Tag Archives: Lancaster

Something fishy

Temperatures never recovered in Lancaster to allow for a mid-afternoon high on Thursday after they began precipitously dropping after rain moved out later in the day on Wednesday. As a result, the low on Wednesday came right before midnight, while Thursday was never warmer than when the clock struck midnight. Here’s the thing, though. The last observation of the day Wednesday was 1153om, while the first on Thursday was at 1253AM. In that time, the temperature dropped by a degree, so forever in the record books, the low on December 2nd, 2015 will be 46, a full degree warmer than the high on December 3rd. Of course, we know it’s more likely that the high was 46 on Thursday. Not that it matters. Regardless of the hijinks, the NWS and Weatherbug tied atop the leaderboard.
Actuals: Wednesday .25 inches of rain, High 54, Low 46
Thursday – High 46, Low 39

Grade A-D

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

Happy Tuesday. I hope you’re ready for this forecast.

At 1046PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting low clouds, haze and a temperature of 51 degrees. There was drizzle as nearby as Coatesville, and very low clouds throughout southeastern Pennsylvania. An area of low pressure was centered over the western Great Lakes, but it was deeply occluded, with the secondary low developing north of Lake Ontario. Lancaster is smothered by low clouds and drizzle just ahead of the now slow moving cold front found west of the Appalachians.
The eastern fork of the upper level trough is really the only part of the feature that is showing up in any force. The jet will progress thanks to a perturbation fostering the secondary low in Ontario, but it will take its time. Tomorrow will be wall to wall rainy, but that rain will finally push out of town shortly before midnight. The colder core low that originated this system will slide into town bringing cooler temperatures. The limited moisture still tied to the circulation will be tied up in the mountains, so expect a considerably drier day.
Tomorrow – Rain, High 55, Low 45
Thursday – Clearer and much colder, High 47, Low 37

TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Periods of rain, High 55, Low 47
Thursday – Mostly sunny skies, Gusty winds in the morning, High 49, Low 40

AW: Tomorrow – Rain High 56, Low 47
Thursday – Breezy and colder with times of clouds and sun High 48, Low 38

NWS: Tomorrow – Rain. Areas of fog before 11am High 55, Low 47
Thursday – Mostly sunny (early rain, High 48, Low 38

WB: Tomorrow – Areas of fog in the morning. Rain. High 55, Low 47
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 48, Low 39

WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with Light Rain High 55, Low 46
Thursday – Partly Cloudy High 48, Low 41

FIO: Tomorrow – Rain until afternoon, starting again in the evening.High 58, Low 48
Thursday – Clear throughout the day. High 54, Low 34

This is one of the more amusing satellites I’ve seen in a while. Think it’s cloudy in Pennsylvania?

Lancaster, Pennsylvania to Lincoln, Nebraska

We’re hitting the Easter weekend, which means several people will be travelling. I, for one, will be travelling tomorrow (apologies for any late forecasts) too. I’m just saying, holiday travel is definitely a real thing. The one in particular that we are forecasting for is a 2 day trip covering 1202 miles. We won’t divide it into two, but rather cover 516 miles on Saturday at 64.6mph, and cover more ground on Sunday. That’s what Easter is all about!

DAY ONE (Saturday)
There is an active cold front moving through the Appalachians tonight, but by the time we get to our departure time, the cold front will have reached the Atlantic. Cold air will be filtering in from the Great Lakes, behind the system, and there is expected to be some lingering moisture at the mid levels. This means a threat for snow in the high terrain of western Pennsylvania but a stark clearing by the time we cross into Ohio. We will then CROSS Ohio, and end the day as far west as we can get, reaching Berlin in the northwest corner.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
Temperatures will be warmer on Easter as we driver through the I States, covering a lot of ground on Eastern Sunday. The shower activity will linger north of our route on Sunday, so we will remain dry on the way to Lincoln. If there is any concern, it’s with southerly wind through the Plains towards that band of rain to our north. Both hands on the wheel with these cross winds! That’s the crux of the concerns, though. I suspect we will arrive in the Nebraska capital with no problems.

Lancaster ducks the ice

Yesterday was a very difficult morning for the mid-Atlantic, particularly for anyone wishing to do any travelling whatsoever. Areas from Philadelphia to Connecticut were coated in ice, and accidents were plentiful, even for a Sunday morning, which is generally a light travel day. Fortunately for Lancaster, the rain didn’t arrive until the early afternoon, when temperatures were well above freezing. That said, there was still fairly cool temperatures, particularly when compared to the optimistic forecasts issued by so many. Victoria-Weather blew other outlets out of the water in terms of temperatures, as we expected the cold air to cycle in like it did (although we did forecast more precipitation, and for it to fall as partly as snow). Still, a perfect temperature forecast yesterday leads us to victory.
Actuals: Saturday – High 28, Low 14
Sunday – .01 inches of rain, High 37, Low 23

Grade: A-C

Lancaster, Pennsylvania to Fayetteville, North Carolina

Time to go! We’re taking a one day, 7 hour trip from Lancaster to Fayetteville. Most of the drive will take place on I-95, but our pace will only be 64.14mph, slowed down significantly by time served in the Baltimore-Washington area. It’s only 443 miles between the two towns, and we’re definitely going to see rain.

Rain will just be moving into the Lancaster area at around the time we leave tomorrow morning. It will be steady all the way to Baltimore, at which point it will become heavy. Assuming our Sunday pace stays the same, we will likely be driving in moderate to heavy rain through Virginia and to about Rocky Mount. It will begin to taper off fairly quickly as we head south from Rocky Mount to Fayetteville, and even if there is a little rain left over by the time we arrive in Fayetteville, at least we won’t be driving through it anymore.

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

Lancaster is a town couched in history and surrounded by Mennonites. Let’s concern ourselves with the skies above.

At 1253PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting a temperature of 39 degrees with overcast skies. A weak trough moving through the Canadian Maritimes is helping to generate some clouds and flurries in the Appalachians, but there wasn’t enough energy to bring any of that snow to Lancaster, and the tilt of the trough was all wrong for maximizing instability in Lancaster. It will be shuttled off shore by the afternoon, and a narrow upper level ridge will build overnight.
That weak ridge will lead to high pressure and a pleasant day tomorrow. It may not warm as substantially as it will in the Ohio Valley thanks to geographical influences, but it will be dry tomorrow in Lancaster. A less favorable trough will set up for Sunday, one conducive for drawing moisture north from the Gulf Stream. Heavy rain will be possible in Philadelphia, but where it will be cooler, there will be snow. A weakly developing low off the Delmarva will do enough to start importing cold air as far to the southeast as Lancaster, and accumulating snow seems possible for Lancaster Sunday afternoon and evening, though as the surface system develops, it will start to cycle in dry air and cut off precipitation shortly after sunset.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 30, Low 13
Sunday – Rain changing to snow in the afternoon, with about an inch of accumulation possible, then clearing late, High 37, Low 23

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny, High 32, Low 16
Sunday – Rain, High 40, Low 26

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cold High 29, Low 11
Sunday – Not as cold with periods of rain High 42, Low 23

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 29, Low 10
Sunday – A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy High 42, Low 26

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 28, Low 10
Sunday – Cloudy with a chance of rain or snow. High 42, Low 25

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 30, Low 10
Sunday – Mostly Cloudy with Chance of Light Wintry Mix High 43, low 27

FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening. High 28, Low 14
Sunday – Mixed precipitation until afternoon. High 41, Low 28

After I mentioned yesterday that there is a new model upgrade, I sort of went against guidance. I went colder and snowier. The snow isn’t really counter to what many people were thinking, but the cooler temps on Sunday is. This is going to be a fun one to watch. Speaking of fun, check out this nifty satellite image. Those banded clouds are the result of gravity waves, caused by cold air rolling over a stable environment.

Rochester, Minnesota to Lancaster, Pennsylvania

Are you ready for two days of Great Lakes grazing? We will cover 1040 miles at a pace of 61.9mph. That means that the majority of our drive will be on day two, as day one, which will get us through Chicago, will be over ager only about 495 miles. What do you think? Shall we see how this goes?

I have to say, it looks nearly like a winter pattern across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, with a trough digging in and recycling cooler damper air into Minnesota. Usually, this causes persistent snow across the state, but usually, when there is a pattern like this, it’s about 60 degrees cooler. Instead, for much of the day in Minnesota and Wisconsin, it will simply be sun dappled, with mostly cloudy skies spitting out a few rain showers here and there. We will get into a dry slot around Rockford and follow that through Chicago into Howe, Indiana, the stop for Saturday evening.

The low will sink slightly to the southeast overnight, and as we wake up on the northern edge of Indiana, there is a very good chance we will find a light rain falling on our car. This light rain and drizzle will continue through Toledo, at which point will run into a break in the action. We will finally catch up to the cold front ,which will be stalling along the coast, as we reach Harrisburg, and then quite suddenly, it will be raining again. Heavily. There may even be some thunder in Lancaster as our drive comes to an end.

Lancaster, Pennsylvania to Hickory, North Carolina

We are going to spend a day driving through the Appalachians, in one of the parts of the country where there is a little bit of weather today. Will it continue tomorrow for the 503 miles between the cities? We will cover the ground over the course of a day at 62.3mph. Lets be on our way!

A stalled front continues to lie from the Mid-Atlantic to the central Gulf of Mexico. A weak low will rise out of the Gulf through the day and lift into Virginia by the time we get going tomorrow morning. It will be very rainy in Lancaster as we get out of town. The first jaunt of the trip takes us west towards Harrisburg. This stretch of route will bring about some sleet and maybe freezing rain. It’s going to be nasty. That sleet will be a possibility south through Hagerstown, when temperatures will begin to jump up above freezing into the low 40s. Riding on the east side of the Appalachians, we will continue to see some rain. It will begin to taper off around Roanoke. The dreary, drizzly business will continue even after Roanoke, to complete the crummy day’s drive. Too bad, because the drive would otherwise be scenic. Hopefully we can stay in Hickory long enough for things to clear out so we can see the sites.

Serene Skies

The expected quiet weather in Lancaster didn’t disappoint, with some pleasant daytime highs, but a bit chillier Friday morning as high pressure ruled the region. The mostly sunny skies led to the NWS nabbing the top spot.

Thursday: High 57, Low 34.
Friday: High 62, Low 28.
Forecast Grade: A

Lancaster, Pennsylvania

Ahh, here we are, back to forecasting. I spent the past week out west, so of course we’re going to the east coast to forecast.

At 1053PM, ET, Lancaster was reporting a temperature of 46 degrees with clear skies. A weak ridge of high pressure was covering the east coast, leaving the entire region clear of any clouds or fog, on top of the dearth of precipitation. A system in Canada is bringing a few showers to the Northern Plains, and the strength of the associated jet suggests it will not fade quickly.
The jet streak is a part of am almost circular pattern that doesn’t show much proclivity for an eastward progression. Expect the system over the plains to lift north to the east. The overall flow of the jet will continue to rip through the same path it rides along, but will not have the same jet strength. The continued vorticity through the Ohio Valley will create redeveloping systems along the river, however none of it will be able to creep far enough east to be of influence for Lancaster.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 56, Low 35
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 57, Low 30

TWC: Tomorrow – Mainly sunny High 57, Low 35
Friday – Abundant sunshine. High 59, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with sunshine against a deep blue sky High 55, Low 32
Friday – Sunny and nice High 60, Low 30

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 57, Low 24
Friday – Sunny High 61, Low 31

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 57, Low 34
Friday – Sunny, High 61, Low 32

So, sunny skies. It took me forever to write this… I’m not really back in the swing of things yet. Here is the satellite.