Autumn beckons
Posted by Ryan
There is a phrase that would be at home on a dating website. Anywho, the weather in Eau Claire to end last week was that cool, cloudy, spitty type of atmosphere that I commonly associate with the beginning of fall. It never got out of the 50s, and there was at least a drip of rain each Thursday and Friday. It might as well have been snow, if you ask me. The Weather Service and Weatherbug, despite actually having a different forecast, ended up tying for the top forecast.
Actuals: Thursday - .01 inches of rain, High 52, Low 41
Friday - Trace of rain, High 59, Low 40
Grade: B
Eau Claire, Wisconsin to Ocala, Florida
Posted by Ryan
With the cool air coming into Wisconsin this week, it may seem like it's time for a trip to Florida. I say it is. The trip will take just short of three days and cover 1401 miles. This puts us at a pace of 63.2 mph, or 505.8 miles a day. We have some driving to do, so let's pack our bags!
DAY ONE
An area of low pressure parked over the Great Lakes is just that: parked. We will move more on Friday than it will. We are underneath the upper level trough for the entire drive, which means cool weather and clouds, with an outside chance at some showers within those clouds. It won't be a terribly difficult drive, but all the clouds will make it pretty depressing.
DAY TWO
That trough is just going to keep digging as we keep driving south. The scattered showers won't follow us much further south than Nashville, but some clouds and unseasonably cool weather will make their way to Acworth, Georgia, which is a suburb on the north side of Atlanta. We're still looking for that vacation weather!
DAY THREE
The skies may actually clear out for most of the trip through Georgia, but that same pesky low is going to continue to do an excellent job of directing flow and ruining vacations. The southwesterly flow will bring about the chances for some scattered showers and storms as we clamber through the rest of the trip. Still, temperatures wil be in the upper 80s between thunderstorms, so it is a marked improvement from whence we came.
Eau Claire, Wisconsin
Posted by Ryan
Just east of us here in St. Paul, we head to The burg of Eau Claire
At 1256PM, ET, Eau Claire was reporting light rain with a temperature of 55 degrees. A well formed, whirling area of low pressure over the western Great Lakes had already pushed it's cold front through most of Wisconsin, but there was still plenty of moisture associated with the center of circulation, causing the clouds and light rain presently seen across the area.
The upper level trough associated with this system is sharp enough that is not moving well with the overall pattern. Eau Claire, while it may dry out, will still remain underneath the trough. The sharp northerly jet will keep some mid to high level clouds, and the placement of the jet will indicate some rather cool temperatures for Eau Claire.
Tomorrow - Overcast, High 55, Low 41
Friday - Mostly cloudy, High 59, Low 38
TWC: Tomorrow - Cloudy in the morning, then off and on rain showers during the afternoon hours High 57, Low 40
Friday - Occasional showers possible. High 61, Low 40
AW: Tomorrow - Variable cloudiness with a shower in places; cool High 54, Low 43
Friday - Variable cloudiness with a stray shower; warmer High 61, Low 41
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 52, Low 43
Friday - Partly sunny, High 58, Low 39
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers. High 52, Low 42
Friday - Partly cloudy. High 58, Low 38
Boy, that seems really cold, especially when we just verified a place with a 90 degree high two days in a row. This is a cool satellite, as you can make out the rotation around the low over northern Wisconsin. Neat looking, right?
Eau neau!
Posted by Ryan
First, I would like to apologize for forgetting to press the publish button on yesterday's post. It's up now, and actually, the flights in question don't depart for a couple of hours. Apologies.
That wasn't the other big problem discovered in the forecasts lately. Eau Claire was a problem for all forecasters. Here in Minneapolis, but an hour and a half away from Eau Claire, we never found our way out of the ceilings. They were able to get up to 77 and 80, which was about 10-15 degrees warmer than it was here. To the credit of meteorologists every where, we were fairly close on those highs, but the lows were another story. Way too cool from everyone. Good news for Eau Claire, I guess, and indicative of the clouds shipping out AFTER sunrise on Saturday. There was a little bit of drizzle as well on Friday before the weather improved on Saturday. The Weather Channel had the top forecast in town.
Actuals: Friday - Trace of rain, High 77, Low 54
Saturday - High 80, Low 57
Grade: C
Eau Claire, Wisconsin
Posted by Ryan
We're off to western Wisconsin for the day's forecast. Eau Claire is a tiny town that my car seems to break down near every time I drive by.
At 1056AM, CT, Eau Claire was reporting a temperature of 60 with low clouds. The same area of low pressure that has been causing so many problems for the eastern half of the country was now slugging it's way through the Great Lakes, and a mess of low clouds dominated the Upper Midwest.
The trough fostering this low is becoming more laminar over time, which is causing the surface low to become more distended and bloated. This won't help it move east out of the region, however some upper ridging will help force the trough into a narrower, more progressive form late tonight. This weak upper ridge is expected to lose it's strength, with mid-level trough developing underneath, bringing a few showers into western Wisconsin again on Saturday night.
Tomorrow - Clearing and warmer, High 75, Low 50
Saturday - Late PM showers, High 78, Low 50
TWC: Tomorrow - Chance of a shower or two during the morning, followed by partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. High 75, Low 51
Saturday - Partly cloudy High 78, Low 50
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny and warmer High 76, Low 52
Saturday - Partly sunny and nice High 77, Low 48
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 73, Low 51
Saturday - Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 51
WB: Tomorrow - Warmer. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing High 73, Low 51
Saturday - Partly cloudy High 76, Low 51
I am the only one calling for rain on Saturday night. I don't know, it's been drizzly for days, and the weather never forgets. SAtellite shows a wonderful day for the Upper Midwest.
WORST FORECAST EVER
Posted by Ryan
No, seriously, I have never seen a forecast this bad before. I'm talking about Eau Claire and specifically what Accuweather had going on. If you'll recall, the GFS and NAM were once again wildly divergent, particularly on temperatures and the time Arctic air would invade. With ceilings in the area, I immediately discredited the very cold GFS and hedged toward the NAM. Turns out, I should have gone full board with the NAM, because temepratures were very warm, almost perfectly in line with that model. Accuweather, who went gung ho for the GFS paid for it. For the Sunday low, they were off 15 degrees. Monday high (they had steadily falling temperatures, so both days were non standard), they were off 17 degrees. Monday low, they were off 11 degrees. All told, they were off a combined 49 degrees. AND they didn't forecast the flurries Eau Claire reported yesterday. I really can't get over what a disaster that forecast was. It may well be the worst we've ever seen here at Victoria-Weather. Anyways, nobody else did great with the forecast, hedging away from the NAM a bit, but still, the forecasts were a dream comparatively. Victoria-Weather and the Weather Service tied for hte top forecast.
Actuals: Sunday - High 32, Low 22
Monday - Snow reported, High 24, Low 2
Grade: D
Eau Claire, Wisconsin
Posted by Ryan
Finally, the long awaited Eau Claire forecast. It's actually pleasant and almost warm in western Wisconsin today.
At 256PM, CT, Eau Claire was reporting a temperature of 26 degrees with overcast skies and light fog. Warm tempatures between temperatures have led to the evaporation of some of the snow pack, and a great deal of fog across the region. A fairly weak string of troughing isn't helping, with an inverted trough extending from a low moving through New England overlapping with a very disorganized clipper arriving from the Dakotas.
The weak clipper over western Canada is actually on the western side of a mean trough dominating the country. Not only is it a typically unfavorable area for the development of a system, but it's support is from the entrance region of a poorly developed undercutting jet streak. The next two days will continue to be dreary for Eau Claire, but seasonably warm with the chance for some very light flurries across the region, as there will be little to motivate the grime out, and just enough instability to exasperate the cloudy skies. There is a bit of cold air that will move into the area as an upper level wave finally comes to be late on Monday.
Tomorrow - Cloudy with flurries, High 28, Low 16
Monday - Cloudy skies continue with flurries, High 20, Low 7 (non standard)
TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy with scattered snow flurries and snow showers. High 28, Low 16
Monday - Cloudy with occasional flurries High 16, Low 9
AW: Tomorrow- A thick cloud cover and colder High 26, Low 7
Monday - Cloudy and colder High 7, Low -9
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of snow. Cloudy High 27, Low 16
Monday - A 20 percent chance of snow before noon. Mostly cloudy High 17, Low 1
WB: Tomorrow - Cloudy. A chance of snow in the morning...then a slight chance of snow in the afternoon. High 29, Low 17
Monday - Colder. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy (early snow). High 16, Low 11
All of the other forecasts are decidedly non standard. The GFS and NAM are completely different on temperatures in Eau Claire, and the way things have gone, the GFS has been garbage for a month. That model is going for the cold temperatures, and I have mostly eschewed that solution in favor of the model that has proven it's worth this month. Hopefully, that doesn't come back to bite me. Or frostbite Eau Claire.
