Just As Expected
Posted by Anthony
Well, the forecasts for Naples barely varied across the board, and Mother Nature didn't disappoint. Some clouds showed up in the afternoons, but not enough to stop temps from pushing up into the 80s. Weatherbug took home the win missing out on a perfect forecast by a single degree.
Wednesday: High 83, Low 66.
Thursday: High 81, Low 66.
Forecast Grade: A
Naples, Florida to Buffalo, New York
Posted by Anthony
Here we are, about to span most of the Eastern Seaboard (in a sense) on today's road trip. 1,387 miles separate these 2 cities, which will take us 3 days to cover.
DAY ONE
The cold front that's been causing havoc over the Eastern US will pretty much clear the Eastern Seaboard throughout the day today, with the tail end of it lingering over the Deep South as it becomes stationary and eventually dissipates. Outside of some morning fog, we shouldn't have any problems with the weather as we head northwards through the FL Peninsula and past Jacksonville into coastal Georgia. A few rain showers are possible between Jacksonville and Savannah as we move on through during the afternoon hours, but nothing too horrendous is anticipated. Otherwise it should be smooth sailing as we stop in Ridgeland, SC for the night.
DAY TWO
Cloudy skies are expected for the morning as we continue our northward trek today, this time making our way through the Carolinas and ultimately the Virginias. With another low pressure system intensifying in the Central US and pushing a cold front through the MS River Valley by midday, things could get harrowing later on in the day. First off, however, we might have some showers and scattered thunderstorms to contend with by midday as we make our way towards the Charlotte area. As we make our way through the thin portion of Virginia and up into West Virginia, we'll still have to content with showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms as we finally make our way into Beckley, West Virginia, our stop for Night 2.
DAY THREE
Hopefully you got some sleep during the overnight, with the cold front pushing through Beckley and all. Looks like there's a chance of some heavy thunderstorms moseying on through during the early morning hours, so be on the lookout when you're getting ready during the morning. If this cold front is a little faster than currently forecast, then conditions should clear up very well by midday with just some clouds lingering over WV and PA. Otherwise, it still could be a rather rainy start to the day as we drive through Morgantown and eventually through Pittsburgh. Either way, the precip should be out of our way by the early afternoon hours, making for a clean finish to the trip as we roll past Erie and finally into Buffalo!
State College, Pennsylvania to Naples Florida
Posted by Ryan
Headed south for Spring Break? Leaving Penn State to hit the beaches of south Florida? Well, it will take you two and a half days to get down there, and you will rack up 1262 miles on the odometer. That will put you at a pace of 62.1mph, which will seems slow for someone driving through Florida. A college student, no less. Tell you what, let's just shoot for 497 miles a day, shall we?
DAY ONE
We will leave State College and immediately be inundated with heavy rain. A system moving out of the Plains is carrying with it a great deal of moisture and warm air. The heavy rain will be with us until we reach about the North Carolina border. When I say heavy rain, I mean models are projecting a couple inches of rain between about State College and Staunton, Virginia. Heavy rain will continue through Roanoke, and it will still be raining, ever so lightly, when we reach Mount Mourne, North Carolina, between Mooresville and Davidson. The threat for thunder is there, especially the further south we go, but nothing will be well organized.
DAY TWO
Our trip south continues, and the threat for thunderstorms will likely pick up soon after we arrive in Mount Mourne and last through Midnight. The front will show up a little bit better on Thursday, but will not be as active as the area near the low itself was. There will still be a few showers, especially through South Carolina, but by the time we hit the Georgia border, we will merely contend with a few clouds. The drive through north Florida should be problem free, a nice change of pace from the rainy mess we will see on Wednesday. The day will end in Kendall, Florida, which is just north of Ocala.
DAY THREE
Four hours of driving in Florida, which frankly will not take us 4 hours. Folks in Florida drive quite rapidly. There won't be any weather to deal with, and record warmth will be perfect for rolling down the windows and enjoying the palm trees.
Naples, Florida
Posted by Ryan
My parents are leaving Fort Myers tomorrow, which is just north of Naples. Too bad I couldn't get the forecast to them sooner.
At 1153AM, ET, Naples was reporting sunny skies with a temperature of 80 degrees. Flow was off shore, which portended to good things this afternoon for beach goers. With temperatures warming inland, a seabreeze may eventually pick up, but the threat for showers isn't very high. There was some lingering cloudiness over the center of the state after some rain yesterday, but it wasn't going move anywhere, instead burning off as the day continues.
A strong system over the center of the country would eventually redirect flow even as far south as Naples so that it will stamp out an off shore flow in the morning. The only effect that Naples may see because of the system is a few more clouds each of the next two days.
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy, High 85, Low 66
Thursday - Mostly cloudy, High 84, Low 67
TWC: Tomorrow - Intervals of clouds and sunshine. High 85, Low 65
Thursday - Times of sun and clouds. High 83, Low 65
AW: Tomorrow - Sunny to partly cloudy, warm and humid High 85, Low 65
Thursday - Partly sunny High 85, Low 65
NWS: Tomorrow - Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly sunny High 84, Low 66
Thursday - Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 66
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny. High 83, Low 66
Thursday - Partly cloudy. High 81, Low 66
I don't know why Weatherbug is going as cool as they are (low 80s being cool) because everyone else is pretty well in agreement. Satellite shows the lingering low clouds over central Florida.
A good start to the new year
Posted by Ryan
On new year's eve, we were lucky to have two forecasts, including one from Jeff Lyons from WFIE in Evansville, Indiana. The forecast that we will take a look back at, however, is Anthony's forecast for Naples. Naples rang in the new year right, with temperatures near 80 and never dropping below 60. Rain didn't find it's way into one of our most frequent forecast sites over the year's first weekend, making things even better. The National Weather Service started the year with a victory, nosing out Victoria-Weather by not having rain in the forecast.
Actuals: Saturday - High 80, Low 61
Sunday - High 79, Low 61
Grade: B
Naples, Florida
Posted by Anthony
2010 is wrapping up a busy weather year, and we have a large system affecting the Midwest. Blizzard in the Dakotas! Severe Thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Nation's Heartland! Possible flooding rains in the Central Gulf Coast! So where are we forecasting for today? That's right... South Florida. Where pretty much nothing is going on...
At 11:53AM EST, the temperature in Naples, FL was 78 degrees under partly cloudy skies. High pressure over the Southeast is keeping the Florida Peninsula fairly quiet outside of some spotty clouds. Our mega-system over the central US is pushing a cold front towards the east, but that high pressure is doing a fairly good job at slowing down it's progression towards the Sunshine State. The whole tail end of the front pretty much stalls out over northern FL on Sunday, leaving some increased clouds over the rest of the Peninsula. There's a shot of some scattered shower activity over South Florida Sunday evening, but should be isolated if anything. However, I'll leave a chance in there. Last time I left it out and got burned. I'm not going to finish 2010 on that mistake!
Saturday (New Years Day!): Afternoon clouds. High 79, Low 59.
Sunday: Increasing clouds, isolated evening shower. High 77, Low 60.
TWC: Saturday: Sunny. High 79, Low 57.
Sunday: More clouds, slight chance of a shower. High 76, Low 56.
AW: Saturday: Partly sunny and beautiful (really, beautiful!) High 77, Low 59.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and warm. High 77, Low 60.
NWS: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 60.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 61.
WB: Saturday: Partly sunny. High 77, Low 60.
Sunday: Partly sunny. High 76, Low 60.
Here we see the relatively benign weather over Florida and portions of the Deep South. Most of it will stay away from South Florida, so festivities tonight will be warm and dry for everybody! Well, dry as far as Mother Nature is concerned, your bartender will say otherwise. Happy New Year's Eve readers!
Forecasting is easy
Posted by Ryan
When I was doing the verifications for Naples, I quickly saw that there was only 1 degree of error for the entire 2 day period. The high only hit 90 in Naples yesterday (only) which was shy of the 91 I had in there. Victory seemed to be a in the bag, but Accuweather went ahead and had a perfect temperature forecasts. Those rascals. The dry day on Thursday was the only thing that caused Accuweather any problems.
Actuals: Wednesday - .65 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 92, Low 78
Thursday - High 90, Low 77
Grade: A
Naples, Florida to Kingston, New York
Posted by Ryan
We're taking a trip from the Gulf Coast to the Hudson Valley between Albany and NYC. It's a 1388 mile journey, surprisingly long, if you ask me, and will take us nearly three full days of driving. The first two days will net us only 496 miles, primarily because of our glacial pace of 62mph. I guess grandpa is driving us back from his winter home.
DAY ONE
Part of the reason this drive is so long is that we are following almost the entire Florida Peninsula, which takes about 400 miles on its own. The extra 100 miles will take us to Savannah, Georgia, which is our destination on day one. Models are indicating that the seabreeze will be most active for Florida on the eastern side of the Peninsula tomorrow, which is great news for us, since our route takes us on the Gulf side. We will likely be just fine from Naples to about Ocala. Thunderstorms will be more problematic from then to Gainesville, and becoming more dispersed through Jacksonville and on to Savannah. Of course, this is summer in the southeast, so don't be surprised if a storm does crop up over that tail end of the trip. It happens.
DAY TWO.
A cold front is sweeping through the east tomorrow, and is often the case, the tail end will stall through the eastern Carolinas. The most widespread thunderstorm activity will be in South Carolina, which is good, because it isn't likely to be fully developed as we drive through. Still, the heaviest rain of the day will likely be between Lake Marion in South Carolina and the North Carolina border. After that, we should really dry out as we head through the rest of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Our day will finally end in Ladysmith, Virginia, which is between Richmond and Fredericksburg.
DAY THREE
The next little wave will be rolling into the east coast as we travel through the bustling megalopolis. We should stay dry, but there is a chance at some isolated drizzle and mostly cloudy skies virtually through the whole day. Don't let that deter you though, because the last hour and our arrival in Kingston will be quite lovely.
Naples, Florida
Posted by Ryan
Ah Naples, my home away from home. (I wish)
At 353PM, ET, Naples was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees, despite an onshore flow, and partly cloudy skies, perhaps reflective of the flow. There was very little activity to speak of over the entirety of the Peninsula, and the Gulf and Caribbean were surprisingly quiet as well. There was a convergence of winds north of Naples that may eventually touch off some convection.
With no real tropical forcing anywhere in the Caribbean or locations being monitored for development, there doesn't seem to be much to separate the next two days from any other by the standards of Naples. A weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generate a northerly flow through most of the Florida Peninsula, which will keep things quieter than is typically expected for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow - Isolated afternoon storms, High 92, Low 78
Thursday - Chance of some storms in the afternoon, High 91, Low 77
TWC: Tomorrow - Sun and clouds mixed with a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 92, Low 78
Thursday - Isolated thunderstorms. High 93, Low 78
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 92, Low 78
Thursday - Mostly sunny with an afternoon and evening thunderstorm High 90, Low 77
NWS: Tomorrow - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, High 93, low 79
Thursday - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy High 94, Low 79
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 88, Low 78
Thursday - Partly Sunny with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 79
It should be noted that the text in Weatherbug's forecast doesn't match the numbers. I don't know what happened. Also, since I started this forecast, a storm went up quickly inland from Naples, as I sort of prognosticated. Here is the unusually serene Caribbean satellite.
Sunny south Florida
Posted by Ryan
Our forecast for Naples called for some typically active Floridian weather. Fortunately for them, all the thunderstorms that Florida saw the past two days went up inland, away from Naples and then continued to drift off towards Orlando and Lake Okeechobee. Florida thunderstorms are always tough to pinpoint, but it's never a good idea to beat against them, regardless of what today's verification suggests. The top forecast went to Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday - High 79, Low 64
Wednesday - High 78, Low 69
Grade: A