Problems with the low
Posted by Ryan
Elmira was a tricky forecast for a few people. There was a thunderstorm in town on Tuesday, and some spotty showers on Wednesday, but the real issue for the Weather Service and Weatherbug were lows. Tuesday, temperatures stayed warmer overnight than expected, while the opposite situation came to be on Wednesday. Actually, the lows were only different by 4 degrees, but the forecast lows from the NWS and Weatherbug were different by 15 degrees. Victoria Weather, with our more baseline forecast had the top spot in Elmira.
Actuals: Tuesday - .19 inches of rain in a thunderstorm, High 79, Low 60
Wednesday - .03 inches of rain, High 87, Low 64
Grade: B
Elmira, New York
Posted by Ryan
Our forecast today will be from Western New York, and what is becoming a recent favorite, Elmira. How will it go? Let's find out.
At 1153AM, ET, Elmira was reporting a temperature of 77 degrees with clear skies. There were a few lingering clouds leftover from the early morning in the valleys to the east, but generally the state of New York was quiet. Overall, flow aloft was rather dormant as well, however with summer time heating in full affect, even the slightest ripple will be cause for thunderstorm concern.
One such lower level disturbance will shoot from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes and into western New York by tomorrow evening. A few afternoon and evening thunderstorms are certainly a possibility, however after this little bundle of energy arrives in town, it will languish without any upper level support, meaning Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some drizzle in the area, however a developing system to the west will generate a substantial southerly flow, bringing with it some hot weather.
Tomorrow - Evening thunderstorms, High 82, Low 55
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy, with showers around, High 85, Low 63
TWC: Tomorrow - Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe High 83, Low 57
Wednesday - Scattered thunderstorms High 85, Low 66
AW: Tomorrow - Times of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm around in the afternoon high 86, Low 50
Wednesday - Showers and a heavier t-storm; mostly cloudy and humid with the temperature near the record of 93 High 91, Low 63
NWS: Tomorrow - Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Mostly cloudy High 85, Low 54
Wednesday - Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 84, Low 69
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny in the morning...then mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon High 86, Low 55
Wednesday - Mostly cloudy in the morning...then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms High 85, Low 70
It will certainly be interesting to see what happens on Wednesday. The model outputs are saying 90, which is what Accuweather (even MORE hurricanes!) is buying, but all the auxiliary data says that there isn't a chance in heck they get quite that warm. We shall see. Below is a satellite littered with popcorn cumulus clouds.
Elmira, New York to Ocean City, New Jersey
Posted by Ryan
Our trip is short for Saturday, as we will only be moving from one state to the next state over. It's a 5 hour drive that covers about 302 miles. It will be a slow way, because we won't get to take the interstate too much, and we'll only average 57mph. How will the day go? Let's find out.
It's been a very active couple of weeks to begin the summer across the northern tier of states. This won't change for our trip through the Mid Atlantic on Saturday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the day, I suppose, but I wouldn't worry about them until it's around 1 in the afternoon, by which time we will be in Allentown, Pennsylvania. After that, some storms may follow us into Ocean City, but really, I just think it's going to be dry and hot. Well, humid, but you know what I mean.
Seems like it should be easier
Posted by Ryan
The temperature and precip totals for Elmira were exactly the same on Monday and Tuesday. So why were the forecasts so errant? Well, it wasn't terribly cloudy, but those that were there did keep the temperatures from climbing over 70 or dropping below 45, which meant that the spreads from our vaunted forecasters were a little off on every verifying time. The Weather Channel had the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday, High 69, Low 46
Tuesday, High 69, Low 46
Grade: C
Elmira, New York
Posted by Ryan
It looks like a stormy day for most of the East Coast today, as a tornado watch has been posted from Portland, Maine to Philadelphia. How will it be just inland?
At 1153AM, ET, Elmira was behind the front causing the severe weather in New York, and was seeing clear skies with a temperature of 80 degrees. An isolated thunderstorm was still being seen northeast of Ithaca, and there was a remote chance it might clip the city before it eventually fades, and the rest of the day will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures dropping precipitously.
The jet is generally laminar across the country, with a perturbation moving through New England leading to the thunderstorm activity. While high pressure behind the system isn't strong, it will take hold with the smooth flow aloft for Elmira to begin the next week. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist to begin the week.
Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy, High 70, Low 45
Tuesday - Partly to mostly cloudy, High 73, Low 39
TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny skies High 71, Low 47
Tuesday - Partly cloudy. High 75, Low 45
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 72, Low 45
Tuesday - Sunshine and some clouds High 73, Low 40
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 71, Low 47
Tuesday - Mostly sunny, High 74, Low 43
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny. High 71, Low 47
Tuesday - Mostly sunny. High 74, Low 43
And here is the radar, showing Elmira almost out of the woods.
Portland, Maine to Elmira, New York
Posted by Ryan
We're taking one day to travel through interior New England, driving from beautiful downstate Maine to beautiful downstate New York. The 462 miles of the trip are mostly not on major interstates, and we won't move terribly swiftly. We will only inch along at 60mph, but it's all right, given the scenery.
There is a cold front setting itself up through the mid Atlantic, kind of following an arcing path through that area. It's going to set off some thunderstorms over eastern New York this afternoon, but will slowly drift out of our route tonight. We're going to have to deal with some trailing showers, probably after we reach the Oneonta, New York area lasting into Elmira, but the rest of the drive will be quiet and very easily manageable. Enjoy the drive!
