A good start to the new year
Posted by Ryan
On new year's eve, we were lucky to have two forecasts, including one from Jeff Lyons from WFIE in Evansville, Indiana. The forecast that we will take a look back at, however, is Anthony's forecast for Naples. Naples rang in the new year right, with temperatures near 80 and never dropping below 60. Rain didn't find it's way into one of our most frequent forecast sites over the year's first weekend, making things even better. The National Weather Service started the year with a victory, nosing out Victoria-Weather by not having rain in the forecast.
Actuals: Saturday - High 80, Low 61
Sunday - High 79, Low 61
Grade: B
Naples, Florida
Posted by Anthony
2010 is wrapping up a busy weather year, and we have a large system affecting the Midwest. Blizzard in the Dakotas! Severe Thunderstorms and tornadoes in the Nation's Heartland! Possible flooding rains in the Central Gulf Coast! So where are we forecasting for today? That's right... South Florida. Where pretty much nothing is going on...
At 11:53AM EST, the temperature in Naples, FL was 78 degrees under partly cloudy skies. High pressure over the Southeast is keeping the Florida Peninsula fairly quiet outside of some spotty clouds. Our mega-system over the central US is pushing a cold front towards the east, but that high pressure is doing a fairly good job at slowing down it's progression towards the Sunshine State. The whole tail end of the front pretty much stalls out over northern FL on Sunday, leaving some increased clouds over the rest of the Peninsula. There's a shot of some scattered shower activity over South Florida Sunday evening, but should be isolated if anything. However, I'll leave a chance in there. Last time I left it out and got burned. I'm not going to finish 2010 on that mistake!
Saturday (New Years Day!): Afternoon clouds. High 79, Low 59.
Sunday: Increasing clouds, isolated evening shower. High 77, Low 60.
TWC: Saturday: Sunny. High 79, Low 57.
Sunday: More clouds, slight chance of a shower. High 76, Low 56.
AW: Saturday: Partly sunny and beautiful (really, beautiful!) High 77, Low 59.
Sunday: Mostly sunny and warm. High 77, Low 60.
NWS: Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 60.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 77, Low 61.
WB: Saturday: Partly sunny. High 77, Low 60.
Sunday: Partly sunny. High 76, Low 60.
Here we see the relatively benign weather over Florida and portions of the Deep South. Most of it will stay away from South Florida, so festivities tonight will be warm and dry for everybody! Well, dry as far as Mother Nature is concerned, your bartender will say otherwise. Happy New Year's Eve readers!
Forecasting is easy
Posted by Ryan
When I was doing the verifications for Naples, I quickly saw that there was only 1 degree of error for the entire 2 day period. The high only hit 90 in Naples yesterday (only) which was shy of the 91 I had in there. Victory seemed to be a in the bag, but Accuweather went ahead and had a perfect temperature forecasts. Those rascals. The dry day on Thursday was the only thing that caused Accuweather any problems.
Actuals: Wednesday - .65 inches of rain in thunderstorms, High 92, Low 78
Thursday - High 90, Low 77
Grade: A
Naples, Florida to Kingston, New York
Posted by Ryan
We're taking a trip from the Gulf Coast to the Hudson Valley between Albany and NYC. It's a 1388 mile journey, surprisingly long, if you ask me, and will take us nearly three full days of driving. The first two days will net us only 496 miles, primarily because of our glacial pace of 62mph. I guess grandpa is driving us back from his winter home.
DAY ONE
Part of the reason this drive is so long is that we are following almost the entire Florida Peninsula, which takes about 400 miles on its own. The extra 100 miles will take us to Savannah, Georgia, which is our destination on day one. Models are indicating that the seabreeze will be most active for Florida on the eastern side of the Peninsula tomorrow, which is great news for us, since our route takes us on the Gulf side. We will likely be just fine from Naples to about Ocala. Thunderstorms will be more problematic from then to Gainesville, and becoming more dispersed through Jacksonville and on to Savannah. Of course, this is summer in the southeast, so don't be surprised if a storm does crop up over that tail end of the trip. It happens.
DAY TWO.
A cold front is sweeping through the east tomorrow, and is often the case, the tail end will stall through the eastern Carolinas. The most widespread thunderstorm activity will be in South Carolina, which is good, because it isn't likely to be fully developed as we drive through. Still, the heaviest rain of the day will likely be between Lake Marion in South Carolina and the North Carolina border. After that, we should really dry out as we head through the rest of North Carolina and southern Virginia. Our day will finally end in Ladysmith, Virginia, which is between Richmond and Fredericksburg.
DAY THREE
The next little wave will be rolling into the east coast as we travel through the bustling megalopolis. We should stay dry, but there is a chance at some isolated drizzle and mostly cloudy skies virtually through the whole day. Don't let that deter you though, because the last hour and our arrival in Kingston will be quite lovely.
Naples, Florida
Posted by Ryan
Ah Naples, my home away from home. (I wish)
At 353PM, ET, Naples was reporting a temperature of 91 degrees, despite an onshore flow, and partly cloudy skies, perhaps reflective of the flow. There was very little activity to speak of over the entirety of the Peninsula, and the Gulf and Caribbean were surprisingly quiet as well. There was a convergence of winds north of Naples that may eventually touch off some convection.
With no real tropical forcing anywhere in the Caribbean or locations being monitored for development, there doesn't seem to be much to separate the next two days from any other by the standards of Naples. A weak high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generate a northerly flow through most of the Florida Peninsula, which will keep things quieter than is typically expected for the next couple of days.
Tomorrow - Isolated afternoon storms, High 92, Low 78
Thursday - Chance of some storms in the afternoon, High 91, Low 77
TWC: Tomorrow - Sun and clouds mixed with a slight chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon. High 92, Low 78
Thursday - Isolated thunderstorms. High 93, Low 78
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny with a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 92, Low 78
Thursday - Mostly sunny with an afternoon and evening thunderstorm High 90, Low 77
NWS: Tomorrow - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly cloudy, High 93, low 79
Thursday - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly cloudy High 94, Low 79
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 88, Low 78
Thursday - Partly Sunny with a 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 89, Low 79
It should be noted that the text in Weatherbug's forecast doesn't match the numbers. I don't know what happened. Also, since I started this forecast, a storm went up quickly inland from Naples, as I sort of prognosticated. Here is the unusually serene Caribbean satellite.
Sunny south Florida
Posted by Ryan
Our forecast for Naples called for some typically active Floridian weather. Fortunately for them, all the thunderstorms that Florida saw the past two days went up inland, away from Naples and then continued to drift off towards Orlando and Lake Okeechobee. Florida thunderstorms are always tough to pinpoint, but it's never a good idea to beat against them, regardless of what today's verification suggests. The top forecast went to Weatherbug.
Actuals: Tuesday - High 79, Low 64
Wednesday - High 78, Low 69
Grade: A
Naples, Florida to Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Posted by Ryan
Our trip will take a little under three days as we traverse the suddenly active Southeast. If anything, we'll be headed the 1404 miles to a somewhat less humid area in Oklahoma City. Perhaps we're just interested in shipping oranges to Oklahoma. Anyways, we'll be able to cover 506 miles on the first two day at 63.3mph. So let's box up those oranges!
DAY ONE
A weak band of showers is still moistening the Florida Peninsula, but it's on it's way out of town. We'll likely see some red skies as we wake up, but only partly cloudy skies when we take off. We will be problem free all the way through Florida and then on to Georgia, where we will hop off the main road. Our day will end in Richland, Georgia, which I am sure is a beautiful town south of Columbus.
DAY TWO
The drive will be easy again on Thursday, but not quite as pleasant as the drive on Wednesday. There will be a chance for some showers and thunderstorms as we approach the Memphis area. Call it Holly Springs, Mississippi where we run into some wet weather, which will take us through the Memphis metro. We'll likely be out of it, however, by the time we reach Forrest City, Arkansas. Let's not push our luck though, and call it a day in Carlisle, which is east of Little Rock.
DAY THREE
If, and that's only an if, we see a thunderstorm on Friday, it will likely be between Little Rock and Fort Smith, and there is a decent enough chance that we should be wary that the storms will be strong. It's a well wooded stretch of road through Arkansas, so we probably won't get too much warning when a squall line is coming, not as much as we would in the Plains, so be sure to stay tuned to local radio and not the iPod until we make our way to Sallisaw, where we should be out of the woods all the way to Oklahoma City.
Naples, Florida
Posted by Anthony
At 12:53pm EDT, the temperature in Naples, Florida was 75 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. A lingering cold/stationary front that's been found over the Florida Peninsula and along the Gulf Coast has slowly been weakening the last couple of days, but there will still be a decent amount of instability over the region. An ill-defined disturbance over the Lower MS Valley will slowly trek eastward through the Deep South over the next couple of days, enhancing some of the thunderstorm activity farther north over Florida. Tuesday should see a fair amount of activity over the northern 2/3rds of the state especially when the sea breezes converge over the interior part of the state, but Naples could see a few scattered showers still make it down their way. Wednesday sees that aforementioned area of low pressure become a bit better defined towards the Carolinas, giving them a good chance of some stronger thunderstorms during the day. A weak area of high pressure looks to build back over Florida and into the Central Gulf behind this system and keep southern Florida mostly on the dry side, but there will still be a few scattered showers popping up during the afternoon. Overall it should be a good couple of days for beach goers, but Tuesday will definitely be the day to keep an eye on the sky for more scattered activity.
Tuesday: 50% chance of scattered showers/thunderstorm. High 80, Low 62.
Wednesday. 20% chance of a scattered shower, maybe an isolated thunderstorm. High 79, Low 65.
TWC: Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 80, Low 64.
Wednesday: 30% chance of isolated thunderstorms. High 77, Low 66.
AW: Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 80, Low 61.
Wednesday: Isolated shower/thundershower possible. High 78, Low 65.
NWS: Tuesday: 20% chance of showers. High 79, Low 64.
Wednesday: 20% chance of showers. High 79, Low 65.
WB: Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. High 79, Low 64.
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. High 79, Low 66.
Some moderate showers are found well off to the north of Naples and off over the Gulf. Some more of these might draw closer tomorrow.
A 23-hour day?
Posted by Anthony
Our competition all had a chance of showers or thunderstorms late Sunday night for Naples, we figured that they would hold off to the east. If our days lasted 23 hours, we would have stormed (no pun intended) to victory! Sadly, a rogue thunderstorm decided to move into the area after 11pm on Sunday, dropping a quick 4/10ths of an inch before midnight. Curses! AW wound up taking the top spot, with no added embellishment from Joe Bastardi.
Saturday: High 81, Low 55
Sunday: 0.42" of rain in a thunderstorm. High 81, Low 66
Forecast grade: B
Naples, Florida to Beaumont, Texas
Posted by Ryan
Today's journey will wrap us around the Gulf Coast for a couple of days. It's a 1054 mile drive, and we will be able to net 533 miles on the first day thanks to a rapid pace of 66mph. Making good time, having a good time. Or something.
DAY ONE
An area of low pressure is developing over the center of the country, and doing so rapidly. Our first day will take place entirely in Florida, and it's a matter of timing for when that cold front comes crashing into the Florida Peninsula. I say we will see some passing clouds, maybe an occasional area of showers until Ocala, when we are due for the initial wave of heavy thunderstorms. We stand the chance of seeing some heavy weather until at least Live Oak, maybe even all the way to Tallahassee. In Florida, these strong thunderstorms are typically windy systems with occasional small tornadoes, so be on the lookout for that, and keep your hands on the wheel. The day will end in Caryville, which is in the Panhandle.
DAY TWO
After the heavy weather on our first day in the car, it's going to be a rather pleasant drive on Monday. Behind a cold front, we'll have a west-northwest flow that will cut the stifling heat that one might expect along the Gulf Coast. Even the humidity will be down somewhat as we arrive in sunny, beautiful Beaumont.
