive will be warmer than it was on Tuesday. People in Champaign are just going to be so happy to be outside when we arrive.
Champaign

Spartanburg, South Carolina to Naples, Florida

In theory, this should be a slightly longer trip than the one we had coming into Spartanburg. In practice? It will likley be the shorter of the trips, despite being estmated at nearly 11 hours of driving over the course of 731 miles. This will bring us to a pace of 67.4mph. The interstate in Florida is a race track. Let’s get going!

Spartanburg
The churning machinations of a coastal trough and a strong, developing low over the Lower Mississippi Valley will help to generate shower activity across most of South Carolina, but the best chance to see any of the light rain will be in the small area we will be on I-95 over downstate South Carolina until we reach the Georgia border. Driving through east Georgia and into north Florida we will be fine, but the strength of the rotation over the southeastern US, as well as the presence of a jet streak over the Florida Peninsula will introduce the threat for some high clouds laden with scattered showers south of Ocala. The NAM in particular is pinpointing a bullseye around Lakeland late in the day tomorrow, which could lead to some showers on the east side of the Tampa metro. Don’t be surprised if there are some isolated showers or even a rumble of thunder all the way through Sarasota, but it should really start winding down as we approach Naples. Mostly cloudy, but still definitely Florida when we arrive.

Heat, humidity and thunderstorms

Temperatures in Naples did indeed soar into the 90s in Naples over the last two days. This was despite the thunderstorms that advanced on the area, threatening to prevent high temperatures from climbing to such great heights. And Naples wasn’t merely grazed by storms, either. They saw nearly a half inch of rain from a downpour on Tuesday afternoon. I wasn’t fully convinced that there would be any precipitation in Naples, but I’m glad it was included in the Victoria-Weather forecast, because it ended up earning the top spot for the day.
Actuals: Tuesday – .46 inches of rain with thunderstorms, High 90, Low 72
Wednesday – .19 inches of rain with thunderstorms, High 90, Low 71

Grade: A0B

Carson City, Nevada to Naples, Florida

Oh baby, is this a long road trip. We’re going to take nearly 6 full days to cover the nearly 3000 miles between the endpoints of this trip. Our average speed will be 65.75mph, which means days 1-5 will be through after 526 miles with a shorter day to finish things off. Lots of driving. We’d better depart.

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DAY ONE (Tuesday)
Carson City
I usually opt for the first route option Mapquest recommends, but for some reason, the route proffered was a full hour longer than the 2nd option today. The first route heads east on I-80, but instead, we will head southeast towards Las Vegas. A swirling area of low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will produce showers across the center of the state, mostly triggered by the higher terrain found in the middle of the state. There could be a scattered showers in Tonopah as we head towards Vegas, but the bulk of the trip will be at a low enough elevation that we won’t have to worry about any of those showers or thunderstorms, and the system will be receding from northern Nevada anyways. The drive will end in Golden Valley, Arizona, just outside of Kingman. It will be warm in southern Nevada and northwest Arizona, but definitely palatable for almost anyone.

DAY TWO (Wednesday)
A developing disturbance in south Texas will be lifting north over the next several days. We will encounter the back end of the system almost immediately after we hit the New Mexico border. There will be scattered thunderstorms throughout the western Arizona mountains, though the heaviest will be reserved for the terrain just west of Albuquerque. As we drive through western New Mexico, the low will be lifting north, and the available moisture will be greatly reduced for our route. By the time we his Albuquerque, expect mostly rain showers, without the threat for thunder. The day will end on the east side of Moriarty, which is east of Albuquerque.

DAY THREE (Thursday)
The system will be lifting north northeast towards the Upper Midwest, and it will dry up nicely in Moriarty overnight. We will drive through Amarillo and Wichita Falls in mostly cloudy but dry conditions. A stalled cold front will bring showers to the Metroplex, but we will stop in Alvord, just before we get to the northwestern part of the region. Pretty good timing t head through this part of the country.

DAY FOUR (Friday)
As the low erodes in the Great Lakes, the Gulf of Mexico will be wide open on Friday. There won’t be anything organized, but particularly after we cross into Louisiana west of Shreveport, we may be subject to scattered showers and thunderstorms. From Alexandria southwestward, some of those storms are prone to be soaking and torrential, but they won’t be pervasive, and they won’t move much. This means that we won’t constantly be getting soaked, and we may well see the sun in-between rain showers. Of course, in the midst of the rainfall, there could be flash flooding. Win some, lose some. WE will stop for the night in Sunset, Louisiana, which is just north of Lafayette.

DAY FIVE (Saturday)
This is definitely going to be daytime convection rich. This is still 5 days out, but it appears that the best chance for heavy thunderstorms will be from Biloxi to Pensacola, but that makes sense, because the heaviest convection during the sea breeze season is usually in the afternoon. WE will be between Biloxi and Pensacola during the afternoon. As we start to veer away from the coast, we will still be subject to a chance for thunderstorms, but they won’t be as persistent, though since they will take more energy to trigger, they may be heavier. Before we begin our final southward leg, we will stop for the night in Welborn, Florida, west of Live Oak, east of Lake City.

DAY SIX (Sunday)
This is it! Just one last trip south. There should only be a few pop up thunderstorms, starting around Cape Coral, through most of the convection will be inland of our route. There will be a chance that we could get grazed by one of these cells for the rest of the drive on into Naples. A little bit different than Carson City, is Naples.
Naples-Florida

Naples, Florida

Our exercise in major thunderstorm avoidance continues tonight, as we head off to Naples for tonight’s forecast.

At 753pm, ET, Naples was reporting mostly cloudy skies and a temperature of 75 degres. There was one cluster of convection producing rain near Fort Myers, however radar attenuation and ground clutter made it more easily demarcated via satellite imagery than from the local radar. Otherwise, South Florida looked to be in pretty great shape for the night.
Long term, low resolution models paint a pretty stormy picture for south Florida over the next couple of days, but shorter range, higher resolution models paint a significantly less rainy picture going forward. That seems to be the most likely scenario. Brisk easterly trades will push afternoon convection towards the western side of the Peninsula and closer to the Naples area, but without inland flow around Naples, don’t expect too many heavy or long lived storms through Wednesday.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms, High 91, Low 71
Wednesday – Mostly sunny with an isolated afternoon storm, High 91, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow – PM Thunderstorms, High 88, Low 71
Wednesday – PM Thunderstorms, High 91, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Sun and some clouds with a thunderstorm in the afternoon high 89, Low 70
Wednesday – Partly sunny and humid; a thunderstorm in a couple of spots in the afternoon High 81, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 71
Wednesday – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 88, Low 70
Wednesday – Partly sunny with a chanc High 88, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 86, Low 72
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 86, Low 72

FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain throughout the day. High 87, Low 71
Wednesday – Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 89, Low 72

A bit of a range in temperatures. The WEather Channel actually has a 100% chance for thunderstorms tomorrow, which is mind boggling. HEre is the satellite of the western Caribbean, where you can certainly make out the thunderstorm complex just to the north of Naples.
Naples

Exceeding expectations

It’s been a pretty warm stretch for the Plains and eastern third of the country, and I guess the same was true for south Florida. Naples was supposed to see temperatures in the low to mid 80s the last two days, but instead, they climbed all the way up to the upper 80s. They high on both Tuesday and Wednesday ended up at 88 degrees. The heat in the tropical moisture was enough to touch off a few showers in the Naples area as well. The warmest forecasts were the best, but Victoria-Weather vaulted The Weather Channel by correctly ascertaining the threat for rain.
Actuals: Monday – High 88, Low 68
Tuesday – .11 inches of rain, High 88, Low 72

Grade: B-D

Naples, Florida

It’s a tropical paradise kind of day here at Victoria-Weather, starting with our verification in Honolulu, and now our forecast in south Florida. We’ve seen the past, on to the future!

At 153AM, ET, Naples was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 71 degrees. Florida was enjoying a clear pattern, particularly at the southwestern end of the peninsula. There was some easterly flow into a developing system over the lower Mississippi Valley, but to this point, it has been fairly limited in its reach.
The system over the western Gulf will be regenerative thanks to an upper level trough that continues to lie over the region. The initial wave’s northeastward advance will bull it’s pendant cold front east as well, which will in turn allow the net round of wet weather to set up over Louisiana initially, rather than east Texas. As a result, flow into the system will be more robust over Florida, and by Wednesday, there stands to be a bit more thunderstorm activity over Florida, including the Naples area.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 86, Low 69
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, with an isolated thunderstorm High 86, Low 69

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 87, Low 69
Wednesday – Partly cloudy, High 87, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, breezy and more humid High 85, Low 65
Wednesday – Partial sunshine with a shower High 86, Low 69

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 66
Wednesday – A 30 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny High 82, Low 68

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny. A chance of showers in the afternoon High 86, Low 67
Wednesday – Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of showers.High 87, Low 68

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Showers High 82, Low 66
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy with Scattered Showers High 82, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 81, Low 69
Wednesday – Light rain in the morning and afternoon. High 80, Low 70

The system in the plains is really showing up great on satellite. Pretty clear and wonderful in Naples.
Naples

Smothered from the sun

Naples is supposed to be a warm sunny getaway this time of year, and compared to the Great Lakes, I suppose it is. For Naples though, it wasn’t the sunny life of luxury they might be used to. Temperatures yesterday were held in check by a thick layer of clouds, and it only reached a high of 71. Those heavy clouds also produced a few drops of rain, which is typical in the summer, but somewhat more rare when it gets closer to winter. Nobody did great on this forecast because it was so much more depressing than we were expecting, but Accuweather did the best.
Actuals: Thursday – High 77, Low 54
Friday – Trace of rain, High 71, Low 61

Grade: C

Naples, Florida

They are receiving several feet of snow around Buffalo this week. We know that much. Just to be a tease to them, let’s see what’s going on in South Florida.

At 1253pm, ET, Naples was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with overcast skies. A strong area of low pressure that sits off the coast of Labrador is generating a vigorous northwesterly flow through the Great Lakes, producing the aforementioned snows. Additionally, the low is producing a cold front that swings around the Atlantic Coast, down the Gulf Stream and is clipping south Florida, generating the clouds Naples is seeing right now, and allowing temperatures to dip well below normal in the Sunshine state.
There are a few showers embedded within the thick clouds, thought they predominantly lie south and east of line from Fort Lauderdale to Everglades City, and it appears as though Naples will stay dry today. The energy and instability that the boundary has brought to south Florida will linger in the Florida Straights, leaving a remnant trough to feast on Tropical moisture. Weak upper level troughing in Alabama and Georgia will draw some of the instability back north, leading to a more summer like pattern over south Florida. Expect afternoon thunderstorms to be fairly widespread on Friday, with increasing clouds leading up to them on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Clearing early, with increasing clouds late, High 76, Low 52
Friday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 79, Low 65

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 76, Low 50
Friday – Showers High 78, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and warmer High 75, Low 53
Friday – Periods of clouds and sunshine with a passing shower High 79, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 74, Low 55
Friday – Mostly Cloudy, High 76, Low 62

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 75, Low 55
Friday – Mostly Cloudy, High 78, Low 62

WN: Tomorrow – Partly Cloudy High 75, Low 55
Friday – Mostly cloudy, High 77, Low 63

Looks like I am going a big warmer than everyone else. I’ve learned to trust models in south Florida, so that’s which way I’m going. Here is the radar, showing a few showers.
AMX_0

Temperate in the tropics

Summer time in south Florida can be nearly unpleasant because it is so warm. Upper 80s, humid and with an occasional afternoon thunderstorm. The nice thing for locals is that the snowbirds aren’t down there, crowding things out. The weather in Naples, however, portends to a return of tourist season on the southwest coast. Temperatures were in the low 80s and there was no moisture to speak of. In short, it was a very comfortable set of days for anyone visiting, and even for the locals. It was a pretty easy forecast, and Accuweather nearly nailed it.
Actuals – Saturday – High 83, Low 66
Sunday – High 83, low 64

Grade: A