Tag Archives: Ann Arbor

Ann Arbor, Michigan

Today we head off to the home of the Wolverines, Ann Arbor! Although the football coach seems to be gallivanting around Europe, let’s see what the students will see for the weekend!

At 853pm EDT, the temperature at Ann Arbor, MI was 56 degrees under overcast skies. An elongated stationary boundary is found camping out from southern New England back through the Ohio Valley and continues to an intensifying area of low pressure over the Southern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to train along this boundary throughout the early morning hours, keeping the Ann Arbor area mainly dry and we head into midday. One area of low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary in MO and kick up some a round of heavier rain and thunderstorms as it pushes into the Great Lakes during the late evening. As the overall system intensifies and starts to occlude, the center of the system will push further towards the Great Lakes, with the boundary lifting northward ahead of it. This brings southern Michigan pretty much right in the path of heavier rain and thunderstorms throughout the evening hours on Sunday. Overall, unfortunately, it looks to be like a pretty dreary weekend. On the bright side, temperatures will lift noticeably for Sunday!

Saturday: Evening rain showers and thunderstorms. High 54, Low 45.
Sunday: Morning rain, heavy at times. Possible evening thunderstorms. High 64, Low 43.

TWC: Saturday: Showers. High 52, Low 42.
Sunday: Thunderstorms. High 62, Low 40.

AW: Saturday: A shower; cooler. High 50, Low 43.
Sunday: Rain and a t-storm; warmer. High 63, Low 41.

NWS: Saturday: Showers likely. High 53, Low 44.
Sunday: Showers likely. High 62, Low 43.

WB: Saturday: 50% chance of rain showers. High 52, Low 43.
Sunday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 62, Low 42.

WN: Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. High 54, Low 43.
Sunday: Cloudy with thunderstorms likely. High 61, Low 43.

FIO: Saturday: Light rain overnight and in the afternoon. High 59, Low 47.
Sunday: Rain starting overnight. High 77, Low 45.

Here we see some light rain showers passing off to the south of the area. A very heavy swath of rain is found from St. Louis clear through Columbus, which looks to start shifting northward over the weekend.

Duped by drizzle

Here’s something that doesn’t happen very often: We had to break out the old “precipitation type error” penalty. Five forecasters indicated that they suspected there would be snow in Ann Arbor on Christmas. Two thought it would mix with rain. There wasn’t any snow at all, as it turned out. There were some solid temperature forecasts, but it was the two outlets that weren’t punished for not having rain in the forecast, Accuweather (who came in second) and WeatherNation (the top ‘caster) who won the day.
Actuals: Thursday – Rain reported, not measured High 39, low 32
Friday – High 45, Low 30

Grade: A

Rochester, Minnesota to Ann Arbor, Michigan

Let’s quickly take a one day trek from southeastern Minnesota to southeastern Michigan. The drive is a a 587.8 mile journey, which we will cover in 9 1/2 hours on Christmas Day. I suspect there will be traffic everywhere, but nothing pparticularly dense anywhere. If you don’t want to do the math, the mph measure will be 62.6. Let’s get a move on. It’s a big day!

Rochestermn
By the early afternoon, there will be a tendril of wet snow moving into central Minnesota on Christmas, but if we play our cards right, we’ll be in southern Minnesota by the time that happens. Skies will be partly cloudy as we make the trek through Chicago and northern Indiana, with some increasing clouds in lower Michigan, where precipitation will have been much more recent. They are expecting heavy rain in eastern Michigan, so don’t be surprised if there is some fog as we arrive in Ann Arbor. Merry Christmas, everyone!
Ann Arbor

Ann Arbor, Michigan

It’s Christmas Eve, in case you weren’t aware. I hope you are keeping an eye on the weather today too, even though it’s a holiday. You may be travelling, which would make it even more important to be appraised of the current conditions.

At 1253PM, ET, Ann Arbor was reporting a temperature of 47 degrees with rain. Low pressure centered over Ohio was producing a broad swath of rain over the Lower Peninsula at the back end of the low. The associated cold front is inundating the east coast, but swath at the back side of the system was no slouch either, particularly with heavy rain being noted just west of Ann Arbor.
As the low shifts northeast into Canada, it will begin to pull cold air into the back side of the system, creating a greater clash of air masses over the LP. This will produce very heavy rain tonight, which will transition to wet snow that will continue into the morning tomorrow. The snow can be expected to accumulate to about an inch or so on grassy surfaces, but will be too wet to really produce much accumulation on pavement. A weak surface ridge will build in on Friday, so anyone returning gifts will be able to do so with dry skies.
Tomorrow – Snow through the early afternoon, High 39, Low 32
Friday – Mostly cloudy skies with a return to unseasonable warmth, High 44, Low 28

TWC: Tomorrow – AM Clouds/PM Sun (early snow), High 38, Low 34
Friday – Partly Cloudy, High 47, Low 31

AW: Tomorrow – Windy and colder; cloudy in the morning, then clouds and sunshine in the afternoon (rain/snow early) High 39, Low 34
Friday – Partly sunny High 45, Low 32

NWS: Tomorrow – Cloudy, (snow, thunder possible early) High 38, Low 33
Friday – Partly sunny High 44, Low 30

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. High 49, Low 33
Friday – Partly cloudy, High 46, Low 30

WN: Tomorrow – Mostly Cloudy with Chance of Light Wintry Mix High 37, Low 32
Friday – Partly Cloudy High 45, Low 30

Here is the rain smothering the Great Lakes right now. Um… I guess there is a lot of green for Christmas?
Ann Arbor

Ann Arbor, Michigan to Macon, Georgia

Let’s hit the road for a day and a half, shall we? Our day will cover 793 miles on this trip, which we will cover at a pace of 62.3mph. Not the fastest trip we have ever taken, but the weather won’t necessarily be the most agreeable. Day one, the longer of the two days, will be over after 498 miles of driving.

DAY ONE
Ann Arbor
An area of low pressure moving into the Great Lakes will ensure a rainy start as we head out of Ann Arbor. The rain will continue as we head into Ohio, but south of Lima, we will get into a dry bit of highway all the way south to Lexington. For a bit, the cold front will catch up with us south of Lexington. Quite torrential rain will make things difficult through southern Kentucky, but the system will slow down through the day, and we may get out ahead of it again by the time we reach Knoxville, where we will stop for the night and await the rain.

DAY TWO
The rain is going to plow through Knoxville overnight, and we should be able to make it through Tennessee relatively unscathed. It isn’t entirely clear how far south the front will make it by the time we reach Georgia, but it’s possible that we immediately encounter rain when we cross into the state. More likely, we will hit the rain somewhere around Atlanta. What is assured is that we will see rain when we reach Macon.
Macon

Ann Arbor, Michigan to Victoria, Texas

It’s time for my first road trip in… quite a while. We are heading south over the course of three days and covering 1427 miles. That will put us at a pace of only 62.4mph, which translates to 499 miles a day. This is exactly what will drag the trip out into three full days. It’s the rare three day north-south trip, so we had better enjoy it.

DAY ONE

I don’t know that we could have picked a better time to take this trip. After what has been an abysmal week for most of the eastern half of the country, high pressure is finally building in from the west. Our day will likely be cloudy, and there may be a stray snow flake depending upon the intensity of flow off Lake Michigan, but even that is tremendously unlikely. Our day ends, with the moon peeking from behind the clouds, in Ina, Illinois.

DAY TWO
Overnight flurries are a possibility across central Illinois overnight Thursday, and there might be a flake for us in Ina before we leave town. There isn’t much reason for the snow, except Mother Nature is hateful and cruel this time of year. The rest of our drive to Mandeville, Arkansas, which is near Texarkana, should be fine. Well, the whole trip, because the snow will be done by the time we leave. Whatevs.

DAY THREE
It’s strange, because the return flow will pick up and import moisture off the Gulf… but only into Mexico. Victoria looks like it will be in good shape through the day Saturday, except maybe some clouds, especially during the morning. But we will arrive at night, and the whole road in should be pretty clear, if you don’t talk about traffic near Houston.

Dramatic temperature spike

The models correctly indicated a sharp, well amplified ridge moving into Ann Arbor over the beginning of the weekend. The problem was with the forecasters who didn’t interpret it correctly. The warm advection indicated by the ridge was certainly a lot more efficient than anyone had anticipated, and as a result, the temperatures jumped from a high of 72 on Friday to a high of 91 on Saturday. It didn’t hurt that temperatures the clouds associated with showers or storms were not existent. The Weather Service had the top forecast in Ann Arbor, but everyone was very close (and very wrong).
Actuals: Friday, High 72, Low 50
Saturday, High 91, Low 55

Grade: C

Ann Arbor, Michigan

Before I begin, I would be remiss if I didn’t at least mention the tornadoes yesterday in Massachusetts. The most visually arresting version is the one that hit Springfield. There is a lot of video from that one that I will post on Saturday. Unfortunately, 4 people were killed in the New England outbreak. Like I said, more on this on Saturday.

At 1254PM, ET, Ann Arbor was reporting clear skies with a temperature of 66 degrees. Ann Arbor found itself under a welcome ridge of high pressure. The combination of this ridge and the development of a system over the High Plains meant some amplified ridge riders were showing up over central Illinois.
The ridge, and the entire upper level pattern is shortwaved and progressive. The good news is that the ridge is well amplified, and will help force the system presently in the Plains north towards Hudson Bay, and the eastward advance of the system will be slow. When showers and storms do arrive on Saturday morning, the shower and thunderstorm activity will be minimal, as cold advection will be weak.
Tomorrow – Sunny, with increasing clouds late, High 76, Low 46
Saturday – Chances for showers and an isolated thunderstorm, High 84, Low 57

TWC: Tomorrow – Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 74, Low 52
Saturday – Scattered thunderstorms possible High 85, Low 62

AW: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms possible High 75, Low 45
Saturday – Partly sunny and warmer with a shower or thunderstorm; breezy in the morning High 86, Low 58

NWS: Tomorrow – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 49
Saturday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 88, Low 61

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy during the morning. Partly sunny during the afternoon. A chance of showers and thunderstorms High 75, Low 50
Saturday – Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms High 87, Low 62

I am both intrigued by how warm people have it on Saturday as well as the forecast showers in tomorrow’s forecast from Weatherbug and the Weather Service. Here is the satellite, showing showers and crap to the southwest.

Ann Arbor gets lucky

I know some people like the snow, and some people don’t. I know that most people can agree that when temperatures get really cold, it’s pretty unbearable. Clouds wrapping around an area of low pressure in northern Michigan acted as a blanket overnight that kept Ann Arbor from getting terribly cold. The pleasantly, uh, not freezing temepratures ended up giving The Weather Channel the top spot. Weatherbug almost got it, but forecast two days of snow, when they didn’t see any. (I feel proud of myself for getting through this post without any potshots at the Michigan Wolverines.)
Actuals: Friday – High 30, Low 24
Saturday – High 36, Low 30

Grade: C

Battle Creek, Michigan to Ann Arbor, Michigan

Our all Michigan evening continues here on Thanksgiving, as we take an hour and a half jaunt from Battle Creek to Ann Arbor. Not a terribly difficult drive. It’s 80 miles between towns, and we will average about 60mph. Easy math.


The drive between Battle Creek and Ann Arbor tomorrow really couldn’t come at a better time. Winds will be blustery from the northwest, and we should keep both hands on the wheel, but any snow coming at the back end of a cold front pushing through Detroit will be taken off the roadways by the time we make it through town.