Tag Archives: Las Vegas

Mid summer heat scorches the desert

Even with an understanding of the heat in the desert and Las Vegas, our forecast group still failed to fully appreciate just how hot it could be. Only one outlet, Weahernation, overshot either of the high temperature forecasts, but everyone else came in a little low. Part of the heat was piped in by brisk southerly wind that gusted to 30mph on Thursday and  Friday.  With accurate low temperature forecasts, the National Weather Service was able to sneak ahead of Weatherbug, despite the latter’s ability to bring the heat.
Actuals: Thursday – High 107, Low 86
Friday – High 104, Low 81

Grade: A-D

Las Vegas, Nevada

We are looking at a heat wave for the middle of the country this week, but I bet it won’t compare to what they are seeing in Vegas!

At 258PM, MT, Las Vegas was reporting mostly cloudy skies with a temperature of 107.. While winds were stagnant in the Vegas area, they were a little brisk in regions outside of Las Vegas, but the described overcast was likely a function of the dusty, unmoving  air across the Basin, and the brisker flow was leading to an area of low pressure over the central Rockies. Southwest flow is helping feed the incredibly warm air.
The flow will fade over the next 12 hours or so as low pressure shifts towards the High Plains. A warm ridge of high pressure will remain in place over the area in the wake of the shifting low, but flow from the southwest will be tempered, so the oppressive heat will subside a bit.
Tomorrow – Hot, sunny, High 104, Low 85
Friday – A touch cooler, still hot, High 97, Low 78

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies with gusty winds developing later in the day High 107, Low 81
Friday – Mostly sunny skies with gusty winds developing during the afternoon. High 102, Low 79

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot High 106, Low 79
Friday – Mostly sunny High 100, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and hot, High 107, Low 86
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 100, Low 81

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and breezy, High 103, Low 83
Friday – Mostly sunny, High 99, Low 82

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 108, Low 86
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 100, Low 81

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 106, Low 80
Friday – Mostly cloudy starting in the afternoon. High 99, Low 75

Here is a look at the water vapor imagery for the nation. Tehre is a distinct area of convection in northwest Mexico but otherwise, there is an emerging ridge from northern California to the front range.

Las Vegas

Forecasting jackpot

Summer is usually the time of year for the very best in forecasting accuracy. It usually goes the other way in the Rockies and Great Basin, as the monsoon picks up and the fickle machinations of afternoon thunderstorms dictate the forecasts. Right now, though, the Mountains and Great Basin are in that sweet spot, where a good batch of high pressure will lead to a very good forecast. That was exactly the scenario in Las Vegas for the past two days. Weatherbug missed only by a couple of degrees on the comfortably warm Las Vegas forecast. We couldn’t have timed it any better.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 69, Low 55
Wednesday – High 69, Low 51

Grade: A-B

Las Vegas, Nevada

Sin City! Anthony is headed down there later this week, so perhaps he will heed the following words to ensure a better vacation all the way around.

At 756PM, MT, Las Vegas was reporting a temperature of 74 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. There was a band of clouds parked from Wyoming to southern California, and the back end of the clouds was right on top of Las Vegas. Temperatures were in the mid-70s where there were clouds, but outside of town away from clouds and the valley, temperatures were already in the mid 60s.
A broad trough over the Rockies is helping to motivate the flow across the region. There is a bit of precipitation across northern Nevada, and the flow producing it is responsible for some elevated moisture across the Vegas area. As the upper level trough moves into the Plains and helps to produce a very strong system in the Plains, expect northerly flow on the back end to bring a bit of a cool down to the area.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 75, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny, High 68, Low 51

TWC: Tomorrow – Windy with lots of sunshine, High 68, Low 57
Wednesday – Mainly sunny, High 70, Low 48

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, breezy and not as warm High 68, low 54
Wednesday – Sunny to partly cloudy and cool High 67, Low 47

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 69, Low 58
Wednesday – Sunny, Higgh 69, Low 51

WB: Tomorrow – Breezy, cooler, sunny. High 69, Low 56
Wednesday – Sunny, High 69, Low 50

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 70, Low 59
Wednesday – Mostly Sunny High 70, Low 52

FIO: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy in the morning. High 71, Low 51
Wednesday – Clear throughout the day. High 69, Low 42

I am headed north of the rest of the group for tomorrow’s high. It’s cooling slower than model guidance is indicating, and the short range models are going much warmer tomorrow. Here is satellite, showing off our nearby clouds.
Las Vegas

Brownsville, Texas to Las Vegas, Nevada

This is probably the southernmost trek we have ever taken at Victoria-Weather, hugging the Mexican border for most of the trip. It’s a 3 day drive through some gorse and brush covering 1553 miles at a blistering speed of 67.8mph. The speed limit is mostly unnecessary when there is nobody around. That speed will help us cover 542 miles a day on Thursday and Friday. Weekend in Vegas!

DAY ONE

The slog through south and west Texas will begin uneventfully. Nothing but the typical heat, increasingly dry, will accompany our drive through places like Corpus Christi and San Antonio. There aren’t many places to stop at the point in our journey in which we are supposed to stop, so plan on calling it a night at exit 307, between Sheffield and Bakersfield. There is a rest area nearby!

DAY TWO
Believe it or not, but we could actually be in for some weather on this leg of the journey. The last 4 1/2 hours in Texas won’t give us some problems, but an enormous area of low pressure setting up in the Rockies is going to dominate the weather pattern for the Rockies late this week into the weekend, and it may be strong enough to generate a few showers west of Deming, New Mexico and west to Johnson, Arizona, the stop for the night. (Johnson is between Wilcox and Tucson). The shower activity will be very light, and may not even fall at all, given the dry air at the surface, but it is definitely something to think about.

DAY THREE
The cold front, and it will be a legitimate cold front, will lie between Tucson and Phoenix as we begin to make our way northwestward. Showers and thunderstorms, a rarity in this part of the world, are going to be quite possible along our route, but should begin to wrap up after we pass through Phoenix. Chilly conditions… yes, chilly! will be our problem as we move northwest along the Joshua Tree Parkway towards Vegas. In fact, if you look at the mountains surrounding Las Vegas, don’t be surprised to see some freshly fallen snow! When we arrive in Sin City, the temperatures will only be in the 50s, with an overnight low perhaps dropping below 40!

Not even a dry heat

It’s almost always hot in Las Vegas, but they have the benefit in Sin City of seeing dew points in single digits, or on a particularly steamy day, maybe all the way up to 30 degrees. Over the past couple of days, however, those dew points climbed all the way up into the 60s, which is sticky even in the eastern third of the country. Add that to temperatures that hit 97 on Monday and 87 on Tuesday, and it was downright miserable. Good thing it’s so easy to find a pool in Vegas. Storms did rumble through and stall over Las Vegas on Tuesday, bringing well over an inch of rain to the Strip. Victoria-Weather and The Weather Channel nabbed a tie atop the leader board.
Actuals: Monday, High 97, Low 80
Tuesday, 1.18 inches of rain in thunderstorms High 87, Low 68

Grade: C

Las Vegas, Nevada

It’s a trip to Sin City. Kick back and enjoy the hot weather and the easy forecast.

At 556PM, PT, Las Vegas was reporting high clouds with a temperature of 96 degrees. Lately, diurnal convection has produced thunderstorms around Yuma, well south of Vegas in southern Nevada.
A trough moving through the Pacific Northwest is helping to stamp out the northern track penetration of monsoonal moisture, but as it moves northeast into the Canadian Prairies, things will become a bit more active around Vegas. Storms will mostly stay in higher elevation, but blustery winds may lead to lower visibilities, and there is certainly a chance for one of those rogue storms to come down to Las Vegas.
Tomorrow – Afternoon showers and storms possible, with some blowing dust, High 92, Low 81
Tuesday – Scattered showers and thunderstorms, High 90, Low 74

TWC: Tomorrow – Isolated T-Storms High 90, Low 78
Tuesday – Scattered T-Storms High 86, Low 73

AW: Tomorrow – Variable clouds with a thunderstorm high 89, Low 75
Tuesday – Sun and some clouds with a shower or thunderstorm around High 89, Low 73

NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, High 89, Low 78
Tuesday – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 89, Low 73

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. High 91, Low 83
Tuesday – Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. High 87, Low 78

Looking for some clouds over Vegas over night, it appears, and a healthy cool down. We’ll see. I’m not sold. Satellite is active, especially to the south.

Spontaneous combustion

I assume if any object was to light on fire, it would do so when the temperature hits 107 and there is no rain to be seen. If you were in Las Vegas this past weekend, please let me know if you saw something explode without prompting. The Weather Channel had the top forecast, thanks to a dry prognostication.
Actuals: Saturday – High 107, Low 86
Sunday – High 104, Low 86

Grade: A

Las Vegas, Nevada

Las Vegas. Heard of it?

At 156PM, PT, Las Vegas was reporting a temperature of 102 with sunny skies. Early in the afternoon in the Desert Southwest, it promised to only get a few degrees hotter in Sin City.
The dew points were in the mid 40s, which for Las Vegas were relatively high. Still, it appeared that monsoonal flow would stay well east of Las Vegas, and continued hot, dry, summertime weather is expected in southern Nevada.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 104, Low 85
Sunday – Sunny High 103, Low 85

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny High 106, Low 83
Sunday – Sunny High 104, Low 86

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny with a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 106, Low 86
Sunday – Sunshine and some clouds High 106, Low 90

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Mostly sunny and hot High 106, Low 85.
Sunday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, High 104, Low 86

WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny, High 106, Low 84
Sunday – 40% Chance of storms, High 104, Low 86

The Weatherbug forecast is not loading correctly, so I had to go through another source. Hope this works. Satellite shows the monsoon over Arizona and the 4 Corners.

No excuses

If you have ever been to Las Vegas, you know that McCarran airport is right along the Strip. The airports of many other cities lie in the suburbs away from city centers. This is not the case in Las Vegas, so if you correctly forecast at the airport, in essence your forecast is also accurate for the downtown area. There is no excuse or cause for equivocation. That said, The Weather Channel had the top forecast in Las Vegas,, with a very good temperature forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 89, Low 68
Thursday – High 95, Low 70

Grade: A