Providence, Rhode Island

Little Rhodey is our destination today. It’s a small state, but this is a big forecast! Ok that was bad.

At 751PM, ET, Providence was reporting a temperature of 64 degrees with mostly cloudy skies. A warm front, that has become mostly stationary, lie through the Mid Atlantic, aiding in the generation of the clouds seen in the area. The system generating these boundaries is formed by a jet coupling that is actually at the apex of a ridge, and will likely be deteriorating over the next several hours.
The system will dissipated and occlude as it shifts into New England, leaving the moisture associated with it stagnant and abandoned. Low clouds and light showers will be the story for the next two days in Rhode Island, after the showers associated with the warm front arrive in the early afternoon. Expect only light showers, but continually cloudy skies to begin the weekend.
Tomorrow – Occasional showers, High 64, Low 50
Saturday – Cloudy with drizzle, High 68, Low 55

TWC: Tomorrow- Cloudy with occasional showers. High 62, Low 49
Saturday – A few clouds High 69, Low 53

AW: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm around, High 64, Low 47
Saturday – Partly sunny and breezy High 68, Low 51

NWS: Tomorrow – A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Cloudy High 61, Low 49
Saturday – Mostly sunny, High 71, Low 54

WB: Tomorrow – Cloudy. A chance of showers High 61, Low 50
Saturday – Mostly sunny High 69, Low 54

A look at the satellite shows the dying system in the Great Lakes.

I’m Ron Burgandy?

I don’t think any San Diego forecast-verification cycle can be completed without a reference to Anchor Man. This is because there is rarely any substantial weather in San Diego, and it was a funny movie. I noted in the forecast that everyone but V-W had the same low temperature forecasts. My forecast, which was a degree or two cooler on each day, ended up being closer, and the difference between a last place finish and a tie at the top with The Weather Channel. It was very close, top to bottom.
Actuals: Tuesday – High 64, Low 56
Wednesday – High 69, Low 52

Grade: A

Little Rock, Arkansas

At 6:53PM EDT, the temperature at Little Rock, AR was 83 degrees under mostly cloudy skies. Today has been a relatively quiet day over the area as an area of low pressure lingers over the Central Plains. A stationary front extends eastward towards the Ohio Valley and trails a cold front down into the Central Plains, which is where the focus of more strong and severe thunderstorms have developed late this afternoon. This puts Little Rock is sort of a No Man’s Land as much of this energy has been riding up and around a ridge of high pressure that continues to camp out over the Southeastern U.S. Other than a deck of high clouds that are getting blown off the storms to the west, central Arkansas had a fairly pleasant, albeit humid, day today. Thursday looks to be nearly a repeat of today, with very little eastward progress of the cold front happening throughout the day. However, the ridge of high pressure will be breaking down tomorrow, allowing for the front to start shifting towards Little Rock in the late evening. While I’m tempted to hold off on the precip getting into the area until early Friday morning, some scattered activity could make it in during the late evening hours. Friday will be a far more soggy day, with the front sagging right over the region, and becoming a focus of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, some becoming strong to severe at times. Not like the South needs any more severe weather after the last couple of weeks or anything.

Thursday: Dry for most of the day, but 20% chance of a thundershower late in the evening. High 86, Low 68.
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms expected, some possibly strong. High 78, Low 67.

TWC: Thursday: 20% chance of showers. High 87, Low 70.
Friday: 60% chance of storms. High 79, Low 68.

AW: Thursday: 80% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 85, Low 70.
Friday: 60% chance of rain and thunderstorms through the day. High 80, Low 66.

NWS: Thursday: 20% chance of evening rain and/or thunderstorms. High 84, Low 70.
Friday: 30% chance of thunderstorms. High 79, Low 65.

WB: Thursday: 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 84, Low 70.
Friday: 40% chance of storms. High 80, Low 66.

We can see some impressive storms blow up off to the northwest and west of Little Rock, as evidenced by the popcorn like pops to some of those clouds, which are actually overshooting tops. Those occur when the updrafts in thunderstorms are so strong, they break into the stratosphere. In other words, those storms mean business.

Sunny Skies

With high pressure taking a strong hold over much of the Southeast to start the week off, the thunderstorms normally seen in abundance over the FL Peninsula have been taking a vacation. More specifically, that meant a couple of sunny and nearly cloudy free days for Port St. Lucie. Temperatures ticked upwards a couple of degrees Monday to Tuesday, with Weatherbug tying us here at Victoria Weather for the top spot.

Monday: High 84, Low 69.
Tuesday: High 87, Low 71.
Forecast grade: B

Tonga

For the second week in a row, we will be hitting a country with a small landmass. Tonga lies in the south Pacific, a primarily coral island cluster that can only be described as a tropical paradise. The temperature oscillates only a hair, from the upper 70s to about 90 in their summer months, which in the southern hemisphere is December to April. Rain is more abundant in the north, towards the equator thanks to the ITCZ’s constant presence. Their cyclone season is in their summer, from November to May. The threat for storms is real, though the common track for storms typically starts near Tonga before shifting away from the islands.
The Tonga Meteorological Service operates independently, unlike many Pacific Island nations, though they do get data from other nations, including Fiji and the United States. As with many nations where the weather rarely changes dramatically, their site is dedicated primarily to climate. With things generally quiet for Tongans outside of a stray cyclone, the primary role of the TMS is aviation forecasting for any air traffic moving in or out of the country.

Muncie, Indiana

I used to live in Indiana, back when I was in school. I can honestly say that I never went to Muncie.

At 253PM, ET, Muncie was reporting a temperature of 68 degrees with cloudy skies. A stiff westerly breeze is being seen behind a warm front that has swung through the area overnight. The system is rapidly occluding as it passes through the Midwest, and the associated cold front isn’t far behind. The clouds and previously seen showers will effectively stamp out the threat for thunderstorms in the area tonight, with the strongest storms likely south and west of Muncie.
A deep trough with weak bounding flow is swinging into the southern Plains through the next 12 hours, likely to develop the next system. The cold front associated with the low bringing rain to their east right now will connect with the developing system. The boundary will become mostly stationary from New Jersey to Nebraska, generally triggering showers and storms for the region along that boundary, including Muncie. As the system develops, the boundary over Indiana will lift north as a warm front, creating a brief warm up before showers and thunderstorms arrive in town again Thursday afternoon, with severe thunderstorms a distinct possible.
Tomorrow – Rain and isolated thunderstorms likely. High 70, Low 52
Thursday – Warm, with strong thunderstorms in the afternoon, High 82, Low 62

TWC: Tomorrow – Showers early then scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day High 69, Low 50
Thursday – Scattered thunderstorms possible High 82, Low 57

AW: Tomorrow – Cloudy with periods of rain and a thunderstorm in the afternoon High 68, Low 49
Thursday – Breezy and warmer with rain and a thunderstorm High 79, Low 61

NWS: Tomorrow- A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy High 69, Low 51
Thursday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy High 80, Low 63

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms. High 69, Low 51
Thursday – Breezy…warmer. Thunderstorms likely High 78, Low 58

Looks pretty sloppy for Muncie coming up, that’s for sure. Here is the well wrapped system over the Great Lakes.

Severe system spares Nebraska

Yesterday, a dynamic system moving into the Southern Plains organized and triggered a tornado outbreak over Oklahoma, the center of the tornado universe. In fact, the scientists at the National Weather Center, home to a combination of the Storm Prediction Center, NWS-Oklahoma City office, and a meteorological research campus of the University of Oklahoma saw a tornado out their window. They self reported! Unfortunately, this marks the second deadly outbreak of the year after last month’s twister that cut across Mississippi. 5 are dead and many more are injured in Oklahoma, most in Norman, just south of Oklahoma City where the NWC is located.
The images from this storm are incredible. We will look at some radar stills next week, when we don’t have forecasts scheduled every day. Speaking of forecasts, this is technically a verification post, which is why Nebraska was mentioned. Omaha was on the northern end of the system, and they mercifully only saw rain out of it. Temperatures were kept cool by persistent wind, and clouds. The rain didn’t start until Monday, which didn’t give Victoria-Weather the victory, it merely increased the margin of victory.
Actuals: Sunday – High 62, Low 38
Monday – .59 inches of rain, High 54, Low 48

Grade: B

San Diego, California

Ahh…. Sunny southern California. Let’s hope this is a lackadaisical, easy forecast.

At 953AM, PT, San Diego was reporting a temperature of 60 degrees with partly cloudy skies. An occluding system off the northern California coast was bringing some showers and clouds north of San Francisco, but San Diego was between systems, and enjoying a light onshore flow.
The system entering in northern California will be guided well north of San Diego. A weak cold front will pass through town overnight tonight, but likely will not be marked by any significant change in the weather. Expect morning clouds and haze, but not much else in terms of significant weather for the next two days.
Tomorrow – Mostly sunny, especially in the afternoon, High 66, Low 56
Wednesday – Cloudy early, pleasant in the afternoon, High 68, Low 54

TWC: Tomorrow – Some clouds in the morning will give way to mainly sunny skies for the afternoon. High 64, Low 57
Wednesday – Abundant sunshine. High 68, Low 55

AW: Tomorrow – Breezy with sunshine and patchy clouds High 65, Low 57
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and pleasant High 68, Low 55

NWS: Tomorrow – A 20 percent chance of showers before 11am. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, High 64, Low 57
Wednesday – Sunny High 67, Low 55

WB: Tomorrow – Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the morning…then mostly sunny in the afternoon High 64, Low 57
Wednesday –
Mostly sunny High 67, Low 55

And a look at the satellite shows a pretty quiet day for southern California. Note that EVERYONE went with the same lows (except us!). Incredible.

Omaha, Nebraska to Port St. Lucie, Florida

A 1552-mile trip from a land-locked state to the one with the 2nd most coastline in the country. Away we go!

DAY ONE
Well, it’s going to be a VERY interesting start to this trip. An area of low pressure is deepening and shifting into the Central Plains as Monday gets underway. Strong southerly flow out ahead of it combined with the increased pressure gradient will make for some very gusty southeast winds, to the tune of 30-40mph at times. And as if that wasn’t bad enough, a good swath of rain will push through Omaha during the morning hours. It’ll be a bit of slow going to start off the day as we push through the rain and the wind, but the most fun we’ll have during the day is outrunning the severe storms that are expected to develop over KS and OK before pushing eastward into MO. While we should be well ahead of the worst of the severe weather, there is still a decent chance of some strong thunderstorms out ahead of this activity during the afternoon hours as we push our way through central MO past St. Louis during the early evening hours. Better hope the windshield wipers are new, because they’re going to get a workout all the way to Mt. Vernon, our end to this rather ugly weather day. Or picturesque if you’re a family of storm chasers!

DAY TWO

Low pressure will have shifted towards the IA/MO border by the morning, with heavy rains shifting through central IL ahead of the frontal boundary. As we start our day heading towards southern IL and ultimately towards Nashville, it’ll be a slow beginning as the heavy rain and some thunderstorms shift through our path. Luckily, this won’t be too long lived as the front looks to shift off to the northeast by the late morning hours. We’re still going to be in the warm sector of these systems however, so with a good amount of instability in the region, scattered showers and storms will dot the TN Valley as we cruise through Nashville towards Chattanooga. Hopefully Nashville escapes these storms, as they’re still dealing with the devastating flooding that hit there last week. Storms should be on the downturn towards the evening hours, especially as we make our way past Atlanta and pull into Macon, the stop for Day Two.

DAY THREE

Finally! After two days of rather interesting weather, high pressure is controlling much of Florida and the Gulf Coast during midweek with a general east to west flow occurring over the state. There could be a couple of popcorn or seabreeze thundershowers over the central part of the FL Peninsula as we drive past Gainesville and Orlando during the afternoon and evening hours. A beautiful sunset should greet us upon our arrival into Port St. Lucie. With a couple extra days of good weather expected over the region, should be a great vacation for everybody along the sands of the Atlantic Ocean!

Port St. Lucie, Florida

Off to the Sunshine State today, where it looks like it should be in abundance to start the week!

At 653pm EDT, the temperature was 77 degrees under partly cloudy skies. Showers and thunderstorms were very much absent over the Florida Peninsula today, as a ridge of high pressure shifting over the region pretty much put the kibosh on any development. Not even the seabreeze, which almost acts like a mini-front and can ignite when the collide over the states’ interior, sparked anything today. Much of Florida will once again be under the influence of this high pressure for the next couple of days while a very large area of low pressure will make headlines in the central part of the country. Should the seabreeze kick up again during the next couple of days, any suspect storms should form off to the western half of the Peninsula, keeping Port St. Lucie on the dry side. Break out the sunscreen!

Monday: Mostly sunny, some afternoon clouds. High 83, Low 72.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. High 84, Low 70.

TWC: Monday: Sunny. High 83, Low 71.
Tuesday: Continued sunny. High 84, Low 74.

AW: Monday: Mostly sunny, breezy. High 81, Low 71.
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, continued breezy in afternoon. High 81, Low 69.

NWS: Monday: Mostly sunny. High 83, Low 74.
Tuesday: Sunny and windy. High 83, Low 71.

WB: Monday: Partly cloudy. High 82, Low 70.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. High 82, Low 71.

As you can see, no clouds of note to really speak of around the area, let alone precip. However, on a somewhat more interesting note, we can see the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream lift northward off the east side of the state and off towards the Carolina coastline. Behold the wonders of infrared technology!

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