I think we know what the high and low in Corvallis was both Monday and Tuesday, and we had a message on Twitter during yesterday’s Twitter Tuesday from the Corvallis Visitors Bureau that informed us that it was a “beautiful sunny day“. Unfortunately, though, there was a 9 hour window where Corvallis failed to report an observation, and we can’t use the site for a verification. Know that there was a lot of sun, and the temperate was, both Monday and Tuesday, reported to be at least 80, so that’s pretty nice.
Apologies for the late post, but I’ve spend the last hour or so watching the descent of the MSL and successful touchdown/deployment of Curiosity onto the Mars surface, after a total trip of 354 million miles. So amazing to see us be able to do such an incredible thing! In other, less exciting news, I feel like I forecast a lot more for the West Coast than the RNG should otherwise give me. Perhaps it’s a sign I miss the Pacific Ocean? Or that the readers need to go visit somewhere neat? Either way, let’s go see what’s going on in Oregon!
At 2:53pm PDT, the temperature in Corvallis, OR was 93 degrees under partly cloudy skies. For some reason, the ASOS stopped reporting around then, so hopefully it gets up and going again by morning! High pressure has been controlling the Western US at the surface throughout the last few days. However, a midlevel disturbance around the 500mb level has been kicking off thunderstorms over the area in the last 24 hours as it continues to lift northward along the West Coast. Thankfully, it will clear out of the area tomorrow, leaving mostly sunny skies and warm temps in its wake. Even better news… more of the same for Tuesday! That high pressure will continue to control the region leading to sunny skies and more seasonably warm temperatures. Should be a very nice start to the workweek!
Monday – Partly cloudy. High 87, Low 59.
Tuesday – A few clouds, mostly sunny. High 86, Low 57.
TWC: Monday: Partly cloudy. High 86, Low 58.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. High 85, Low 56.
AW: Monday: Plenty of sunshine. High 88, Low 58.
Tuesday: Clouds giving way to some sun. High 88, Low 55.
NWS: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 88, Low 58.
Tuesday: Decreasing clouds. High 86, Low 53.
WB: Monday: Partly sunny. High 86, Low 59.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 85, Low 54.
It’s a west coast road trip today. It’s rarely seen, but always enjoyed. It will actually take us 3 days, even though we will only be in 4 states. The monstrous states will mean that we will be 1658 miles to get from western Oregon to southern New Mexico. That will net ourselves a pace of 65.6mph, or about 525 miles a day. Let’s see the American West!
There has been a fairly static area of low pressure parked west of the Olympic Peninsula of Washington but… now it’s gone. After a nasty, cool summer for the Pacific Northwest, things are finally looking up for the residents of western Oregon and Washington. Our drive along I-5 to the city of Clarksburg, California, a suburb south of Sacramento, will be met with little problem. Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures for the day on Sunday.
We won’t leave California on Monday, running from Sacramento south through the Los Angeles metro area and east towards Arizona. Traffic in LA will certainly be our biggest headache, and we may continue to deal with it even as we head east, because it is the main thoroughfare to Phoenix. Our day ends at Joshua Tree National Park in southern California, with no weather concerns, save for the desert heat.
One model is predicting some afternoon monsoonal thunderstorms east of Phoenix, but I think the only reason we would notice thunderstorms in Phoenix or Tucson, I believe, is because of the dust they would kick up. Believe me, though, that can be a serious problem, both for visibility, as well as for the threat of that grime getting in your engine block. There may well be some thunderstorm activity as we reach places like Willcox, Arizona and east through Deming, but if we are being completely honest, most of the wet weather will be north of Silver City, and Silver City is north of our route. There might be a stray cumulus cloud when we arrive in Las Cruces on Tuesday evening, but I think it should be pretty nice at the home of New Mexico State.
If there was a problem with the weather in Corvallis lately, it was that the winds really picked up Thursday evening. Additionally, clear skies probably were a problem for residents of western Oregon unaccustomed to seeing the sun. Sun burn! Victoria-Weather notched the top forecast, by a hair.
Actual: Wednesday – High 78, Low 48
Thursday – High 66, Low 42
Are you up for a lengthy trip? Because this one is going to take 5 1/2 days, while covering 2885 miles. That will put us on a pace of 66.58mph. That means those first 5 days on the road will cover 532.7 miles. It’s a lot of time in the car, so we had better get on the road!
It seems like we will travel so much faster early in the trip, because we will cover so many more states. Larger states are the pits. Anyways, the beginning of the drive, from Virginia to West Virginia will be fine, but a cold front sliding south through the Ohio Valley will bring about some isolated thunderstorms, starting for us when we reach Lexington, Kentucky, and continuing west to Sulphur, Indiana, where we will stop for the night. Sulphur is in the far southern part of the Hoosier state, about a half hour west of Louisville.
The day on Thursday will be quiet, which is nice, because St. Louis can be a challenge to drive through if the weather is suspect. Kansas City has never given me a problem, though. Nevertheless, neither esteemed city will be much issue during our second day of travel, which will end on the north side of St. Joseph, Missouri.
The beginning of the drive on Friday will be similarly problem free. Driving through Lincoln is never an issue. We may begin to see a chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm as soon as we hit the Nebraska Panhandle, however, as a low is developing in the northern High Plains. It looks like it could be a doozy of a system for the Upper Midwest. Fortunately for us, it will just be the spotty isolated shower or storm after I-76 splits off from I-80 until we reach Egbert, Wyoming. Egbert!
The cold front associated with that area of low pressure will actually be hanging back in western Wyoming and northern Utah. It will turn into showers and thunderstorms west of Rock Springs. The thunderstorm threat will pick up around Evanston, where some heavy downpours are possible. The rain threat will essentially be at it’s end when we reach Ogden, Utah, and our northwesterly turn towards Idaho will be dry. The day will end in Snowville, Utah, just short of Idaho.
Finally, the Pacific Northwest, where it’s always dry and there is always sun. Wait, huh? Lately, every time we forecast out there it dry and pleasant. No different when we leave Snowville and head through Idaho and eastern Oregon. No problems whatsoever. The day will end in Blalock Canyon, Oregon, which is right by the Columbia River. Just a little bit more to go on a leisurely Sunday drive.
Winds are going to pick up when we get to Portland and head south towards Corvallis. No rain, or issues that way, but keep both hands on the wheel on the way into the home of the Oregon State Beavers.
We were just in western Oregon last week for our forecast in Eugene. How has the weather changed in that time?
At 835PM, PT, Corvallis was reporting a temperature of 66 degrees with clear skies.The quiet weather over the area continued into mid-week, though the upper level flow had broken down over the weekend. A weak, undercutting trough in the northern Rockies was evidence of this, but there were no systems of note on the immediate horizon.
In about 36 hours, a sharp trough, though one with wak flow through it will move towards the West Coast. It isn’t expected to funnel much moisture north towards the Pacific Northwest, as the trough in the Rockies will intercept any moisture. Still, a reduction in barometric pressure over the Western Cascades may lead to an increase in clouds for Corvallis.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 76, Low 47
Thursday – Mostly cloudy, High 69, Low 43
TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 74, Low 47
Thursday – Sunny High 68, Low 43
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny and pleasantly warm High 75, Low 45
Thursday – Partly sunny and pleasant High 67, Low 41
NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny High 74, Low 46
Thursday – Partly sunny High 68, Low 42
WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy. High 72, Low 46
Thursday – Mostly cloudy in the morning…then partly cloudy. High 67, Low 44
The eggnog, I suppose, is one excuse to why forecasts were so bad in Corvallis. The temperatures were both warmer and colder than expected as a high and low on Christmas Day, which would otherwise indicate clearer weather than expected. But they saw .12 inches of rain. Yesterday, the temperatures behaved as expected with overcast conditions, but the mean temperatures were much lower than advertised. For example, the high on Monday was one degree warmer than our forecast low… and we weren’t even the worst overall forecaster. Oh, and when it was completely clouded over, it didn’t rain at all. So the Weather Service had the top forecast, but that doesn’t mean they put out a good forecast.
Actuals: Sunday – .12 inches of rain, High 51, Low 28
Monday – High 39, Low 28
It’s not going to be a long trip tomorrow, just two hours through the Pacific Northwest. Of course, the rain will make it seem longer. We’re traveling 255 miles in a span of 4 1/2 hours. That’s a rather languid pace of 56.4mph. Oh well, the roads will be slick.
All right, so I oversold the rain a bit. The drive through Oregon will be dry, but there will be clouds and fog driving through the Columbia Gorge. The chance for some rain will crop up when we arrive in the Olympia area. It will just be drizzle as the real rain will be off the coast. It will be too bad that we will be socked in driving around Puget Sound, because it really is beautiful.
We are destined for a 4 day road trip, somehow beginning on Christmas and culminating in the middle of next week. It’s a 2138 mile journey that we will be able to cover at a pace of 67.7mph. Those long drives through Nebraska are fantastic. We will get 541 miles a day behind us, demonstrating how nice it is to drive through the Plains. Holiday travels ahoy!
So, let’s say you have to drive on Christmas. What would you like our of that drive? I would say good weather and little traffic. You’re in luck! Outside of Des Moines, the Quad Cities, Iowa City and Omaha, there isn’t much traffic! Ok, so there is a little bit of traffic. The weather won’t be a problem, however, and temperatures will get warmer as we go. The day, Christmas day, will end in Bradshaw, Nebraska, which is just past York.
Boxing Day will be a lot like Christmas Day as we drive west. Not a lot in terms of weather, and certainly a lot less in terms of people. The largest city we see will be Cheyenne, and the day will end up in Hadsell, Wyoming, which is near Rawlins. So far so good on this drive, right?
Early in the day on Tuesday, our fortunes will change. There is a chance for some snow as we cross the Bear River Divide in far western Wyoming. It will be about 45 minutes of snow as we try to make it to Utah. When we arrive in the Beehive State, we can then expect clearing (well, in terms of precipitation) through northern Utah and southern Idaho. The day ends in Mountain Home, Idaho, under some bleak looking skies.
Now, things are going to fall apart for us. Expect rain to pour down through western Idaho and eastern Oergon. We will drive our way into the rain shadow of the Cascades, which will mean dry weather and high clouds from Pendleton to the Dalles. Then the elevation, as well as the threat for more showers will go up. It’s probably going to be rainy in Corvallis when we get into town.
A Christmas Eve in Corvallis. Sounds poetic. And rainy.
At 1015AM, PT, Corvallis was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with clear skies. An area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska was threatening to change the pleasant weather, with showers already beginning to threaten the Olympic Peninsula of Washington.
The associated trough is quite sharp, which means the system will pivot through quickly. The weakening cold front will slam into the Oregon coast on Christmas night and will be through by Monday morning. That said, the next round of wet weather will arrive postfrontally Monday evening. Most of Christmas Day looks to be pleasant, however. Happy Holidays!
Tomorrow – Late rain, High 46, Low 32
Monday – Cloudy early, with rain late, High 47, Low 38
TWC: Tomorrow – Light rain early… then remaining cloudy with showers in the afternoon High 44, Low 36
Monday – A few morning showers High 44, Low 36
AW: Tomorrow – Rain High 46, Low 32
Monday – Mostly cloudy (late rain) High 48, Low 34
NWS: Tomorrow – Rain likely. Cloudy High 46, Low 32
Monday – A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy High 45 Low 35
WB: Tomorrow – Rain likely. High 45, Low 33
Monday – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. High 44, Low 35