I posted recently about the tornado that dropped just to the east of Dayton, Ohio, and drifted north of the city, bringing down some power lines and trees throughout the region. Well, as I reviewed the verification numbers for our forecast last week, I saw that Wright Air Force Base near Dayton actually reported the twister as it crossed the airport grounds on Wednesday. The verification took place at Dayton’s commercial airport, which had slightly different temperature figures, but did not report any funnels of any sort. It also informed us that Forecast.io and The Weather Channel drew level in claiming the top forecast for Dayton.
Actuals: Wednesday – .92 inches of rain/thunderstorms (no tornadoes!): High 7-0, Low 58
Thursday – .04 inches of rain, High 70, Low 58
Let’s head out for a forecast in southwestern Ohio. Shall we?
At 756PM, ET, Dayton was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A sharp, late season trough over the Great Lakess was producing a surface area of low pressure in the lower Ohio Valley, while a leading band of precipitation ran from Virginia southward as a surface low was amplifying instability in that area. Ohio found itself between the two features, but that was not to be a long lived situation.
The broader, upper level low will shift from being centered over Illinois east towards Ohio. As the coastal feature shifts off shore by the early afternoon, the Gulf will be opened and moisture will flood northward. Expect widespread showers across Dayton through most of the afternoon on Wednesday and throughout the day on Thursday as the bloated feature drifts eastward. The best threat for heavy rain, or even an isolated thunderstorm will be late Wednesday when the center of circulation moves overhead. Thursday will see much lighter precipitation with wrap around moisture falling as drizzle.
Tomorrow – Rain with an embedded thunderstorm, mostly in the afternoon and evening, High 68, Low 55
Thursday – Light rain, High 64, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms in the morning becoming more widespread in the afternoon. High 71, Low 58
Thursday – Cloudy with occasional rain showers. High 67. Low 56
AW: Tomorrow – Not as warm with periods of rain and a thunderstorm High 69, Low 58
Thursday – Mostly cloudy and cool with a few showers High 64, Low 55
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after noon. High 67, Low 57
Thursday – A chance of showers. Cloudy, High 66, Low 54
WB: Tomorrow – Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms, High 67, Low 58
Thursday – Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers, High 64, Low 56
WN: Tomorrow – Cloudy with showers, High 66, Low 57
Thursday – Mostly cloudy with scattered showers High 66, Low 54
FIO: Tomorrow – Rain starting in the afternoon. High 71, Low 59
Thursday – Light rain until evening.High 66, Low 58
If this was the winter, Dayton would be in for a great deal of snow, thanks to the slow moving nature of this system, and the temperature change would be much more pronounced. Instead, it’s just going to be gray and dull. Here is the satellite, with clouds across most of the region, but none of those bubbly rain clouds over the Dayton area….for now.
We went with a new video format for the forecast in Dayton on the first, and it looks like it paid off! The weather was destined t be cloudy, as Dayton found itself in a difficult to clear swath of low to midlevel clouds. There wasn’t much degradation to the cloud deck on Saturday, which meant that the diurnal temperature variation only jumped from 5 to 7 degrees. That’s a little unpleasant, but at least it was above freezing, and at least Victoria-Weather was able to claim victory.
Actuals: Friday – High 39, Low 34
Saturday – High 39, Low 32
Would it surprise you to know that Rome is actually a shade west of Dayton? It did me! We are cutting across a couple of narrow states, so despite covering 4 states, our drive will last about 7 hours and cover 468 miles. Expect a pace of about 68mph as we make our way through the Appalachans, and near a part of the country that has been ravaged by wildfires.
Just in the short time since we put together a forecast for Rome earlier this evening, the GFS, the more aggressive model this afternoon, has slowed a that is presently organizing in Texas way down. We all had a forecast for rain in Rome by the end of the day, after a vast but fairly weak ridge occupied the region in the morning. Instead of rain in Rome when we get there I think we are going to instead see a few high clouds as they begin to filter in. It’s definitely going to rain overnight and extensively on Sunday, but the trip through Appalachia will be dry and scenic.
Tomorrow – Overcast, High 40, Low 34
Saturday – Mostly cloudy, High 42, Low 31
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy skies. High 42, Low 34
Saturday – Partly cloudy skies. High 43, Low 29
AW: Tomorrow – Rather cloudy and breezy High 42, Low 31
Saturday – Periods of clouds and sun High 41, Low 29
NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 39, low 32
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 41, Low 28
WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy, High 41, Low 35
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 40, Low 30
WN: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, High 39, Low 32
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 28
FIO: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy throughout the day. High 44, Low 33
Saturday – Partly cloudy throughout the day. High 43, Low 29
There you go. I hope you appreciated the change in taping technology! I know I sure do.
A lot ore rain mixed in with the precipitation in Dayton as an icy storm moved into the Mid Atlantic. It wasn’t necessarily as bad in Ohio as it was to the east, mostly because there was more easily plowable snow instead of a healthy dose of ice all over the roads. Whatever I interpreted for WeatherNation wasn’t comparatively bad, but they did end up in last place, well behind the daily champs, the Weather Channel.
Actuals: Wednesday – .5 inches of snow, .14 inches of total liquid precip, High 29, Low 20
Thursday – .4 inches of snow, High 21, Low 2
WeatherNation’s second forecast will be a hair more challenging than the one in San Diego.
At 756PM, ET, Dayton was reporting moderate snow with a temperature of 24 degrees. Snow was in response to an upper level low that was being reflected at the surface over the mouth of the Mississippi. The upper low was centered over Missouri, and as a result, a great deal of warm air was overriding surface clouds and precipitation, all the way to the upper level warm front, which was near the Ohio River. As a result, an ice storm warning is in effect for Cincinnati, while a winter storm warning was in place for Dayton.
Ice is still a possibility overnight in Dayton on top of the significant snow they will be seeing, which will accumulate in the 6-10″ range. A tendril of warm air at the upper levels will reach into southwestern Ohio shortly after midnight, and a few hours of sleet or freezing rain seem likely. The upper level cold front will usher the warm layer out, and precipitation will continue to fall as snow. The snow will taper through the day, though flurries will remain possible well into the afternoon tomorrow, with clouds finally breaking own late in the day, and much cooler air will take hold. Fortunately, even though Thursday will be colder, it will also be partly cloudy and dry.
Tomorrow – Ice in the early morning hours, then snow for the rest of the day. Storm totals up to 10″. High 29, Low 13
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 15, Low 8
TWC: Tomorrow – Snow Shower (wintry mix early) High 28, Low 20
Thursday – Partly Cloudy High 16, Low 8
AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy, breezy and cold with a couple of snow showers; storm total snowfall 3-6 inches, High 28, Low 13
Thursday – Colder with sunshine and patchy clouds High 13, Low 1
NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of snow, mainly before noon. Mostly cloudy (freezing rain/sleet early) High 27, Low 14
Thursday – Partly sunny, High 13, Low 5
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. (freezing rain/sleet early) High 27, Low 13
Thursday – Partly cloudy High 17, Low 7
WN: Tomorrow – Scattered Snow Showers (freezing rain early) High 27, Low 12
Thursday – Partly Cloudy High 12, Low 7
And now, we find that WeatherNation’s interface is very confusing. There will be falling temperatures through the day tomorrow (WeatherNation doesn’t have hourly forecasts) and they don’t have an overnight low for the coming night. How messed up is that? This is the best guess I came up with because it was the number pinned to “Night, February 5th” (and it didn’t match the low for what I would think would be Wednesday morning… or Thursday morning. Come to think of it, the top portion of the Dayton WeatherNation page didn’t match the extended forecast at all. So messed up.) Enough about that: Here is a very active radar. The yellow is rain, sleet and ice. Gads.
Today, we undertake a 2-day, 940-mile trip through America’s Heartland. Let’s see what the rest of the workweek has in store for this trip!
It’ll be a quiet start to the day as we head northeast out of Lawton towards Oklahoma City. For most of the morning, it should be mostly sunny with just some high clouds when we make our way past Tulsa. As we make our way past Joplin and towards Springfield, we can expect it to cloud up a little more as a couple of scattered showers/thunderstorms develop along a weak boundary setting up from Kansas to Tennessee. We’ll eventually end our night in St. Louis after dodging a couple showers in the evening, but should be mainly dry.
A cloudy start is expected to the day as southerly flow continues over the Mid-MS Valley, with perhaps a few isolated showers lingering around from the previous night. Most of the activity from the developing system in the Central US will remain west of St. Louis through mid-day, giving us a bit of a break as we head eastward through southern Illinois and past Indianapolis. Conditions will continue to improve as we push eastward into western Ohio to finish our trip at Dayton!