Tag Archives: Little Rock

Forecast goes a Little awry

It appeared that our forecast for Little Rock on Friday was going to take us to the outer periphery of the ultimately deadly system that clobbered the southeastern United States. Things got a bit more intense than anyone forecast on Friday. Ultimately, there was a high risk that verified in Georgia and Florida on Sunday, but before that, there were two lobes of moderate risk, including one that stretched into Arkansas. There were a few tornadoes down around the El Dorado area, but fortunately, none of the severe stuff got into Little Rock. Nevertheless, they had a bit more than anyone around here bargained for. The Weather Channel seemed as though they were destined for a complete bust of a forecast, but ended up having the top forecast for the weekend, despite not filling their hourlies all the way through the end of the day Sunday.
Actuals: Saturday – .16 of rain/thunder, High 69, Low 45
Sunday – .28 inches of rain/thunder, High 56, Low 49

Grade B-D

Little Rock, Arkansas to Lawton, Oklahoma

I would definitely say that this short road trip is best taken tomorrow than today, what with severe weather pummeling southern Arkansas tonight, with tornadoes south of Pine Bluff, near El Dorado. Our drive to the relatively calm Oklahoma will take about 6 hours while we cover 419 miles. The drive is not as the crow flies, which is so we can hop on the interstate and travel at a pace of 68.9mph  down I-40.

Low pressure presently causing severe weather in southern Arkansas won’t be getting much weaker overnight, and the center of circulation will track over the state through morning hours. Fortunately, by tomorrow morning the threat for severe storms will have moved on to the Carolinas, but heavy rain will be a strong possibility through Fort Smith, with some lighter showers continuing until we reach the Checotah exit in Oklahoma, just before we cross Lake Eufaula. Rain through central Oklahoma will take it’s time in exiting, but through Oklahoma City and on to Lawton, I suspect we will be in good shape.

Idaho Falls, Idaho to Little Rock, Arkansas

We’re off to Little Rock on a three day trek through some stretches of land that are a bit less traveled. Our drive will cover only 1549 miles, and will last 3 days, but those days will be driven at a pace of 69.1mph, or 552.8mph. OK, yeah, that’s pretty good. Day three will be shorter, which is good, because there might actually be traffic there.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

A broad upper level trough the western part of the country is going to be bringing some moisture to the Rockies, but as it does so, it will be dissipating rather swiftly. Moisture won’t be able to move east beyond the peaks of the Rockies. Fortunately, we will be able to do so. We will see some flurries around Idaho Falls as we leave, and it will be a possibility until we hit Bondurant in Wyoming, on the eastern slope of the Yellowstone mountains. Wyoming will then otherwise remain dry, with some unusually high clouds for this time of year. We’ll make it south of Fort Collins to the town of Johnstown on Saturday night. Lee troughing will be coming to Colorado overnight, with low pressure emerging around Colorado Springs overnight. What will this mean for Sunday and Monday?

DAY TWO (Sunday)
That low developing in southeast Colorado will really take off overnight, and will do a good job of pulling in cool crisp air into the Plains. We’ll cover easter Colorado and most of Kansas under sunny skies with a bit of a chill to the air. We’ll stop for the day in Wichita, where they will be drying out after a bit of early rain.

DAY THREE (Monday)
That dry air will filter into the Ozarks and on to central Arkansas as the low shifts further to the east. There is always a bit of haze in the Ozarks, so as we pass Fort Smith, there may be a bit of visibility restriction, but the rest of the drive to the state capital will be just fine. We’ll arrive in Little Rock with nary a concern.

Little Rock, Arkansas

Arkansas, to me, seems like one of the more forgotten states in the union, wedged between Texas and Tennessee, such that it is. It’s naturally beautiful, and on the day of the inauguration of the 45th president, it is home of the 42nd.

At 853AM, CT, Little Rock was reporting a temperature of 57 degrees with overcast skies and a brisk south wind. While there is a sharp trough pivoting through Texas today, the moisture and clouds over central Arkansas are actually being folded into a lobe of instability rotating rapidly around a broader upper level feature in the Midwest, and will shift into the Great Lakes by day’s end.
A developing feature moving out of the Gulf into the Southeast is going to bring strong to severe thunderstorms from Louisiana into Mississippi and Tennessee overnight and into the day tomorrow. The northwestern flank of precipitation will graze southeastern Arkansas, likely leaving Little Rock dry. This is associated with a surface perturbation, however, while a broader upper level feature will move into the region early on Sunday. It is this feature that will make for some steady rain throughout Sunday afternoon.
Tomorrow – Passing clouds, High 66, Low 51
Sunday – Showers, becoming steady in the evening. Getting colder, High 57, low 43

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies during the morning hours will become overcast in the afternoon. A stray severe thunderstorm is possible. High 69, Low 51
Sunday – Thunderstorms likely, especially in the morning…and becoming windy. high 57, Low 52
AW: Tomorrow – Mild with clouds breaking for some sun High 67, Low 51
Sunday – Cooler with periods of rain; breezy in the afternoon High 58, Low 46

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Increasing clouds High 69, low 55
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, High 59, Low, 46

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 64, Low 50
Sunday – Becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. Cooler. Showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 57, Low 46

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. High 70, Low 55
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely, High 59, Low 55

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain in the afternoon and evening. High 67, Low 49
Sunday – Rain in the afternoon and evening. High 58, Low 44

Ouch, those without the full hourly forecast are going to get dinged. It will cool off sharply Sunday night in Little Rock

 

Everyone’s a loser!

I couldn’t figure out some forecasts when we posted the outlook for Little Rock. There was rain in some forecasts and not in others, and the day that the rain was to fall was different for everyone. It turns out that the correct forecast was to include rain both Monday and Tuesday. Nobody had that in their forecast. It came down to who had the best temperature forecast, since the precipitation forecast was such a bust. In that regard, the forecast wasn’t half bad, particularly for WeatherNation, the winners in Little Rock.
Actuals: Monday – trace of rain, High 78, Low 64
Tuesday – Trace of rain, High 82, Low 66

Grade: B

Little Rock, Arkansas

Off to the center of Arkansas today. How will the beginning of the week play out in Little Rock?

At 1253PM, CT, Little Rock was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The clouds across Little Rock were a part of a narrow band through the center of the state, and the rest of Arkansas was generally clear. Synoptically, the region was seeing a weak pressure gradient, but wasn’t really under high pressure. An upper level trough was swinging through the Upper Midwest, and a tropical wave over the western Gulf of Mexico was disorganized enough to help produce widespread showers across the Gulf.
Some of that moisture is expected to be drawn north by the upper level trough, but the cold air within the trough won’t sink far enough south to really trigger any significant precipitation. Still, as the boundary at the leading edge of the trough moves into Arkansas on Tuesday, it will dredge up a few clouds and the chance for some light showers, making for a bit of a bleak day.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 84, Low 60
Tuesday – Overcast with a chance for drizzle, High 84, Low 66

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy High 83, Low 61
Tuesday – Mostly Sunny High 84, Low 67

AW: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 81, Low 61
Tuesday – Partly sunny High 84, Low 66

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 82, Low 63
Tuesday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, High 84, Low 66

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy High 82, low 62
Tuesday – Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85, Low 65

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy High 82, Low 63
Tuesday – Partly Cloudy with Isolated Storms High 82, Low 66

I’m confused by a couple of forecasts. It really doesn’t look like moisture will really begin to be excised from atmosphere until Tuesday morning, so I don’t know why Accuweather has the rainy day forecasts backwards. Here is the satellite at present, showing no signs of imprending drear.
Little Rock

A recovering Little Rock cools off

Things have been fairly quiet weatherwise since what has now been determined to be an EF-3 tornado moved through the west and north metropolitan area of Little Rock. Temperatures cooled off significantly even from Tuesday to Wednesday. It was only 61 degrees as a high on Thursday, with mostly sunny skies. It’s good weather to work outdoors, but I’m sure many people in Mayflower and Vilonia would prefer if there wasn’t so much work to be done. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast.
Actuals: Tuesday – Trace of rain, High 74, Low 53
Wednesday – High 61, Low 46

Grade: A

Little Rock, Arkansas to Wichita Falls, Texas

We have a 1 day trip from Arkansas to north Texas. The state of Arkansas, of course was devastated by tornadoes on Sunday evening, notably a large tornado that hit the west and north metro of Little Rock. Our route won’t be taking us through any of these impacted areas, but that doesn’t mean, it won’t be any less on our mind. It’s under 7 hours between the two terminuses of our route, and 411 miles. This will result in a 61mph average speed.

littlerock

The weather for our Wednesday drive will end up being quite nice. Expect very dry air to be cycled into the route from the southern Plains. Temepratures will be a little bit cooler than seasonable, but with the sunny skies, it will likey feel pretty warm in the car. Expect a need to roll down the windows, and good conditions to hang out outdoors in Wichita Falls.
Wichita Falls

Little Rock, Arkansas

As Im sure you heard by now, Arkansas was hit hard by a tornado yesterday, a twister that ran from Little Rock’s west metro northeast by about 50 miles. The storm has killed more than a dozen people, and will lead to a massive cleanup. Let’s explore how their forecast will look through Wednesday.

At 1153AM, CT, Little Rock was reporting partly cloudy skies with a temperature of 73 degrees. The initial trough that has produced the awful weather from Sunday night is now generating showers over southeastern Arkansas, with the severe weather already moving on to Mississippi. Fortunately, the remainder of the day today looks as though it will stay dry and fairly warm, but a little bit breezy.
The low that brought the terrible weather to the region last night, and will bring more to the southeast today is a vast, recycling low, which is tapping into successive waves of cooler air. Another cool boundary, likely what I would call the system’s cold front, will move through the region with the upper level jet from tomorrow morning through the afternoon. It will not be strong, and the atmosphere will be worked over to the point that anything more than light rain is unlikely. Wednesday will continue to be windy, and it may be mostly cloudy, but the threat for rain, let alone strong thunderstorms, will have passed as the system will begin to cycle in dry air from the southern Plains.
Tomorrow – Chance of showers, otherwise mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 52
Wednesday – Cooler but dry, High 63, Low 46

TWC: Tomorrow – Isolated T-Storms High 72, Low 55
Wednesday – Mostly Cloudy High 62, Low 48

AW: Tomorrrow – Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; breezy in the afternoon High 75, Low 53
Wednesday – Cooler with times of clouds and sun High 64, Low 48

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 53
Wednesday – Partly sunny, high 65, Low 48

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny. Windy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. high 76, Low 55
Wednesday – Partly Sunny, cooler, High 65, Low 50

WN: Isolated Storms High 73, Low 54
Wednesday – Partly Cloudy High 64, Low 48

Here is a look at the radar, showing rain moving out of town, but with a thunderstorm lingering across the Mississippi in, well, Mississippi.
Little Rock

A little wet rock

OK, that was lame. I will be back to normal soon, I swear it. I’ve been on vacation. After a very rainy Saturday as we attempted to forecast for Little Rock, the Arkansas city was reintroduced to the same system as rain backed it’s way into town on Sunday, and only slowly inched out of town on Monday. The Weather Channel nosed past the competion with this forecast.
Actuals: Sunday .16 inches of rain, High 76, Low 69
Monday – Trace of rain, High 79, Low 68

Grade: B