We’re getting out of the southeast, and, ironically, the place where all the snow is falling and headed to western New York.
At 153PM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 28 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Bands of lake effect snow stretched from Syracuse to Binghamton, but the prevailing flow looked to keep snow north of Elmira. Weak high pressure coupled with the still lingering area of low pressure that brought some snow to New England last week.
As is usual, the northeast will have to keep an eye on the low centered over the Northeast, given their propensity for following the Gulf Stream. The storm is losing some of it’s jet support, but recent model trends indicate it will have some for a bit longer than originally forecast. This support will guide the storm further west than had been thought yesterday, headed towards the major cities on the Eastern Seaboard. A strong jet trough will do it’s art to generate a broad area of low pressure which will absorb the smaller, stronger low over the Mid Atlantic. The broader low, using some of the leftover energy from the stronger system will pivot around each other and influence areas further inland than most nor’easters do, including bringing snow to the Elmira area starting tomorrow evening, then lasting through the day Tuesday. Total snowfall will be less than they typically see, as most of the heavy moisture will come from the Atlantic rather than the Great Lakes, and will subsequently be cut off by the Appalachians.
Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, with some snow late, High 26, Low 9
Wednesday – Persistent light snow through the day (Total accumulations 2-5″), High 27, Low 17
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early. A few snow showers developing later in the day High 29, Low 14
Wednesday – Periods of snow High 25, Low 22
AW: Tomorrow – Some sunshine giving way to clouds (snow late, 2’4″ overnight) High 26, Low 12
Wednesday – Cloudy and windy with snow showers, accumulating up to an additional inch High 28, Low 18
NWS: Tomorrow – .Partly sunny in the morning…then mostly cloudy with snow likely in the afternoon High 25, Low 10
Wednesday – Snow showers. Additional light snow accumulation High 25, Low 17
WB: Tomorrow – Partly sunny in the morning…then mostly cloudy with snow likely in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation High 25, Low 11
Wednesday – Snow showers. Additional light snow accumulation. High 26, Low 20
Got some issues with the Weather Service page today, and it isn’t giving the point forecast like usual. Pretty wide variety of snow totals in the forecast as well, so that’s interesting. It’s not often that I’m at the high end. Satellite shows the Lake Effect snows coming off of Lake Ontario into New York.