Tag Archives: McAllen

Above the forecast, below average

Our look at the weather for south Texas at the end of the weekend promised a cool down in McAllen after a cold front pushed into the Gulf of Mexico. It did indeed cool down, but temperatures resisted dropping all the way down to the range predicted by most of our outlets. Still, the average high in McAllen, even this late into the year, is in the upper 80s, and there was a bit of a break from that, at the very least. Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service put together the top forecasts.
Actuals: Monday – Trace of rain in the early morning, Hgh 85, Low 63
Tuesday – High 86, Low 57

Grade: C-D

McAllen, Texas

Our trip today will be down to the southernmost point of Texas, right across the Rio Grande from Mexico. Weather can be fairly static throughout the summer, but with winter approaching, perhaps there is some intrigue in McAllen.

At 353PM, CT, McAllen was reporting a temperature of 93 degrees with clear skies. After the tail of a cold front moved through earlier today, there is still a great deal of convective activity off the coast from Brownsville, but a vorticity maximum now over the Gulf is inducing a brisk northerly flow, helping the 90 degree weather be a bit more bearable.
High pressure will build into the region through the early part of next week, even as the vorticity maximum sinks towards the Yucatan and deepens as an area of low pressure. This will simply mean a continued dry and somewhat cooler northeasterly flow.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy early, then sunny, HIgh 82, Low 65
Tuesday – Sunny, High 85, Low 56

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 80, Low 66
Tuesday – A mainly sunny sky.  High 84, Low 56

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy, less humid and not as warm with clouds breaking for some sun High 80, Low 67
Tuesday – Plenty of sun High 83, Low 56

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 82, Low 66
Tuesday – Sunny, High 85, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning then clearing. High 78. Low 70
Tuesday – Sunny, High 81, Low 58

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 82, Low 66
Tuesday – Mostly sunny, High 84, Low 57

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy until afternoon. High 80, Low 64
Tuesday – Clear throughout the day. High 82, Low 57

Here is the radar, showing a very large batch of thunderstorms just off the coast. Otherwise, it looks really nice over south Texas. 

Meteorologists can take the heat

Specifically, meteorologists forecasting for McAllen, Texas generally did a very good job accounting for some 90 degree temperatures. It wasn’t a huge change for south Texas, but it was definitely the warmest we had seen to date on Victoria-Weather. Those high numbers didn’t scare us off, though, as Victoria-Weather and WeatherNation led the way with some very good forecasts, erring only by a couple of degrees, with almost everyone else clustering right behind us. Forecast.io was a little TOO enthusiastic about those warm temps and finished well off the pace.
Actuals: Sunday – High 90, Low 70
Monday – High 92, Low 70

Grade: A-C

McAllen, Texas

Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 70
Monday – Sunny, High 93, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Becoming windy during the afternoon. High 92, Low 70
Monday – A mainly sunny sky. High 93, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, becoming windier and warm High 92, Low 70
Monday – Partly sunny and very warm High 93, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 92, Low 69
Monday – Mostly sunny, High 91, Low 70

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy, Partly cloudy, High 89, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 72

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 91, Low 70

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the morning, continuing until evening. High 96, Low 70
Monday – Partly cloudy starting overnight, continuing until afternoon. High 98, low 70

Whoa, that is a very warm forecast by FIO. Hot and sunny seems to be the consensus, though!

FIO: Tomorrow –

McAllen, Texas to Bay City, Michigan

This seems like it will be a fairly dramatic change, heading from far southern Texas
to the shores of Lake Huron, but its been cloudy, rainy and cool in south Texas for the last several days. It won’t be as crazy a change as we may be anticipating. The drive will take about 3 1/2 days and cover 1759 miles. Our pace will be in the neighborhood of 65mph, or about 520 miles a day. There is open road to cover, so let’s cover it.

DAY ONE (Thursday)
An area of low pressure developing at the surface off the coast of about Victoria or Corpus Christi will be bringing clouds and a little bit of rain to far southern Texas overnight tonight. It will gradually pull away from the coast through the day tomorrow, giving us a cool, dry drive through Texas. You can’t really ask for better conditions than this, especially since the sun will be out to melt any bridge frost that might develop north of Austin. We’ll call it a day after we are in the Dallas area, stopping in Garland on the northwest side of town for the night.

DAY TWO (Friday)
A warm ridge of high pressure will be filtering into the center of the country this weekend, and we will be driving right into the teeth of it. The warm air will make for sunny and pleasant conditions as we navigate our way through Arkansas and into the Bootheel of Missouri, where we will stop in the small town of Portageville to call it a night.

DAY THREE (Saturday)
It seems like this leg of the trip is longer than the others, but I triple checked my math. Indeed, we will make it through Illinois, Northern Indiana and into southwest Michigan. It might just feel like it is longer after driving through St Louis and Chicago. Even with great driving conditions, those are tough towns to drive through. We’ll make it to Paw Paw in southwest Michigan by the end of the day Saturday.

DAY FOUR (Sunday)
A clipper feature will be swinging through the Great Lakes overnight Saturday, and a northwest wind will be blowing off of Lake Michigan by Sunday morning. This could lead to some snow as we leave Paw Paw, but won’t last very long, even wrapping up by the time we reach Kalamazoo. It will likely be fairly cloudy as we finish off the drive, though some guidance suggests that we could encounter even more snow upon arriving in Bay City.
Bay City

Keeping it cool in McAllen

Cool is, of course, a relative term. While I think looking at the radar for 3 hours a day is pretty cool, my fiance disagrees. Likewise for temperatures. Sure, it was in the mid 80s to end the week in McAllen, but that in turn was a few degrees off the pace of what was in the forecast for many outlets. The forecast lows dropped off a degree or two lower than was forethought by almost everyone. The Weather Channel didn’t have such issues, and knocked the forecast out of the park. They kept it cool.
Actuals: Thursday – High 84, low 54
Friday – High 86, Low 53

Grade: A

Casper, Wyoming to McAllen, Texas

This is a pretty incredible trip. Three days in the car, covering 1437 miles, and the truly major metro area we will traverse is Denver. Expect dust as we move along at 63.7mph, and some camping in the wilderness as we end our days after about 510 miles a day. So let’s see the High Plains and not much else.

The back side of a trough is butting up against the Front Range. There won’t be a great deal of moisture available, but it’s the right combination of features, brisk upper level flow and undulating terrain, to produce a little bit of instability. Don’t expect it to really impact our day, as occasional clouds and sun showers can be expected anywhere from Charlotte to our day’s destination of Springfield, in southeastern Colorado.

Our day will be much dryer on Friday than it was on Thursday. There will be a lee trough that develops nearly on top of Springfield, where we will start our day, but shower activity isn’t going to manifest itself until we are into the Texas Panhandle, which will be dry during the week. Our day will end in Eden, Texas, which is south-southwest of Abilene. I checked, they have a place called the Slumber Inn for us to crash at.

There is still quite a bit of driving to do between Eden and McAllen. Texas is a big state. All of it will be dry and mostly sunny, though, and we shouldn’t have any issues getting through the day, barring some serious traffic issues in San Antonio.

McAllen, Texas

Our forecast today takes us to the deepest part of south Texas, within sight of Mexico. What do we have to look forward to?

At 1053AM, ET, McAllen was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Overcast skies were being reported and noted on satellite across far southern Texas, essentially from the Padre Islands to the Rio Grande, as a high amplitude upper level trough digs into Texas. Clearing skies will emerge this afternoon as the trough progresses east.
The trough is going to be forced out quickly thanks to a short wavelength. Unseasonably cool temperatures are going to be jettisoned by emerging, warm dry air and semi tropical stability. While temperatures won’t be unbearable, they will be significantly warmer by the end of the week.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 83, Low 55
Friday – Sunny and even warmer. High 88, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 83, Low 55
Friday – Sunny, High 86, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant and warmer with plenty of sunshine High 85, Low 56
Friday – Pleasant with plenty of sunshine High 87, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 87, Low 55
Friday – Sunny High 88, Low 57

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 87, Low 55
Friday – Sunny High 88, Low 57

WN: Tomorrow – Sunny High 88, Low 55
Friday – Mostly Sunny High 88, Low 56

If that doesn’t sound like awesome weather, I don’t know what else to tell you. Satellite shows the last gasp of clouds in the area.

A taste of autumn

We are all seeing cooling temperatures and a damper pattern, and that blanket statement includes McAllen in the deep south of Texas. Temperatures didn’t even hit 70 on Thursday, which seems pretty incredible. A day in south Texas that doesn’t even reach 70? It’s not even winter! Never fear, though, because it shot up to 88 on Friday. The Weather Channel had the best forecast for a McAllen that didn’t fall into my personal expectations.
Actuals: Thursday – .03 inches of rain, High 69, Low 64
Friday – High 88, Low 67

Grade: C

McAllen, Texas

We are headed deep into the southern reaches of Texas this morning to take care of this forecast.

At 1053AM, CT, McAllen was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 84 degrees. A very well evidenced cold front was noted between Falfurrias and Alice, with a temperature dropping more than 10 degrees north of the boundary. Satellite demonstrated that the front was losing most of its intensity over south Texas at the upper levels, and jet analysis shows that the base of the trough is in eastern Colorado, and the further southward advance of the boundary seems unlikely.
There will be a chance that the southerly flow off of the Gulf ahead of the dissipating boundary will produce clouds and maybe a bit of drizzle overnight tonight. A wave along the trough will bring some development over the central Plains by tomorrow morning, which will encourage more southwesterly flow tomorrow. The upper level trough will continue to remain in place over the center of the country, and this will mean a persistent, moisture laden southerly flow even as the wave over the central Plains dampens. For a time, there will be some clear skies without clouds or rain while the flow becomes briefly laminar north of Texas, but this will occur overnight Thursday to Friday. Even though cold air will not move into McAllen, temperatures may be off several degrees tomorrow because of the cloudy conditions.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance for some light rain, High 80, Low 67
Friday – Mostly cloudy, with some rain in the afternoon, High 85, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Few Showers High 76, Low 66
Friday – Isolated T-Storms High 89, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler with a shower in places High 76, Low 67
Friday – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 85, Low 67

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers. High 75, Low 66
Friday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 69

WBL Tomorrow – Cloudy…cooler. Scattered showers High 76, Low 65
Friday – Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. high 85, Low 69

Obviously, I am going warmer for a high tomorrow. I just don’t think that the cold air has much room to further south into McAllen, and even if it does, a return flow and southern latitude will overcome. Take a look at the satellite, and note the milky clouds. Not much organization there.