Tag Archives: Lawton

Drizzle Levels Playing Field

Clouds and some light dizzle fell on Lawton midday Wednesday, keeping the temperatures in the mid 70s through the mid-afternoon hours. The clouds finally broke and allowed the temperature to spike up into the mid 80s before cooling off for the night. Thursday was largely uneventful, allowing temperatures to rocket up into the mid 90’s. This all lead to a 3-way tie between VW, NWS, and Weatherbug.

Wednesday: Trace of precip in midday drizzle. High 84, Low 67.
Thursday: High 94, Low 71.
Forecast Grade: B

Lawton, Oklahoma to Dayton, Ohio

Today, we undertake a 2-day, 940-mile trip through America’s Heartland. Let’s see what the rest of the workweek has in store for this trip!

Lawton

DAY ONE

It’ll be a quiet start to the day as we head northeast out of Lawton towards Oklahoma City. For most of the morning, it should be mostly sunny with just some high clouds when we make our way past Tulsa. As we make our way past Joplin and towards Springfield, we can expect it to cloud up a little more as a couple of scattered showers/thunderstorms develop along a weak boundary setting up from Kansas to Tennessee. We’ll eventually end our night in St. Louis after dodging a couple showers in the evening, but should be mainly dry.

DAY TWO

A cloudy start is expected to the day as southerly flow continues over the Mid-MS Valley, with perhaps a few isolated showers lingering around from the previous night. Most of the activity from the developing system in the Central US will remain west of St. Louis through mid-day, giving us a bit of a break as we head eastward through southern Illinois and past Indianapolis. Conditions will continue to improve as we push eastward into western Ohio to finish our trip at Dayton!

dayton

Lawton, Oklahoma

Off to Lawton for today’s forecast. The Lawton area tends to see a shorter tornado season than Oklahoma City or Tulsa because they are far enough west that they are too hot or dry for real thunderstorms. What does today entail?

At 253PM, CT, Lawton was reporting a temperature of 84 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. The pattern has been fairly stagnant over the southern Plains, with thunderstorms erupting along the Front Range and drifting east, with a weak boundary struggling to press south through Texas. Tonight, neither feature will impact Lawton.
An area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest, of all places, will subtly change the dynamic over western Oklahoma and the southern Plains. The axis of thunderstorms that has been over eastern Colorado south into the Texas Panhandle will adjust so as to lie from western Kansas to western Oklahoma in the next two evenings. Tomorrow’s storms will be the strongest as the area of convergence taps into a fresh source of energy for the first time, but there will be weaker showers on Thursday evening with the region already worked over. The thunderstorm activity shouldn’t ruin many plans; the hot weather will likely do a decent enough job of that.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, with late storms, High 90, Low 68
Thursday – Sunny with some late rain High 95, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow Partly Cloudy High 92, Low 68
Thursday – Sunny High 96, Low 70

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny (PM Storms) High 92, Low 69
Thursday – Mostly sunny, breezy and hot High 96, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (Late storms) High 88, Low 68
Thursday – Mostly sunny (Late storms), High 94, Low 72

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms High 90, Low 69
Thursday – Mostly sunny High 94, Low 71

Toasty, certainly. I don’t use percentages in my forecasts, but that 20% sort of number sounds pretty good. Here is the current satellie for the region.
Lawton

Ames, Iowa to Lawton, Oklahoma

We are on our way for a simple one day drive. I say simple because the route is easy and the mileage is, like I said, only enough to last us one day. The weather will not be so agreeable. The 664 miles will be covered after nearly 10 hours of driving at a speed of 66.8mph. So let’s see what’s going on down I-35

ames
A system spiraling over Texas is going to lift to the north, bringing some occasionally heavy rain with it. Unless you are driving in it, this rain activity is actually quite welcome for a region stricken by drought for the past couple of years, if not longer. It will be dry south through the state of Iowa, but as we pass into Missouri, we can expect to encounter some rain, that will rapidly become heavy. The heaviest rain will continue through northern Missouri to Kansas City, with moderate showers continuing on to Emporia. After that, the drive through Wichita and Oklahoma City will be overcast, as we project to be camped under an inverted trough the rest of the way to Lawton. Don’t be surprised if we see some spits of light rain the rest of the way, but more than likely, we will be dry when we conclude our trip.
Lawton

Lawton, Oklahoma

The nastiest winter weather this year has steadily developed over the south central US, systems commonly known as “Texas Hookers”. Yeah. So how’s it going in southwest Oklahoma today?

At 525PM, CT, Lawton was reporting a temperature of 48 degrees with cloudy skies and rain. A large, swirling area of low pressure lies centered over south Texas, with a great deal of rain winding through Texas and into Oklahoma. Lawton is on the northern flank of this low, which means an introduction of colder air and stratiform rain, the heaviest of which appeared to be just north of, and well to the west of Lawton.
This area of low pressure will shift northeast, with the back edge of the system being pulled through the state of Oklahoma through the day tomorrow, leading steady rain to become light showers later in the day, eventually ending by afternoon. Another system is going to move into the High Plains by Friday, but the effect this system will have is the reintroduction of southerly flow. This will help stabilize the atmosphere for the day on Friday, and an increasingly robust southwest flow will bring about warmer temperatures.
Tomorrow – Rain early, clearing late in the day. High 57, Low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny, windy, High 69, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Few Showers High 55, Low 42
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 68, Low 39

AW: Tomorrow – A shower in the morning; otherwise, mostly cloudy High 53, Low 42
Friday – Warmer with partial sunshine High 67, Low 37

NWS: Tomorrow – Showers, mainly before noon. High 54, Low 43
Friday – Mostly sunny (wind to 32mph), High 68, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Rain showers in the morning…then a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon High 55, Low 43
Friday – Partly cloudy. Warmer High 67, Low 39

It’s a drizzly, rainy mess today in Lawton, and it looks like another one tomorrow. Seems nice for Friday though!
Lawton

Dodging the bullet

On Sunday, a strong, tornadic thunderstorm exploded along the Texas Panhandle-western Oklahoma border and tracked north–completely avoiding Lawton. The front moved into Lawton overnight, bringing with it a rapid cool down and heavy rain, which meant that it was unable to warm up into the afternoon. Lawton saw over an inch and a half of rain, but because the storms came when they did, there was no severe weather, with only a healthy spring rain (and a little bit more cold air than expected). Temperatures were very cool, and those who went with the GFS paid for it, as it was 12 degrees off on yesterday’s high. This meant that The Weather Channel and Victoria-Weather were the clearly better forecasters, with TWC edging us by a degree.
Sunday – High 75, Low 64
Monday – 1.59″ of rain in thunderstorms, High 69, Low 53

Grade: C

Lawton, Oklahoma

We’re off to southern Oklahoma, which might get a little interesting this week. Stay tuned…

At 1155PM, CT, Lawton was reporting a temperature of 71 degrees with a 35mph south wind, feeding moisture into a strong trough over the northern Plains. There was a broken stratus layer over Oklahoma, which would likely keep temperatures down today, however clearing was as near as the Texas Panhandle. Dew points are in the low 60s, and a dry line along the Texas/New Mexico border looks ominous.
Upper level troughing over the northern Plains will weaken and shuttle off into Canada, and attention will become focused on a deep upper level trough spanning the country, from Canada to Mexico over the Rocky Mountains. The resultant surface low will explode as it spills into the northern High Plains. Southerly flow will only become stronger, followed by dry air as flow becomes westerly, expected to touch off thunderstorms tomorrow evening, becoming increasingly widespread overnight. The real threat for widespread storms will be in eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas on Monday, but at their genesis, supercells are a possibility in Lawton’s vicinity tomorrow evening, with heavy rain taking over into Monday morning, before clearing arrives.
Tomorrow – Strong thunderstorms late, High 75, Low 60
Monday – Rain early, with clearing coming late, High 74, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. High 73, Low 62
Monday – Thunderstorms. Potential for severe thunderstorms High 71, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Windy and warm with variable clouds High 80, Low 58
Monday – Watch for strong morning thunderstorms; mostly cloudy and breezy High 79, Low 59

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms. High 78, Low 58
Monday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely. High 78, Low 58

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with chance of thunderstorms High 78, Low 58
Monday – Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms likely High 77, Low 59

The model output for Monday’s highs are different by 10 degrees. Crazy. I went cooler, as Lawton appears to be post frontal for the majority of the day. Here is the satellite, but since I started this post, storms have exploded over the western Texas Panhandle.

It’s in the 90s somewhere

That somewhere is certainly Lawton, Oklahoma, where temperatures reached that lofty level each of the past two days. On Tuesday, there was a brief little thunderstorm that moved through in the afternoon, but the airport in town only reported a hundredth of rain. Accuweather had the best forecast, but everyone was in the same neighborhood, and there wasn’t much separating the top from the bottom.
Actuals: Tuesday – .01 inches of rain, High 94, Low 69
Wednesday – High 93, Low 71

Grade: B

Lawton, Oklahoma

From southwestern Washington, we head to southwestern Oklahoma today.

At 453PM, CT, Lawton was reporting a temperature of 87 degrees with clear skies, though there were isolated strong thunderstorms developing across western Oklahoma and northern Texas, with the largest storms east north of Ardmore and to the north near El Reno and Yukon, with a cluster of storms near Wichita Falls, Texas. Oklahoma found itself between a set triggers, a stationary front to the north and a lee trough to the west.
Over the next several days, the flow aloft will be weak and westerly. There won’t be much in terms of full layered systems, but with the westerly flow, expected a stationary, broad surface lee trough to develop over the high plains. The rotation around the low will mean some dry air sucked southeastward, and it’s intersection with the warmer, more humid air of the Gulf will be across southwestern Oklahoma, which means there will be a chance for isolated thunderstorms in Lawton eacho f the next two days.
Tomorrow – Isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 90, Low 70
Wednesday – Thunderstorms possible late. Hot, High 92, Low 72

TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms possible High 89, Low 71
Wednesday – Slight chance of a thunderstorm. high 92, Low 71

AW: Tomorrow – Slight chance of a thunderstorm. High 92, Low 72
Wednesday – Partly sunny and very warm; a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon High 93, Low 72

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 90, Low 72
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy (Late precip) High 92, Low 71

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 90, Low 71
Wednesday – Partly cloudy with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 91, Low 71

It’s still summer in Oklahoma, that’s for sure.

El Paso, Texas to Lawton, Oklahoma

Just a one day journey today, headed to Lawton, perhaps the only site that you can get to in one day from El Paso. It’s a 655mile drive that will actually take us about 9 1/2 hours. IF you do the math, that’s a 68.5mph average, telling you all you need to know about the terrain we will be covering.

The drive will be extremely warm, with temperatures in the neighborhood of 100 degrees in El Paso and not much cooler through west Texas. I wouldn’t be surprised to see 90s all the way through the drive. The dry line will set itself up along the Texas/New Mexico border, but its associated storms won’t go up until around 4 or 5 in the afternoon, and by that time we’ll be between Abilene and Wichita Falls, well away from any inclement weather. Hot and dry will be the name of this long, steamy drive.