We’re off to southern Oklahoma, which might get a little interesting this week. Stay tuned…
At 1155PM, CT, Lawton was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with a 35mph south wind, feeding moisture into a strong trough over the northern Plains. There was a broken stratus layer over Oklahoma, which would likely keep temperatures down today, however clearing was as near as the Texas Panhandle. Dew points are in the low 60s, and a dry line along the Texas/New Mexico border looks ominous.
Upper level troughing over the northern Plains will weaken and shuttle off into Canada, and attention will become focused on a deep upper level trough spanning the country, from Canada to Mexico over the Rocky Mountains. The resultant surface low will explode as it spills into the northern High Plains. Southerly flow will only become stronger, followed by dry air as flow becomes westerly, expected to touch off thunderstorms tomorrow evening, becoming increasingly widespread overnight. The real threat for widespread storms will be in eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas on Monday, but at their genesis, supercells are a possibility in Lawton’s vicinity tomorrow evening, with heavy rain taking over into Monday morning, before clearing arrives.
Tomorrow – Strong thunderstorms late, High 75, Low 60
Monday – Rain early, with clearing coming late, High 74, Low 60
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. High 73, Low 62
Monday – Thunderstorms. Potential for severe thunderstorms High 71, Low 62
AW: Tomorrow – Windy and warm with variable clouds High 80, Low 58
Monday – Watch for strong morning thunderstorms; mostly cloudy and breezy High 79, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms. High 78, Low 58
Monday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. High 78, Low 58
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms High 78, Low 58
Monday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely High 77, Low 59
The model output for Monday’s highs are different by 10 degrees. Crazy. I went cooler, as Lawton appears to be post frontal for the majority of the day. Here is the satellite, but since I started this post, storms have exploded over the western Texas Panhandle.