Tag Archives: Mobile

Stifled on the Coast

It seemed like a cool forecast for Mobile, but actually, forecasters were universally calling for seasonably average temperatures. That was how it played out on Tuesday, but despite a vigorous northerly flow, the coast never cleared out yesterday. As a result, the high was only 46 yesterday, nearly 10 degrees off the pace anticipated by models and forecasters alike. Just in time for heavy rain that is ongoing there right now (there was none reported, despite the overcast yesterday), and will likely continue through the afternoon. Hopefully some clearing tomorrow will give residents some Vitamin D. Forecast.io had the coolest forecast and as a result won the day in Mobile rather easily. They have turned it on since a rough start to the year.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 61, Low 51
Wednesday – High 46, Low 42

Grade: C-D

Mobile, Alabama

We will head to the Gulf Coast to begin a fairly busy week of forecasting here at Victoria-Weather.

At 1053AM, CT, Mobile was reporting a temperature of 62 degrees. Aiports a little further away from the Gulf than the downtown location were reporting a temperature in the low 70s. Overcast skies smothered the southeastern US, though there was a window around Mobile Bay, and downtown Mobile was reporting only partly cloudy skies. A pair of merging waves along the eastern Seaboard were responsible for the lingering moisture in Mobile.
There is nothing that will scour southern Alabama out through the day today, and the region will be generally cloudy with drizzle. Aloft, the jet currently runs through northern Mexico, and is shifting east through the Gulf. Through the day tomorrow, it will lead to continued instability and the threat for clouds and light rain tomorrow. As the jet moves into the Bight of Georgia late tomorrow, however, it will begin to lead to some cyclogenesis which, for one day, will lead to clearing. The low developing off the Carolina Coast will be weak, but it will induce a northerly flow through Alabama on Wednesday, and a dry, mostly sunny day. The northerly flow induced by this cyclogenesis will lead to a non standard day tomorrow as cooler air cycles in.
Tomorrow – Overcast with some light rain, High 58, Low 44
Wednesday – Mostly sunny, High 57, Low 38

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 59, Low 45
Wednesday – Cloudy, High 58, Low 42

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler with a little rain High 57, Low 43
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy High 55, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of rain after 7am. Cloudy, High 60, Low 47
Wednesday – A 20 percent chance of rain after 7am. Mostly cloudy, High 58, Low 41

WB: Tomorrow – Cooler…cloudy. Slight chance of rain. High 60, Low 46
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. High 58, Low 40

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Rain High 59, Low 46
Wednesday – Mostly Cloudy with Areas of Rain High 59, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Overcast throughout the day. High 58, Low 44
Wednesday – Overcast throughout the day. High 53, Low 41

There is some disagreement over whether or not there will be rain in the near future for Mobile. We can all agree on a bit of drear for the city though. This satellite image won’t look much better by Thursday.
Mobile

Wenatchee, Washington to Mobile, Alabama

Five days is the amount of time it will take us to get from the Cascades to the Gulf Coast. It’s not a trip with a nice north to south interstate to spend all of our time on, so there are will be quite a few twists and turns. The two towns are 2652 miles apart, and despite all the twists and turns, we will be able to move at a pace of 63.3mph. The first days of this cross country adventure will have a goal distance of about 506 miles. There is a lot of driving ahead of us, so I vote that we get cracking on it.

DAY ONE
Wenatchee
Wenatchee will be, and usually is, pretty nice tomorrow as we depart. High pressure and a summery feel will be in the air as we make our way through Washington and Oregon, but unfortunately, we have an upper level trough camped out in the Great Basin. Today, most of hte moisture is hung up in the Sierras, but by the time we reach Idaho, some shower activity will be kicked north. Expect the chance for rain from Nampa to Bliss, which is between Mountain Home and Twins Falls, and our destination for night one of this lengthy excursion.

DAY TWO
The upper level wave is going to be moving quick enough that it will be out of the mountains before we are. There is a decent chance that we don’t see any rain at all on Thursday, but it will become increasingly likely we will see clouds as we head deeper into the day, thanks to the turbulence generated by the wave and a little bit of old fashioned diurnal heating. I and about 75% sure we will be dry when we check in to Sinclair, Wyoming, which is just to the east of Rawlins.

DAY THREE
Now here is where things get dicey. The lee trough is going to be active. Sure, it isn’t the classic set up for thunderstorms, and some model guidance is way to aggressive with precipitation, given where the air is being drawn from, but it’s looking like a good set up for Low Precipitation Supercells later this week in the plains. They are discrete cells, so there won’t be a ton rain everywhere in eastern Colorado, but if we do encounter a cell, we will likely see strong winds, might see some large hail, and at the very least, we will probably see a tornado chaser or two. LP supercells are always the big draw, because funnel clouds are so well framed, and there isn’t much for them to wreck in western Kansas and eastern Colorado. Activity will really start to pop after about 4pm and will be most likely as we approach Kanorado on the Colorado-Kansas border, but there will be a chance for more isolated storms pretty much anywhere in Colorado. Oh, Wyoming will be fine. Kanorado is our Friday night destination.

DAY FOUR
Model guidance is still suggesting some showers and storms through western Texas even into Saturday morning. I ain’t buying it. Sure, there will be some debris clouds leftover from collapsed showers and storms, but I don’t think it will be stormy until after we have been driving for a while, and even then, it will be pretty scattered, mostly as we head south from Salina to Wichita. After that, we will free and clear through northern Oklahoma. We’ll shut it down for the day in Tulsa.

DAY FIVE
The low is going to meekly head into Canada, but before it does that, it will start to initiate a southeasterly flow off of the Gulf through Mobile and the southeast. This will mean it will be steamy when we arrive, and rather foggy and cloudy in the morning before we get there. Don’t be dissapointed that will likely be pretty murky when we wake up at our destination on Memorial Day. Sunday, though, will be a great day for driving.

Mobile

Carbon copies

With persistent sun and winds switching directions, surely it made sense that the temperatures would maybe get a little warmer on the second consecutive day of sun, and the overnight temperatures would cool off given the dry air infiltrating the region from the north. Nope. The high and low in Mobile on Sunday and Monday were exactly the same. Perhaps that’s why 4 outlets, Victoria-Weather, the Weather Service, Weatherbug and Weathernation all ended up with exactly the same score. The other two outlets, Accuweather and The Weather Channel, well, they had the same score as well.
Actuals: Sunday, High 84, Low 60
Monday – High 84, Low 60

Grade: B

Mobile, Alabama to Flint, Michigan

Let us embark on a 1,038 mile road trip, from the Gulf Coast to the Great Lakes! It will take us a couple of days to cover, so we better get a move on!

Mobile

DAY ONE

As we depart the Gulf Coast, a large area of high pressure is parked over the Deep South, keeping a weak system well off to the north over the Great Lakes as it scoots through. Some clouds will pop up during the afternoon hours, but generally it’ll be a very nice day as we travel northward past Montgomery, Birmingham, and Nashville before we eventually end our day in Bowling Green, KY.

DAY TWO

High pressure continues to escort us northward out of Kentucky! Some increased clouds are expected in the afternoon as we trek north of a stationary boundary that seems to be camping out over the Ohio Valley, but dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the trip as we head through Louisville, Indianapolis, and Fort Wayne before making our way through southern Michigan into Flint!

flint

Mobile, Alabama

It was a very bad week in the southern United States. Just down the road from Mobile, Pensacola received 2 1/2 feet of rain, which led to devastating flooding problems. What do the next few days have in store?

At 1155AM, CT, Mobile was reporting a temperature of 75 degrees with clear skies and a brisk northwest wind. The tail of a cold front lies across the Florida Peninsula, inducing the northwesterly flow, but generally, high pressure is in control with a weak ridge building across the Gulf of Mexico.
The surface high pressure will drift slowly to the east through the period, ensuring that flow will transition from brisk and offshore to tranquil over the next 48 hours. Return flow will arrive along the Texas coast by the end of the period, but sunny skies and great beach weather dominate the forecast in Mobile Bay.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, low 56
Monday – Sunny, High 85, low 59

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 82, Low 60
Monday – Sunny High 81, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with a full day of sunshine High 85, Low 54
Monday – Seasonably warm with a full day of sunshine High 85, Low 60

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 55
Monday – Sunny, High 84, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 55
Monday – Sunny, High 84, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 84, Low 55
Monday – Sunny, High 84, Low 61

Wow, three outlets giving us the exact same forecast. Here is a very empty forecast.
Mobile

Nip and Tuck

Mobile was a tight forecast (if you realize how erroneously I typed in Weatherbug’s forecast. The high/low were supposed to be 55 and 37). The difference was a forecast for some light drizzle yesterday with a weak boundary that moved through. Instead, that system meant a reinforcing dose of northerly flow and some clearing skies. It was a narrow victory, but one that The Weather Channel could claim for itself.
Actuals: Friday – High 63, Low 37
Saturday – No rain, High 54, Low 34

Grade: B

Mobile, Alabama

Just as it begins to warm up here in the Upper Midwest, they have cooled down along the Gulf Coast. How long will that last? I bet people coming ashore on the foundering cruise ship will enjoy some clean crisp air.

At 356PM, CT, Mobile was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with cool skies. A push of cooler continental air was being drawn south as a weak low was developing north of the Yucatan along a weak, nearly stationary front. This was both stanching moisture flow to the north and inducing the northerly flow that was producing cooler temperatures.
The low will continue to follow the boundary, moving over Florida and opening the Gulf again. A secondary trough aloft is going to move south, bringing even colder weather to the area. As is often the case when there is a boundary over the Gulf Coast, expect low clouds and fog in the Mobile area on Saturday morning, with a chance for some light drizzle mixing in. Cooler than normal temperatures will follow, but with clearing skies.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 65, Low 38
Saturday – Morning fog and spotty drizzle, High 55, Low 39

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 63, Low 39
Saturday – Partly Cloudy High 52, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 67, Low 38
Saturday – Breezy and cooler with intervals of clouds and sunshine; a stray shower in the afternoon High 58, Low 35

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 67, Low 40
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 55, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 68, Low 39
Saturday – Cooler…cloudy High 66, Low 57

It’s always fun when we have different precipitation forecasts, isn’t it? Take a look at the satellite to see the scope of the boundary, and look for the little hook in the clouds north of the Yucatan.
Mobile

Mobile, Alabama to Blacksburg, Virginia

We’re on for a nice little day and a half trek to western Virginia. If it weren’t for the fact that we are in the furthest corner of Alabama to begin our voyage, we probably could have done this whole thing in a day. As it stands, we’ll net the 744 miles between Mobile and Blacksburg at a pace of 64.1mph, which ain’t bad. The first day will thus cover 512 of the necessary miles.

DAY ONE

An area of low pressure is slowly moving up the Appalachians from about West Virginia, it’s present location. It’s going to inch towards New England over he next 48 hours or so. Behind this front? High pressure and lots of it. Expect delightful conditions with northerly winds keeping temperatures from being oppressive in Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. The day’s drive will end in beautiful Knoxville, Tennessee, leaving just a few hours of mountain driving for Thursday.

DAY TWO
The low will break down over northern Virginia overnight Wednesday into Thursday and reform well away from our route for Thursday. This will end up being a perfectly timed little jaunt through the wilderness of the southeast. Virginia awaits!

Mobile, Alabama

It’s been very quiet along the Gulf Coast, just in time for our two forecasts there in Houston and Mobile. Not bad.

At 1056PM, CT, Mobile was reporting a temperature of 55 degrees with clear skies.High pressure over the center of the country was producing a bit of moderate northerly flow, which was allowing temperatures to remain cool and the skies to remain clear.
The next 2 days will remain equally as pleasant, with two bullseyes of cutoff low pressure straddling the country, allowing for beautiful weather in the center.
Tomorrow- Sunny, High 74, low 46
Wednesday – Continued sunny weather, High 78, Low 48

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny high 77, Low 49
Wednesday – Abundant sunshine. High 80, Low 50

AW: Tomorrow – Bright sunshine High 77, Low 48
Wednesday – Bright sunshine High 80, low 50

NWS: Tomorrow- Sunny High 76, Low 47
Wednesday – Sunny, High 80, Low 49

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 76, Low 47
Wednesday – Sunny, High 80, Low 49

A look at the satellite shows very little actually going on over land.