Finally, a crazy forecast from Accuweather works!

Accuweather has… not been good for the past year and a half. Their two day forecasts are often divergent from the consensus, and they pay for it. Perhaps they are too busy drawing up hurricane forecasts for 2018. Today, however, their divergent forecast wasn’t so divergent, and verified as the best in Bridgeport! They correctly foresaw the cool Friday and slightly warmer Saturday, but most importantly, they tied with us for the top. Congratulations, Accuweather.
Actuals: Friday – .23 inches of rain, High 59, Low 43
Saturday – High 61, Low 41

Grade: A

Weather a factor in death of Polish president

The president of Poland, and other Polish officials were killed in a plane crash earlier today as he head into western Russia to honor the Katyn Massacre, which occurred 70 years ago during World War 2. Early accounts are that the cause of the crash is the dense fog permeating much of eastern Europe. The pilot, who likely couldn’t see the airport when landing, came in too low and clipped trees ahead of the runway, taking the plane down.
Much of eastern Europe is susceptible to dense fog for about half the year. The continent is surrounded by water, with warm water in the Mediterranean apt to filter north through the Adriatic and Black Seas much as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico finds its way into the center of the US. The continent is at a cooler latitude than most of the United States, and the cooler temperatures coupled with the higher humidity lead to often dense fog. When the area is ensconced in high pressure, wind is unable to mix out the fog, and it can be foggy for days if there is no injection of dry air. This is the situation presently in western Russia. Typically, it is not as grave a concern for Europeans, but in this instance, the Polish nation was met with tragedy.

The Week Ahead: 4/11/10-4/17/10

What a scattershot week this week. We’re covering as much geographic territory as possible, it appears.

Sunday – Anchorage, Alaska
Monday – Bridgeport, Connecticut
Wednesday – Forecast in Jefferson City, Missouri
Thursday – Road Trip from Jefferson City, Missouri to Gainesville, Georgia

Youngstown, Ohio

After all that Anthony time, I am officially back in the saddle for about 10 straight days. I’m going to get started today with Youngstown.

At 1233PM, ET, Youngstown was reporting a temperature of 37 degrees with light snow. A weak lake effect front had swept into the area in the last half hour, bringing the light snow from Cleveland southeast to Youngstown and dropping the temperature by about 5 degrees. An area of low pressure over Eastern Canada was introducing northerly flow, and the thaw of the Lake Erie ice has introduced the necessary moisture.
Fortunately, the pattern is more progressive than it has been over the winter, and a jet will establish itself over the Great Lakes, allowing high pressure to develop over the southeast, cutting off any additional moisture. Still, an area of low pressure over Canada will push a cold front through eastern Ohio Sunday evening, however with moisture stymied, expect only light showers to pass through on Sunday.
Tomorrow – Partly cloudy, High 60, Low 35
Sunday – Late afternoon showers, High 63, Low 45

TWC: Tomorrow – A mainly sunny sky. High 65, Low 34
Sunday – Few showers. High 64, Low 45

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny and warmer High 62, Low 31
Sunday – Mostly cloudy with a shower in the afternoon High 65, Low 31

NWS: Tomorrow – Sunny, High 62, Low 30
Sunday – A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy High 65, Low 40

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly sunny High 62, Low 30
Sunday – Partly sunny with a 30 percent chance of showers High 65, Low 40

A look at the radar shows the light flurries in the area.

Bridgeport, Connecticut

At 1:54pm EDT, the temperature at Bridgeport, CT was 58 degrees under fair skies. A strong cold front approaching from the west is going to bring some showers and thunderstorms to southern New England during the early morning hours on Friday. Most of the heavy stuff should have pushed off to the east by the time noon rolls around, but some lingering showers directly along the front could still threaten the region. By early evening though, the front will have blown through, with some spotty low clouds trailing behind it. A trough looks to swing through portions of the Northeast and New England on Saturday, but downslope winds should keep clouds at a minimum.

Friday: Morning rain/thunderstorms, drying out in afternoon. High 59, Low 43.
Saturday: Sunny, few clouds. High 58, Low 38.

TWC: Friday: Thunderstorms turning to showers. High 61, Low 48.
Saturday. Sunny and cooler. High 58, Low 40.

AW: Friday: AM rain, becoming cooler. High 58, Low 46.
Saturday: Partly sunny and breeze. High 59, Low 41.

NWS: Friday: Storms until noontime, then couple of showers before clearing. High 64, Low 46.
Saturday: Sunny and cooler. High 60, Low 40.

WB: Friday: 50% chance of rain. High 64, Low 46.
Saturday: Sunny. High 60, Low 40.

Here we see the cold front off to the west bearing down on New England. After it moves through, however, it should be a fairly enjoyable weekend!

Record Warmth

I mentioned in Salisbury‘s forecast that they had a chance at some record warmth for both days. Well, they tied it on Tuesday, the 88 matching what they got back in 1929. They nearly matched the feat on Wednesday as well, when they fell just 1 degree short of the record for that date. TWC narrowly edged out VicWx for the top spot, albeit everybody was a good amount off in the temperatures as it’s a little difficult to predict two straight days of near-record warmth.

Thursday: High 88 (T-1929 record), Low 56.
Friday: High 88, Low 67.

Forecast grade: D

March Forecaster of the Month

Our month began rather haphazardly, with the devious hacking from China that took us down for a week, but in the end, it turned into a neck and neck race to see who could claim supremacy as the top forecaster. In the end, it was The Weather Channel who was able to edge out their competition, to become the Forecaster of the Month

Nicer than SoCal

When Anthony put together his forecast for Rome on Sunday, he mentioned that I was off in sunny southern California. it wasn’t exactly WARM southern California. Temperatures in Rome reached the upper 80s for each day of the forecast period, making it an all together toasty experience in northern Georgia to begin April. Accuweather came through with the top forecast.
Actuals: Monday, High 87, Low 52
Tuesday, High 88, Low 50

Grade: A

Niger

Now that I am back, I figure I should probably write something. Nothing better, for my money, than a look at a far flung spot on the other side of the world, like, say, Niger, an arid nation in the the interior of northwestern Africa. Most of the nation lies in the Sahara, and is characteristically hot, dry and dusty. The lone exception is the southeastern corner, by the capital Niamey, where the Niger river flows. It’s not technically a desert in that corner, but it certainly is rather dry across the entirety of the country. They are represented in the World Meteorological Organization by the Direction de la Meteorologie Nationale. Their website is barebones, in French, and seemingly lacking in real time weather data, so I can’t provide a lot of additional details beyond introducing you to the organization.

Salisbury, Maryland to San Jose, California

For the 2nd straight time, we have a ridiculously long road trip to embark on, from sea to shining sea (so to speak). This one covers 2,959 miles. Hope you brought enough snacks.

DAY ONE
The high pressure ridge over the Eastern US will make for some near record warmth over the Northeast as we make out way past Baltimore and through Hagerstown, PA. Clouds will be on the increase as we make our way past Pittsburgh as low pressure over the Southern Great Lakes will push a vigorous cold front eastward. Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected over the Mid-MS Valley and into the Ohio Valley later in the day. Luckily, we’ll escape much of this activity until we make it to Cleveland, our 1st stop. Gusty winds are expected later on in the day as we make our way through the Appalachians. Some scattered showers are possible ahead of the front late in the evening, with some thunderstorms possible late at night as the front makes its way through OH.

DAY TWO
The cold front will be moving through Cleveland right around when we wake up, which could make for some interesting traffic as rain and some thunderstorms are expected during the morning rush hour. Once the front moves through, however, precip should trail off pretty quickly and gusty winds switch around from the northwest. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler today thanks to the new air mass spilling in from the Upper Midwest, and those gusty winds won’t be helping matters much either. In any event, rain showers should tail off by late morning as we make our way out of Indiana into northern Illinois. Quiet conditions should greet us for the rest of the day through Iowa City, IA, our stop for day 2.

DAY THREE
Alas, it’s a quiet day for us as we continue our tour of I-80. High pressure ridge has developed over the Central US as the lingering end of a cold/stationary front is found parked over the Dakotas. An area of low pressure attempts to weakly form along the front in the Northern Rockies, but will otherwise remain fairly benign. Some high clouds will greet us as we pull into Ogallala, NE for the end of the day.

DAY FOUR
An area of low pressure will develop over the High Central Plains during the day today as we’re making our way westward into southern Wyoming. The lingering cold/stationary front over the Northern Rockies will pretty much camp out where it is, however some increased shower activity will kick up over the Dakotas and northern WY. Some of these wandering showers might wet the windshield as we travel through southwestern WY, but will wind down during the late evening as the sun sets for the day. Some thickening clouds will be expected as we pull into Salt Lake City for the night.

DAY FIVE
An upper-level trough will be digging into the West Coast, spreading showers throughout the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies. Luckily, most of these showers should stay off to the north of I-80 as we continue our westward push out of SLC and into the high deserts of northern NV. Sunglasses probably won’t be needed today as clouds will continue to stream over the region ahead of the advancing trough, but shower and isolated thunderstorm activity should be mainly found over Oregon and Idaho throughout the day. Conditions should be nice as we pull into Reno, NV, our stop for the day. We’re almost there!

DAY SIX
As broad low pressure continues to develop over the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains, a cutoff area of low pressure will have swung well off the CA coastline before making an easterly turn towards Baja California. The main impulse of energy over the Pacific Northwest will shift into the Northern Rockies, and inbetween these 2 systems, a brief ridge of high pressure looks to develop over Central CA into Southwest OR. This couldn’t be timed any better, since it’ll keep the rest of our trip through the Rockies, through Sacramento, and into the Bay Area, finally arriving at our final destination! After two long trips like this, I think the family is going to not mind about those airline fees and just fly.

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