Tag Archives: Anderson

Rain was right, but still a surprise

Nearly everyone was right on the forecast for Anderson. Well, everyone was right when it came to the nuts and bolts of a “yes or no” rain forecast.The consensus seemed to be that the rain would come prefrontally in spits and starts, but the front was moving faster than expected. There was more rain because the boundary arrived ahead of schedule. Another issue was the trapped moisture by the Piedmont. IT was an issue up and down the coast. Even though it didn’t kick out any showers on Saturday, and the rain was less than expected (before the front got there) on Sunday, temperatures were off by at least 5 degrees every day. It wasn’t a great forecast, but Victoria-Weather will gladly claim the title of top spot.
Actuals: Saturday – High 36, Low 21
Sunday .23 inches of rain, High 41, Low 33

Grade: C

Anderson, South Carolina

We are now comfortably in 2014. How comfortable is it in, say, upstate South Carolina, for example?

At 1156AM, ET, Anderson was reporting a temperature of 30 degrees with clear skies. The Carolinas were in a northerly flow regime behind the cold front associated with the low moving through New England, and while temperatures were cooler than usual, South Carolina was also seeing calm conditions.
High pressure is expected to hang on through the day tomorrow, but another deep trough moving into the Midwest will help produce a cold front that will advance to run from the Great Lakes to the Smokey Mountains by midnight on Monday morning. This broader trough will be paired with a developing jet off the Carolina coast. This will produce a weak area of low pressure north of the Bahamas. The southerly flow produced by the deeper land based trough is going to tap into the instability offshore, and there will be showers and maybe even an isolated thunderstorms over the Anderson area on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Sunny, High 43, Low 21
Sunday – Rain possible, with a chance for some thunder, mostly in the morning. Increasing wind late High 48, Low 32

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 46, Low 22
Sunday – AM Showers High 50, Low 34

AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 45, Low 20
Sunday – Variable cloudiness with a shower High 46, Low 32

NWS: Tomorrow – Increasing clouds, High 45, Low 20
Sunday – A chance of rain before noon, then a chance of showers after noon. Cloudy High 50, Low 33

WB: Tomorrow – Sunny High 45, Low 19
Sunday – Cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning…then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. High 51, Low 33

The real show will come after this forecast period expires. A nice little round of showers and thunderstorms as yet another winter system heads towards the east coast. For now, let’s enjoy an essentially empty visible satellite.
Anderson

Nonsensical rain

I, like everyone else forecasting for Anderson on Friday, anticipated clouds and rain to slow down temperatures on Saturday, with the clearing expected on Sunday also aiding in rising temperatures. well, it rained on Saturday, quite a bit in fact. .86 inches were reported at nearby Muncie. It was all over by the time Sunday rolled around, a little sooner than expected. Temperatures, however, responded in almost the exact opposite manner than we guessed. The high temperature dropped from near 90 on Saturday to only 83 on Sunday. It’s a good thing Anderson doesn’t repor, so this isn’t officially going on the record books. The Weather Service and Accuweather seem like they had the top forecasts.
Actuals*: Saturday – .86 inches of rain, High 89, Low 69
Sunday – High 83, Low 66

Grade: C

*Recorded in Muncie

Anderson, Indiana

We’re off to the home state of my alma mater. Anderson isn’t terribly close to West Lafayette, though, and I’ve never actually been.

At 133PM, ET, it was 85 degrees with sunny skies in Anderson. High pressure remains the dominant feature for much of the eastern half of the country, however shortwaves continued to ride the northern and northwestern flank of the the ridge, tapping into a good deal of heat and humidity.
There is very little upper level support for the ridge, and disturbances are beginning to show a greater ability to penetrate it, such as will be the case this afternoon, when some showers and storms will be able to crop up over Indiana. One issue will be the absence of a scouring flow to sweep out clouds, so even when it isn’t raining, it will likely remain cloudy. The first shortwave will move in tonight, and stall over the region, bringing about a chance for some showers through the day tomorrow, with another round moving in on Sunday with another fast moving wave. This wave will be more likely to produce thunderstorms.
Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with rain, High 85, Low 70
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms, High 87, Low 70

TWC: Tomorrow – Mostly Sunny High 87, Low 66
Sunday – Scattered T-Storms High 87, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow – Partial sunshine with a shower or thunderstorm around; warm and humid High 88, Low 70
Sunday – Intervals of clouds and sun with a shower or thunderstorm in the area; very warm and humid High 90, Low 68

NWS: Tomorrow – A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms High 89, Low 70
Sunday – A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny High 90, Low 69

WB: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.High 89, Low 70
Sunday – Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 91, Low 69

There is certainly some divergent thought on this forecast. The clouds, should they develop over Anderson, will play a vital role in this forecast verification.
Anderson

Springfield, Ohio to Anderson, South Carolina

It’s another 1 day trip tomorrow, this one taking us from Ohio to South Carolina. It’s 527 miles between the two cities, and we will cover that ground at a pace of 59.1 miles an hour. That’s pretty pokey. Into the car, let’s get out of town!



A weak boundary has established itself just south of the Ohio River, and will generally be producing clouds, but some light rain is not out of the question. The drizzle should wind down somewhere between Cincinnati and Lexington, but the southerly drift of this boundary will mean a chance for clouds until we reach Knoxville. Expect things to clear and begin to warm up after we traverse far western North Carolina and arrive in Anderson.

Sunny Days in LA, and Unknown in Indiana

Los Angeles is a tricky place to forecast some days, with many micro-climates found throughout the LA Basin. In a single day, it can be in the low 70s along the beach and well over 100 in the Inland Empire. The last couple of days, however, turned out pretty much exactly as planned. Comfy temps in the upper 70s panned out and propelled VW to the win.

Friday: High 76, Low 62.
Saturday: High 78, Low 62.
Forecast Grade: A

As for Anderson, Indiana, they don’t report overnight, so we don’t really know what happened there. If we use nearby Muncie as a reference point, AW narrowly won. Muncie did get 0.69″ of rain in a thunderstorm yesterday, so everybody’s forecast for a rainy Saturday came to fruition.

Jackson, Mississippi to Anderson, Indiana

Headed north on one of the better days for the south in terms of showers and thunderstorms. It will take a day and a half of driving through the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to get to lovely Anderson at a pace of about 63mph to cover the 718 miles. That means our first day will end after a 506 mile drive. Let’s get this postponed road trip underway!


DAY ONE

The way the models tell it, tomorrow is going to be unusual in terms of precipitation orientation. First off, one model doesn’t even anticipate rain or thunderstorms until mid afternoon, but the other has rain all day right up to the western banks of the Mississippi, and not an inch further. I anticipate that this moist plume ahead of a developing cold front in the Plains will manifest itself as a few showers, but mostly as clouds and fog right along the river. We will have to deal with these clouds and maybe a bit of drizzle most evidently from Memphis to St. Louis. Other than that, I think we will be in great shape through Mississippi and then east to Marshall, Illinois, which is across the Indiana border from Terre Haute.

DAY TWO
Showers and thunderstorms will arrive in Marshall early in the AM, and will be our companion for the rest of the day. There will be some heavy rain associated with this activity. Some guidance suggests rain that will drop over an inch of rain between Marshall and Indianapolis, suggesting the chance for some pretty heavy storms at times, despite the early hour of our drive. The back edge of the heaviest storms will likely be through Anderson as we get in to town, however, so there is hope on the horizon!

Anderson, Indiana

Off to the land of my Alma Mater, Anderson, Indiana. I’ve never been to Anderson, but I did spend the best 4 years of my life in Indiana. So, I guess that counts.

At 1251PM, ET, Anderson was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees with clear skies. A welcome ridge of high pressure has moved into the Great Lakes and is keeping any shower activity well to the south of Anderson.
A weak upper level wave is pushing into the Canadian Praries and will likely be amplified at the surface due to topographic effects initially, which will allow for development through upper levels. The wave is expected to develop into a well defined trough by the time it reaches Anderson on Saturday. The timing and intensity is a little speculative at this point, given some model discrepancy, however there will be more rain and more thunderstorms as the trough develops and carries the low directly over central Indiana. This may lead to some severe weather if more north riding NAM is correct, and will likely be rain if the GFS is right, and the low tracks just to the south of Anderson. Either way, precipitation is likely to begin early in the day on Saturday, providing for something of a wash out to begin the weekend.
Tomorrow – Sunny and pleasant, High 81, Low 55
Saturday – Rainy, with some strong thunderstorms possible, especially around mid-day. 75, Low 60

TWC: Tomorrow – Sunny skies.High 83, Low 58
Saturday – Thunderstorms High 79, Low 63

AW: Tomorrow – Pleasant with times of clouds and sun (PM Storms) High 80, Low 56
Saturday – Variable clouds with showers and thunderstorms High 79, Low 62

NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny (PM Storms) High 80, Low 55
Saturday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy High 76, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny until midday then becoming partly cloudy (PM Storms) High 80, Low 56
Saturday – Thunderstorms likely.High 78, Low 63

Anderson’s model data is abysmal. Good luck anyone trying to forecast there. Satellite is pretty empty in Indiana.

Clustered forecasts

While Anderson didn’t have an actual verification point, we were able to infer what happened in the city by what happened in Muncie, which is just down the road. The temperatures and the dose of rain they saw starting Friday night and through the day Saturday ended up clustering all the forecasts to verify at about the same value. There was a 4 way tie at the top, with The Weather Channel the only outliers.
Actuals (in Muncie): Friday – .01 inches of rain, High 83, Low 65
Saturday – .27 inches of rain, High 73, Low 59

Grade A

Anderson, Indiana

Today we revisit a lovely Indiana town sitting northeast of Indianapolis. Will the weather be as lovely to kick off the weekend?

At 12:53PM EDT, the temperature in Anderson, IN was 83 degrees with a few clouds passing through. A complex low pressure system moving through the Central US has been taking its sweet time to shift eastward since a blocking pattern set up in the Western Atlantic. However, activity should finally start to move along some as the pattern lets up. Some showers and a couple thunderstorms are possible over the region today as a weak frontal boundary passes eastward through the Ohio Valley and the string of lows shifts towards the Great Lakes and Mid-MS Valley. Colder air spilling down behind the system, however, will make for some cooler temperatures on Saturday as that, combined with persistent cloud cover, will make for a relatively gloomy Saturday. Not saying temperatures in the low 70s is gloomy, but the constant cloud cover and widespread precipitation will drive most people indoors.

Friday: Some scattered showers, an isolated thunderstorm perhaps. High 81, Low 63.
Saturday: Increased chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 73, Low 58.

TWC: Friday: Scattered thunderstorms. High 80, Low 64.
Saturday: Scattered thundershowers. High 69, Low 59.

AW: Friday: Couple of thunderstorms. High 84, Low 62.
Saturday: Showers with a chance of thunderstorms. High 74, Low 59.

NWS: Friday: Showers with an isolated thunderstorm. High 81, Low 65.
Saturday: Showers likely. High 71, Low 60.

WB: Friday: Showers with an isolated thunderstorm. High 81, Low 65.
Saturday: Showers likely. High 71, Low 60.

Clearly, WB liked the NWS fan-page on Facebook. Or perhaps they’re just lazy. Either way, we see some cloud cover shifting into the area, with some lighter rain showers embedded within. Perhaps they’ll dodge it today before heavier stuff moves in for the weekend?