Tag Archives: Ann Arbor

Perfect August weather

We took a look at the coming weather for Ann Arbor late last week, and it really worked out great for residents of southern Michigan (so too for meteorologists if I’m being honest.) Temperatures were manageable, especially on Friday after a weak cold front sneaked through Thursday night. There was a little bit of precipitation with the passage of the cold front, and temperatures went from the mid to low 80s for highs, while lows dipped to the low 60s. The best news was that meteorologists essentially nailed the forecast. The National Weather Service, who won the day, missed only by 1 degree of error.
Actuals: Thursday .10 inches of rain, High 85, Low 60
Friday – High 82, Low 64

Grade: A=C

Ann Arbor, Michigan to Tulsa, Oklahoma

Michigan to Oklahoma doesn’t seem quite as long a journey as some of our treks have been, but this will still cost us a day and a half to navigate the heart of the Mississippi Valley. We have 902 miles to cover, which we will do at a pace of 68mph, despite a slog through Chicago. We will thus cover 545 miles of our journey on Saturday, leaving that last meat on the bone for Sunday.

DAY ONE (Saturday)

An area of low pressure in the Mid-Atlantic is bringing all sorts of showers and embedded thunderstorms from the Upper Ohio Valley east towards southern New England. Of course, this is south of our route, but the circulation associated with this feature will sneak a bit of moisture back over the Great Lakes. A small perturbation over southern Lake Michigan will kick up a few clouds and maybe a stray shower in the Chicago region in the afternoon. We will likely make it through there by the time showers pick up, but surely, there will be some mostly cloudy skies in the Land of Lincoln regardless of whether or not we see sprinkles. Our Saturday drive will take us to Gray Summitt, Missouri, just west of St. Louis.

DAY TWO (Sunday)
An upper level trough over the southern Plains is going to churn up some southerly flow, destabilizing the atmosphere across Oklahoma. Storms will probably be erupting fairly early in the afternoon, anywhere over our last couple of hours of driving, between Springfield and Tulsa. Most of it will be rain, but don’t be surprised by an embedded thunderstorm, either.

Ann Arbor, Michigan

Just a couple of days after our forecast for Akron, we are moving jut to the northeast. Will the forecast be terribly different, or are we headed for a similar day in the home city of the University of Michigan?

At 1051AM, ET, Ann Arbor was reporting a temperature of 89 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Lower cloud decks were being seen across lower Michigan, A weak upper level trough is moving swiftly out of he Great Lakes, and a surface trough over the Eastern Lakes. This surface feature is producing the dreary skies in Michigan, but thanks to the wavelength of the upper trough, it will shift quickly away from the area and Ann Arbor will be in the sun by late evening.

A part of this upper level trough is producing a more organized area of low pressure in eastern Hudson Bay, which is trailing a cold front into Lake Superior. This boundary will mean a return of rain and isolated thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. This boundary will be the last gasp, however, with high pressure inserting itself into the area, providing a nice day on Friday.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, scattered storms in the afternoon, High 85, Low 59
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 81, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny skies during the morning hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. High 85, Low 60
Friday – A few clouds early, otherwise mostly sunny. High 83, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Times of sun and clouds, a shower or thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon High 85, Low 59
Friday – Intervals of clouds and sun; humid High 82, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, High 85, Low 61
Friday – Partly sunny High 82, Low 64

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 84, Low 61
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 78, Low 64

WN: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with scattered storms, High 85, Low 61
Friday – Partly cloudy with isolated storms, High 83, Low 64

FIO Partly cloudy starting in the afternoon, continuing until evening.High 82, Low 59
Friday Partly cloudy starting in the morning.High 79, Low 61:

Check out the satellite below. Sure, there are a few clouds to concern ourselves with today in Ann Arbor, but the real story during the forecast period will be that splotch over Lake Superior.

Austin, Texas to Ann Arbor, Michigan

Let’s take a nice little road trip this Labor Day weekend, as we head north from Texas off to Lower Michigan. Thanks to a rapid drive up I-35, and continued travel along the interstate system, we will be able to cover 70 miles an hour, 563 miles a day, and will cover this 1368 mile drive in only 2 1/2 days. Let’s see if the weather cooperates with our ambitious pace.

DAY ONE (Monday)

Thankfully, as we start our trek out of Austin and through Texas will be dry and warm. This is a part of the country that has been through far too much, so clear skies and hopefully clear roads will be greatly appreciated. We will arrive in Arkansas with a warm, moist flow rising out of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a weak cold front moving out of the Midwest. The day will end after we pass Little Rock, continuing another hour to Fredonia, on the way to Memphis.

DAY TWO (Tuesday)
Immediately as we get going from Fredonia, we will encounter some rain, with isolated embedded thunderstorms as we make our way through northeastern Arkansas. The boundary will be well defined with a good deal of cold air driving south from the Midwest, so, while we will have some heavy rain and thunderstorm early on in the day, the majority of our drive will be nice and clear. With the cooler air, having rolled down windows will be nice. There might be a bit of a headwind that could impact gas mileage, depending on the profile of your vehicle. We can make it to Monee, on the south side of the Chicago metro before we have to call it a day.

DAY THREE (Wednesday)
The low pressure center associated with the cold front we encounter Tuesday morning will be rotating through the Great Lakes. This cool low will tap into the moisture of the Lakes, and there will be pop up showers throughout Lower Michigan all day on Wednesday. Mostly cloudy skies and an autumnal chill await in Ann Arbor, along with those light showers.

Weather Wayback…. the slow start to summer

The past few weeks have been unusually cool for all areas east of the Rockies, giving the end of summer an easy transition to autumn. Back in April, spring was late arriving in the Great Lakes as well. Ann Arbor, Michigan saw a system move through the region on the final weekend of April, bringing not only a half an inch of rain with steady showers and isolated thunderstorms, but also high temperatures in the mid 50s both Saturday and Sunday. That’s not a great weekend, but at least April wasn’t technically summer yet, but it was one of those first weekends in which expectations were high, and plans were ruined. Weathernation was the top forecaster in a collection of very similar forecasts.
Actuals: Saturday, April 29th -Rain reported, not measured, High 55, Low 46
Sudnay, April 30th – .58 inches of rain, High 55, Low 39

Grade: C

Ann Arbor, Michigan

Today we head off to the home of the Wolverines, Ann Arbor! Although the football coach seems to be gallivanting around Europe, let’s see what the students will see for the weekend!

At 853pm EDT, the temperature at Ann Arbor, MI was 56 degrees under overcast skies. An elongated stationary boundary is found camping out from southern New England back through the Ohio Valley and continues to an intensifying area of low pressure over the Southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to train along this boundary throughout the early morning hours, keeping the Ann Arbor area mainly dry and we head into midday. One area of low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary in MO and kick up some a round of heavier rain and thunderstorms as it pushes into the Great Lakes during the late evening. As the overall system intensifies and starts to occlude, the center of the system will push further towards the Great Lakes, with the boundary lifting northward ahead of it. This brings southern Michigan pretty much right in the path of heavier rain and thunderstorms throughout the evening hours on Sunday. Overall, unfortunately, it looks to be like a pretty dreary weekend. On the bright side, temperatures will lift noticeably for Sunday!

Saturday: Evening rain showers and thunderstorms. High 54, Low 45.
Sunday: Morning rain, heavy at times. Possible evening thunderstorms. High 64, Low 43.

TWC: Saturday: Showers. High 52, Low 42.
Sunday: Thunderstorms. High 62, Low 40.

AW: Saturday: A shower; cooler. High 50, Low 43.
Sunday: Rain and a t-storm; warmer. High 63, Low 41.

NWS: Saturday: Showers likely. High 53, Low 44.
Sunday: Showers likely. High 62, Low 43.

WB: Saturday: 50% chance of rain showers. High 52, Low 43.
Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 62, Low 42.

WN: Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 54, Low 43.
Sunday: Cloudy with thunderstorms likely. High 61, Low 43.

FIO: Saturday: Light rain overnight and in the afternoon. High 59, Low 47.
Sunday: Rain starting overnight. High 77, Low 45.

Here we see some light rain showers passing off to the south of the area. A very heavy swath of rain is found from St. Louis clear through Columbus, which looks to start shifting northward over the weekend.

Duped by drizzle

Here’s something that doesn’t happen very often: We had to break out the old “precipitation type error” penalty. Five forecasters indicated that they suspected there would be snow in Ann Arbor on Christmas. Two thought it would mix with rain. There wasn’t any snow at all, as it turned out. There were some solid temperature forecasts, but it was the two outlets that weren’t punished for not having rain in the forecast, Accuweather (who came in second) and WeatherNation (the top ‘caster) who won the day.
Actuals: Thursday – Rain reported, not measured High 39, low 32
Friday – High 45, Low 30

Grade: A

Rochester, Minnesota to Ann Arbor, Michigan

Let’s quickly take a one day trek from southeastern Minnesota to southeastern Michigan. The drive is a a 587.8 mile journey, which we will cover in 9 1/2 hours on Christmas Day. I suspect there will be traffic everywhere, but nothing pparticularly dense anywhere. If you don’t want to do the math, the mph measure will be 62.6. Let’s get a move on. It’s a big day!

By the early afternoon, there will be a tendril of wet snow moving into central Minnesota on Christmas, but if we play our cards right, we’ll be in southern Minnesota by the time that happens. Skies will be partly cloudy as we make the trek through Chicago and northern Indiana, with some increasing clouds in lower Michigan, where precipitation will have been much more recent. They are expecting heavy rain in eastern Michigan, so don’t be surprised if there is some fog as we arrive in Ann Arbor. Merry Christmas, everyone!
Ann Arbor

Ann Arbor, Michigan

It’s Christmas Eve, in case you weren’t aware. I hope you are keeping an eye on the weather today too, even though it’s a holiday. You may be travelling, which would make it even more important to be appraised of the current conditions.

At 1253PM, ET, Ann Arbor was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with rain. Low pressure centered over Ohio was producing a broad swath of rain over the Lower Peninsula at the back end of the low. The associated cold front is inundating the east coast, but swath at the back side of the system was no slouch either, particularly with heavy rain being noted just west of Ann Arbor.
As the low shifts northeast into Canada, it will begin to pull cold air into the back side of the system, creating a greater clash of air masses over the LP. This will produce very heavy rain tonight, which will transition to wet snow that will continue into the morning tomorrow. The snow can be expected to accumulate to about an inch or so on grassy surfaces, but will be too wet to really produce much accumulation on pavement. A weak surface ridge will build in on Friday, so anyone returning gifts will be able to do so with dry skies.
Tomorrow – Snow through the early afternoon, High 39, Low 32
Friday – Mostly cloudy skies with a return to unseasonable warmth, High 44, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Clouds/PM Sun (early snow), High 38, Low 34
Friday – Partly Cloudy, High 47, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Windy and colder; cloudy in the morning, then clouds and sunshine in the afternoon (rain/snow early) High 39, Low 34
Friday – Partly sunny High 45, Low 32

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy, (snow, thunder possible early) High 38, Low 33
Friday – Partly sunny High 44, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. High 49, Low 33
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Chance of Light Wintry Mix High 37, Low 32
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 45, Low 30

Here is the rain smothering the Great Lakes right now. Um… I guess there is a lot of green for Christmas?
Ann Arbor

Ann Arbor, Michigan to Macon, Georgia

Let’s hit the road for a day and a half, shall we? Our day will cover 793 miles on this trip, which we will cover at a pace of 62.3mph. Not the fastest trip we have ever taken, but the weather won’t necessarily be the most agreeable. Day one, the longer of the two days, will be over after 498 miles of driving.

Ann Arbor
An area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will ensure a rainy start as we head out of Ann Arbor. The rain will continue as we head into Ohio, but south of Lima, we will get into a dry bit of highway all the way south to Lexington. For a bit, the cold front will catch up with us south of Lexington. Quite torrential rain will make things difficult through southern Kentucky, but the system will slow down through the day, and we may get out ahead of it again by the time we reach Knoxville, where we will stop for the night and await the rain.

The rain is going to plow through Knoxville overnight, and we should be able to make it through Tennessee relatively unscathed. It isn’t entirely clear how far south the front will make it by the time we reach Georgia, but it’s possible that we immediately encounter rain when we cross into the state. More likely, we will hit the rain somewhere around Atlanta. What is assured is that we will see rain when we reach Macon.