Tag Archives: Lexington

Warmth for the weekend

Last week, we looked at the forecast for Lexington, Kentucky, and saw a cold front sweeping south, likely interrupted by the still developing Hurricane Chris. We thought the rain would slow down, but we certainly didn’t think the cold air would be waylaid. Indeed, temperature were 4-9 degrees warmer than expected on Friday, and still a few degrees warmer on Saturday. There was a little bit of rain on Friday, so that did make it through. We could still be surprised by the warmth, though. Accuweather and the Weather Service tied at the top.
Actuals: Friday – .14” of rain, High 87, Low 68
Saturday – High 84, low 60

Grade B-C

Lexington, Kentucky to Lansing, Michigan

All right, gang, let’s talk about a road trip. This time, we’re going to head from Kentucky to Michigan, which is only the length of Indiana apart (or Ohio, depending on your travel pleasure). The cities in question, Lexington and Lansing are only about 6 hours apart, so long as we take that Ohio route since Lexington is in eastern Kentucky. The mileage is 397mi, so our rate of speed will be nearly 68 miles per hour, which only leads me to believe that traffic laws in Cincinnati are loosely enforced.


There are two competing forces in the eastern third of the country. There is Tropical Storm Chris off the coast of North Carolina, generating a northerly flow through, and then there is a cold front ready to sweep through Michigan late this evening, attempting to draw moisture north. Instead of adding any convergence or convection, it’s just taking a lot of the moisture out of the atmosphere that would otherwise be available for the front. It will be getting a bit warmer in the afternoon on Monday, but the showers and storms that would otherwise be triggered by an open Gulf will be shunted west. We’ll get to Lansing before the front does, so that swift pace through Ohio will probably hold up just fine.

Ogden, Utah, to Lexington, Kentucky

We’re off for a fun little road trip today. The drive from Utah to Kentucky takes the familiar route along I-80 through most of Nebraska, but then swings us further south, toward I-70 for the second half of the trip. We’re going to forecast for the whole dang thing, one way or another. It’s a 3 day trek, covering 1650 miles. This means that the daily goal will be 550 miles, right on the nose. I think we can do it.

 

DAY ONE (Friday)

The beginning of July is one of the best times of year to drive through the mountains. You won’t have to worry about snow, for one thing, but also, wherever trees grow, they will be at their greenest of the year, before the daily sunshine scorches any available sun. There are some smoky forest fires in Colorado, which may provide a haze to the drive, however high pressure over the Plains is receding from the Rockies, and the air will begin moving and the haze might dissipate. The additional bonus of ridge pulling away will limit the convergence at the surface, and thunderstorms will likely be non existent from Ogden to Lodgepole, in the Nebraska Panhandle.

DAY TWO (Saturday)
While high pressure is moving away from the Rockies, it isn’t moving much further than that, remaining in the Plains and Mississippi Valley. This means the rest of the drive through Nebraska, and we’ll be able to sneak south towards Kansas City in comfortable weather for this time of year. We’ll make it to Odessa, Missouri, east of KC, for our daily stop.

DAY THREE (Sunday)
As the high pressure begins to break down later in the weekend, Gulf moisture will begin to filter north through Mississippi towards the tail end of our route. We’ll make it to St. Louis with no problems, and there won’t REALLY be a problem for the rest of the route, just a few isolated spits of rain through southern Illinois and into western Kentucky. If any really heavy rain falls, it would likely be right as we cross the Mississippi River, but we will probably slip past there before that is a real threat. Lexington will be returning to hot, sticky conditions as we arrive in town.

Lexington, Kentucky

All right gang, it’s forecast time. We’re off to the home of the University of Kentucky for our forecast today.

At 1154AM, ET, Lexington was reporting clear skies and a sultry 91 degrees, with a dew point of 73 degrees. A cold front is moving through the northern Great Lakes, and some prefrontal instability was leading to bands of clouds in the eastern Great Lakes. The strongest prefrontal trough has started to touch off some deeper convection over northern Indiana and Ohio.
The boundary itself will arrive in northern Kentucky around midday on Friday, and through that time, this afternoon and tomorrow morning, there will be a threat for some showers and storms. A strong area of high pressure is building in behind the boundary, and a quick turn towards sunny skies after the Friday morning showers is expected. Saturday in particular looks fantastic.
Tomorrow – morning showers and storms, High 81, Low 65
Saturday, High 80, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning, then cloudy skies late. High 82, Low 67
Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky.  High 81, Low 59

AW: Tomorrow – Variable cloudiness, a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; not as hot but humid High 83, Low 67
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny; nice High 82, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 83, Low 67
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 81, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 78, Low 67
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 78, Low 61

WN: Tomorrow – Party cloudy with scattered storms, High 83, Low 73
Saturday – Sunny, High 81, Low 60

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the morning, continuing until afternoon. High 79, Low 68
Saturday – Partly cloudy overnight. High 81, Low 58

Here is a look at the satellite, showing some serious convection north of Indianapolis, and also near Cleveland. Showers and storms may pop up this afternoon a little further south, by Cleveland.

NOAA/NESDIS/STAR GOES-16 ABI BAND 01 OR_ABI-L1b-RadC-M3C01_G16_s20181861542222_e20181861544595_c20181861545038.nc

Lexington, Kentucky to Fort Walton Beach, Florida

You know, Kentucky and Florida are both colleges in the same athletic conference, the SEC, so perhaps it should be no surprise that Lexington and Fort Walton Beach are a mere 10hours apart. This one day, 655 mile trip will be accomplished at a rate of almost 65mph. It looks like a fairly nice drive, so let’s get to it!

Lexington
There is a weak area of low pressure off the Carolina coast tonight, and it will remain there tomorrow. It isn’t being monitored by the NHC or anything like that, so for our purposes, all we need to worry about is the fact that it is helping direct dry air into the Tennessee Valley. There is a developing area of low pressure in the central Plains as well, and our entire route will be in a stasis between the two features. What does all this mean? We’re in for a pretty nice drive to the Panhandle of Florida.
fort-walton-beach

Lexington, Kentucky to Greeley, Colorado

We’re taking a trip between two college towns, headed from the home of the University of Kentucky to the home of the University of Northern Colorado. It’s a 1224 mile journey that will take us 2 days to complete, with the second day taking longer than the first. There is a lot of interstate to cover, soo we will maintain a fairly brisk pace of about 65ph overall. By those estimates, day one will be done after just short of 520 miles. We will cross the Great Plains on this trip, so I hope passengers brought along some reading.

DAY ONE (Sunday)
Lexington
A rather persistent surface feature remains unmoved over Missouri. Most of the moisture today, tomorrow and for the last several days, has remained at the leading edge of the rain shower activity. As we head out for the drive on Sunday, that means the potential for light rain showers in western Kentucky, which will become very heavy between Paducah and St. Louis (AKA, over Illinois). The rain will end abruptly on the west side of St. Louis, however, and we will be free and clear to Sweet Springs, about an hour outside of Kansas City.

DAY TWO (Monday)
An upper level wave moving through the Northern Plains. There is some suggestion that we will see some heavier rain between Salina and Kansas City in eastern Kansas, but through the western part of the state, it appears that activity will be very isolated. Temperatures rising through the afternoon will cap things, so by about 2pm, the threat for precipitation will be over for us. It will be like this from Hays west through Kansas and eventually in eastern Colorado. Hot and dry in Greeley.
Greeley

Kentucky convection

Ahead of an area of low pressure moving through the northern Plains, there was a vast field of warm, moist air churning through the Ohio Valley. There was a lot of cloudiness throughout the Lexington region because of the overriding moisture, which kept temperatures cooler than one might have expected south of a June warm front. Still, this was well anticipated by every outlet. When the sun did break out, it simply provided the impetus for thunderstorms, which they saw more vigorously on Sunday than Saturday. Victoria Weather ended up with the top forecast for the day, narrowly edging Weatherbug and The Weather Channel.
Actuals: Saturday .03 inches of rain, High 81, Low 70
Sunday – .52 inches of rain, High 85, Low 71

Grade: A

Lexington, Kentucky to Anderson, Indiana

Just a shorty today, and one that takes us through a part o the country that I am fairly familiar with, though I haven’t necessarily been to any of these exact areas. OK, I have been to Anderson. It’s a 204 drive that will last 3 1/2 hours, giving us a pace of about 59mph. There aren’t many interstates to travel on, and the main ones take us right through the Cincinnati metro.

Lexington
An are of low pressure churning it’s way through the northern Plains and into Canada is drawing a lot of moisture and instability north, and the models are doing a fairly poor job of handling it. Forecasts are for precipitation at all times along our route, but that’s with the courser models, and a failure to appreciate what’s actually going on across the environment right now. I think there will almost certainly be a sprinkle or two, maybe even a heavy shower, but the heavier stuff will remain west of Indianapolis. Hot, muggy and mostly cloudy conditions await in Anderson.
andersonIN

Lexington, Kentucky

Today we head off to Lexington, KY, which is where I was around 9 months ago watching one of my best friends get married! Weather was perfect that weekend, will this one be just as nice? Let’s find out!

At 1154pm EDT, the temperature at Lexington, KY was 72 degrees with light rain falling. The Lexington area is caught between a large high pressure area over the Northeast and a strengthening low pressure over the Northern Plains. This pattern has opened up the Gulf to abundant moisture streaming northward through the MS River Valley. There’s a weak mid-level disturbance sitting over the OH Valley as well, and this will help enhance scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Not much will change into Sunday other than the pattern shifting a bit to the east. That won’t help the Lexington area stay dry, however, as broad southwesterly flow continues directly over the area. Once again, scattered showers and thunderstorms will kick up for the afternoon hours. Storms shouldn’t be severe, but you can expect some brief torrential downpours should they move overhead. It’ll be a couple active days around the area!

Saturday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms. High 81, Low 69.
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 86, Low 69.

TWC: Saturday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 81, Low 68.
Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 87, Low 70.

AW: Saturday: An afternoon thunderstorm. High 84, Low 68.
Sunday: A couple of thunderstorms. High 87, Low 68.

NWS: Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. High 82, Low 69.
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 84, Low 68.

WB: Saturday: Thunderstorms. High 82, Low 70.
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 84, Low 68.

WN: Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 82, Low 68.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 84, Low 66.

Here we see some light rain showers shifting north through the Lexington area. This activity will be a lot more widespread during the afternoons over the weekend!
LEXrad