We are headed deep into the southern reaches of Texas this morning to take care of this forecast.
At 1053AM, CT, McAllen was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 84 degrees. A very well evidenced cold front was noted between Falfurrias and Alice, with a temperature dropping more than 10 degrees north of the boundary. Satellite demonstrated that the front was losing most of its intensity over south Texas at the upper levels, and jet analysis shows that the base of the trough is in eastern Colorado, and the further southward advance of the boundary seems unlikely.
There will be a chance that the southerly flow off of the Gulf ahead of the dissipating boundary will produce clouds and maybe a bit of drizzle overnight tonight. A wave along the trough will bring some development over the central Plains by tomorrow morning, which will encourage more southwesterly flow tomorrow. The upper level trough will continue to remain in place over the center of the country, and this will mean a persistent, moisture laden southerly flow even as the wave over the central Plains dampens. For a time, there will be some clear skies without clouds or rain while the flow becomes briefly laminar north of Texas, but this will occur overnight Thursday to Friday. Even though cold air will not move into McAllen, temperatures may be off several degrees tomorrow because of the cloudy conditions.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a chance for some light rain, High 80, Low 67
Friday – Mostly cloudy, with some rain in the afternoon, High 85, Low 70
TWC: Tomorrow – Few Showers High 76, Low 66
Friday – Isolated T-Storms High 89, Low 67
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and cooler with a shower in places High 76, Low 67
Friday – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 85, Low 67
NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers. High 75, Low 66
Friday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 85, Low 69
WBL Tomorrow – Cloudy…cooler. Scattered showers High 76, Low 65
Friday – Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. high 85, Low 69
Obviously, I am going warmer for a high tomorrow. I just don’t think that the cold air has much room to further south into McAllen, and even if it does, a return flow and southern latitude will overcome. Take a look at the satellite, and note the milky clouds. Not much organization there.