For those that don’t know, most of the site design decisions here at Victoria Weather have been suggested and implemented by our friend Donya, who has a much better eye for for pretty much everything than we do, not to mention a greater understanding for HTML design. Part of the exasperating problem with this past month’s hacking and rebuilding problem is that Donya has been unavailable. You see, on the day that the site went down, Donya was at the hospital, giving birth to her first child. Her baby son had some trouble early on, but his prospects now are good and they should all be able to go home by the end of next week. So from Anthony and I, we wanted to congratulate Donya and her husband Beau on their new addition, and hope for the best for all three. After the past week, I certainly can’t wait until Donya is back to 100%!
The worry with the forecast in Memphis was that things wouldn’t be quite as organized as one might hope when it came to the forecast. As it turned out, a solid line of thunderstorms set up over Arkansas (where tornadoes were seen around Little Rock) during the day Wednesday before it marched east and crashed into the greater Memphis area. And by “just after midnight” I mean they arrived at 12:03AM. There was no assorted shower activity ahead of the boundary as we all expected, and when it came through, it was much stronger than we had all though. 57mph winds and hail were all seen before 1AM, and then it all petered out before the sun rose. That’s the last time we underestimate an upper level low. Accuweather broke out of their doldrums and had the top forecast.
Actuals: Wednesday – High 75, Low 59
Thursday – 1.10 inches of rain with hail in thunderstorms, High 72, Low 53
Will we find ourselves in southern Georgia with today’s forecast, as we try to navigate our way into a complex upper level pattern afflicting the country.
At 1251PM, ET, PM, Columbus was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with clear skies. Just to the east, the most recent rake of rain and low clouds was continuing to drive eastward, allowing the Columbus area to see quickly rising temperatures. They found themselves 10 degrees warmer than their neighbors to the east. The overall upper pattern is still being driven by an upper low over the center of the country that extends it’s reach nearly from coast to coast.
Fortunately for the Southeast, there is only one more perturbation left in the flow of this upper level low, which will mean another round of showers and thunderstorms traversing the southeast tomorrow. If the warming trend continues today as it appears it will, there will be plenty of fuel in southwestern Georgia to generate a few significant thunderstorms around midday tomorrow. Expect some clouds and light showers on Saturday as the perturbation acts to pull down the upper low south into the Carolinas.
Tomorrow – Thunderstorms, especially in the early afternoon. Some may be severe. High 70, Low 53 (non standard
Saturday – Cloudy with areas of drizzle, High 59, low 45
TWC: Tomorrow – Scattered thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. A few storms may be severe. High 66, Low 54
Saturday – Partly cloudy. High 62, low 45
AW: Tomorrow – A shower or thunderstorm; cloudy in the morning, then times of clouds and sun in the afternoon high 70, Low 54
Saturday – Variable cloudiness High 61, low 47
NWS: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, High 69, low 51
Saturday – Isolated showers. Mostly cloudy High 62, Low 46
WB: Tomorrow – Showers and thunderstorms likely High 69, Low 50
Saturday – Mostly cloudy high 62, Low 46
We haven’t been able to fire one of these bad boys off in a while, but now we can look at Bay City, Michigan, the site of the return forecast. As if to show everyone that we aren’t going to take any funny business in this newest incarnation of Victoria-Weather, we marked our territory with an early victory. We made our greatest strides on Wednesday, when temperatures were unable to cool off overnight because of the increasing clouds, just like we envisioned. Huzzah!
Actuals: Tuesday – High 55, Low 30
Wednesday – .01 inches of rain, High 48, Low 37
Our first trip on the new version of the site takes us from Memphis to northern Indiana on a trip that will take us nearly 10 hours. Not a terrible day, but longer than we are used to. It’s a 611 mile trip that will see us travel at a rate of almost 62mph, slowed down by the intricate interstate systems of Memphis and Chicago. It’s going to be a soggy trip, so lets change those windshield wipers and be on our way.
It will have been miserable in Memphis for about 48 hours by the time we leave, so why should we expect anything different? A whirling mass of rain and clouds over the center of the country isn’t going anywhere. The most recent round will feature a stronger cold front that is primed to enter Memphis just after midnight tonight, bringing some thunderstorms into the mix. As we leave Memphis, we’ll be driving in the heaviest of the rain, but will see an abrupt clearing as we pass through Arkansas, Missouri and into Illinois. This front is the best chance we have at some legitimate clearing. It will actually be fairly dry, but probably cloudy most of the way through Illinois, a fairly fitting climate for anyone who is driving through rural Illinois. As we pull into the Kankakee area, we will run into the rain once again. The occluded system will have wrapped itself back east at Chicago, which means we’ll likely be in the rain the rest of the way to Elkhart. Not just a little bit of rain either, but a soaking, thorough rain. Better than snow.
Our first country post back from the oblivion that was last week’s disaster will take us to Romania. Romania, located in southeast Europe along the Black Sea, has a climate that is akin to that of the Mid-Atlantic here in the US. The geography is fairly similar. They are the same latitude, have a mountain range to the east, see many of the wettest storm systems come from the south because of a warmer body of water (the Gulf of Mexico and the Mediterranean, respectively) that tend to track to the northeast through more water (the Atlantic Ocean and the Black Sea), which leave the area dreary and foggy more often than anyone would like in the winter months. They even have the expansive plains to the north to aid in the trafficking of cold winter air during those months, giving the country all 4 seasons. The fundamental difference in geography demonstrate the differences in Romanian weather to the American Mid-Atlantic. The Balkan and Carpathian mountains are a little higher than the Appalachians, and the bodies of water are a little smaller, which, thought various means, leads to cooler, foggier conditions for Romania than what we would see stateside.
The Romanian Department of Environment and Forests is the bureau that monitors Romanian weather, with the National Meteorological Administration housed within. The Administration has 7 offices nationwide for localized forecast purposes, which is a fairly good coverage especially when you look at the distribution of weather service offices in the US. Their site has one of my favorite features, the radar mosaic. It also has an easily navigable set of forecast and warning maps. There are also links to their Romanian National Meteorology School, telling me that it is a state funded organization as well. Good for them to know where they are getting their meteorologists from, I suppose. It’s a good site, and a well constructed organization that has enough eyes out there to figure out the diverse weather of the country.
This time a week ago, I was supposed to be verifying Anthony’s forecast in Flagstaff. Alas, it is gone forever. Instead, we will get back on track with a forecast in Memphis.
At 1153AM, ET, Memphis was reporting a temperature of 57 with cloudy skies. A large upper low was winding itself into occlusion over the central Plains, and had pushed it’s initial round of rain to the east of town. A healthy dry slot head established itself over Arkansas and promised to bring Memphis a chance at some clearing skies this afternoon.
The upper low has become dissociated with the primary jet over the Gulf of Mexico, which will mean the system will languish and spin itself out rather than advance. Cloudy skies will remain over the center of the country until a stronger system can move through. There is a broader trough entering from the west and will gradually strengthen over the next 48 hours. The secondary low will take almost the same path as the original upper system, but will have upper support and will form a classic frontal structure. Expect a warm front to set up just south of Memphis tomorrow before gradually lifting north. This system will lead to rain for almost all of the eastern half of the country, but Memphis may be on the fringe of a slowly progressing secondary cold front and the dry slot for much of the day on Thursday.
Tomorrow – Rain possible, with the heaviest southeast of town, High 66, Low 57
Thursday – Chance of rain through the day, diminishing towards evening, High 70, Low 57
TWC: Tomorrow – Cloudy skies early, followed by partial clearing (evening t-storms). High 70, Low 58
Thursday – Slight chance of a thunderstorm High 74, Low 57
AW: Tomorrow – Clouds and breaks of sun; warmer with a shower or thunderstorm around High 76, Low 59
Thursday – Clouds yielding to sun (AM Showers) High 72, Low 59
NWS: Tomorrow – A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Mostly cloudy High 75, Low 59
Thursday – A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 74, Low 60
WB: Tomorrow – A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning…then a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. High 75, Low 59
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy in the morning…then becoming partly sunny. High 74, Low 60
This forecast is a mess. With some much whirling energy, clouds and rain, the temperatures will certainly bust at some point. High? Low? I don’t now. Always what you want to hear from a meteorologist, right? Radar shows the initial round of rain pushing out of town.
All right, here we go! Back into the science of meteorology! Again, I want to remind you all that we have a new feed, so update any account. Let’s get back to real live weather forecasting!
At 1153, Bay City was seeing clear skies and a temperature of 44 degrees. There was a rather dormant pressure pattern over the region, at least at the surface. The pattern aloft was a chaotic mess, with Arctic troughs swinging through Canada, and a subtropical jet plowing through the southeast. Riding the subtropical jet was a sinusoidal trough-ridge pattern that was both canceling any development over the Great Lakes and enhancing development over New Mexico.
The wave pattern will devolve through the coming 24 hour, leading to the upper trough over New Mexico to drift aimlessly to the north towards the Northern Plains. Eventually, it will mean light rain showers for the Bay City area, likely not until after noon or evening on Wednesday. A decided lack of energy will mean that any rain will be light and scattered.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 53, low 30
Wednesday – Increasing clouds, with late rain or drizzle, High 48, Low 35
TWC: Tomorrow – Partly cloudy skies. High 52, Low 30
Wednesday – Few showers. High 49, Low 35
AW: Tomorrow – Partly sunny High 52, Low 26
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy with a little rain; breezy and colder High 45, Low 30
NWS: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, High 52, Low 28
Wednesday – A 50 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy High 45, Low 34
WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 53, Low 28
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain. High 46, low 34
I figured that, since we will be going with the same forecast schedule as we intended to go with last week, it might be nice if I remind you of the week we are planning. One other thing, if you are reading this site using Google Reader, be sure to update your feed, as it has changed. Thanks for sticking with us!
Monday – Bay City, Michigan
Tuesday – Memphis, Tennessee
Wednesday – Road Trip, Memphis to Elkhart, Indiana
Thursday – Columbus, Georgia
Saturday – Myrtle Beach, South Carolina
As you can see, we’re not quite 100% yet. That said, we’re planning on resuming the schedule that was so rudely interrupted on Monday with the schedule that was supposed to have happened then. In the mean time, you may check in before then to see what we decide to do with the blog in terms of format, color scheme, etc. The whole thing is getting rebuilt, so we might as well toy with things, right?