Tag Archives: Lexington

Lexington, Kentucky to Fort Walton Beach, Florida

You know, Kentucky and Florida are both colleges in the same athletic conference, the SEC, so perhaps it should be no surprise that Lexington and Fort Walton Beach are a mere 10hours apart. This one day, 655 mile┬átrip will be accomplished at a rate of almost 65mph. It looks like a fairly nice drive, so let’s get to it!

There is a weak area of low pressure off the Carolina coast tonight, and it will remain there tomorrow. It isn’t being monitored by the NHC or anything like that, so for our purposes, all we need to worry about is the fact that it is helping direct dry air into the Tennessee Valley. There is a developing area of low pressure in the central Plains as well, and our entire route will be in a stasis between the two features. What does all this mean? We’re in for a pretty nice drive to the Panhandle of Florida.

Lexington, Kentucky to Greeley, Colorado

We’re taking a trip between two college towns, headed from the home of the University of Kentucky to the home of the University of Northern Colorado. It’s a 1224 mile journey that will take us 2 days to complete, with the second day taking longer than the first. There is a lot of interstate to cover, soo we will maintain a fairly brisk pace of about 65ph overall. By those estimates, day one will be done after just short of 520 miles. We will cross the Great Plains on this trip, so I hope passengers brought along some reading.

DAY ONE (Sunday)
A rather persistent surface feature remains unmoved over Missouri. Most of the moisture today, tomorrow and for the last several days, has remained at the leading edge of the rain shower activity. As we head out for the drive on Sunday, that means the potential for light rain showers in western Kentucky, which will become very heavy between Paducah and St. Louis (AKA, over Illinois). The rain will end abruptly on the west side of St. Louis, however, and we will be free and clear to Sweet Springs, about an hour outside of Kansas City.

DAY TWO (Monday)
An upper level wave moving through the Northern Plains. There is some suggestion that we will see some heavier rain between Salina and Kansas City in eastern Kansas, but through the western part of the state, it appears that activity will be very isolated. Temperatures rising through the afternoon will cap things, so by about 2pm, the threat for precipitation will be over for us. It will be like this from Hays west through Kansas and eventually in eastern Colorado. Hot and dry in Greeley.

Kentucky convection

Ahead of an area of low pressure moving through the northern Plains, there was a vast field of warm, moist air churning through the Ohio Valley. There was a lot of cloudiness throughout the Lexington region because of the overriding moisture, which kept temperatures cooler than one might have expected south of a June warm front. Still, this was well anticipated by every outlet. When the sun did break out, it simply provided the impetus for thunderstorms, which they saw more vigorously on Sunday than Saturday. Victoria Weather ended up with the top forecast for the day, narrowly edging Weatherbug and The Weather Channel.
Actuals: Saturday .03 inches of rain, High 81, Low 70
Sunday – .52 inches of rain, High 85, Low 71

Grade: A

Lexington, Kentucky to Anderson, Indiana

Just a shorty today, and one that takes us through a part o the country that I am fairly familiar with, though I haven’t necessarily been to any of these exact areas. OK, I have been to Anderson. It’s a 204 drive that will last 3 1/2 hours, giving us a pace of about 59mph. There aren’t many interstates to travel on, and the main ones take us right through the Cincinnati metro.

An are of low pressure churning it’s way through the northern Plains and into Canada is drawing a lot of moisture and instability north, and the models are doing a fairly poor job of handling it. Forecasts are for precipitation at all times along our route, but that’s with the courser models, and a failure to appreciate what’s actually going on across the environment right now. I think there will almost certainly be a sprinkle or two, maybe even a heavy shower, but the heavier stuff will remain west of Indianapolis. Hot, muggy and mostly cloudy conditions await in Anderson.

Lexington, Kentucky

Today we head off to Lexington, KY, which is where I was around 9 months ago watching one of my best friends get married! Weather was perfect that weekend, will this one be just as nice? Let’s find out!

At 1154pm EDT, the temperature at Lexington, KY was 72 degrees with light rain falling. The Lexington area is caught between a large high pressure area over the Northeast and a strengthening low pressure over the Northern Plains. This pattern has opened up the Gulf to abundant moisture streaming northward through the MS River Valley. There’s a weak mid-level disturbance sitting over the OH Valley as well, and this will help enhance scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Not much will change into Sunday other than the pattern shifting a bit to the east. That won’t help the Lexington area stay dry, however, as broad southwesterly flow continues directly over the area. Once again, scattered showers and thunderstorms will kick up for the afternoon hours. Storms shouldn’t be severe, but you can expect some brief torrential downpours should they move overhead. It’ll be a couple active days around the area!

Saturday: Widespread showers and thunderstorms. High 81, Low 69.
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 86, Low 69.

TWC: Saturday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 81, Low 68.
Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 87, Low 70.

AW: Saturday: An afternoon thunderstorm. High 84, Low 68.
Sunday: A couple of thunderstorms. High 87, Low 68.

NWS: Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely. High 82, Low 69.
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 84, Low 68.

WB: Saturday: Thunderstorms. High 82, Low 70.
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms. High 84, Low 68.

WN: Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 82, Low 68.
Sunday: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. High 84, Low 66.

Here we see some light rain showers shifting north through the Lexington area. This activity will be a lot more widespread during the afternoons over the weekend!

Asleep at the switch

I said in the forecast for Lexington that Accuweather must have been in a dream world, as their forecast was very warm, given how rainy and cloudy it appeared like it would be. Sure enough, the high temperatures proffered by AW missed by about 10 degrees. The rest of us were too warm as well, as the rainy days in Lexington meant temperatures that couldn’t get out of the 60s. The Weather Service had the best forecast, but it wasn’t great.
Actuals: Sunday – .97 inches of rain, High 64, Low 58
Monday – .04 inches of rain, High 69, Low 58

Grade C

Lexington, Kentucky

Headed to the Bluegrass State for our Saturday afternoon forecast. Will they get a blue sky forecast?

At 454PM, ET, Lexington was reporting clear skies and a temperature of 78 degrees. A stalled boundary that lied east-west lay between Berea and London and was triggering some strong to severe thunderstorms along I-75, including one passing as close as through Richmond, though the heaviest activity was being seen further south, from Corbin to points southwest. Dew points along the boundary were pooling and a couple degrees higher, though it was apparent that the front was acting as a barrier between moisture regimes, as sites along the Ohio River were much drier than those along the Tennessee border.
The strong jet will shift out of the country, taking with it any remnant of the cold front that had swept through and keeping the country in a very quiet regime at the upper levels. There is a weak wave with almost no flow through it over the Rockies that will slowly drift into the Tennessee Valley. At the surface, there will be little to no reflection, however it’s influence in upper levels of the atmosphere will be enough to generate fairly widespread thunderstorms throughout Kentucky each of the next two days, however the heaviest rains will come early on Monday.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and thunderstorms, High 73, Low 59
Monday – Showers and storms more widespread, High 74, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers and scattered thunderstorms High 74, Low 59
Monday – Morning showers, possibly a rumble of thunder High 73, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around High 78, Low 59
Monday – Mostly cloudy and breezy with showers and thunderstorms High 77, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 58
Monday – Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy High 72, Low 60

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until midday…then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. High 75, Low 58
Monday – Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. High 74, Low 60

I don’t know what kind of dream world Accuweather is off in, but it must be warm. Here is the radar, looking deliciously summer like.