As we sit around watching the destruction of Florence in and around Wilmington, we can think back to last week when it was Gordon we were worried with. He traveled up towards the Great Lakes, and is now a floating mass of detritus in eastern Canada. Before it got to that point, there had been a chance that the feature would bring a little bit of rain to Knoxville, and it sure did. It brought a very little bit of rain to Knoxville. The mountains deflected wet inflow, for the most part, and they stayed dry until a tail extending from the storm brought a little bit of moisture to Rocky Top. There was a 4 way tie atop the leaderboard that would have been undone by Forecast.io, had they had any rain at all in the forecast. Actuals: Saturday – High 89, low 71 Sunday – .01 inches of rain, High 89, Low 71
Our sojourn to the south is nearly at an end, but we have one more stop in eastern Tennessee. The Smokey Mountains have a microclimate that allows for a great deal more fog and haze than other parts of the country. Is that going to show up in our temperature forecasts?
At 153PM, ET, Knoxville was reporting a temperature of 88 degrees with sunny skies. The remnants of Gordon lingered over northern Arkansas, and the flow enhanced a stationary boundary south of the Ohio River. Because of this enhancement, warm, moist air was being entrained into the boundary at an elevated pace, and the orographic lift over the Smokeys was leading to some isolated thunderstorms in and around the peaks of the region.
As the remnants of Gordon move northeast towards Ohio, generally following along with the existing stationary boundary, though lifting it northward ever so slightly, the warm sector, including Knoxville, will become even more embedded within a very moist, unstable flow. Because the feed into Knoxville will be over the mountains, expect a fairly dry, if muggy Saturday, but things will get a bit more active as a well defined cold front develops through the Tennessee Valley, and moved into town on Sunday night.
Tomorrow – Isolated showers and storms, especially in the afternoon, High 87, Low 72
Sunday – Mostly sunny, with increasing clouds and rain late, High 86, Low 71
TWC: Tomorrow – Partial cloudiness early, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 89, Low 69
Sunday – Considerable cloudiness. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible. High 87, Low 69
AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and sun, a thunderstorm; humid High 87, Low 70
Sunday – Mostly cloudy, humid; a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 85, Low 69
NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, partly sunny, High 87, Low 70
Sunday – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny High 87, Low 70
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thudnerstorms in the morning, then chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 89, Low 73
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms, High 86, Low 73
WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 87 Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with scattered showers, High 87, Low 60
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day.High 88, Low 70
Sunday – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 881, Low 71
You don’t have to be along a coast to be affected with tropical features, but fortunately for Knoxville, you do need a mountain range to find yourself in a rain shadow. Here is the radar showing the popcorn showers and storms presently ongoing.
After a cold front grazed the Smokey Mountains, bringing a trace of snow mixed with rain to the Knoxville area, something unexpected happened. Temperatures bounced back in a big way on Monday afternoon. There was some anticipation that there would be a recovery with warmer temperatures later in the week, but they jumped 6-10 degrees over what our forecast outlets predicted. It made sense, synoptically when looking at the moderation of a jet trough in the region but we were all slow to the party. Forecast.io had few errors besides that Monday high, and won the day.
Sunday – Trace of snow, .03 inches of rain, High 44, Low 35
Monday – Trace of snow, High 47, Low 28
We’re headed southeast to the Smokey Mountains for today’s forecast. What will happen at the University of Tennessee over the next two days?
At 653PM, ET, Knoxville was reporting a temperature of 44 degrees with clear skies. They were between waves rotating around the area of circulation still hovering along the Labrador Coast. Flurries were beginning to show up on radar northeast of Crossville, though no sites were reporting any south of the Ohio River. There were winter weather advisories issued for the higher terrain surrounding eastern Tennessee, foretelling snow becoming able to reach the ground.
The deepest part of the trough will dig into eastern Tennessee by Sunday afternoon, bringing with it an increase in the snow shower activity through the evening. Aloft, the nose of a jet will push into the area by Monday morning, pushing out the last remnants of snow. It will be rather chilly on Monday, but a recovery in temperatures will be right around the corner.
Tomorrow – A few snow and rain showers, breezy. High 43, Low 32
Monday – early snow, otherwise becoming mostly sunny, High 40, Low 28
TWC: Tomorrow – Rain and snow in the morning. The rain and snow will change to rain showers in the afternoon. High 42, Low 33
Monday – Mostly cloudy skies early will become partly cloudy later in the day. (early snow) High 40, Low 27
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy and chilly with a rain or snow shower in spots High 42, Low 33
Monday – A snow shower early on in the morning; otherwise, chilly with clouds and sunny spells High 41, Low 28
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow between 9am and 11am, then rain likely after 11am. Cloudy High 43, Low 33
Monday – A 10 percent chance of snow before 7am. Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 28
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, a chance of snow or rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Snow likely late in the afternoon. Little to no accumulation, HIgh 40, Low 35
Monday – Mostly sunny (early snow) High 41, Low 31
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with chance of light wintry mix, High 41, Low 34
Monday – Partly cloudy, High 37, Low 27
FIO: Tomorrow – Light rain starting in the afternoon. High 45, Low 32
Monday- Flurries overnight. High 43, Low 28
That’s a pretty uniform forecast for one with snow showers. This is because this storm isn’t very dynamic this far south. It’s pretty easy to figure out what’s going on. Here is the radar, showing something emerging northeast from Crossville.
Today we are heading from scenic Eastern Tennessee all the way up into the heart of Illinois, where my cousin goes to school at! 528 miles separate these 2 cities, so it will only take us 1 day to traverse the distance. Will it be pleasant as this holiday weekend has been so far? Let’s take a look!
High pressure is found throughout the region, so dry weather is anticipated for the entirety of today’s trip. Some overcast skies are expected for our departure out of Knoxville, but they’re expected to break up by mid-morning with still mostly cloudy skies, but much higher up than the morning’s stratus deck. Winds aren’t expected to be an issue either, staying under 10mph for pretty much the entire day. The only thing that might slow us down is some construction between Louisville and Indianapolis, but the rest of the trip should be easy going!
Hey, it’s another short little trip. It’s just a half day trek through the hills of eastern Kentucky to eastern Tennessee and the lovely metropolis of Knoxville. 245 miles separate the two towns, and we will cover the ground at a pace of about 61.6mph. We don’t have far to go, so let’s be on our way!
An area of low pressure moving out of the central Plains will begin to pull in a stout southwesterly flow that will serve to warm up our route quite a bit. It’s been a while, but this could definitely be a “windows down” kind of trip. No problems during the drive to Knoxville!
It sure was chilly on Friday morning in Knoxville. Temperatures dipped to 5 degrees on Friday morning, which is dangerously cold for a population unaccustomed to such temperatures. A windy front howled through eastern Tennessee yesterday, with winds nearly hitting 40 degrees, with a few flakes riding the breeze. The winds did carry warmer air, though, so there was a 10 degree warm up with the afternoon high. The Weather Channel had the best temperature forecast, but were the only ones not to include snow. They ended up tied with the Weatherbug as a result.
Actuals: Friday, High 28, Low 5
Saturday – Trace of snow, High 38, Low 22
Time for the 3rd trip of the week, but this time, it will be a bit more manageable, as we head only from Alabama to Tennessee. It will be a one day trek, covering 342 miles and lasting just over 5 hours. That’s barely a tank of gas! Our average speed will be about 64mph, but only if we follow the speed limit everywhere. (They drive fast in Birmingham)
Tomorrow is going to be unusually cold for the south. Even from Montgomery north through Alabama, we might now reach freezing at any point of the day. There will be fairly calm winds between some return flow showers along the Texas Coast and our advancing cold front north of Tennessee. We will have one issue that always seems to come up on road trips. It will be chilly when we leave, but sunny through the trip, so the car will heat up. Your jacket will be unbearable, and you will attempt to take it off while driving. That’s obviously dangerous. It will also be frustrating if you have to stop for gas and get out in the cold before Knoxville.
To the hills of eastern Tennessee for our forecast today. A lot of moisture has been expended in this part of the world this winter. More of the same this weekend?
At 1253PM, ET, Knoxville was reporting a temperature of 26 degrees with a vigorous westerly breeze and mostly cloudy skies. A cold front has pressed east of the Appalachians, allowing the infiltration of Arctic air and the brisk westerly winds. High pressure will hold fast through the day tomorrow into the early morning on Saturday, meaning mostly sunny skies with chilly temperatures.
An area of low pressure operating within the upper level trough bringing the cold weather will move through the Hudson Bay area, but will dangle a cold front into the Tennessee Valley. There won’t be a lot of moisture associated with the system, but the chilly temperatures, and the retreat of the upper level trough will make for some potentially dangerous conditions, with light, fluffy snow driven by fairly gusty winds, creating some major visibility issues.
Tomorrow – Chilly but mostly sunny, High 25, Low 9
Saturday – Light snow possible with gusty winds, High 36 Low 17
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 28, Low 5
Saturday – AM Clouds / PM Sun Hih 40, Low 19
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and cold; extreme cold can be dangerous for outdoor activities in the morning High 25, Low 7
Saturday – Partly sunny, windy and chilly with a snow shower High 39, Low 17
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 26, Low 7
Saturday – A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Partly sunny High 40, Low 16
WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 25, Low 6
Saturday – Partly sunny. A chance of snow showers in the morning…then a slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Brisk High 39, Low 17
I’m not s confident in Knoxville’s ability to warm up on Saturday thanks to that second round of flurries and northwest winds. We’ll see what happens.
Given the weather that’s moved through the eastern US over the last 24-48 hours, the Knoxville area enjoyed a couple days of relatively nice weather. Today they got hit by a strong thunderstorm that dumped nearly an inch of rain! For the last couple of days that February normally finishes with, however, temperatures moved up into the 70s with a somewhat chilly start to each morning. TWC narrowly edged out VW and WB for the win.
Monday: High 65, Low 39.
Tuesday: High 70, Low 37.
Forecast Grade: B