Hope the gas bill is paid
Posted by Ryan
Forecasts of lows in the mid-20s were chilly enough, but on Saturday in Bismarck, clear overnight skies led to radiative cooling that was more effective than anticipated. The low on Saturday morning was 17 degrees, something almost nobody saw coming.A trace of some sort of precipitation came late Sunday, I assume it was snow because it has been snowing in Bismarck all day today. Victoria-Weather had the top forecast, thought it wasn't terribly well executed, especially since the we were off by 11 degrees in total on the Day 1 of the forecast. Oh well, we'll take it and do better next time.
Actuals: Saturday - High 34, Low 17
Sunday - Trace of precip, High 45, Low 24
Grade C
Bismarck, North Dakota
Posted by Ryan
I have a sneaking suspicion that this may be our first truly wintry forecast of the season. How does THAT make you feel?
At 1052AM, CT, Bismarck was reporting sunny skies and a temperature of 39 degrees. They found themselves in the wake of a cold front that is getting new life from a developing low over Oklahoma. Along the cold front, which is gradually turning into a warm front, or even an inverted trough, a large shield of clouds looked to back its way into North Dakota.
The deep but fairly weak upper trough will instigate a northward motion from the low developing in Oklahoma. The system isn't strong enough to advect it's cold air, so it will have to use the temperatures in place already, which will likely mean a mix of rain and snow over Minnesota. Were this February, this would likely mean a dusting for Bismarck as well, but it will likely just mean an increase in clouds until late on Sunday, when a strong system over western Canada may begin to introduce some flurries to southern North Dakota.
Tomorrow - Increasing clouds, High 37, Low 25
Sunday -Mostly cloudy, with a flurry before midnight, High 41, Low 22
TWC: Tomorrow - Partly cloudy skies. High 43, Low 25
Sunday - Mix of sun and clouds. High 45, Low 23
AW: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 42, Low 20
Sunday - Partly sunny (late flurries) High 44, Low 18
NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny high 41, Low 23
Sunday - Partly sunny High 39, Low 23
WB: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny, High 41, Low 21
Sunday - Partly sunny, High 40, Low 22
Temperatures are all over the place, and it will probably be dependent on what happens with the clouds. They are pretty evident on the satellite.
The definition of isolated
Posted by Ryan
For Monday, everyone had the threat for thunderstorms in their forecast for Bismarck. I had even mentioned that they would be isolated in my forecast. On Monday evening, one cell popped up northwest of Bismarck, taking with it a tornado warning and rolled right through North Dakota's capital. There were 40mph winds at the airport, and the city received a quick quarter inch of rain. The forecasts were tightly clustered, but The Weather Channel nosed the rest of us.
Actuals: Monday - .25 inches of rain in a heavy thunderstorm, High 86, Low 65
Tuesday - High 83, Low 62
Grade B
Fort Wayne, Indiana to Bismarck, North Dakota
Posted by Ryan
I have lived in Lafayette, Indiana and Minot, North Dakota, but I have no record of either end point on our trip. That said, this two day, 994 mile trip will cover a lot of familiar ground for me. We'll travel at a rate of 61.9mph and we'll split the mileage nearly in half, going 495 miles on the first day.
DAY 1
This is road trippin' weather if you ask me. I'm used to the long drives with temperatures in the 90s, humid with either the windows down or the AC blasting. It's going to be hot through Chicago and parts of southern Wisconsin. Temperatures will begin to cool down with increasing clouds in the center of that state. By the time we reach Eau Claire, we may see some light showers or one of the isolated thunderstorms that will go up in northern Wisconsin, but we won't have much further to go. Menomonie will be the stop Monday night.
DAY TWO
The Tuesday trip may be a little long if we get a thunderstorm overnight in Menomonie, but we shouldn't have issues because of the weather. The drive through Minnesota will be down right enjoyable. It always seems unfair that you have to drive for about three more hours when you hit the North Dakota line to get to Bismarck, but such is life. It will be hot and dry in North Dakota's capital when we arrive.
Bismarck, North Dakota
Posted by Ryan
It seems we spend a lot of time in Bismarck. I don't know if this is accurate or not.
At 1052PM, CT, Bismarck was reporting a temperature of 69 degrees with clear skies. A weak low over northern South Dakota and a cold front inching in from Canada have made things dicey for the Dakotas today, particularly north and east of Bismarck.
The jet will run through the northern tier of states relatively unchanged for the forecast period. It's not very strong, but a weak stationary front will line up along the international border, not able to dip south into Bismarck. A few weak surface troughs, borne partly of the heat in the center of the country will ripple through the Plains, generally south of town. The window between the two areas of disturbed weather will not be great, but if guidance is correct, the city will be dry through the period. Lately, guidance has been pretty unreliable, so thunderstorms will be left in the forecast.
Tomorrow - An isolated shower or storm, High 88, Low 64
Tuesday - Partly to mostly cloudy, High 90, Low 58
Tomorrow - Variable clouds with scattered thunderstorms. High 88, Low 63
Tuesday - Plenty of sun High 88, Low 61
AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny and nice (Thunderstorm thru 1AM) High 88, Low 63
Thursday - Sunny to partly cloudy and seasonably warm High 87, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 88, Low 64
Thursday -Partly cloudy, High 90, Low 59
WB: Tomorrow - Partly sunny, A 20 percent chance of storms in the morning, High 88, Low 64
Thursday - Mostly Sunny, High 90, Low 59
Looks like I get along best with the Weather Service. Here's hoping we kick the Weather Channel's butt! You can see some remnants of super cells on the satellite image east of Bismarck.
