The Weather Blog

The story of Ray Caldwell

Ryan — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 16:30:55 GMT

Two days ago, we passed the 89th anniversary of one of the greatest baseball feats in the history of the game. One fateful night, while pitching for the Cleveland Indians against the Athletics of Philadelphia, a thunderstorm moved over League Park in Cleveland and shot a lightning bolt to the pitchers mound, striking Caldwell, knocking him to the ground.
Now this is where any responsible meteorologist would say something like "don't stand on a pitcher's mound in the middle of a thunderstorm", but I think most people out there, especially the ones reading this particular blog know pretty well how to avoid getting struck by lightning. The thing that makes this story different though, is that Ray Caldwell was some sort of superhero, and things like "getting tens of thousands of volts of electricity sent coursing through his body" don't really hurt him. If fact, they made him stronger. You see, after getting struck by lightning, he got up, dusted himself off, and went on to finish the game. The next month, he pitched a no-hitter. This would never happen today, because the game would have been delayed well ahead of the thunderstorm, and certainly after a player got flippin' struck by lightning, and pitchers never pitch complete games anymore.
Other facts about Ray Caldwell that lead to the impression that he may be a superhero:
- Born in a mysterious town that no longer exists
- Before that, he had pitched a season with a broken kneecap.
- Once went missing for 7 months.
- Arrested for grand larceny (maybe he is a supervillain).
- Cut by the Yankees for being drafted.

Ray Caldwell was a man who definitely was a winner in the bingo hall of life.

Wet but dry.

Ryan — Wed, 27 Aug 2008 15:19:45 GMT

Evansville played both sides of that equation the past couple of days. While much of the country is seeing unseasonably dry air, Fay was pumping moisture into Evansville, which kept low temperatures from falling off at night. Showers or storms would have been reasonable expectations as well, however that just didn't happen. In the end, the fine folks at Accuweather picked up their first victory in some time.

Actuals: Monday: High 84, Low 66
Tuesday: High 89, Low 65

The many facets of NOAA

Ryan — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 13:41:02 GMT

This weeks country spotlight doesn't take us anywhere. That's right, the last week in August has been reserved for the good ol' USA. Instead of looking at the climate of the United States, since it's such a complicated and diverse climate, not to mention the focus of this site in general anyways, we're going to look at some of the many organizations that contribute to forecasting for the weather across the nation.
The bureaucracy is set up like this: Department of Commerce --> National Ocaeanic and Atmospheric Administration --> National Weather Service --> Field offices OR --> National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
The field offices are what the public is the most familiar with, as they are the nearest to interaction with the agency as there is. They provide local warnings and forecasts, many of which appear in print or in other media, particularly in smaller markets. Every office is different and has different facilities, depending on the size of the forecast region and the type of climate encountered in said region. It's the place to go if you need a local forecast.
NCEP is a valuable organization, because it provides tools and guidelines for other meteorologists to use. Of the greatest importance is it's Central Operations (NCO) where the "models" of which you hear Anthony and I speak are run. These can be found distributed on all manner of sites, from the NCEP site itself to Unisys. We simply could not forecast without the models run by the NCO.
There are other Centers in NCEP that are invaluable, simply because they are home to such a collection of experts that are able to provide a daily guideline on where to look out for things like severe weather, flooding, hurricanes or turbulence, among other things. I'm going to guide you through four of these centers, the ones that I use most often in my daily life.
First, one of the more famous Centers, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma is charged with keeping tabs on both thunderstorms and fire threats across the country. These are the forecasters that issue thunderstorm and tornado watches, as well as the convective outlooks that I often cite. Also in the facilities at Norman is the National Severe Storms Laboratories.
While, in addition to the thunderstorms, the SPC monitors areas that are too dry, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) focuses solely on rainfall. The most famous product the HPC issues is the official NOAA surface analysis, issued every three hours. While any meteorologist worth their salt can forecast where heavy rain is likely to fall, the HPC's hydrologists help to provide insight into where flooding may occur, thanks to soil saturation and river levels. It is the only one of the Centers mentioned today that is at NCEP headquarters in Maryland.
The Tropical Prediction Center, more commonly known as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has an unusual responsibility. Obviously, it is the United States' eye on the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and eastern Pacific, however it also serves as the eye for all of the Caribbean and Central America. For example, the NHC has issued hurricane warnings for Hurricane Gustav for Haiti, Jamaica and Cuba currently. No other Center bears this kind of responsibility. The NHC, which monitors all of the weather in the tropics is located on the campus of Florida International University in Miami.
The last Center I'll look at today is the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), headquartered in Kansas City. It provides turbulence forecasts and upper air data, sure, but the most valuable asset of the AWC it's Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) which is basically a clearinghourse for current weather data.
I've said many good things about other countries and their weather outlets here. That being said, there is no question that the government of the United States provides it's citizens with the most comprehensive and thorough coverage of the weather of any in the world.

Odessa, Texas

Ryan — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 09:37:29 GMT

We're actually getting to the point in the year where we may have to actually "forecast" for western and southern Texas, now that the change in seasons is rapidly approaching. We'll see how it goes, though.

At 953AM, CT, Odessa was reporting a temperature of 75 with clear skies. The jet was beginning to reappear in the northern US, and a strong shortwave over the Montana-Saskatchewan border was encouraging flow throughout the west that was leading to leeside troughing as far south as New Mexico. Strong high pressure in the northeast was creating a sizeable pressure gradient north of the area, but the gradient was negligible in west Texas and the area, for now, was stable.
The jet will continue to penetrate into the northern US, helping the development of a system riding the international border, and the second real cold front of the transitional season will move into the northern Plains and stall through Kansas Wednesday and Thursday. This will lead to some southerly flow through Texas, which will access the Gulf moisture and humidity and the chance for an isolated thunderstrom will be on the rise southeast of Odessa, particularly in the afternoons.
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy, High 92, Low 70
Thursday - Becoming mostly cloudy, High 90, Low 71

TWC: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny skies High 92, Low 69
Thursday - Mix of sun and clouds. High 89, Low 69

AW: Tomorrow - Sunny most of the day High 92, Low 70
Thursday - Mostly sunny High 92, Low 70

NWS: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny High 92, Low 68
Thursday - Mostly sunny High 92, Low 69

IC: Tomorrow - Mostly sunny skies. High 92, Low 69
Thursday - Times of sun and clouds High 89, Low 69

Pretty similar forecasts all around. Here is the satellite, showing some remnant monsoonal flow over in New Mexico.

Is Fall already coming?

Ryan — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 08:56:08 GMT

As Anthony mentioned yesterday, and we sort of forecast for before that, a fairly strong cold front rolled through La Crosse on Saturday. Since then, well, check out the temperature animation from Weather Underground. Thats right, there have been some 40s and 50s into the early morning, even some overnight thirties in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Isn't it still August?
Stronger waves need greater changes in temperature, which generally aren't there in the Summer, so we get lingering troughs and stationary fronts. The system in the western Great Lakes, which went largely unnoticed due to Tropical Storm Fay grabbing the headlines and the moisture, was not like systems we typically see in the summer. There was an unseasonably strong jet that swept south which was able to slice swiftly to the east, able to pull down cold air and create a cold front, rather than the persistent boundaries of Summer.
It was trying to be sneaky, but it appears that for northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, Autumn is trying to invade early this year. Fortunately, there is still enough warm air out there to stave it off for a couple more weeks.

Evansville, Indiana

Anthony — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 14:12:00 GMT

Today we take a trip to southern Indiana, to a city so large, it needs two states to contain it (as Henderson, KY is included in the overall metropolitan area)! Evansville was also the unfortunate recipient of a F3 tornado in November 2005. 25 lives perished in that storm, making it the deadliest tornado day in Indiana since the Super Outbreak of 1974. This week, however, kicks off with far more benign weather, much to everyone's enjoyment.

At, 1:45AM CDT, Evansville was reporting a temperature of 73 degrees under partly cloudy skies. For the next couple of days, Evansville will be playing monkey-in-the-middle of sorts. Off to the north, a strong dome of high pressure is sitting over the Great Lakes, slowly sliding to the east. To the south, the remnants of Tropical Storms Fay continue to spin over Mississippi and Alabama, ever so slowly creeping towards the northeast. Neither of these systems look to move very much over the next 48 hours, with high and mid-level clouds pushing northwards from Fay. A thin line of showers and thunderstorms are found along the Kentucky/Tennessee border, which is the northern extend of the remnant feeder bands into Fay. With Fay and high pressure at an essential stalemate, not much variation is expected over the next couple of days, with some scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms popping up, albeit mainly to the south.

Monday - Mostly cloudy, isolated afternoon shower/thunderstorm High 85, Low 68
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy, isolated afternoon shower/thunderstorm once again. High 84, Low 66

TWC: Monday - Partly cloudy, isolated PM thunderstorm. High 84, Low 67
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy, isolated PM thunderstorm. High 81, Low 65

AW: Monday - Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorm. High 86, Low 65
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy. High 85, Low 64

NWS: Monday - Partly sunny, High 84, Low 64
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy, isolated afternoon thunderstorms. High 83, Low 64

IC: Monday - Mostly cloudy, isolated thunderstorms. High 86, Low 65
Tuesday - Mostly cloudy, with continues chance of an isolated thunderstorm. High 83, Low 64

What a difference an hour makes...

Anthony — Mon, 25 Aug 2008 08:14:57 GMT

... Or in this case, 3 hours. The passing cold front brought just a slight bit of rain both Friday and Saturday to La Crosse, as any thunderstorms in the area largely missed the area. The morning low Saturday was a semi-balmy 65 degrees, which everybody was within 2-3 degrees. However, the cold front picked up pace throughout the day, allowing the vastly cooler airmass behind it to spill into the Upper Midwest. By 9pm, the temperature was at 64, and plummeted to the mid 50's before the clock hit midnight. See what happens when Mother Nature starts moving systems a lot faster than they should? The NWS comes out on top due to having the coldest low temp for Saturday, even though they were 7 degrees too warm.

Actuals: Friday 0.04" in a shower, High 86, Low 70
Saturday: Trace, High 79, Low 56

Bakersfield to Honolulu

Ryan — Sat, 23 Aug 2008 10:38:32 GMT

Ok, so not really a road trip so much as an air trip. Come fly with me.

Bakersfield, California to Honolulu, Hawai'i.

Bakersfield, California to Honolulu, Hawai'i.

Feature Forecast: Bakersfield, CA; Featured Forecaster: Miles Muzio

Anthony — Sun, 24 Aug 2008 23:08:38 GMT

This week's Feature Forecast takes us to the Golden State, Bakersfield specifically. Perhaps it's called the Golden State from all the sunshine they've been getting this summer across the entire state. Anyways, we're honored to have Miles Muzio, the Chief Meteorologist for KBAK-TV, with us today to enlighten us on the climate of northern CA, and how getting 6 inches of rain over the course of a year isn't necessarily a crippling happenstance.

Another Sunny Weekend in Bakersfield

This fourth weekend in August looks to be sunny and hot. Not too surprising for central California during the second half of summer. While “the Sunshine State” is drowning in 15 to 30 inches of rainfall from Tropical Storm Fay, it is nothing to go many months without a drop of rain in Bakersfield. California is the real sunshine state for much of the year. Average annual precipitation for the southern San Joaquin valley of California is about 6 and a half inches. It has taken 5 and a half years (since February 2003) to collect 30 inches of rain in this relatively dry part of the country, something eastern Florida seems to have accomplished in less than 5 days.

With the exception of one brief cold storm that swirled through California in late May (bringing only .08” to Bakersfield), the last period of wet weather ended February 24^th when .02” fell. That is nearly 6 months. It happens virtually every summer thanks to the Meditterranean climate central California enjoys. This climate is characterized by a mild and wet winter, but a hot and very dry summer. If Pittsburgh, Portland or Peoria went half a year without any rain, it would be lights out. The severe drought recently seen in the southeastern US, although very bad, never featured a location going 6 months without a drop of rain. That would be catastrophic. So how is it that the central valley not only endures this dryness but even flourishes with an agricultural output unmatched in the world? The answer lies high in the Sierra Nevada, just to the east of the valley.

While it is indeed dry in the summer, winters provide quite a bit of precipitation from the Pacific that slams into the high mountain ranges which jut more than 14,000 feet into the sky. When moisture laden storms dip south on a strong polar jet stream from November through April, tons of snow fall in the high Sierra. The snow then melts throughout late spring into early summer. All that melt water finds its way down rivers and streams into the network of irrigation canals for agriculture, and reservoirs for everything else including human consumption. As long as the winters provide generous snowfall up high, water is supplied for people down low. The problem of late, however, has been a lack of major winter storms. Our rainfall is measured in “water years”, which run from July 1^st through June 30^th. The 2007-08 water year just ended only provided 37% of normal rainfall for Bakersfield. That comes on the heals of a dry 2006-07 year which only rendered 42% of normal. So California is in an extreme drought. It appears no significant relief is coming in the near term.

The bad news is heat and dry weather. The good news, especially for those visiting from Florida is dry weather. This weekend should be sunny with highs in the mid to upper 90s for Bakersfield. The Kern County mountains are expected to have highs in the mid 80s. Eastern Kern County deserts will be close to 100 degrees. Weak upper level high pressure is in charge with a slight onshore pressure gradient that guarantees clear skies with moderately hot weather. Our extreme heat is likely over for the year. On July 10^th, only 6 weeks ago, we hit 111 degrees. It was the hottest day of Heat Wave #3, and probably the hottest of 2008. But it’s a “dry” heat- don’t forget.

Like the latter days of winter in Michigan, when gutter snow starts turning black and you get sick of the dreary days, so it is in Bakersfield by late August and September. The heat, dry weather and high electric bills go on and on. But sitting next to a pool with palms trees, grapevines, citrus groves and blue skies nearby- I’d rather be here. It is a fruitful land. This month is unusual, having a fifth weekend, which will be sunny and hot as well. Having 5 weekends in the summer month of August seems to emphasize the hot and dry weather of Bakersfield with additional opportunties to get out and enjoy.

Again, many thanks to Mr. Muzio for helping us out this week! Hopefully some much needed precip makes it's way into the area, but given the weather pattern lately, it looks like California is going to have plenty of sunny days for the immeadiate future.

Mid-Atlantic Domination

Anthony — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 22:33:46 GMT

High pressure dominated much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic for the period, keeping any outlying storms from Tropical Storm Fay well to the south. Despite the absence of fog that Ryan was hoping for, his temperatures were nearly dead-on at Charlottesville, never straying more than 1 degree from the actuals. This propelled him, and VicWx, to a runaway victory! I suppose I'll have to wait until another time to make fun of Ryan's alma mater... well, academically anyways.

Actuals: Wednesday, High 82, Low 62
Thursday, High 83, Low 63

La Crosse, Wisconsin

Ryan — Thu, 21 Aug 2008 18:23:24 GMT

It's time for a trip to beautiful La Crosse, Wisconsin, safely away from any tropical storms.

At 631PM, CT, La Cross was reporting rain with a temperature of 68. La Crosse found itself on the southern end of a band of rain that extended well into north central Wisconsin, and was lifting to the north-northeast. A very strong area of low pressure over the Northwest Territories combined with a stout ridge over New England coupled to create open flow from the Gulf that was helping to generate showers and thunderstorms for much of the Mississippi Valley.
A deep trough in the northwest will move into the Northern Plains and with that will bring dryer southwesterly flow. This will lead to warming temperatures the next two days and less frequent times of rain, but what rain will fall is more apt to be combined with lightning. The cold front associated with this system will move through early in the day Saturday, but with clearer skies behind the line, temperatures will still be warmer than they are now.
Tomorrow - Showers and thunderstorms possible, but mostly sunny, High 82, Low 69
Saturday - Morning thunderstorms, then mostly sunny, High 84, Low 66 (non standard)

TWC: Tomorrow - Windy with a few showers in the morning then partly cloudy in the afternoon High 85, Low 63
Saturday - Mix of sun and clouds (storms through 5am) High 81, Low 68

AW: Tomorrow - Clouds and sunshine with a couple of showers and a thunderstorm; breezy High 88, Low 66
Saturday - A couple of morning showers and a thunderstorm; otherwise, times of clouds and sun High 85, low 67 (non standard)

NWS: Tomorrow - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy High 83, Low 67
Saturday - 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, High 82, Low 63 (non standard)

IC: Tomorrow - Windy with a few showers in the morning then partly cloudy in the afternoon High 85, Low 66
Saturday - Morning showers, possibly a rumble of thunder High 81, Low 68

I'm a little skeptical that tomorrow morning will be all that enjoyable, what with how miserable it is right now. If it is as gloomy as I think it will be, they will have a tough time getting all that warm. Here is the radar.

Tornadoes in Europe

Ryan — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 16:39:19 GMT

A complicated area of low pressure in northern Europe generated storms that resembled those found in the Central Plains of the United States. A large tornado rolled through Silesia, a province in southern Poland, killing three people and injuring dozens more. It certainly is not a place that typically expects to see tornadoes, and a bus on A4, a main throughfare in southern Poland west of Katowice was over turned by the twister. Nobody was killed on this bus, and we have this dramatic video:

Samoa: Not just a delicious Girl Scout Cookie

Ryan — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:16:31 GMT

Samoa consists of the western portion of an archipelago between Hawaii and New Zealand. Volcanic in origin, the islands maintain an elevation that allows them to trigger the occasional shower or thunderstorm (as opposed coral based islands, which generally see fewer thunderstorms). Samoa is in the south Pacific, far enough south that in the Southern Hemisphere's winter, the occasional trough or cold front could brush the islands. It's rare, but it has happened.
Samoa's weather is forecast locally by the Samoa Meteorology Division. The biggest challenge, it appears, is retransmitting forecasts in both English and Samoan. On the left panel, they have stories that have made international headlines. Naturally, as an island nation, they are particularly worried about the idea of elevated sea levels thanks to global warming. The forecast tab at the top of the screen brings you to an interesting and effectively laid out forecast, first giving the "situation", a one line synopsis, then a more spelled out forecast for a given area. I like it. It's similar to how we do forecasts here, but more succinct and probably more accurate. A well done site for such a small nation.

Fayetteville to Charlottesville

Ryan — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:44:33 GMT

It's got Thomas Jefferson's Monticello, the University of Virginia... Why WOULDN'T you want to go to Charlottesville?

Fayetteville, North Carolina to Charlottesville, Virginia.

Charlottesville, Virginia

Ryan — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 17:19:14 GMT

This Tuesday will provide a welcome respite from all things Fay for me and anyone else who doesn't want to hear about it anymore. It's time for some forecastin' and we're heading for the hills of Virginia.

At 553PM, ET, Charlottesville was reporting a temperature of 87 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. Charlottesville's elevation was helping keep temperatures from climbing into the mid 90s as was being seen just east of town. Northern Virginia found itself on the southern fringes of a dominant ridge at the upper levels.
The two features seen in the upper flow are mostly closed lows, with the rest of the jet well north into Canada. This should keep most of the northeast stable, and will prevent Fay from drifting too far to the north. A trough, aided somewhat by a departing system over the Maritimes is modeled to develop at the surface tomorrow afternoon, and could generate some areas of showers where it intersects with moisture funneled north by Fay. The feature appears spurrious in the models, however, and the forecast will call for dry weather each of the next two days. A more northerly flow will mean cooler temperatures, and clear skies will lead to patchy morning fog.
Tomorrow - Sunny, High 83, Low 62
Thursday - Partly cloudy with AM fog, High 82, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow - A mainly sunny sky. High 85, Low 64
Thursday - Abundant sunshine. High 87, Low 61

AW: Tomorrow - Partly sunny High 84, Low 59
Thursday - Intervals of clouds and sunshine High 85, Low 57

NWS: Tomorrow - Sunny, High 84, Low 60
Thursday - Sunny High 84, Low 60

IC: Tomorrow - Mainly sunny. High 85, Low 64
Thursday - Mainly sunny. High 87, Low 61

This just in: V-W is clearly looking at a different Charlottesville, Virginia than everyone else. If the fog is as dense as the models are suggesting, and the northerly flow prevails, this could be a runaway victory. If not, Anthony will say mean things about my Alma Mater on Friday. Here is a look at the satellite for the area. Nary a hint of a Tropical Storm anywhere.

Fayding

Ryan — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 16:58:36 GMT

Tropical Storm Fay has been tricky to forecast. Before the weekend started, she was forecast to veer along the eastern Bahamas. Then, earlier today, it was forecast to make it's way all the way up to Cedar Key before making landfall. Now, Monday evening after Fay has already passed over Key West, it is becoming apparent that she will be making landfall near Naples. Beyond that, it's unclear where she will be going, however it appears that she will be climbing north through the Florida Peninsula.
The good news with this is that Fay will not have enough time over the open waters between Key West and Naples to intensify to a hurricane. The center of the hurricane passed over Key west and sustained winds of 30kts were reported, so it appears that strong winds will not be the primary threat for Florida, but continuous, torrential rain will both cause flooding and relieve some drought conditions across the state. Should it develop into a full hurricane, it will be the first hurricane to hit Florida since the beginning of this site, although the threat is certainly diminished, even as compared to 6 hours ago.

Tropical Storm Jay bears down on Indianapolis

Ryan — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 13:37:14 GMT

Apparently Cliff Nicholson and the staff at WTHR in Indianapolis know something we don't. For the rest of us, the danger we do see, Tropical Storm Fay continues to move just south of Cuba, and is expected to make landfall near Sarasota sometime Tuesday morning, maybe as a weak hurricane.

Elkhurt

Ryan — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 13:27:14 GMT

For the sake of anyone viewing V-W, I had to get this verification up so it was the first thing anyone saw instead of an obese Dominican in his underpants. The late night forecasting didn't bode well for me in Elkhart, but it worked out well for the Weather Service. I had called for isolated thunderstorms, and in fact, there were isolated storms, but they passed through Michigan and nary a drop fell in Indiana. Confound it.
Actuals: Friday - High 79, Low 53
Saturday - High 82, Low 51

Fay brings horror, things you can't unsee to the Dominican

Ryan — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 12:55:47 GMT

But seriously, as with most tropical systems that move through impoverished areas (and often those that aren't) Fay has led to some serious problems in the Dominican Republic, which you can read about from the same place I got the image from, USA Today.

Into the throes of hurricane season

Ryan — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 00:40:41 GMT

Late August into early September is typically the prime time for hurricane development. With delayed heating at the surface, late summer means warmer ocean temperatures, even though peak heating has already passed. The central Atlantic, between western Africa and the Caribbean is usually influence by oceanic currents that cycle in cool water, but by Labor Day, the area has seen enough sun that the entire stretch of ocean can sustain thunderstorm development in the form of tropical waves that ride the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ).
Generally, it takes 1-2 weeks for one of these waves to traverse the Atlantic and either fizzle or spin up into something more ominous. This is the typical M.O. for developing systems in the dog days of summer, so it's prudent to keep an eye on the Atlantic Basin this time of year.
Sure enough, Tropical Storm Fay strengthened as it passed north of Puerto Rico and is now clobbering the Dominican Republic. It's a good news/bad news situation for Fay. The good news is, she is taking a path mostly over land, crossing Hispaniola at this hour and expected to run the length of Cuba before it turns north, which will certainly lessen her chances of becoming anything particularly nasty. The bad news is, the front ("front") over the southeast has weakened considerably, which means it will not have the steering force it was originally thought to have, which means models have been trending for more a direct strike on the Florida Keys rather than skirting the Atlantic coast.
More good news, however, is that behind Fay, there aren't any waves that look particularly remarkable. After Fay, we're looking at at least a week or two of quiet tropical weather.